Other What a letdown!!!!!

[vipergts2207]

Nice spin, but here is some ugly truth for you...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/cor...port-says-iphone-launch-could-be-delayed.html

Apple stock drop makes history with $179B loss

Apple shares make history on the way up and down.

www.foxbusiness.com

That doesn’t refute anything I said. Apple stock ran up over 100% in 6 months, a correction was inevitable.

 

[TiggrToo]

Nice spin, but here is some ugly truth for you...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/cor...port-says-iphone-launch-could-be-delayed.html

Apple stock drop makes history with $179B loss

Apple shares make history on the way up and down.

www.foxbusiness.com

Oh boy... That article was September 3rd. And there's zero reference in it about the delay of the iPhones.

I'm fact I can gurantee you will never be able to find a single analyst report which specifically blames the price on any delay..

You are making up a whole load of nonsense in a continuous failed attempt to back up your personal annoyances at the IUP.

 

[TiggrToo]

If Dexbell really believes this stuff, why is he wasting his time here? He should be on the phone with his broker, shorting AAPL stock.

They probably think shorting a stock involves getting a paper certificate and cutting off the end...

I've not met anyone recently so ignorant of facts yet so willing to throw buzz words around.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

To my knowledge, once a phone has been shipped to a carrier, it is marked as "sold" in Apple's accounting system because they have already been paid by the carrier. This is similar to how car sales work. GM sells a truck to a dealership and even before it is sold to a customer it is counted as a sale. This is different if no middle man is involved.

This is correct. This is standard business accounting, not something that Apple does.

Channel sales -- i.e., sales to wholesale -- are considered shipments when they leave the shipping dock. The wholesaler is the customer, not the consumer. If Jane Smith buys an iPhone from an AT&T store, she is AT&T's customer, not Apple's at least in terms of her hardware purchase.

Apple's carrier partners do not sell on consignment. They paid for and own their inventory, just like auto dealerships. That's why retail auto salespeople are so intent on selling you what they have in their lot and not special ordering a vehicle. It's their inventory.

However, iFan is likely incorrect about wholesaler/channel payment. Most likely someone like AT&T or B&H Photo orders pallets of iPhones without prepayment, Apple ships and the terms are 30-, 45-, or 60-days. Unlike direct-to-consumer sales, wholesale transactions work on credit because of a long-standing business relationship.

When you look at Apple's quarterly financials, there's always an accounts receivable line item. That number captures some of those channel accounts who have yet to pay.

There are zero consumers in that line item. Apple will not send a direct-to-consumer shipment without a valid payment, whether it be a credit card authorization, cash at a bricks-and-mortar store, whatever.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

He also fail to realize Apple produces and sells more phones than Samsung, etc. Nobody was prepared for this pandemic, not even Apple.

You are completely wrong.

Samsung sells FAR more phones than Apple. They always will because Samsung sells a lot of cheapass handsets (mostly in emerging market countries) in addition to the premium handset models that Western technology media sites cover.

One thing about these types of discussions is that it is obvious who understands investing, who understands corporate business practices, who understands international commerce, etc.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

It hasn't. Exactly 3 weeks ago today(9/4/2020) AAPL closed at $120.96. Today it closed at $112.48. That's 7%. Along with other tech stocks. View attachment 959561View attachment 959562View attachment 959563View attachment 959564

Notice any trend here? It has nothing to do with a "delayed" iPhone launch.

As much as your basic point is correct, referring to the Dow Jones Index isn't really helpful. It's a B.S. index that is pretty close to worthless in describing the overall stock market due to its limited representation.

The S&P 500 is a FAR BETTER measure of publicly traded corporate America.

However, Apple doesn't behave like Boeing, Home Depot, etc.

A more suitable index would be the Nasdaq Composite. An even better index would be the NASDAQ-100 (top 100 Nasdaq companies minus the financial sector). The latter isn't typically quoted by financial media, but the index fund QQQ (a.k.a. "cubes") is one of the most heavily invested index funds in the world. Apple should be compared against ^NDX rather than ^DJI.

Here's a better chart for AAPL's one-month performance versus various indices:

Apple's recent price decline reflects a broad market slump. I see so many discussions when this occurs and rarely do the commenters realize that Apple isn't an island.

 

[TiggrToo]

You are completely wrong.

Samsung sells FAR more phones than Apple. They always will because Samsung sells a lot of cheapass handsets (mostly in emerging market countries) in addition to the premium handset models that Western technology media sites cover.

One thing about these types of discussions is that it is obvious who understands investing, who understands corporate business practices, who understands international commerce, etc.

