The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[Boil]

What if the base M2 SoC is the ONLY SoC in the M2 family...?

What if Spring 2023 thru WWDC 2023 brings us the M3 family of SoCs on N3E (N3P/N3S/N3X)...?

What if all of these new Macs are all redesigned, casting aside any old Intel trappings for fresh new designs...?

Mmm... 2023... 3nm... M3 family of SoCs... Hardware ray-tracing... Mmm...

 

[pshufd]

What if the base M2 SoC is the ONLY SoC in the M2 family...?

What if Spring 2023 thru WWDC 2023 brings us the M3 family of SoCs on N3E (N3P/N3S/N3X)...?

What if all of these new Macs are all redesigned, casting aside any old Intel trappings for fresh new designs...?

Mmm... 2023... 3nm... M3 family of SoCs... Hardware ray-tracing... Mmm...

Then I can look forward to a 15 inch Air.

 

[EugW]

What if the base M2 SoC is the ONLY SoC in the M2 family...?

What if Spring 2023 thru WWDC 2023 brings us the M3 family of SoCs on N3E (N3P/N3S/N3X)...?

What if all of these new Macs are all redesigned, casting aside any old Intel trappings for fresh new designs...?

Mmm... 2023... 3nm... M3 family of SoCs... Hardware ray-tracing... Mmm...

That seems extremely unlikely.

However, as I've mentioned before, I already have a 16 GB m3 machine.

 

[Boil]

What if the base M2 SoC is the ONLY SoC in the M2 family...?

What if Spring 2023 thru WWDC 2023 brings us the M3 family of SoCs on N3E (N3P/N3S/N3X)...?

What if all of these new Macs are all redesigned, casting aside any old Intel trappings for fresh new designs...?

Mmm... 2023... 3nm... M3 family of SoCs... Hardware ray-tracing... Mmm...

That seems extremely unlikely.

Could happen, the M2 could be a simple stop-gap until the M3 family is ready...!

M3 is where Apple silicon really "starts"; smaller process for more cores, cooler temps, and the aforementioned hardware ray-tracing...

2023 thru 2025 (the projected timeline from N3E to N3X) should be pretty exciting for Apple silicon, especially for the ASi Mac Pro with M3 Extreme SoCs on the N3X process...!

 

[radow]

Which versions? PopOS and Ubuntu run well on my 2013 8 GB iMac.

Windows Subsystem for Linux allows running Linux alongside Windows, so developers can enjoy full Linux environment without leaving Windows. Now the Linux subsystem even have great graphics performance. Very convenient feature. This is possible with virtualization, so it requires more RAM.

So you guys don't have anything like Xcode (or Swift) can does development in a reasonable RAM footprint?

It has little things to do with Swift language. Developers usually do Android development with Java(more common, tend to use more resources) or Kotlin(relatively new, efficient).
Android Studio is the most commonly used Android development IDE. It’s not as resource-heavy as something like Visual Studio, but at professional development situations, 16+ GB of RAM is required. More lightweight tools exists though.

Don't blame Apple for going with RAM specs that assume programmers are knowledge people who write sane code. As I said before if your solution is to throw RAM at it than either it is unoptimized code or you have no idea what you are doing.

- While of course developers have fault. But it is expensive, sometimes even not sustainable, to make app native on every single platform. Electron works.
- Yes, Safari is efficient and fast, but compatibility with new Web standards is usually hit or miss. Quite a few websites works best on Chromium browsers. At the end of the day, we are just end users/consumers, we buy products that meet our needs. And isn’t more RAM a good thing?

 

[theluggage]

I was surprised when the Mini wasn’t updated this summer

Why?

Last 10 years of Mac Mini release history:
Late 2012
Late 2014
Late 2018 (4 years!)
Late 2020

Apple may have dumped Intel - but they're still Apple - and the money is with consumer laptops and iDevices.

On past performance, we might just be due for a new Mini - but if the Tim Cook quotes are accurate it sounds like its not going to be this year.

