What investments are you getting in to? Funds? Stocks? Gold? Virtual currency???

[Erehy Dobon]

Can anyone name a good source to judge economic sector relative strength?
Thanks

Since I am a Fidelity client I know that Fidelity has regular reports (quarterly?) on which sectors are stronger. Fidelity clients can sign up for these free webinars.

Unlike most brokerages Fidelity does not make recommendations on individual stocks, they only make sector suggestions.

You should look at the offerings of your brokerage firm's client education center for similar seminars. It's in a brokerage's better interest to have educated clients who have sufficient knowledge about how to assess investment opportunities so they can make informed, thoughtful decisions based on their individual appetite for risk tolerance and how much time they want to spend on their involvement.

 

[rainafterthesun]

Stock market index ETFs have been acknowledged by most investment advisors as beating individual stocks over time. Unless you just had unusually bad timing. Vanguard index ETFs are especially well regarded. I have these ETFs and over the years they've done exceptionally well without the volatility of individual stocks. Also, many people don't have the time or knowledge to create their own index funds, and these are the safest routes to solid market investments.

I said I wouldn’t invest in voo now, at $340 something.

I still have my voo position. I actually got my sister to buy it around mid-March of 2020.

you’re not saying anything to contradict what I’ve said. However, I’ll be interested in having this conversation again in twenty-to-thirty years.

 

[Richard8655]

I said I wouldn’t invest in voo now, at $340 something.

I still have my voo position. I actually got my sister to buy it around mid-March of 2020.

you’re not saying anything to contradict what I’ve said. However, I’ll be interested in having this conversation again in twenty-to-thirty years.

The way the world is going to hell in a handbasket, who knows what life will be like in 20-30 years. I too would hold off on VOO right now until maybe a major dip or correction.

 

[rainafterthesun]

The way the world is going to hell in a handbasket, who knows what life will be like in 20-30 years. I too would hold off on VOO right now until maybe a major dip or correction.

No, I meant I would revisit the whole index funds will outperform remark—maybe in the past but I think the world is ever-changing thus the screenshot I posted prior. It’s actually a huge thing coming from oaktree capital.

 

[Richard8655]

No, I meant I would revisit the whole index funds will outperform remark—maybe in the past but I think the world is ever-changing thus the screenshot I posted prior. It’s actually a huge thing coming from oaktree capital.

Based on my reading, index funds should do well overall in the coming years, even likely this. But to each his own where we get our advice and predictions.

 

[KaliYoni]

I rely on financial markets to make my living. Now, I don't know if you all trade for fun or are trying to live off your portfolios or something in between so I just have a few quick comments about this discussion:

*Gains and losses in isolation don't mean much. If you choose a benchmark to manage against, you'll have a better idea of how you're doing and of how to set up your strategy.

*The idea that index funds outperform individual holdings over time is based on academic studies done on diversification and risk (and don't forget in finance theory, "risk" means variation in returns not probability of a loss). In other words, theory doesn't say "holding SPY will always do better than buying TSLA". It's more like investing in an index will give you a smoother ride and more consistent returns than holding a small number of individual stocks.

*Two of the biggest drags on performance for individuals are fees and overtrading.

*I treat cryptocurrencies as collectibles, like art, cars, baseball cards, or tulip bulbs, not financial assets. They don't really have much intrinsic value, if any, and are only valuable because a certain group of people agree they're valuable at a given moment.

*The "free trades" offered by brokers aren't really free. No, there aren't direct commissions any more. But the brokers make up for that by selling your trading data and intentions to professional traders (official term: selling order flow).

 

[Huntn]

This is also what led to TD being brought out by schwab who was the first to start w/no fee on equity trades.

options, foreign markets, certain mutual funds, etc all still have fees.



This is for people who don’t want to take any risk or have any thoughts as to what to invest in—motif was an interesting choice to do investing with before schwab brought them out. You build your own mini index but much more customizable.

I brought voo when it hit a low of $211-$215 roughly and I wouldn’t buy it now.



What do you mean? Specifically area for research? Or do you mean actual securities.



You can do well with trading if you take the emotional part of it out—and if you can recognize patterns, keep up with news/market.

trading is not difficult. Learning to not time the market is difficult.

as for Bitcoin:

View attachment 1714225

Regarding economic sectors, just a report on relative economic sector strength, not specific securities.
Something along these lines: https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/sectors_in_market.jhtml

Not relating this comment to sectors, I have discovered quickly that just knowing the name of a good stock is not enough, and that setting the stop loss too close to the actual price maybe safe, but it’s not going to make you much money unless you are lucky. And that I don’t want to spend a lot of time researching stocks for good buy points, unlike my Dad who has made trading stocks a job, a job that he has done well, spends a lot of time at, and is up handsomely this year.

