Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend

[bdj21ya]

What I think would be hilarious (as someone with VERY little love for AT&T/Cingular and their abuse of contract customers), is if we could somehow end up with numbers sold, and discover that a huge number of people are buying the iPhone, but finding ways to avoid Cingular.

However, realistically, I'd guess that no more than 180,000 - 200,000 MAX (more likely around 160,000) were sold in the first two days. I know I considered waiting longer to activate because of my dislike for AT&T, and I think a lot of people were waiting to activate (possibly many more than the small numbers who had problems activating) for other reasons. Getting the phone was an experience, and an assurance that you would have one when you were ready to activate (or hack as the case may be).

 

[kdarling]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But weren't there major issues with the activiation server that first weekend?

I would think that they're counting the initial activation requests, not when they actually got done.

The initial guesses at 500,000 sold over the weekend just never made sense. Figure 160 Apple stores. Even if each had 80 units a day (and many didn't), that's still only ~13,000 sales each day for them. Ditto for the 1600 AT&T stores, who probably only had 40 units each, for 64,000 sold a day.

So that would be 26,000 + 128,000 = 154,000 if all had max number of units. Much more in line with what was available for sale and activation.

I suspect that it'll also be revealed that 10-15% were returned within the grace period. Volume issues, poor cell coverage, and buyer remorse (kids who spent their allowance) will be the main reasons.

Still, not a bad sales amount by any count.

In any case, it just proves that most Wall Street analysts are not to be believed. They're in it to make money, and loved having Apple stock soar at first.

 

[fastbite]

Let's see if tomorrow we get more accurate numbers - iphone sold, rather than activated. And so far I'm glad, but surprised that AAPl is not taking a bigger hit. Cross fingers...

 

[syklee26]

AT&T's subscription number is not the right barometer for how many iPhones have been purchased.

you have to consider following things among many:

1. activation difficulties people were having. Especially in case of those who were porting numbers, I heard most of them were having problems.
2. people bought it to sell on eBay or on their store/websites
3. people who just didn't activate

I think this is a good time to buy AAPL.

I wonder if Piper will cut the price target back to $160 or something. some so called analysts make such a knee-jerk reactions it looks so noob.

 

[shawnce]

Thats just Friday (29), and Sat (30)?

Actually that would start at 6pm Friday the 29th and go to midnight Sat the 30th... so 30 hours (1 1/4 days). That is a rather small window of time to do activations.

On average they activated 4,867 phones per hour during that time (or 1.35 a second).

 

[abrooks]

Apple's 2nd Quarter earnings are expected on July 25th.

It'll be Apple's third quarter results, not second.

 

[bigandy]

I think it's quite impressive for a day-and-a-bit...

 

[fastbite]

AT&T's subscription number is not the right barometer for how many iPhones have been purchased.

you have to consider following things among many:

1. activation difficulties people were having. Especially in case of those who were porting numbers, I heard most of them were having problems.
2. people bought it to sell on eBay or on their store/websites
3. people who just didn't activate

I think this is a good time to buy AAPL.

I wonder if Piper will cut the price target back to $160 or something. some so called analysts make such a knee-jerk reactions it looks so noob.

I don't think its just the analysts that make knee-jerk reactions -- when it's about Apple we all make them.

 

[Clive At Five]

I don't think its just the analysts that make knee-jerk reactions -- when it's about Apple we all make them.

Yeah, but they have an audience. We just have each other.

People are riding financially on the advice of these analysts who are just full of it. They're playing with people's money.

-Clive

 

[Grimace]

In any case, it just proves that most Wall Street analysts are not to be believed. They're in it to make money, and loved having Apple stock soar at first.

Ummm.....no. Analysts cannot profit (own shares) from companies on which they report.

 

[Sobe]

$10 says that that figure doesn't include iTunes activations.

Note the language: "In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers."

 

[diamond3]

Here is what I have to consider.

1. Think of all the people that bought the iphone and then resold it on ebay, cl or whatever. There is no way they sold it and were activated that saturday. Thats probably a significant number.

