Unhappy with the M1 Macs? Wait for the early 2021 Macs with Apple Silicon

[Hexley]

I bought a low spec Intel mac, simply because I needed a stable computer, and couldn't afford to keep waiting. My initial plan was to sell after the new 4 port 13 or 16 came out, and buy one of those, but the admirable performance of the Air has me contemplating alternatives. Maybe I'll end up with an Air and a spare instead. That would nearly fit into the budget of a base 16, let alone an optioned up one.

I seem to have good, stable silicon in my 2020 MBP 2 port, which was the main goal.

Only remaining Intel Macs being offered for sale are more expensive than the M1 Macs.

It appears that Apple is trying to direct buyers to M1 Macs that offers better margins for them and reduce the urgency of supporting Intel Macs longer than they have to.

2018 Mac mini still being sold today could lose their system update support earlier than 2026.

 

[calstanford]

We shall see who is right by WWDC 2021

That’s not early 2021

 

[Argon_]

Only remaining Intel Macs are more expensive than the M1 Macs.

It appears that Apple is trying to induce people to buy into M1 Macs that offers better margins for them and reduce their the urgency of supporting Intel Macs longer than they have to.

2018 Mac mini still being sold today could lose their system update support earlier than 2026.

Wouldn't the higher spec devices have better margins, now that they no longer have to pay Intel $500 for a piece of binned silicon?

 

[Hexley]

Wouldn't the higher spec devices have better margins, now that they no longer have to pay Intel $500 for a piece of binned silicon?

Entry level Mm, MBA and 13" are all M1. High-end are Intel Macs. Using your own chips would be cheaper than buying from ~80% market share duopoly.

 

[KPOM]

Wouldn't the higher spec devices have better margins, now that they no longer have to pay Intel $500 for a piece of binned silicon?

They are still paying Intel for all Macs but the M1 Air, Pro, and Mini. Granted, those are the highest volume sellers.

 

[Hexley]

That’s not early 2021

WWDC 2021 would have iMac Pro and Mac Pro with Apple Silicon be announced thus completing the Intel to Apple Silicon transition.

Why sooner than 2 years? Because...

• Mitigate Osborne effect
• Continue record Mac earnings
• Improved margins using own chips
• Increase shareholder's value

 

[Argon_]

Entry level Mm, MBA and 13" are all M1. High-end are Intel Macs. Using your own chips would be cheaper than buying from ~80% market share duopoly.

My post was poorly written. I was thinking in a purely speculative sense, that a higher priced device with in house silicon would have a better margin, but you were talking about today. Yes, not paying Intel improves margins, and the current Air is good enough to replace a 16.

 

[Hexley]

My post was poorly written. I was thinking in a purely speculative sense, that a higher priced device with in house silicon would have a better margin, but you were talking about today. Yes, not paying Intel improves margins, and the current Air is good enough to replace a 16.

Any M1 Mac can sub for a 2020 iMac Core i9.

 

[Argon_]

Any M1 Mac can sub for a 2020 iMac Core i9.

The I9 does exceed the M1 in cinebench scores, admittedly, but it does so while drawing a lot of power.

Unified memory seems to be a game changer as well.

 

[KPOM]

There is zero evidence to suggest we are getting the Apple Silicon iMacs between January & WWDC. We could very well not be getting them until late 2022. I see a lot of these posts that almost strike me as if it’s a person trying not to feel bad that they don’t have the M1

The 21.5” models are running as low as a 5th Gen dual core i5 and at most a 6-core 8th Gen i7. Granted, the $1299+ models also have discrete GPUs, but at worst the M1 would be a lateral move except for the inability to support a second external display.

Conceivably Apple equips the $1099 iMac with an M1 and the higher end models with an M1X.

 

[Hexley]

The I9 does exceed the M1 in cinebench scores, admittedly, but it does so while drawing a lot of power.

Unified memory seems to be a game changer as well.

i9's on a 14nm process while M1's on a 5nm process as well. It's 2014 vs 2020 tech.

 

[Argon_]

i9's on a 14nm process while M1's on a 5nm process as well. It's 2014 vs 2020 tech.

Agreed, though one can get pretty far on brute force. That being said, they're running out of GHz to crank.

 

[Hexley]

The 21.5” models are running as low as a 5th Gen dual core i5 and at most a 6-core 8th Gen i7. Granted, the $1299+ models also have discrete GPUs, but at worst the M1 would be a lateral move except for the inability to support a second external display.

Conceivably Apple equips the $1099 iMac with an M1 and the higher end models with an M1X.

I agree with you on the $1,099 M1 iMac.

It is also possible that just like the $999 MBA with 1 deactivated GPU core, the $1,099 iMac may receive the binned part of the "M1X".

The 4K and 5K iMacs would get the "M1X" along with the 4 port Mm and MBP 13" & 16".

"M1X" design is done. Waiting for their scheduled announcement on a Tuesday within January-April 2021 which highly likely to be March.

 

[Hexley]

Agreed, though one can get pretty far on brute force. That being said, they're running out of GHz to crank.

If the A14 on 5W & M1 on less than 15W can trample a Core i9 on 125W what more a "M1X" on 125W?

