I question the published delivery times. Based on what exactly? Tea leave readings? And what is causing the delay? Interesting that during hours of calls; talking to tech, sales (pre AND post), service AND AppleCare (I purchased AppleCare+), not ONE person relayed any info regarding delays due to chip/ram/drive/screen shortages. In fact, I was told last Wed, that it would ship in "a couple of days", and that once shipped, it would take 2-4 days. The info you are relating, and someone from Apple Insider, claims chip shortages. I will continue to press Apple. It's not our responsibility to to investigate these sorts of issues. I am soon to place my second payment. They should be telling me, "Sir, we are experiencing chip shortages. Our suppliers have said to expect delivery in one to three weeks. However we cannot guarantee their claims. And sorry to say, as you know, we are not in a position to guarantee the quality of their product. If you receive a defective unit, we will first attempt to blame the shipper. IF after a hands-on inspection by our techs, it becomes clear it is a quality issue on our end, we do not have the resources to honor any warranties or guarantees; without at least a month or so of delays. WE are so over-confident that our product is perfection personified, we literally do not have ONE replacement worldwide, in case anyone encounters a defect. Nope. Not one." Now THAT would be honest.At this point, it seems pretty clear that despite the fact that the order is replacing your defective computer (which it would've been nice if they had some stock on-hand for these situations), unfortunately, they don't have your model in stock and so you're in the same queue as if you had ordered a new one 14 days ago.
If you check out the massive "Pre-Order" thread which is everyone comparing their estimated delivery dates and following the movement, the general timeline is: about 1-2 weeks before your estimated delivery window, status changes from "Processing" to "Preparing to Ship". Once it ships, and ppl get their tracking numbers, it takes about 4-7 days to clear customs in China (that's the delay right now, hopefully in a few weeks this part clears up), then it moves from Incheon, Korea to Anchorage, Alaska to Louisville, Kentucky in about 24-48hrs (assuming UPS and you're in the US). And then your computer is generally on a truck for delivery 2 days later.
So it's probably not worth the mental stress of checking every day. And just waiting until post-Thanksgiving / late November, when it's more likely there'll start to be some movement. It's a bummer that you're out of a laptop all this time, but unfortunately your situation is one of the unfair downsides of this supply-chain-logjam environment we're in.
I agree. I will stop posting updates. IF they are being honest re: current wait times; and IF they are being honest that I was put in front of the queue, with a shipping time of 2-4 days; then I predict that it will be shipped on Dec 9, delivery of Dec 15.
But the issue of Taiwan looms. What if the CCP makes good on their promise to take Taiwan? They're already sending fighter jets.
I will only post changes.
Good luck to my fellow waiting customers...