 

[Maximara]

Windows Subsystem for Linux allows running Linux alongside Windows, so developers can enjoy full Linux environment without leaving Windows. Now the Linux subsystem even have great graphics performance. Very convenient feature. This is possible with virtualization, so it requires more RAM.

I was talking about using PopOS and Ubuntu run well on my 2013 8 GB iMac via VirtualBox — so I am emulating some Windows hardware here.

- While of course developers have fault. But it is expensive, sometimes even not sustainable, to make app native on every single platform. Electron works.

So does Basic. Your point? 😆 Yes, I am being sarcastic but just because it works doesn't mean it is a good choice. Thanks to Livecode, Hypertalk (from Hypercard) still works and is even cross platform — just how many people write in Hypertalk these days?

- Yes, Safari is efficient and fast, but compatibility with new Web standards is usually hit or miss. Quite a few websites works best on Chromium browsers. At the end of the day, we are just end users/consumers, we buy products that meet our needs. And isn’t more RAM a good thing?

Actually I use Firefox (with cashes turned off) because Safari kept running into too many designed for Chrome websites. Currently have 18 tabs open, four of them you tube videos on standby with another playing in the background. Here is the RAM usage (I also have System 9.01 running in the background via Sheepshaver):

An an activity breakdown:

 

[Neodym]

The main reason to be writing to the SSD is if there isn't enough physical RAM available or the program was written by clueless people repeatably smashing their heads into a keyboard. Heck, even Windows users have seen Chrome writing to their SSD even when freaking idol!

Don't blame Apple for going with RAM specs that assume programmers are knowledge people who write sane code. As I said before if your solution is to throw RAM at it than either it is unoptimized code or you have no idea what you are doing.

I don’t know your insight into big companies, but sometimes employed programmers may actually have an idea what they are doing, but are forced to make-do with frameworks, existing code fragments or simply unoptimized code - just to meet deadlines or because their manager told them so (because … reasons).

Not everyone is lucky to live (or work) in an ideal world. Apple should consider such things in their specs.

 

[radow]

I was talking about using PopOS and Ubuntu run well on my 2013 8 GB iMac via VirtualBox — so I am emulating some Windows hardware here.

yeah, I see. But for Windows Subsystem for Linux, lots of use cases are physics simulation/data analysis related, which requires high amount of RAM. I probably won’t do data analysis on the fore-mentioned Windows on ARM dev kit though, just saying.

Actually I use Firefox (with cashes turned off) because Safari kept running into too many designed for Chrome websites. Currently have 18 tabs open, four of them you tube videos on standby with another playing in the background. Here is the RAM usage:

I use Firefox too and have similar results as yours. I‘m now on a fedora desktop machine, have about 50 tabs open. 2 youtube videos, and a bunch of web archive webpages. Takes up about 9GB of RAM.

 

[Neodym]

What if Spring 2023 thru WWDC 2023 brings us the M3 family of SoCs on N3E (N3P/N3S/N3X)...?

What if the China/Taiwan conflict escalates until then? And/Or if the U.S. intensifies China sanctions regarding chip production (my understanding is that TSMC has exceptional permissions so far, but that could of course change)?

 

[hoodlum90]

I would only be interested in either a M2 Mini Pro or the Studio for my Lightroom Photography, so that is what I am comparing.

The existing M1 Mini is $1650 cdn for 16GB/1TB (my min config). So say we have a $50 exchange rate increase along with a $100 increase for the M2. That bring this M2 Mini cong to $1800 cdn. Now how much will they charge for the Pro config? On the MacBook Pro they charge $400 to go from Pro 8/14 core to 10/16 core, so I am thinking they could charge $500 cdn to go from non-Pro to Pro, bringing this config to $2300. Now Apple would liking do a base m2 Mini Pro 16GB/512GB for slightly less at $1999 cdn ($1499 US). I would go with 1TB so my config would be $2250 cdn in this scenario.

I fully expect the Studio price to increase $100-200 cdn when they announce the new Mini. The Studio was aggressively priced earlier this year at only 25% over the US, when the dollar was closer to 80 cents. The challenge is that the Studio is currently only $500 more than this projected M2 Mini Pro pricing and you getting the following for that.