I wouldn't mind selling my 2012 Mac for ~$300 for Apple Silicon power.

That's why I wish never bought any laptop after.

My timeline for Apple Silicon Mac purchases if I didn't buy laptops after 2012.

1. Late 2020 MBA 16GB 512GB for my dad unless I can convince him 256GB + 2TB external SSD 1GB/s is a better value
2. Early 2021 MBP 16" 16GB 512GB for myself because it's the base model of the Intel model today
3. Redesigned 2022 iMac 16GB 256GB small screen for my dad + 2TB external SSD 1GB/s
4. Redesigned 2022 iMac 16GB 256GB large screen for my myself + 2TB external SSD 1GB/s

Upgrade after 6-10 years of service ideally to a redesigned body.

 

[KPOM]

I agree with you on the $1,099 M1 iMac.

It is also possible that just like the $999 MBA with 1 deactivated GPU core, the $1,099 iMac may receive the binned part of the "M1X".

The 4K and 5K iMacs would get the "M1X" along with the 4 port Mm and MBP 13" & 16".

"M1X" design is done. Waiting for their scheduled announcement on a Tuesday within January-April 2021 which highly likely to be March.

Agreed. The M1X is likely a 12-core design with more IO capacity and support for 32-64GB of unified memory.

With Apple Silicon we’ll get fewer processor choices but better overall performance. In a way that’s a price cut, because the only upgrades will be for memory and storage. For example, the MacBook Air, base MacBook Pro, and Mac mini have the same processor. Only 1 GPU core and active cooling separate the models. The early 2020 Air alone had 2 CPU upgrades at $100 and $250.

 

[Hexley]

Agreed. The M1X is likely a 12-core design with more IO capacity and support for 32-64GB of unified memory.

With Apple Silicon we’ll get fewer processor choices but better overall performance. In a way that’s a price cut, because the only upgrades will be for memory and storage. For example, the MacBook Air, base MacBook Pro, and Mac mini have the same processor. Only 1 GPU core and active cooling separate the models. The early 2020 Air alone had 2 CPU upgrades at $100 and $250.

Other than deactivated cores, performance difference could be attributed to what voltage/wattage is applied on each Mac chip.

A binning system based on power it can handle. That's the genesis of overclocking.

I'm sure a non-business, non-board member, non-suppply chain, non-sales, non-marketing, non-purchasing and non-manufacturing person will chime in and insist on a 2 year transition that still has Apple selling more than Intel Mac into late 2022.

Redesigned bodies starting as early as 2022 will be Apple Silicon Mac only to position Apple Silicon Macs as newer models.

 

[Argon_]

If the A14 on 5W & M1 on less than 15W can trample a Core i9 on 125W what more a "M1X" on 125W?

I wouldn't mind selling my 2012 Mac for ~$300 for Apple Silicon power.

That's why I wish never bought any laptop after.

My timeline for Apple Silicon Mac purchases if I didn't buy laptops after 2012.

1. Late 2020 MBA 16GB 512GB for my dad unless I can convince him 256GB + 2TB external SSD 1GB/s is a better value
2. Early 2021 MBP 16" 16GB 512GB for myself because it's the base model of the Intel model today
3. Redesigned 2022 iMac 16GB 256GB small screen for my dad + 2TB external SSD 1GB/s
4. Redesigned 2022 iMac 16GB 256GB large screen for my myself + 2TB external SSD 1GB/s

Upgrade after 6-10 years of service ideally to a redesigned body.

Which laptops are you currently running?

My roadmap for purchases features two options:

-Sell my Intel MBP 13, buy a 16 'M1X' 32/512, enjoy extra performance that I don't currently need.

-Buy a '21 M1 MBA 16/256+ external drive, keep the Intel as a spare, use the MBA for ~8 years or two batteries, whichever comes first.

After seeing the Air put up a 6600 Cinebench score, plus the replaceable battery, I'm leaning towards the latter.

 

[Hexley]

Which laptops are you currently running?

My roadmap for purchases features two options:

-Sell my Intel MBP 13, buy a 16 'M1X' 32/512, enjoy extra performance that I don't currently need.

-Buy a '21 M1 MBA 16/256+ external drive, keep the Intel as a spare, use the MBA for ~8 years or two batteries, whichever comes first.

After seeing the Air put up a 6600 Cinebench score, plus the replaceable battery, I'm leaning towards the latter.

I replaced my working 2012 MBA Core i7/8GB/512GB

For a 2019 MBP 16" Core i7/16GB/512GB $1980 + Free Shipping

I replaced my dad's 2016 Macbook with working butterfly keyboard

And gifted him a 2018 MBA Core i5/16GB/512GB $1150 + Free Shipping. Many said that 16GB memory was wasted on such a "slow" Mac.

Bought a Dell Inspiron 15 Gaming 7000 as seen in Spider-Man: Homecoming to learn Windows 10. Added 32GB memory and 512GB NVMe SSD.

Imagine jumping from a over 8yo and over 4yo computer to an Apple Silicon Mac.

wawaweewa! I like!