Last I checked Samsung have released something like 15+ models in 2020 so far. I also suspect their total sales include the Note lineup whereas iPads are counted as the tablets they are.

It's much easier to avoid supply chain disturbances when you release multiple products each year - it's why my employer has done so well in fact; as Covid struck we were quickly able to pivot to other countries such as India to source much of our manufacturing - however one part of our product line was still stuck with China so we ended up running out for a while.

 

[Obi-WannaDraw]

Last I checked Samsung have released something like 15+ models in 2020 so far. I also suspect their total sales include the Note lineup whereas iPads are counted as the tablets they are.

It's much easier to avoid supply chain disturbances when you release multiple products each year - it's why my employer has done so well in fact; as Covid struck we were quickly able to pivot to other countries such as India to source much of our manufacturing - however one part of our product line was still stuck with China so we ended up running out for a while.

Think Samsung offers 30 models on just their website alone. I saw a list recently that I actually got tired of scrolling through. Don’t know how far it went back, but it was ridiculous. You release that many handsets, in so many sizes, variants, and prices, there is no doubt you’ll be selling the most.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

No, they actually can't. You have no clue how business works do you? Apple has shareholders to answer to if they are even a week late with a product, especially their flagship product, the iPhone. They have numbers they have to meet each quarter among many other things. Why do you think Apple's stock has fallen 20% over the past three weeks? I'll give you a hint, shareholders aren't happy with the delays. Maybe read a book on business and economics.

The recent share price decline has nothing to do with iPhone shipment delays.

As I mentioned on the first page of this discussion, Apple CFO Luca Maestri gave the warning back in July. Shareholders have already been informed that the iPhone launch would be delayed by a "few weeks" (Maestri's words). That would push a late September shipment date into October which means Q4FY20 would not see the customary iPhone revenue bump due to 9 days of sales.

WE'VE ALREADY KNOWN FOR MONTHS.

As I demonstrated above, AAPL's stock has not dropped 20% in the past three weeks.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Last I checked Samsung have released something like 15+ models in 2020 so far. I also suspect their total sales include the Note lineup whereas iPads are counted as the tablets they are.

You are likely looking exclusively at Samsung's US consumer website which is the wrong M.O. Samsung only markets a small subset of their total output to the USA.

They sell tons of cheapass smartphones to emerging countries that never make it to developed nations. They still sell a bunch of "feature phones" (a.k.a. "dumbphones").

And it's not just Samsung. Japan's various companies have a long track record (going back decades) of not marketing certain products to the USA. Heck, the first Sony Walkman was a fine, compact metal-clad cassette player. The first model that was marketed in the USA was a much larger plastic-enrobed ugly behemoth.

Even today, many geeks consider a visit to Akihabara or Yodobashi a rite of passage when visiting Tokyo, just to see all the stuff that doesn't make it across the Pacific Ocean.

 

[TiggrToo]

You are likely looking exclusively at Samsung's US consumer website which is the wrong M.O. Samsung only markets a subset of their total output to the USA.

They sell tons of cheapass smartphones to emerging countries that never make it to developed nations. They still sell a bunch of "feature phones" (a.k.a. "dumbphones").

Dunno what I was reading, but it didn't seem to be US centric. The point being that we both agree that it's much much easier to produce n million widgets if there are copious variations of said Widgets spread over a 12 month period and a huge range of price points, than it is to produce the same number of only 3, or 4 variations for simultaneous release.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

I agree but I was addressing another commentor's statement that Apple produces more phones than Apple. That is patently incorrect.

Apple's iPhone models have long dominated the top "camera" rankings at Flickr because of Apple's limited product offerings.

That doesn't change the sheer number of phones that roll out of various manufacturing lines emblazoned with Samsung's logo.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Those are most SHIPPED phones, not most sold. I can guarantee you most any retailer has a TON of iPhones sitting around, how many Xiaomi phones you think they carry? Apple typically over produces the iPhone.

No one keeps 90 days of smartphone inventory. Not with ERP or JIT.

Apple's own inventory is probably 7-10 days of inventory in their own bricks-and-mortars store. Reducing inventory was one of the things Tim Cook was tasked with when he was hired by Steve Jobs.

Note that they never have enough inventory at launch. They sell out online then shipping times extend to one week or longer. Often Apple staggers the worldwide distribution by limiting the rollout to select countries. Bangladesh doesn't get the brand new iPhone the same week as the first-tier countries like USA, UK, Germany, Japan, etc.

