Heh. I cleaned up my desk, reorganized my files, consolidated my drives and tested my system, and it's absolutely clear I do NOT need to upgrade my M1 16 GB Mac mini. Here is my memory usage with a typical set of apps open:
View attachment 2449556
Sometimes I do multitask more with a bit more compressed memory usage, but it's really uncommon for me to see a swap file of any significant size, unless I'm doing something out of the ordinary for me.
So, the new Mac mini is just a case of want, not need. But that's OK. My M4 24 GB 10 GbE is coming tomorrow!