It would have to be at least $1499. Apple would likely charge US$200 for the 8 GB RAM upgrade.
There is the financial reason why Apple won’t do m2 pro. I remind you why some of us did the subs and can’t find the gap.
It’s $1099 for m1 16/512
It’s $1499 for m1 32/512 (impossible spec)
Add $100 for 10 gig network
Add $200 for binned M1 Pro which likely only exists because some full fat M1 Pro fail QA slightly. That’s our guess in this forum by the way.
And the killer point is you have to add another $500 on top to get to the same binned M1 Max in the studio.
Our Frankenstein mini just cost $2299 whereas the studio which includes even more ports and superior cooling solution costs $1999.
Even if you conclude that the heat profile rules out M1 Max in a mini a full fat M1 Pro mini costs $2099 and the 10/14 single binned M1 Pro mini reaches parity at $1999.
And you’re still going to get a certain percentage of people who struggle to use their Bluetooth keyboard and mouse near their expensive mini when a usb hard drive is plugged in.
No, not at all. Chip upgrade options are common for various types of computers. Hell, the 14" MacBook Pro has FIVE different chip options. Yes, they sell higher volumes, but nobody is asking for five different chip options for the Mac mini. People are thinking about just two. M2, and one M2 Pro option, perhaps a binned variant.
BTW, while it's possible the new Mac mini will be M2-only, so far I have not seen any good evidence that says that introducing such a M2 Pro mid-tier would reduce Apple's profit because of the loss of Mac Studio sales. I suspect a lot of people would succumb to the upsell from M2, if Apple released an M2 Pro Mac mini. How the ratio of sales and overall profit shake out would depend on how they spec'd and priced that mid-tier.
I cite engineering reasons.
The studio ultras includes 6 full thunderbolt ports with 2 at the front. The M1 Max studio turns the 2 front ones into plain usb c 10mbps ports but no case redesign is needed.
The back of a mini has just 2 thunderbolt ports cut out. An M1 Pro Mini would increase that to a known 3 if we compare to the MacBook Pro, we don’t know for sure if it can support 4 like the Intel model. The point here is it’s a totally new case sku.
That’s before you get to the reason why the 2014 Mini didn’t include the quad core Intel cpu from the much loved 2012 model - that it would have required a new motherboard due to different pin out design on the haswell quad core vs the duel core. The ivy bridge motherboards were the same. Therefore it’s an engineering budget.
There is precedent in apple using M1 Max and M1 Pro in the same product line and that’s the MacBook Pros. Moreover limited bandwidth due to M1 Pro might be the reason why the laptops have just three thunderbolt ports when the previous Intel ones had 4 and we can see that the mac studio m1 max has 4 plus an extra 2 usb-c ports.
And finally, the renders of a smaller Mac mini thanks to Jon prosser and Ian zelbo show a smaller case which likely fixes the wifi and Bluetooth issues because of use of a radio transparent polycarbonate top. It resembles a mark 1 Apple TV and there looks to be only 2 thunderbolt ports on it. Apple TV 4K mark 3 got slimmed down with the fan removed to cut costs (including shipping costs on a pallet I would guess).
I do wonder if apple have done some sums on the now over engineered case which has purported radio flaws but can cool a 65w Intel cpu (and therefore coincidentally can handle M1 Pro on paper) and decided they can reduce costs rather than add a binned M1 Pro in and increase costs because of a second motherboard required with extra cut out for an unspecified number of ports on the back? What if the engineers say that M1 Pro only supports 3 thunderbolt ports anyway? The 4 thunderbolt Intel guys will have their pitchforks out!!!
And this is before the 24gb m2 upgrade gets rated as poor value because folks like you would always spec the m2 Pro above more ram. That clue tells you that the engineers have helped the marketing department decide that m2 is enough for the mini.
“If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will.” - Steve Jobs
Did Steve Jobs have a supply issue because of covid and war in Ukraine? Did he also have adverse Foreign exchange issues which likely would add £500 or €500 to the price of a base m2 Max Mac Studio when it gets an update, which could have a knock on with supply for the vastly more important MacBook Pros?
And my cannibalisation point stands. Introduce the full fat m2 Pro as base Studio sku for $1799 32/512. It would have at least 3 thunderbolt ports and i would say 3 usb c Ports without affecting case design.
The m2 mini can be taken to 24/512 for $1299 for those users who don’t need 10 gig Ethernet. And I would say the marketing folks will be happy with the upsell to Mac Studio.