Consequently, I am looking at stock choosing services, that claim to do the a lot of the work for you. My Dad is strong proponent of IBD, I have a trial 5 week subscription for $5 and have been evaluating them, along with a 30 day free trial to Gorilla Trades, which at first blush I really like if the goal is to not spend a lot of time hovering over the stock market. They provide the names of stocks, buy points, stop loss number, first target and second target. The monthly price is not bad $45, but I don’t like that they expect you to buy a year subscription Instead of month to month.

 

[Huntn]

I rely on financial markets to make my living. Now, I don't know if you all trade for fun or are trying to live off your portfolios or something in between so I just have a few quick comments about this discussion:

*Gains and losses in isolation don't mean much. If you choose a benchmark to manage against, you'll have a better idea of how you're doing and of how to set up your strategy.

*The idea that index funds outperform individual holdings over time is based on academic studies done on diversification and risk (and don't forget in finance theory, "risk" means variation in returns not probability of a loss). In other words, theory doesn't say "holding SPY will always do better than buying TSLA". It's more like investing in an index will give you a smoother ride and more consistent returns than holding a small number of individual stocks.

*Two of the biggest drags on performance for individuals are fees and overtrading.

*I treat cryptocurrencies as collectibles, like art, cars, baseball cards, or tulip bulbs, not financial assets. They don't really have much intrinsic value, if any, and are only valuable because a certain group of people agree they're valuable at a given moment.

*The "free trades" offered by brokers aren't really free. No, there aren't direct commissions any more. But the brokers make up for that by selling your trading data and intentions to professional traders (official term: selling order flow).

For myself, my retirement fund is in a Fidelity managed account, with fairly conservative parameters a choice I made when I retired. This trading talk is for fun, with a relatively small amount about $10k.

 

[Huntn]

Since I am a Fidelity client I know that Fidelity has regular reports (quarterly?) on which sectors are stronger. Fidelity clients can sign up for these free webinars.

Unlike most brokerages Fidelity does not make recommendations on individual stocks, they only make sector suggestions.

You should look at the offerings of your brokerage firm's client education center for similar seminars. It's in a brokerage's better interest to have educated clients who have sufficient knowledge about how to assess investment opportunities so they can make informed, thoughtful decisions based on their individual appetite for risk tolerance and how much time they want to spend on their involvement.

Knowing relative sector strengths is an important bit of knowledge imo.

 

[KaliYoni]

I don’t want to spend a lot of time researching stocks for good buy points

You might want to look into trend following. Using trend following methods can help you trade less emotionally while not requiring as much headspace or time as analyzing fundamentals or setting up collars around positions. As well, you can still get the fun part of choosing companies, sectors, regions, or market cap sizes without the need to do a deep dive on every idea.

A book that lays out a lot of the basics is Trend Following (Michael Covel). This book does have flaws, particularly in tone–it's evangelistic–but it can be a good starting point for thinking about incorporating trend following into your portfolios.

 

[rainafterthesun]

In other words, theory doesn't say "holding SPY will always do better than buying TSLA"not

Not just Tesla. I brought Amazon in again around mid March. Kicked myself for missing Shopify.

this is all kids play.

I don’t have the $$$$$$ to play with lps yet but a good client has over $20mm in an ira alone and no, not yet retirement age, majority due to lps. I don’t aim for that as he’s a former hedge fund manager and I’m just a mere dabbler but it doesn’t take a genius to realize that the index having years of:
16, -32, -10, 2, 15, 30, 25 = roughly average of 7% (6.57) that throwing in $100k will yield the same result.

$100k in that scenario will be $135,319.64

in the 6.57 average it’s $156,116.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Regarding economic sectors, just a report on relative economic sector strength, not specific securities.
Something along these lines: https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/sectors_in_market.jhtml

Again Fidelity places a strong emphasis on sector analysis because A.) they want people to buy their sector funds and B.) they don't recommend individual companies.

Here's the last (Q4 2020) sector analysis report:

Stock market outlook: 3 themes from Denise Chisholm | Fidelity

Here’s what Denise Chisholm, Fidelity’s Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, expects from the stock market: more room to run for US stocks in general and the tech sector in particular.

www.fidelity.com

Unsurprisingly there is another live sector report webinar coming up January 27, 2021 free for Fidelity clients:

Quarterly Sector Update | Sector Investing Webinar | Fidelity

Fidelity's insights on sector performance and discussion on the business cycle in the economy. Register for our sector webinar here.

www.fidelity.com

The page you linked to also drills down into industry performance for many of the major sectors. Clicking on the "Chart Performance" button shows broad 1 yr. performance.

