Actually I still feel it will be very successful. I am one who thinks it is great but am waiting for version 2. I think many are waiting for the next gen with a slighly lower price or more memory. Just like after the first iPods...
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Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend
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Actually I still feel it will be very successful. I am one who thinks it is great but am waiting for version 2. I think many are waiting for the next gen with a slighly lower price or more memory. Just like after the first iPods...
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
I'm as big an Apple fan as anybody, but let's get a few "what ifs" right...
AT&T issuing information likely to affect their stock price is not going to hide positive information. If more phones had been activated in that weekend, they would have announced that.
iPhones purchased at Apple stores still have to be activated through AT&T to be fully functional. So, we're not seeing just phone activations for phone purchased at AT&T stores, we're seeing ALL activations whether they were purchased at AT&T or Apple Stores (or from a guy trying to scalp one on the street). Any and all activations for those 2 days are in the 146K number
In spite of this "bad" news, Apple stock is only down about $4.40/share as I write this. These days it can rise or fall that much without this kind of news. Welcome to tech stock volatility.
And a few other observations:
The scalpers market never materialized. Go check "completed" ebay auctions and you'll be lucky to find any auctions that came in much above retail. In a scarcity (demand exceeded supply) scenario, there would be stories of people paying $2K for an iphone. That hasn't happened. So, either Apple took an educated strategic gamble and manufactured so many iphones that they've generally been able to match demand, OR demand fell short of supply. Note that you can go to Apple.com right now and see that almost all stores are pretty-well stocked with iphones not even 1 month after release. Is that a sign of weaker demand or an abundant supply?
Did Apple sell perhaps a lot more iphones that first weekend than 146K? It's probably safe to say yes with some confidence. The magic question is exactly how many. I would guess that the majority of people that stood in lines/camped out to buy one, probably did try to activate their new toy at the earliest possible opportunity. Its hard for me to imagine many people buying the "most significant new product launch in 30 years" and then setting it on a desk or something and waiting for a few days to try to actually use it.
The non-activating crowd might be the would-be scalpers, who discovered that they couldn't ebay their way to iphone profit success, along with a few people that had the patience to own an iphone but not activate it for a few days, and the gift-giving crowd (also with patience). How big was this group of 1st weekend buyers? Maybe when Apple reports, we'll get a clearer picture.
AT&T issuing information likely to affect their stock price is not going to hide positive information. If more phones had been activated in that weekend, they would have announced that.
iPhones purchased at Apple stores still have to be activated through AT&T to be fully functional. So, we're not seeing just phone activations for phone purchased at AT&T stores, we're seeing ALL activations whether they were purchased at AT&T or Apple Stores (or from a guy trying to scalp one on the street). Any and all activations for those 2 days are in the 146K number
In spite of this "bad" news, Apple stock is only down about $4.40/share as I write this. These days it can rise or fall that much without this kind of news. Welcome to tech stock volatility.
And a few other observations:
The scalpers market never materialized. Go check "completed" ebay auctions and you'll be lucky to find any auctions that came in much above retail. In a scarcity (demand exceeded supply) scenario, there would be stories of people paying $2K for an iphone. That hasn't happened. So, either Apple took an educated strategic gamble and manufactured so many iphones that they've generally been able to match demand, OR demand fell short of supply. Note that you can go to Apple.com right now and see that almost all stores are pretty-well stocked with iphones not even 1 month after release. Is that a sign of weaker demand or an abundant supply?
Did Apple sell perhaps a lot more iphones that first weekend than 146K? It's probably safe to say yes with some confidence. The magic question is exactly how many. I would guess that the majority of people that stood in lines/camped out to buy one, probably did try to activate their new toy at the earliest possible opportunity. Its hard for me to imagine many people buying the "most significant new product launch in 30 years" and then setting it on a desk or something and waiting for a few days to try to actually use it.
The non-activating crowd might be the would-be scalpers, who discovered that they couldn't ebay their way to iphone profit success, along with a few people that had the patience to own an iphone but not activate it for a few days, and the gift-giving crowd (also with patience). How big was this group of 1st weekend buyers? Maybe when Apple reports, we'll get a clearer picture.
Bringing up an old post...
It's not really bizarre at all. Stock prices are based on expectations of performance. If people expect that Apple will sell one million iPhones, that figures in to what they think the stock is worth, and the price goes up. If it turns out that Apple sells 900,000 units, the stock price will go down because the valuation of the stock was based on unit sales of 1MM. So when stock prices fall because expectations were not met, it's not a condemnation of the normative goodness of the news.