Even if you wait in line at an Apple bricks-and-mortars store for a product launch, they usually sell out. They receive new inventory daily and yet they sell out every day for weeks.

I bet Chinese retailers carry a lot of Xiaomi and Huawei phones.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Exactly. At least announce a date or something so we can have something solid to count down to.

Ah, so consumers will stop buying during the interim. I assume you are not the CEO of a Fortune 500 company who answers to shareholders?
[automerge]1601090603[/automerge]

I figured anyone who has an account on MacRumors and cared enough to be anticipating this event wasn't likely to be that out of the loop.

Sadly you are wrong.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

I only "WANT" 5g.

What particular benefit would you imagine getting from 5G right now?

In its current implementation, it is most beneficial in locations where spectrum usage is overcommitted. This translates to heavily trafficked places like airport/public transit terminals, popular locations like Times Square in New York or theme parks, and densely packed venues like stadiums, concert halls, and sports arenas, all of which we are told to stay away from right now.

If there is any year to skip something like 5G, COVID-19 crippled 2020 would be the year.

 

[TiggrToo]

Ah, so consumers will stop buying during the interim

AKA the Osborne effect...

 

[DexBell]

It hasn't. Exactly 3 weeks ago today(9/4/2020) AAPL closed at $120.96. Today it closed at $112.48. That's 7%. Along with other tech stocks. View attachment 959561View attachment 959562View attachment 959563View attachment 959564

Notice any trend here? It has nothing to do with a "delayed" iPhone launch.

On July 30, the iPhone maker announced a 4-for-1 split that would take effect Aug. 31. From the split announcement through Sept. 1, Apple soared 40%, giving the company a staggering $2.3 trillion market cap. Then it ran out of gas, and the fall has been steep and fast. Since Apple's Sept. 1 all-time closing high of $134.18 (split adjusted) to the close on Sept. 21 at $110.08, Apple was down 18%; its market cap fell to about $1.9 trillion.

Apple Is Down Nearly 20% From Its Post-Split High: Time to Buy? | The Motley Fool

It's been an up-and-down ride for investors. Here's a look at what happened in the months after previous splits, and the company's prospects today.

www.fool.com

 

[DexBell]

Oh boy... That article was September 3rd. And there's zero reference in it about the delay of the iPhones.

I'm fact I can gurantee you will never be able to find a single analyst report which specifically blames the price on any delay..

You obviously missed this link. I can post more if you'd like...

Apple drops after report says company considers delaying next iPhone launch

Apple has launched new iPhones in September or October every year since 2011. In most years, a successful launch of the new devices, which account for over half of Apple's revenue, is critical for the company.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Phone Junky]

On July 30, the iPhone maker announced a 4-for-1 split that would take effect Aug. 31. From the split announcement through Sept. 1, Apple soared 40%, giving the company a staggering $2.3 trillion market cap. Then it ran out of gas, and the fall has been steep and fast. Since Apple's Sept. 1 all-time closing high of $134.18 (split adjusted) to the close on Sept. 21 at $110.08, Apple was down 18%; its market cap fell to about $1.9 trillion.

Apple Is Down Nearly 20% From Its Post-Split High: Time to Buy? | The Motley Fool

It's been an up-and-down ride for investors. Here's a look at what happened in the months after previous splits, and the company's prospects today.

www.fool.com

Amazon and Google performed similarly. iPhone launch has nothing to do with the stock performance. Give it up.

 

[vipergts2207]

You obviously missed this link. I can post more if you'd like...

Apple drops after report says company considers delaying next iPhone launch

Apple has launched new iPhones in September or October every year since 2011. In most years, a successful launch of the new devices, which account for over half of Apple's revenue, is critical for the company.

www.cnbc.com

You know what’s hilarious? The fact that AAPL has run up approximately 100% since that article was posted 6 months ago. Tell us more about how the iPhone delay is destroying AAPL. 😂

Woe be all the Apple stock owners who doubled their money in 6 months lol.

Also, we’re still waiting to hear what your favorite business and economic books are.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

On July 30, the iPhone maker announced a 4-for-1 split that would take effect Aug. 31. From the split announcement through Sept. 1, Apple soared 40%, giving the company a staggering $2.3 trillion market cap. Then it ran out of gas, and the fall has been steep and fast. Since Apple's Sept. 1 all-time closing high of $134.18 (split adjusted) to the close on Sept. 21 at $110.08, Apple was down 18%; its market cap fell to about $1.9 trillion.