2. People that bought out of the contract just to have the iphone.

3. The people that didn't get them activated until sunday

 

[Rojo]

Let's not forget all the iPhones that were bought on Apple's site those two days. Obviously those wouldn't get activated within that two-day timeframe, since they shipped much later.

I'm guessing a LOT of people avoided all the hoopla with lines, and decided to be patient and just order online -- which would ensure they got one. Unlike many AT&T and some Apple retail stores, I don't think Apple's site ever "sold out" those first few days...

So how many online orders do we think there was?

 

[Yankees 4 Life]

<Toilet Flushing> *Pours money down the drain* </Toilet Flushing>

Jesus Christ, how did this happen? I thought they would have at least 300k, seeing that there were about 1million activations in a 5 day period (friday-wednesday).

 

[MacsRgr8]

Maybe alot of the iPhones were smuggled out of the US, and being "activated" by the personal iPhone Activation Server hack....

 

[quigleybc]

yippee

now bring it to the rest of the world and make some real money

 

[George Bailey]

absurdly low

That number is absurdly low. Apple sold essentially every phone it had, and there's no way they had so few ready to go.

Yesterday I sold off half my AAPL position just to be conservative going into the earnings call, but now this morning I am putting it all back on at a discount.

This phone is so profitable, and they will sell so many, that AAPL will reach 200 before the end of the year.

 

[shawnce]

$10 says that that figure doesn't include iTunes activations.

Note the language: "In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers."

To the best of my knowledge all activations go via iTunes, AT&T folks didn't do it in the stores.

(I purchased mine at an Apple store on Sat. morning)

 

[Yankees 4 Life]

$10 says that that figure doesn't include iTunes activations.

Note the language: "In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers."

i have bad news for you, the only way to activate your iphone is through itunes, unless att did it for you, which you would still have to go through itunes...

 

[bdj21ya]

$10 says that that figure doesn't include iTunes activations.

Note the language: "In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers."

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the only people that could be said NOT to be activated through iTunes are maybe those who failed a credit check (a very small portion), and I think even they went through iTunes. That was just the only way to do it.

EDIT: Sorry, Shawnce & Yank beat me to it.

 

[Peace]

$10 says that that figure doesn't include iTunes activations.

Note the language: "In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers."

First off ALL iPhones are activated through iTunes.Regardless of where they were purchased.

I'm guessing the figure of 146,000 activations means AT&T REALLY dropped the ball trying to activate the phone.
There may have been only 146,000 activations but the number of phones sold is probably much higher.I'm guessing a good 40-70% of purchasers wern't able to activate their phone until late Sunday or Monday.Remember if a person tried to activate late in the evening and couldn't the AT&T support was closed after 9PM.
The only thing this really shows me is how screwed up the first two days of activations were.

 

[Yankees 4 Life]

That number is absurdly low. Apple sold essentially every phone it had, and there's no way they had so few ready to go.

Yesterday I sold off half my AAPL position just to be conservative going into the earnings call, but now this morning I am putting it all back on at a discount.

This phone is so profitable, and they will sell so many, that AAPL will reach 200 before the end of the year.

i'm jealous, i shouldve done the same, especially when the stock was down 5.60 this morning....

 

[bigraz]

Ummm.....no. Analysts cannot profit (own shares) from companies on which they report.

But there firms can!

 

[ddubbo]

146000

This proves that almost no one except Mac freaks and geeks with extra money will buy this beauty, but expensive and limited device. I suppose no more than 1 000 000 will be sold witin Q4, no more 5000000 untill June 29 2008. The hype is over.

 

[bdj21ya]

Here is what I have to consider.

1. Think of all the people that bought the iphone and then resold it on ebay, cl or whatever. There is no way they sold it and were activated that saturday. Thats probably a significant number.

2. People that bought out of the contract just to have the iphone.

3. The people that didn't get them activated until sunday

Number 2 would have to be a fairly small number, since you "had" to activate the phone to make it do anything (even iPod functions). I really doubt that any significant number of people were hacking the iPhone to get around activation.