32GB memory
Extra TB Ports
SD card slot

I expect there will be little difference between the processors. The Studio already has the faster memory from the M2 and while the M2 CPU will be a bit faster the Studio will still have more GPU cores.

This is why I will likely order a Studio a few days before the M2 Mini announcement to lock in the current price. The extra $500 seems worth it for the memory and future proofing. The built in SD card is a very nice convenience as a photographer. Hopefully they announce an M2 Mini Pro and if I am lucky the reviews will come out a week later before I have to return the Studio.

One one nagging item is the noisy fan from the Studio. While there are some workarounds if you have a noisy fan (tape on grill and slower fan speed) my decision would be a lot easier if this never existed.

While not a big issue for me I noticed a couple others advantages of the Studio over the existing mini or MacBook 14/16” Pro since I posted my summary. Those interested in doing video should take this into account as well. The M2 Mini may not get all of the Studio M1 features.

• Two video encode engines
• Two ProRes encode and decode engines

 

[Boil]

What if the China/Taiwan conflict escalates until then? And/Or if the U.S. intensifies China sanctions regarding chip production (my understanding is that TSMC has exceptional permissions so far, but that could of course change)?

What if Apple finances a US-based TSMC foundry intended specifically for Apple silicon...? ;^p

 

[Boil]

While not a big issue for me I noticed a couple others advantages of the Studio over the existing mini or MacBook 14/16” Pro since I posted my summary. Those interested in doing video should take this into account as well. The M2 Mini may not get all of the Studio M1 features.

• Two video encode engines
• Two ProRes encode and decode engines

A base level SoC not getting all the features of a mid-to-high level SoC, say it ain't so...?!? ;^p

 

[EugW]

What if Apple finances a US-based TSMC foundry intended specifically for Apple silicon...? ;^p

There is already a US-based TSMC foundry being built. Apple can just buy production there if necessary.

 

[Neodym]

There is already a US-based TSMC foundry being built. Apple can just buy production there if necessary.

I assume that this foundry will be targeting the USA specifically and would not have the capacity to supply Apple’s global markets even partially. After all there‘s more to a device than an AppleSilicon chip. Besides - such a fab takes years to be built and production processes becoming ready for prime time …

 

[EugW]

Here's the Bloomberg article for those of us who don't have access to Gurman's newsletter:

Apple Gears Up to Launch Its Next Crop of Macs Early Next Year

Apple’s next group of Macs probably won’t launch until early next year, which means it will have fewer new devices to sell in the holiday quarter. Also: The company hikes the prices of key services and confirms a USB-C iPhone.

www.bloomberg.com

I’m told that Apple is aiming to introduce the upgraded models—including M2-based versions of the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros—in the first quarter of calendar 2023 and has tied the launches to the upcoming macOS Ventura 13.3 and iOS 16.3. Those software updates are expected to debut between early February and the beginning of March.

Apple has rarely launched new products in January or February during recent years, so I’d expect the new Macs to be announced by the first half of March. That aligns with the planned ship dates for the corresponding software, but also makes sense in light of Apple’s recent history of launching new Macs during that month, including the Mac Studio this year.

A new Mac mini remains in development, and the company continues to test versions with the same M2 chip as the 13-inch MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, as well as an M2 Pro chip, which hikes the CPU and graphics counts. If Apple indeed launches the M2 Pro variation, we can expect the company to probably wind down the still-available Intel model.

 

[ThisBougieLife]

Makes me wonder if the 24" iMac will be getting M2 Pro as well.

It seems the reason the Mac Mini hasn't yet been updated to M2 is because it is also getting M2 Pro and the Pro/Max chips are not ready. Otherwise, why not update the Mac Mini to M2 with the other M2 Macs?

The 24" iMac is being neglected by the rumor mill, but I can't think of any reason why it doesn't have M2 yet. Why skip M2 in this one product only?

 

[gusping]

Makes me wonder if the 24" iMac will be getting M2 Pro as well.

