I agree, if I had a lexus w/navigation, GPS wouuldn't be an issue. But I don't think many folks share your good fortune. In regards to loading time on your BB 8800, the speed is a factor of a number of factors including the strength of the signal and the service provider (AT&T weak point). The bottom line is 3G is coming for the iPhone and the current model can't be upgraded. And like the iPod, storage capacity will most likely increase on the next version as well. Honestly, if you had the choice of an iPhone today with 3G and perhaps more storage (and not even counting on GPS), would you keep todays iPhone or wish you had the 3G version? That's the quandry you'll face in 9 - 12 months. If $600 isn't an issue, then its non-issue.
In regards to battery life and 3G, that's also a misnomer. Granted it does eat more power but not 50%. I have a 2 year old LG 4650 w/3G(Verison) with extended battery that lasts 1-2 days between charges. And that's 2 Y.O. technology.
It's certaintly a tough choice to sit on the sidelines now but it would be tougher (for me) to run the same gauntlet 9- 12 months from now with the first iPhone in tow.
You make very good points in that will I be willing to schell out more $$ for the new and improved iPhone next year. Thing is, all my friends count on me to do this as I sell them myhand-me-downs for a very fair price.
I must admit that v2 with GPS and 3G will not be a no-brainer for me. You mentioned speed being dependent on many variables and that goes for 3G as well as EDGE. All I know is that I was afraid to go from EVDO (BB) to EDGE (BB) and have noticed almost no difference. I know, I know.. EVDO on a BB is not 3G.
I also know that out of EVERYONE I know who has a 3G smartphone, ALL of them would pretty much trade it for their old one due to mainly battery issues. My 8800 is good for at least 2 days, maybe 3. Everyone I know with a Blackjack or a Q is NOT stoked about their phone dying during the day.
Also, technically you can have 3G capable chipset that does not have 3G activated and it can be activated at a later date. I have heard this is not the case with the current iPhone but I have heard a lot of other things too.
..and on the Lexus thing.. that is my gf and she is the lucky one as it is her car. I am just lucky she is buying me an iPhone!