Apple Is Down Nearly 20% From Its Post-Split High: Time to Buy? | The Motley Fool

It's been an up-and-down ride for investors. Here's a look at what happened in the months after previous splits, and the company's prospects today.

www.fool.com

And here's another graph from July 30 to today.

Hey, now, look at that! AAPL out performing the market anyhow! Even though they dropped in September like the entire market, their August runup was so massive that they are still ahead.

Based on a timeframe that YOU chose. When you described it in words, AAPL sounded bad. However you neglected to provide any reference point. The graph above shows it.

Yes, AAPL dropped a lot this month but the rest of the market did far worse. In fact, the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 is barely +1% since AAPL's split announcement. By contrast, AAPL itself is +16.7%. Since the NASDAQ-100 is a market-cap weighted index, it's pretty reasonable to say that AAPL did more than its share in propping up that index.

Note that AAPL's share split was irrelevant. The entire stock market dropped on the 3rd of September and most companies did not split a few days earlier. The whole market was overbought.

Say, if you want to make your argument sound convincing, maybe you should pick dates that actually show AAPL underperforming the market.

That doesn't change the fact that the market has put more faith in AAPL than most of its NASDAQ-100 peers.

But as you were...

 

[Momof2.1107]

You are completely wrong.

Samsung sells FAR more phones than Apple. They always will because Samsung sells a lot of cheapass handsets (mostly in emerging market countries) in addition to the premium handset models that Western technology media sites cover.

One thing about these types of discussions is that it is obvious who understands investing, who understands corporate business practices, who understands international commerce, etc.

Say what you want Apple still sells more devices in a quarter than Samsung do. Samsung have to sell cheap handsets in emerging markets and I heard they include their other devices along with their cell phone sales.

 

[Tsepz]

Say what you want Apple still sells more devices in a quarter than Samsung do. Samsung have to sell cheap handsets in emerging markets and I heard they include their other devices along with their cell phone sales.

Apple typically sell more premium phones than Samsung and any other phone manufacturer, it’s also the reason why Apple still holds the most profits in mobile
Global Phone Profits: Apple 66%, Samsung 17%, Everyone Else: Unlucky 13%

Global Phone Profits: Apple 66%, Samsung 17%, Everyone Else: Unlucky 13%

But overall profits dropped 11% ...

www.forbes.com

I doubt this will change this year, I think Apple may actually take more of it seeing as they are the only ones able to sell Flagships at high numbers.

And here's another graph from July 30 to today.

View attachment 959597

Hey, now, look at that! AAPL out performing the market anyhow! Even though they dropped in September like the entire market, their August runup was so massive that they are still ahead.

Based on a timeframe that YOU chose. When you described it in words, AAPL sounded bad. However you neglected to provide any reference point. The graph above shows it.

Yes, AAPL dropped a lot this month but the rest of the market did far worse. In fact, the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 is barely +1% since AAPL's split announcement. By contrast, AAPL itself is +16.7%. Since the NASDAQ-100 is a market-cap weighted index, it's pretty reasonable to say that AAPL did more than its share in propping up that index.

Note that AAPL's share split was irrelevant. The entire stock market dropped on the 3rd of September and most companies did not split a few days earlier. The whole market was overbought.

Say, if you want to make your argument sound convincing, maybe you should pick dates that actually show AAPL underperforming the market.

That doesn't change the fact that the market has put more faith in AAPL than most of its NASDAQ-100 peers.

But as you were...

Unfortunately Dex doesn’t do facts at all, with that said, this was a great read for the rest of us.

 

[TiggrToo]

You obviously missed this link. I can post more if you'd like...

Apple drops after report says company considers delaying next iPhone launch

Apple has launched new iPhones in September or October every year since 2011. In most years, a successful launch of the new devices, which account for over half of Apple's revenue, is critical for the company.

www.cnbc.com

We can all see that you're desperately trying to find anything, anything at all, that you feel backs up your position.

So, now you quote an article from earlier in the year, but you know what? It's meaningless because that was a momentary drop that quickly reversed. And those drops happen all the time.

Again, quote an article that states that Apple's stock price has been adversely affected (e.g. it has underperformed compared to similar stocks in the Nasdaq) due to the delay of the new iPhone.

 

[Obi-WannaDraw]

So, to summarize this whole thread: Apple didn’t announce the new iPhone lineup yet. Apple is doing just fine and still worth a couple dollars. Apple will release what they want when they want. And those that won’t stop complaining about the release date and how Apple has ruined their lives over the last month, will do a 180 and be posting happy pics when they finally get their new devices.

Sound about right?