Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend

[Rojo]

I wonder if this will force Apple to give out the TOTAL sales numbers of the iPhone so far (not just the first two days worth, which we're likely to find out tomorrow). This item will surely be picked up by the media, with the inevitable "iPhone launch a big failure" articles to follow. Apple might need to give a more exact number -- even if it's not a nice, clean, impressive-sounding number like 500,000 or 1 million -- just to shut people up.

I'm guessing once we DO find out the exact number, it's going to be a pretty decent figure.

 

[MacSA]

Now the iPhone is a total flop... they can get back to concentrating on computers and software instead of this gimmicky c***

 

[mullman]

I bought my phone on iDay at the local AT&T Store. Had to jump through all the business account hoops and could not get it activated until Sunday. Rolling all lines to my personal responsibility.

Monday I bought one for the wife.

The next week my brother and his wife bought a pair of iPhones.
A few days later my father called me from his new iPhone (also bought one for my mother).

Then a few friends in town bought them

That is 9 phones in my social network activated after AT&T's quarter ending.

I am very interested to see what Apple says tomorrow, but IMHO 147,xxx in basically a day and change (Fri night + Saturday) is an excellent start.

 

[akac]

Even if each had 80 units a day (and many didn't),

The AT&T Stores around here had about 30 units each in Austin, and the Apple Stores had about 800 units each here.

 

[ddubbo]

Not much now, but that Sunday/Monday, there were loads! One guy even put his up for $21,000,000, but he also said that it was b/c he wanted more hits on his.

And always rember, # of activations != (does not equal) the total # iPhones sold

Lets see. I don't believe that people who waited hours in lines to buy one, have been waited for its activation. Let assume that max 5% of people couldn't activate this + 5% didn't do it it deliberately for any reason. With best estimation you can see that no chance that 180000 were sold.

 

[macnews]

Bizarrely - it seems in the market "good" or "poor" sales are almost irrelevant; what's important is "more than" or "less than" expectations. Expectations were very high, and now Apple's share price is suffering.

Expectations are how the market works and builds them in to the share price. Reality also plays a factor which is what you are seeing now with Apple's share price dropping. The expectation was bigger sales, perhaps in the 300k-400k range. When the initial reports came out of 500k-750k of sales the price went up because the extra 100k-350k or so was not factored in to the price. Now with reports of only 150k of activations, which they are likely relating to sales, the price drops.

Like it or not this is how the market works. Which is exactly why I avoid day trading, it is just crazy with the swings. When you buy stock it is best to invest in the long term, and long term I think Apple is still a good buy.

 

[defeated]

always rember, # of activations != (does not equal) the total # iPhones sold

well, of course i know they are different. but whats the discrepency? 500,000?! i think not!

 

[DiamondMac]

I think that number is VERY impressive.

I am sure the number will get much better if we added on the rest of the week.

People think of 200k-300k-400k but those numbers come from a week's worth of sales.

 

[ddubbo]

I think this also weakens Jobs vs european cell industry. Now everybody understands that iPhone is just a gadget , and not a money making machine

 

[Peace]

well, of course i know they are different. but whats the discrepency? 500,000?! i think not!

I don't believe the difference is 500,000 for 2 days but I also don't believe only 2-5% of purchasers couldn't activate.Otherwise AT&T would have said how many phones were sold in their report.
I think AT&T is trying to cover their *** over dropping the activation ball.

 

[applekid]

Maybe we can be optimistic about the units sold, but that just means everybody else bought their iPhone to use as an iPod... Assuming, of course, that activation amounts were still low up to this point.

In other words, Apple, just give us the iPhone interface in an iPod and be done with it.

 

[eazyway]

Have to wait for the Apple spin on the numbers.

146,000 activations. No mention of the number of sales in the press releases or the ATT conference call. Plus no questions related to the numbers at all. Very Strange I thought. Does ATT and Apple differentiate between in store ATT activations and iTunes activations. (even though the are likely both done through some form of iTune system) Did Apple prevent ATT from issuing any iPhone sale data from ATT. Will the only numbers we hear be activations.

Sales of iPhones at the Apple store alone should have been higher than 147,000 if the average line size and sale rate had any validity. Did ATT have an average of 50 or 100 phones per store??

 

[Peace]

146,000 activations. No mention of the number of sales in the press releases or the ATT conference call. Plus no questions related to the numbers at all. Very Strange I thought. Does ATT and Apple differentiate between in store ATT activations and iTunes activations. (even though the are likely both done through some form of iTune system) Did Apple prevent ATT from issuing any iPhone sale data from ATT. Will the only numbers we hear be activations.

Sales of iPhones at the Apple store alone should have been higher than 147,000 if the average line size and sale rate had any validity. Did ATT have an average of 50 or 100 phones per store??

For the THIRD time.
The ONLY way to activate the phone is through iTunes.There were no activations at ANY store.

 

[shawnce]

well, of course i know they are different. but whats the discrepency? 500,000?! i think not!

Wow you expected Apple and AT&T to sell over 600,000 iPhones in 30 hours (actually about 16 hours if count when the store happened to be open) let alone have that many available at launch? Talk about crazy expectations.

Amazingly at the AT&T store I went to it took them on average 12 minutes to process a sale of a single an iPhone ... talk about inefficient (should have been as simple as get box, get credit card, swipe card, sign and leave).

