The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[sublunar]

The problem is, that Apple is slowly moving away from "cheap" computers. It can happen, that in 2-3 years, there wont be any new Apple computer, that is under 999 $.

And it is also possible, that the Mac mini gets totally replaced by Mac Studio... the starting price tag of that is right now around 1999 $.
So no cheap computer for the plebs anymore.

Maybe Macbook Air M1 in 2025 for 999 $.

I can't see how Apple wouldn't be able to provide cheap entry level machines, even if they have to re-use budget CPUs like the M1 later down the line. Don't forget that Apple are using an M1 in a device as cheap as an iPad Air.

Surely stands to reason that the classic iPad may even get M1 in years to come if they don't choose to go with an A16 or later when the time comes.

 

[CWallace]

I wonder if Apple are doing this to keep the power draw consistent - so it doesn't drain battery quicker in the laptops? So maybe it's not about performance but about battery life?

That could very well be a reason, as well, in addition to keeping ambient noise minimal. While this power draw is not a concern on desktops, at least with the M1 family Apple kept the "wattage throttling" in place per Max Tech's tests of the M1 Max and M1 Ultra in the Mac Studio so this might be built into the microcode and therefore present regardless of application and cooling capacity (since the Mac Studio is certainly not cramped for thermal headroom in Max and Ultra form).

Away from laptops though, it strikes me that the existing M1 Mac mini case - complete with overspecced power supply) should be able to sustain a higher power draw - or would Apple want to keep the benchmark figures consistent across all M2 lines?

The M1 was clocked to 3.2GHz in the Air, the MacBook Pro and the mini so my guess is the M2 Mac mini will be in the same ~3.5GHz range as the MBP (and almost certainly the Air).

 

[eelpout]

The very next year the first Intel Mac Mini came out. Given the issues the M2 seems to have with heat Apple may scrap a redesign of the mini and simply put an M2 in in the current design as the fan is designed for the space heating Intel CPU.

gosh darn it, you made me click on something from Max Tech.

 

[Maximara]

Over a 100c, ouch! At least it’s correctable if you run the fan manually like with Mac Fan Control. I run my 2018 Mini fan at a constant 3000rpm and I don’t even hear it. At full blast it still isn’t that loud.

Hopefully Apple realizes this is a bad thing and fixes the software - you really don't want the CPU running that hot.

 

[Heat_Fan89]

Hopefully Apple realizes this is a bad thing and fixes the software - you really don't want the CPU running that hot.

Agreed, it’s never a good thing for any component to run that hot.

 

[sublunar]

Hopefully Apple realizes this is a bad thing and fixes the software - you really don't want the CPU running that hot.

Not sure Apple will agree, they prioritise user experience over cpu cooling (and therefore fan noise)

 

[gusping]

Not sure Apple will agree, they prioritise user experience over cpu cooling (and therefore fan noise)

They 100% won't change it. Their attitude to thermals is horrible, unfortunately.

 

[EugW]

In his last newsletter, Mark Gurman repeated his M2 Pro Mac mini rumours, along with rumours of the expected M2 model.

 

[Nicole1980]

Then I suggest you patiently wait for your M1 Pro Mac mini. Meanwhile something tells me i'll be buying an M2 mini before they release your M1 Pro mini.

Ha, looks like I'll get the M2pro mini instead!

Gurman: Apple Planning M2 Pro Mac Mini, New Apple TV With A14 Chip, Revamped HomePod With S8 Chip, and More

In the latest edition of his Power On newsletter for Bloomberg, Mark Gurman outlined additional M2 Macs on Apple's product roadmap, including new...

www.macrumors.com

 

[Heat_Fan89]

Ha, looks like I'll get the M2pro mini instead!

Gurman: Apple Planning M2 Pro Mac Mini, New Apple TV With A14 Chip, Revamped HomePod With S8 Chip, and More

In the latest edition of his Power On newsletter for Bloomberg, Mark Gurman outlined additional M2 Macs on Apple's product roadmap, including new...

www.macrumors.com

We shall see. It's not like Gurman has a flawless track record. He's off just as much as he's right.