 

[Argon_]

I replaced my working 2012 MBA Core i7/8GB/512GB

For a 2019 MBP 16" Core i7/16GB/512GB $1980 + Free Shipping

I replaced my dad's 2016 Macbook with working butterfly keyboard

And gifted him a 2018 MBA Core i5/16GB/512GB $1150 + Free Shipping. Many said that 16GB memory was wasted on such a "slow" Mac.

Bought a Dell Inspiron 15 Gaming 7000 as seen in Spider-Man: Homecoming to learn Windows 10. Added 32GB memory and 512GB NVMe SSD.

Imagine jumping from a over 8yo and over 4yo computer to an Apple Silicon Mac.

wawaweewa! I like!

That's a pretty stacked setup. I can see why it might be frustrating. 20/20 hindsight of course.

Everyone remembers Prometheus, Titan of Foresight. No one remembers Epimethius, Titan of Aftersight, because his power is rather lame.

One reason I'm considering holding onto my Intel MBP, is because I currently don't own a desktop, and a second fully functional Mac could rescue me from an otherwise calamitous problem.

 

[Hexley]

That's a pretty stacked setup. I can see why it might be frustrating. 20/20 hindsight of course.

Everyone remembers Prometheus, Titan of Foresight. No one remembers Epimethius, Titan of Aftersight, because his power is rather lame.

One reason I'm considering holding onto my Intel MBP, is because I currently don't own a desktop, and a second fully functional Mac could rescue me from an otherwise calamitous problem.

Edited my post with more details after you quoted

It would have been very acceptable for me to let go of the 2012 MBA & 2016 MB for $300 each towards Apple Silicon.

That's $5k that could have gone to the stock market. After more than doubling I could have used it to fund the purchases of 4 Apple Silicon Macs.

 

[Argon_]

Edited for continuity, and you only confirmed my Epimethius comment. I've though about the few hundred bucks I would have saved by limping my well spec'd but unstable machine for a few more months, and buying a base Air, but then I might contemplate flipping that for a 16" or a 13" 4 port, leading me to near my current position.

Ultimately though, my Intel 13 setup will likely give more time for better silicon quality, software compatibility, and fixed teething troubles.

 

[Hexley]

Edited for continuity, and you only confirmed my Epimethius comment. I've though about the few hundred bucks I would have saved by limping my well spec'd but unstable machine for a few more months, and buying a base Air, but then I might contemplate flipping that for a 16" or a 13" 4 port, leading me to near my current position.

Ultimately though, my Intel 13 setup will likely give more time for better silicon quality, software compatibility, and fixed teething troubles.

What year model are your computers? If it isn't supported by Big Sur then it's time look for a replacement.

 

[Argon_]

What year model are your computers? If it isn't supported by Big Sur then it's time look for a replacement.

-2014 MBP15 with a toasted battery. Replacing the battery would cost two thirds of the machine's value. Crashes under load unless plugged in.

-2020 MBP13 16/256 two port i5. Good silicon, stable. Bought a couple months ago because of:

-SOLD 2018 MBP15. High spec, unstable, crashed regularly under light loads. I ditched it because the stability issues hobbled my workflow, AND made non work use frustrating. I bought the 2020, which vastly improved my productivity. Sold it to a company, not an end user. Used to buy 2020 MBP.

-HP Stream laptop. Cheap, used for learning Linux.

 

[Hexley]

-2014 MBP15 with a toasted battery. Replacing the battery would cost two thirds of the machine's value. Crashes under load unless plugged in.

-2020 MBP13 16/256 two port i5. Good silicon, stable. Bought a couple months ago because of:

-SOLD 2018 MBP15. High spec, unstable, crashed regularly under light loads. I ditched it because the stability issues hobbled my workflow, AND made non work use frustrating. I bought the 2020, which vastly improved my productivity. Sold it to a company, not an end user. Used to buy 2020 MBP.

-HP Stream laptop. Cheap, used for learning Linux.

Awesome.

I'm typing this on a iMac 27-Inch "Core i7" 3.4 (Late 2012) that back in 2015 I was offered by my dad half it's value so I could buy a 2015 model while my dad gets this. Was too slow to respond so he got himself a 4K model. Sad

Last month his cousin offered to buy any of my spare Macs as his 2011 iMac had a GPU issue due to high temp from him smoking while using that iMac. Guessing the soldering melted due to the HSF being clogged with nicotine.

Imagine jumping from a 2012 to 2022 iMac. Incredible!

 

[Hexley]

Looking over Apple's M1 tech page lends some clues as to what features will likely appear in future Apple Silicon chips on early 2021 Macs such as:

• more than 16 billion transistors
• more than 16GB unified memory
• more than 4 high performance cores,
• more than 4 efficiency performance cores
• more than 10W TDP
• more than 3x high performance per watt
• more than 8 GPU cores
• more than 25k concurrent threads
• more than 16 core Neural Engine
• more than 11 trillion operations per second
• more than 18 hours of battery life

Features of future Apple Silicon to be announced on WWDC 2021 to replace desktop Core i9 and Xeon chips would have a 125W or more TDP and physical characteristics that are more than Apple Silicon chips to be announced with early 2021 Macs.