 

[Sobe]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the only people that could be said NOT to be activated through iTunes are maybe those who failed a credit check (a very small portion), and I think even they went through iTunes. That was just the only way to do it.

EDIT: Sorry, Shawnce & Yank beat me to it.

So what are people doing with many hundreds of thousands of iPhones then...doing modern art?

 

[defeated]

I don't believe the difference is 500,000 for 2 days but I also don't believe only 2-5% of purchasers couldn't activate.

well, now look back, first two days' sales was estimated as high as 700,000 by multiple sources, can we blame the dissappointment some investors feel?

ps. if you don't believe other people's #, feel free to guess your own

 

[csimmons]

I would think that they're counting the initial activation requests, not when they actually got done.

The initial guesses at 500,000 sold over the weekend just never made sense. Figure 160 Apple stores. Even if each had 80 units a day (and many didn't), that's still only ~13,000 sales each day for them. Ditto for the 1600 AT&T stores, who probably only had 40 units each, for 64,000 sold a day.

So that would be 26,000 + 128,000 = 154,000 if all had max number of units. Much more in line with what was available for sale and activation.

I suspect that it'll also be revealed that 10-15% were returned within the grace period. Volume issues, poor cell coverage, and buyer remorse (kids who spent their allowance) will be the main reasons.

Still, not a bad sales amount by any count.

Don't forget sales through the Apple Online Store. These obviously won't factor into the sales based AT&T numbers due to the reported 2 - 4 week delivery time, but they are still sales.

Don't panic. It's all good.

 

[Peace]

Call me a fanboy in denial if you want but I pose a question.

Could the 146,000 activations AT&T reported be referring only to AT&T sold phones.Leaving out the phones sold at Apple stores?

 

[Alloye]

No, it's just simple math. There were ~1760 stores selling it those two days. To have sold 500,000 units, each store would've had to sell about 140 units a day. Yet we all know from actual visits and the news, that most had only 40-80 units a day... if even that, since many were "sold out" the first day.

The problem with simple math is that it only works when the variables are correct.

Truth be told, it was only the AT&T stores that had limited initial quantities in the 40-80 range. Apple stores had considerably more iPhones available with some of the flagships having several thousand. If all the stores only had 40-80 units, the whole thing would have been over in ten minutes on Friday evening. Instead, Apple was able to keep up with long lines and meet demand until Sunday afternoon.

Bottom line: I think AT&T had a much bigger activation meltdown on opening weekend than they are admitting.

 

[whatever]

It does appear that the iPhone is going to a major flop. Apple's greed for not going with Verizon and 3G is going to cost them big. Yeah Apple got a percentage of the monthly bill with At&t, but this decision is going to cost Apple billions.

That's what happens when you get greedy folks!!

What are you talking about.

For starters the iPhone is already considered a success!

Several weeks after it's launch people are still talking and more importantly buying them. Apple will be able to take iPhone 3G, when the time is right. The decision not to go partner with Verizon was also a good decision. Does Verizon do things better than AT&T today. Yes, but is AT&T willing to work with a partner (something that Verizon was not interested in doing) and define the future of this market space? The answer is a resounding "YES". Sure Apple and AT&T could have delayed the launch of the iPhone to hammer out some problems, but they choose not to.

And some may say that early adopters will get burnt, while every adopter I've spoken to has said it's well worth it.

Trying to do what's best for your shareholders, employees, customers is not being greedy.

 

[rjwill246]

Love these comments

It does appear that the iPhone is going to a major flop. Apple's greed for not going with Verizon and 3G is going to cost them big. Yeah Apple got a percentage of the monthly bill with At&t, but this decision is going to cost Apple billions.

That's what happens when you get greedy folks!!

Interesting take on things. Not only is Apple not greedy, they have worked darn hard to give investors and consumers alike a fantastic array of superb products. Greed has nothing to do with not going 3G. Totally unrelated.

And, I assume you haven't been into an Apple store in the last day or two and seen the action around the iPhone... some 3 weeks later. It is still amazing to see.

Let's assume people began activating around 8pm 'til midnight Friday: then from 6 am 'til midnight Saturday, assuming folks didn't stay up all night. That's 22 hours of activation time. Even at the "low" rate of 146,000 phones, that equals one phone activated every half second! We shall certainly find that the weekend sales exceeded 146,000.

 

[shawnce]

So what are people doing with many hundreds of thousands of iPhones then...doing modern art?

Huh? I think you misread his statement.

 

[eazyway]

For the THIRD time.
The ONLY way to activate the phone is through iTunes.There were no activations at ANY store.

That is obvious. But everyone bought at an ATT store went through a credit check and would have been allocated to an in store ATT sale.

 

[mickeymikey]

Activations don't exactly equal sales. I personally know of five phones that were purchased on 6/29 that weren't activated for several days/a week later.

In addition there were, what, ten-thousand auctions on eBay the first weekend - some with more than one phone. I wouldn't be surprised if the activation number was 1/2 of the sales number or less.

 

[shawnce]

That is obvious. But everyone bought at an ATT store went through a credit check and would have been allocated to an in store ATT sale.

What does that have to do with an activation? AT&T reported activations not what they sold.