 

[Nicole1980]

We shall see. It's not like Gurman has a flawless track record. He's off just as much as he's right.

Sure. But you have to admit: an M2pro Mac Mini makes absolute sense, both in the lineup, and in that enclosure. Would be a waste to not put an Mxpro in there.

 

[CWallace]

We shall see. It's not like Gurman has a flawless track record. He's off just as much as he's right.

German has solid sources about development models Apple is working on so I believe Apple has a Mac mini with Pro class M family SoCs in the lab.

Whether or not they decide to ever release them out of the lab is the question.

 

[Icaras]

Sure. But you have to admit: an M2pro Mac Mini makes absolute sense, both in the lineup, and in that enclosure. Would be a waste to not put an Mxpro in there.

It makes absolute sense to me to have an M2 Pro in the Mac mini and not sure why everyone here is so quick to shoot that idea down.

I get it. Price it up high enough and might as go for the Mac Studio, yadda yadda yadda. The argument has been beaten around like a dead horse but I still believe a market exists for a Pro chip in the mini enclosure that can fill in a gap.

Gurman gives me hope that we’ll finally see this come to the mini.

 

[Heat_Fan89]

It makes absolute sense to me to have an M2 Pro in the Mac mini and not sure why everyone here is so quick to shoot that idea down.

I don’t think anyone here is against the idea of a Pro Mini. The argument seems to be for and against product overlap. Apple headless desktops seem to be on the niche side. It is why there was a giant wait between the 2014 Mini and it’s successor and the MP seems to have an even bigger gap. The last base model Mini update is going on two years. Apple probably sells more laptops vs their headless desktops combined. I hope you folks get your Pro Mini but i’m waiting for a new low-end Mini because it’s the best bang for the buck and I think Apple realizes that which is why it is a low priority product.

 

[Icaras]

I don’t think anyone here is against the idea of a Pro Mini. The argument seems to be for and against product overlap.

If you read through the last several pages, that certainly seems like an agenda for some. I also don’t understand the idea of product overlap? There is literally no M1 Pro chip available for desktops that you can go out and purchase today.

I do however understand there’s an overlap in pricing if we start to make educated guesses. We’ll just have to wait and see how Apple’s pricing strategy goes.

 

[EugW]

Basically, the way I see it:

If Apple keeps the M1 around when the next Mac mini is released, there may be no M2 Pro model.
However, if Apple replaces all M1 models with M2, then there is room for an M2 Pro model.
Or perhaps Apple could keep M1 around in just the lowest end tier for education, and replace everything else with M2, and add in M2 Pro.

IOW, it all depends on where Apple places and prices M2. They could make it the replacement for the Intel Mac mini, since there are distinct advantages of M2 over M1, in the form of hardware ProRes acceleration support and 24 GB RAM option. Sure, M2 doesn't support more than two 4K displays, but the number of people wanting to run more than two 4K displays is extremely small, and Apple already has a headless desktop product under US$2000 that supports this.

I was leaning toward the idea that M2 would be the new mid-range Mac mini, with M1 at the low end. However, I would love to be proven wrong, so that M2 is the new low end Mac mini and M2 Pro is the new mid-range.

M2 Max is unnecessary in the Mac mini, and I don't think there is enough room for it anyway, given Apple's current product lineup and pricing.

The other question is when all these machines will get updated. I'm hopeful for fall 2022, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's spring 2023 or later. If it's fall 2022, then it would be N5P. If it's 2023 with M2 Pro, there is a possibility it could be N3. I would personally prefer fall 2022 and N5P, since it's a desktop and it's likely going to be large enough to support quiet cooling. Certainly, if it keeps the current form factor, it will be large enough.

 

[sublunar]

German has solid sources about development models Apple is working on so I believe Apple has a Mac mini with Pro class M family SoCs in the lab.

Whether or not they decide to ever release them out of the lab is the question.

Absolutely they will have tested M2/M1 Pro/M2 Pro in the existing chassis.

We are at the point, though, where US to Euro/£ exchange rates have changed to the point where price rises will have to occur for new product - see the M2 MacBook Pro for the example.

