Nov 16, Day 16
Originally ordered Oct 18. Defective computer delivered Nov 1.
Day 14 of “Processing”.
No change. Replacement “Arrives Dec 8 - Dec 15”
No one from here or Apple Insider has relayed any experience regarding delivery of a non functioning M1 MacBook Pro. Beside the fact that I haven’t been able to do any work, one of the more frustrating things is reading accounts of people that took delivery of two, three, even more configurations. Some just to take advantage of Apple’s liberal return policy. Guess I am experiencing a one in a million case…
At this point, it seems pretty clear that despite the fact that the order is replacing your defective computer (which it would've been nice if they had some stock on-hand for these situations), unfortunately, they don't have your model in stock and so you're in the same queue as if you had ordered a new one 14 days ago.
If you check out the massive "Pre-Order" thread which is everyone comparing their estimated delivery dates and following the movement, the general timeline is: about 1-2 weeks before your estimated delivery window, status changes from "Processing" to "Preparing to Ship". Once it ships, and ppl get their tracking numbers, it takes about 4-7 days to clear customs in China (that's the delay right now, hopefully in a few weeks this part clears up), then it moves from Incheon, Korea to Anchorage, Alaska to Louisville, Kentucky in about 24-48hrs (assuming UPS and you're in the US). And then your computer is generally on a truck for delivery 2 days later.
So it's probably not worth the mental stress of checking every day. And just waiting until post-Thanksgiving / late November, when it's more likely there'll start to be some movement. It's a bummer that you're out of a laptop all this time, but unfortunately your situation is one of the unfair downsides of this supply-chain-logjam environment we're in.