These numbers do NOT reflect MULTIPLE iPhone activations under the same account - only individual households or names. - some businesses purchased a few dozen & some familes purchased 2 or more.
I don't get what all of the disappointment is about. 146,000 phones in 30 hours (1.25 days). Extrapolating that's 730,000 iPhones in seven days. That's about what the rumors were saying as far as numbers go.
That's assuming a one-to-one correspondence between phones sold and phones activated. Obviously in the first 30 hours that's not going to be the case. AT&T was basically giving almost every customer a 24-hour brush off to lighten the customer service burden. I'm sure those customers who faced a 24-hour brush off are not counted in the 2% of activation issues (unless it still didn't work after the 24 hours). Anyway, the activations in the first 1.25 days would lag the sales regardless. They might catch up in those few hours between stores closing and midnight on the 30th, but there were most certainly customers who didn't get activated in that short window of time.
That's assuming a one-to-one correspondence between phones sold and phones activated. Obviously in the first 30 hours that's not going to be the case. AT&T was basically giving almost every customer a 24-hour brush off to lighten the customer service burden. I'm sure those customers who faced a 24-hour brush off are not counted in the 2% of activation issues (unless it still didn't work after the 24 hours). Anyway, the activations in the first 1.25 days would lag the sales regardless. They might catch up in those few hours between stores closing and midnight on the 30th, but there were most certainly customers who didn't get activated in that short window of time.
I am the first to admit that I don't understand the scalping idea, but I just checked eBay a few minutes ago for completed listings and found 36 have closed just today for over retail (some for well over and 2 at $1100) and about an equal number that were bid up well over retail but did not sell. I am amazed that so many people are paying over retail for a product that they can get at a local store. I don't get it.
The analyst's report cited at AppleInsider is worse news by far. The report noted a "significant decline" in iPhone demand over the past 10 days.
I'll be curious to see how much Apple says about the iPhone in the earnings announcement tomorrow. If that analyst's report is wrong, Apple will refute it.
With only two days of iPhone sales in the quarter and Apple reporting incremental iPhone sales over a two-year period, the impact on the previous quarter will be negligible. Still, if the iPhone is leveling out earlier than expected, I would not be surprised to see Apple talk about iPhone sales beyond the first weekend.
I'll be curious to see how much Apple says about the iPhone in the earnings announcement tomorrow. If that analyst's report is wrong, Apple will refute it.
With only two days of iPhone sales in the quarter and Apple reporting incremental iPhone sales over a two-year period, the impact on the previous quarter will be negligible. Still, if the iPhone is leveling out earlier than expected, I would not be surprised to see Apple talk about iPhone sales beyond the first weekend.
I should add that we don't even know what time AT&T's fiscal quarter ends. If it's 24:00 UTC on June 30th, then that's 18:00 EDT. That's exactly one day after the phone sales began at 18:00 EDT on June 29th. Extrapolating out exactly one days sales to seven days and we have: 1,022,000 iPhones in seven days. Still disappointed?
I want an iPhone but this is exactly why I waited for Gen 2...now maybe gen 3???
"Given the weakness in demand, the analyst said he wouldn't be surprised to see AT&T and Apple step up their marketing efforts around iPhone in the near future. He added that "checks suggest Apple is actually looking to introduce a 3G version of the iPhone for the U.S. market in November, ahead of the holiday season and earlier than currently expected."
Kidron cited a recent in-house survey of iPhone buyers that suggested the key shortcoming of the current iPhone model is its poor data connectivity through AT&T's yesteryear EDGE network. "This isn't a surprise," he explained, "and Apple's CEO Steve Jobs admitted the iPhone's cellular connectivity can use an improvement. We now believe the 'improvement' could come soon."
"Given the weakness in demand, the analyst said he wouldn't be surprised to see AT&T and Apple step up their marketing efforts around iPhone in the near future. He added that "checks suggest Apple is actually looking to introduce a 3G version of the iPhone for the U.S. market in November, ahead of the holiday season and earlier than currently expected."
Kidron cited a recent in-house survey of iPhone buyers that suggested the key shortcoming of the current iPhone model is its poor data connectivity through AT&T's yesteryear EDGE network. "This isn't a surprise," he explained, "and Apple's CEO Steve Jobs admitted the iPhone's cellular connectivity can use an improvement. We now believe the 'improvement' could come soon."