Marketing wise, if Apple replace the M1 Mini with M2 across the board then Europe and UK will probably see 50-100 Euro/£50-100 price uplift in the same chassis. Probably not a great look for the cheapest Mac in the lineup as we move into the possible recession although I think any new product is potentially liable to price increases in Europe/UK due to exchange rate.

For this reason I'm now leaning toward the M1 Mini staying in the lineup unchanged.

But the spec of the upper SKU Mini remains up in the air.

If Apple launch an M2 Pro Mini by October it'll be a great time to upgrade the 14" and 16" MacBook Pros (introduced in October 2021) but you'd then need to see M2 Max upgrade options - which looks bad next to the Mac Studio which was only launched in March. So adding the M2 Pro to the Mini might seriously cannibalise the Mac Studio which surely can't get a spec bump till March 2023 at the earliest.

Unless that's the plan and the upper SKU Mini isn't getting a release until 2023 to coincide with the next Mac Studio.

Apple's solution for the MacBook Air has been to keep the existing M1 model at the old price and introduce a (potentially redesigned chassis) SKU with M2 in or keep the same chassis and throw in higher power CPU.

At the moment, Apple have 2 good choices:

Keep M1 Mac (low SKU), introduce M2 Mac with price and spec increase (like MBA!)
Keep M1 Mac (low SKU), introduce M1 Pro based upper SKU (but no M1 Max BTO) - this would account for Eurasian database desktop model but remember that might be meaningless as it might have been referring to a redesigned Mac Pro.

And 2 other choices:

M2 update across the board (will lead to price increases in Europe and UK) replacing M1 in same chassis
M2 update plus M2 Pro upper SKU - is it really a great idea for the Mini to get the M2 Pro first ahead of the 14"/16" laptops? Sounds like this doesn't get a release till Spring 2023 in part to give plenty of time for other higher value Macs to get sold first.

M1 Pro Mini would offer distinct upgrades over the M1 including at least 3 Thunderbolt 4 ports, likely 10 Gig ethernet option and potential for SD slot alongside HDMI (looking at the MacBook Pro 14/16 as template). It would also bring plenty of horsepower - perhaps enough to steal sales away from the Mac Studio.

An M2 Mini alongside a base model M1 would only offer the same (significant) incremental in-chip speed upgrades that we are seeing in comparisons between M1 and M2 MacBook Pros. I would suggest that Apple could probably get away with it by pricing up with 512Gb base storage (for example) for the starting SKU.

 

[sublunar]

I was leaning toward the idea that M2 would be the new mid-range Mac mini, with M1 at the low end. However, I would love to be proven wrong, so that M2 is the new low end Mac mini and M2 Pro is the new mid-range.

M2 Max is unnecessary in the Mac mini, and I don't think there is enough room for it anyway, given Apple's current product lineup and pricing.

Having looked at the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro I think any new Apple launch now risks increases in unit prices in Europe and UK due to exchange rate.

The Mac Studio price is already set so there's a potential danger that a Mac mini with M1 Pro in it will be priced a bit too close to the Mac Studio in Europe and the UK (and probably around the world) unless the recent prices increases have been 'priced in' for the Studio.

I would lean towards Apple replacing the Intel upper SKU Mini with an M2 so prices don't increase too much around the world.

M1 Pro would sell very well due to horsepower advantage though.

 

[Maximara]

They 100% won't change it. Their attitude to thermals is horrible, unfortunately.

Based on the Mac Studio I think they have partly realized that having good thermals is a good idea.

 

[InuNacho]

gosh darn it, you made me click on something from Max Tech.

I saw the 3 seconds I needed to of the 103 degrees and closed the window.
No need to hear that fake ear grating fake rage/anger/whatever its supposed to be for 12 minutes.

 

[Maximara]

I saw the 3 seconds I needed to of the 103 degrees and closed the window.
No need to hear that fake ear grating fake rage/anger/whatever its supposed to be for 12 minutes.

Perhaps it is early but you would have thought somebody else would have talked about the M2 going past the 100 degree mark but either google's algorithm is off or there isn't anyone else - which is weird.