It seems the reason the Mac Mini hasn't yet been updated to M2 is because it is also getting M2 Pro and the Pro/Max chips are not ready. Otherwise, why not update the Mac Mini to M2 with the other M2 Macs?

The 24" iMac is being neglected by the rumor mill, but I can't think of any reason why it doesn't have M2 yet. Why skip M2 in this one product only?

But why would Apple wait to release an M2 mini? I suspect the M2 SoCs are in good supply and they could have done it by now.

I reckon the M2 will be in the 24in iMac and the 27in will get the M2 Pro (and maybe Max).

 

[CWallace]

If Apple does not want to do everything at WWDC, then I could see a March 2023 Mac event for the mini, iMac and MacBook Pros and then save WWDC for Mac Pro and the Cinema Displays.

 

[EugW]

Makes me wonder if the 24" iMac will be getting M2 Pro as well.

It seems the reason the Mac Mini hasn't yet been updated to M2 is because it is also getting M2 Pro and the Pro/Max chips are not ready. Otherwise, why not update the Mac Mini to M2 with the other M2 Macs?

The 24" iMac is being neglected by the rumor mill, but I can't think of any reason why it doesn't have M2 yet. Why skip M2 in this one product only?

The guy who leaked early Mac Studio details said there is an M2 iMac in the pipeline already, but it's gonna take some time.
For the Mac mini, he said that an M2 Mac mini is ready to go, but FWIW, he made no mention of the M2 Pro either way.

If Apple does not want to do everything at WWDC, then I could see a March 2023 Mac event for the mini, iMac and MacBook Pros and then save WWDC for Mac Pro and the Cinema Displays.

March/April works well. I've read it takes about 2 months to go from SoC to finished product, and roadmaps have volume N3 arriving in early calendar Q1.

 

[Boil]

If Apple does not want to do everything at WWDC, then I could see a March 2023 Mac event for the mini, iMac and MacBook Pros and then save WWDC for Mac Pro and the Cinema Displays.

Press release for the M2 Max / M2 Ultra Mac Studio headless desktops in between...?

 

[CWallace]

Press release for the M2 Max / M2 Ultra Mac Studio headless desktops in between...?

My guess is the Mac Studio refresh will be a Spring 2024 product both to allow Mac Pro some sales breathing room and then as the "what a bargain!" choice for those who retired to their Fainting Couches when they saw the pricing schema for the Mac Pro.

 

[Maximara]

I don’t know your insight into big companies, but sometimes employed programmers may actually have an idea what they are doing, but are forced to make-do with frameworks, existing code fragments or simply unoptimized code - just to meet deadlines or because their manager told them so (because … reasons).

Apple was like that in the 1990s...and nearly went out of business. 'Those who not learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.' "because … reasons" is the catch all for 'we have no real clue on how to explain this piece of stupid and so leave it to you.'

Not everyone is lucky to live (or work) in an ideal world. Apple should consider such things in their specs.

It is not so much an ideal world but a world that doesn't involve coming up with what amounts to BS handwaving for the actions of the real world equivalent of Dilbert's boss.

 

[Peter_M]

So according to the rumors, no more new Mac models in 2022. And Apple is still selling their Mac Mini 2018 model (at full price) with an 8th gen Intel CPU, when 13th gen CPUs are available. Apple should at least have updated their Intel Mac Mini models properly back in 20/21. Still plenty of software issues for audio/DAW-work (as well as a lack of necessary RAM on the Mac Mini M1), so I have no rush getting into M1/M2 yet. Typical Apple greed.

 

[Peter_M]

But why would Apple wait to release an M2 mini? I suspect the M2 SoCs are in good supply and they could have done it by now.

I reckon the M2 will be in the 24in iMac and the 27in will get the M2 Pro (and maybe Max).

Apple probably feels M2 Minis could undercut Mac Studio sales, so they hold them back a few more months. Or they are waiting for the M2 Pro chips to be available in large quantities for an M2/M2 Pro configuration for the next Mac Mini. That's my guess.