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
adzoox, how do you know that these numbers do not reflect multiple activations under the same account? AT&T is going to want to publish the biggest number they can possibly show, because this release is all about propping up their (not Apple's) share price. Unless there is some legal issue with calling 2 phone activations under one account 2 activations, they're going to count them as 2. As I understand it, the 146K was number of "activations" not number of "customers". I'd assume "activations" would be tied to individual phones even if I personally bought all 146K of them and activated them.
Can you or anyone solidly tell me that that is not correct?
Can you or anyone solidly tell me that that is not correct?
att
For Apple's good and for consumers in general, I can only hope that there will be bad news with IPhone sales. The choice to force consumers into one service provider should not be rewarded. As much as I like the phone, I decided not to buy one because I value my freedom as a consumer. Apple would not have gone with ATT or any other company if Apple users were not acting like a bunch of brain washed children. Apple too needs motivation and direction. If they think they could sell anything they make, just because it's branded Apple, they will get lazy too.
And using Itunes to activate the Iphone... I don't know. Itunes is good for organizing but horrible for everything else. I can't believe Apple never fixed the audio quality issue on ITunes. Has anybody else noticed that playing a music file quth quicktime player sounds a lot better than the same file playing in ITunes?
For Apple's good and for consumers in general, I can only hope that there will be bad news with IPhone sales. The choice to force consumers into one service provider should not be rewarded. As much as I like the phone, I decided not to buy one because I value my freedom as a consumer. Apple would not have gone with ATT or any other company if Apple users were not acting like a bunch of brain washed children. Apple too needs motivation and direction. If they think they could sell anything they make, just because it's branded Apple, they will get lazy too.
And using Itunes to activate the Iphone... I don't know. Itunes is good for organizing but horrible for everything else. I can't believe Apple never fixed the audio quality issue on ITunes. Has anybody else noticed that playing a music file quth quicktime player sounds a lot better than the same file playing in ITunes?
Less than zero, in fact. Where were those complaints when the Razr was launched exclusively with Cingular and the LG Chocolate was launched exclusively with Verizon? Why is it only bad when Apple does it?
Well I guess it is bad cause it is Apple. From what I am told: Apple doesn't force you to sign up with Comcast to get internet service when you buy a computer, Apple doesn't force you to buy songs from iTunes to be able to use your iPod or
TV.In the ideal world Apple would have set themselves up as a MVNO and offered a quad band dual tech (GSM & CDMA) phone, and made agreements with both Verizon and AT&T to be able to use both networks.
I am the first to admit that I don't understand the scalping idea, but I just checked eBay a few minutes ago for completed listings and found 36 have closed just today for over retail (some for well over and 2 at $1100) and about an equal number that were bid up well over retail but did not sell. I am amazed that so many people are paying over retail for a product that they can get at a local store. I don't get it.
The first week or so, I saw a ton of eBay auctions, but almost zero actual sales.
Now that there are tools to unlock everything except the phone/SMS sections, eBay sales are up... I would guess because people outside the USA are buying them as just iPod / browser devices.
They might plan to activate them later on, or not. But they feel the need to own one... now.
Does it bother you that most carriers make products that are proprietary then? From auto repair parts to vacuum cleaner bag replacements to everything in between, I think it's somewhat disengenuine to expect every device to have the same level of interoperability as, say, linux. Most people in the US are stuck with one service provider for electricity, water, cable, natural gas, and in some cases even food (small towns often have only one grocery store). Some times you have to accept a limited monopoly to ensure quality of service.
Actually the troubles were very minor and were fixed pretty quickly.
Apple has made a mistake with the iPone. Not that it is not a great product but it does not fit into the world of cell phones and even smart phones.
Unless AT&T is going to start paying for the phones so that people can get them free or cheap, just like all other cell phones and Smart phones, the sales will never be through the roof.
I can go out today, sign a 2 year deal, just like with AT&T and get a FREE Blackberry, FREE!
This business model will fail for apple.
That's like saying Apple would report iPhone sales by the number of buyers, not units sold.
Ah stock advice on MacRumors.. calling my broker now
10 PUT options has already netted me $2K. I'm selling 9 now and keeping 1 for tomorrow. Figure I'll double up on the house's money tomorrow for a total profit of $3K or $4K. Not bad for a couple days work. Been a while since I've "gambled" like this. Fun fun fun.
wtf mate! my AAPL stock is down $8.00!!!!!! What the hell is this! Why did ATT have to release this info before apple released sales figures? Jesus Christ can't the shareholders wait until apple gets its info in tomorrow?
Based on users on MacRumors these "troubles" were NOT "very minor" nor were they fixed quickly.For most people trying to change over from a different carrier it took anywhere from 18 hours to 3 days to activate.