 

[Sun Baked]

Based on the Mac Studio I think they have partly realized that having good thermals is a good idea.

You said good idea ... so likely you will get Apple's form over function design, and get the next Mac Mini looking like an Apple TV clone.

Lots of leaks that people claimed were bad/stupid ideas that turn out to be true.

 

[George Dawes]

Definitely going to eat into studio max sales , unless of course they intentionally cripple it

They’ve never done that before…. /s

 

[theluggage]

Definitely going to eat into studio max sales , unless of course they intentionally cripple it

There's certainly a ~ $1200 - $1400 'price slot' free for a M1 Pro Mini/Studio - with the same $600-$800 difference as you get between the 14" MBP Pro and Max. I think it comes down to sales figures - the MBPs sell in significantly higher quantities than Mini/Studio so there's less danger of 'competition' forcing sales of any one model to unsustainably low levels.

... and whether a Mx Pro desktop is a Studio or a Mini really comes down to how big it needs to be to accomodate the extra ports supported by the Pro along with any extra cooling and power supply requirements. Not going to second-guess Apple on that one - the port layout on some of the "new Mac Mini" renders was clearly wrong (no space to plug things in).

Personally, I think it's too late in the day for Apple to launch a M1 Pro Mini/Studio - but things might change when there's a complete next-gen Mx/Pro/Max/Ultra range of SoCs to upgrade the complete Mini/Studio line - which might not be until the current Studio is at least a year old.

 

[sublunar]

There's certainly a ~ $1200 - $1400 'price slot' free for a M1 Pro Mini/Studio - with the same $600-$800 difference as you get between the 14" MBP Pro and Max. I think it comes down to sales figures - the MBPs sell in significantly higher quantities than Mini/Studio so there's less danger of 'competition' forcing sales of any one model to unsustainably low levels.

... and whether a Mx Pro desktop is a Studio or a Mini really comes down to how big it needs to be to accomodate the extra ports supported by the Pro along with any extra cooling and power supply requirements. Not going to second-guess Apple on that one - the port layout on some of the "new Mac Mini" renders was clearly wrong (no space to plug things in).

Personally, I think it's too late in the day for Apple to launch a M1 Pro Mini/Studio - but things might change when there's a complete next-gen Mx/Pro/Max/Ultra range of SoCs to upgrade the complete Mini/Studio line - which might not be until the current Studio is at least a year old.

I think one thing we recognise at the moment is the fact that if you were to spec up 16Gb RAM and 512Gb storage on the M2 MacBook Pro you're effectively in the hinterlands of the base M1 Pro 14" (binned version but still higher performing in most multicore workloads) MacBook Pro which is often discounted on third party retailers.

For the same reason I would say that reviewers will suggest that base models of the M2 MBA and MBP 13" are increasingly not worth upgrading because of the proximity to the base MBP 14.

Classic Apple upsell I guess.

For the same reason, you look at the M1 Max Studio 32Gb RAM, 512Gb SSD and consider that your price slot which would have to include an extra $400 for the upgrade from 16 to 32Gb RAM to make it like for like could see an upper SKU mini rise from $1099 to $1499 and then you add the (unknown) uplift from M1 to M1 Pro (which I have estimated at $200). This leaves you with an M1 Pro mini which is upgraded to $1699 to match the M1 Max Studio. The extra $300 gets you the M1 Mac CPU and a better cooling solution for sure and potentially more IO.

The standard M1 Pro Mini could start at $1299 (16Gb RAM, 512Gb SSD) and the additional question that comes to mind is how much pressure could Mac Stadium (or other colocation guys) be putting on Apple to release that in the existing M1 case? The PSU and cooling solution should be able to support it, they don't care about HDMI/Wifi/Bluetooth issues, and the only question mark remaining is just how much IO could this version get?

At the very least I'm thinking 3 Thunderbolt 4 ports to match what the 14" MacBook Pro has, although 4 Thunderbolt 4 or at least another 3 TB4 + 1 USB-C to make it 4 external USB-C ports and match the outgoing Intel mini.

The M1 mini could even stick around to keep entry prices down as it seems to be clear that prices for M2 hardware appear to be rising in non US territories.