You could apply KaliYoni's trend following technique to any given sector or industry.

 

[Huntn]

Thread Revival!
My Dad made >$20k on Tesla stock recently, so I was inspired and although I stopped personally managing my 401k account, (turned it over to a managed Fidelity account when I retired), I have decided to put a small amount of $$ into my TDAmeritrade account and do a little trading.

I was amazed when I discovered that TDAmeritrade does not charge a commission for trade. This takes a little bit of a load off my mind, when I can get into and out of stocks with no charge! ?

One thing concerns me a bit, I used to have the impression that Stop Losses were effective as long as they are in effect, but I was advised by TDA customer service advisor in a discussion that Stop losses were only effective during normal market hours. That after market closure during extended hours they don’t necessarily work with a significant drop of the stock during that time.

As I recall during market hours a stop loss acts as a limit order, but once the price is hit, it coverts to a market order, and sells at the next sale price. But during extended hours the market is closed, so if the price is skipped in a drop, it never executes, or it does not execute as a market order until the market opens and by then the price maybe well below the stop price you designated. Anyone know?

I’m scheduled for a tour of the Think or Swim Trading Software, so I’ll get clarification on this.

After playing around with this for 3 weeks, I don’t know why I ever thought I could do it. It requires more attention than I want to give it. Playing with $10k, at one point I was up about $300, now I’m about -$100.

I also looked at some stock advice services, Gorilla Trades, they tell you what to do, IBD gives you a lot of stock info, but you decide when to buy, and Motley Fool who urges long term stock holding.

Motley Fool was the most amazing, talking about the huge rise of Amazon stock, while simo telling you that it lost 90% of it’s value during the dot.com crash and took 7 years to recover. That kind of devotion would take a real leap of faith, and is completely contrary to the CANSLIM method of accepting no more than a 7% loss, which does not prevent you from selling and reacquiring the stock later during its rebound. Their point is if you had kept it it would be worth millions now, just like Apple. But it’s a huge risk riding a stock down, no matter how good you think the fundamentals of a company are.

Anyway cheap lessened leaned. I’m out.

And on a side note, heard about this profiled on MSNBC last night about a group of small investors raising hell with a hedge fund, lol.

GameStop? Reddit? Explaining what's happening in the stock market

Here's a guide to understanding what's going on with GameStop and what the frenzy means for the stock market.

news.yahoo.com

 

[KaliYoni]

It requires more attention than I want to give it.

That's a good reason to stop, especially before you've devoted a lot of time and $$$! And if you've made a hundred bucks for your trouble, even better.

 

[vipergts2207]

Anyone investing in cannabis stocks? I got into them back before Canadian legalization. Now that there looks to be possible movement on US reforms, they're heating up big time again. My trading portfolio is pretty much 100% weed stocks and warrants. I also just got into trading options as well. Just calls so far.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Several years ago I had a handful of shares of individual cannabis companies as a lark. I also had some funds like MJ and YOLO.

They underperform the NASDAQ-100 and don't react like an S&P 500 index fund to normal economic factors.

But after about six months I dumped my cannabis holdings. It was never more than 3% of my total portfolio though.

 

[vipergts2207]

Several years ago I had a handful of shares of individual cannabis companies as a lark. I also had some funds like MJ and YOLO.

They underperform the NASDAQ-100 and don't react like an S&P 500 index fund to normal economic factors.

But after about six months I dumped my cannabis holdings. It was never more than 3% of my total portfolio though.

It depends when you're playing them. I was in them heavily during the Canadian legalization phase. Divested mostly afterwards, holding a generally small position. Went back in them with more this past Fall on the possibility of a Biden win. Invested even more after Democrats took both Senate seats. And then after this week's announcement from Schumer and others I went basically all in on my trading account. I'm going to move a couple thousand more into my account next week as well. My account is up almost 18% on the week.

This isn't a long-term play, but if you go back and look at the time period during Canadian legalization, the stocks absolutely soared on hype. Of course they eventually crashed right around legalization, as valuations were unrealistic and folks wanted to cash out. I'm planning on riding the hype train again for the US side. Should be good, especially considering the US has ~10 times the population of Canada. A little bit of my timing last time was luck. My honeymoon started the weekend before legalization became official, but I didn't want to constantly be checking my portfolio while I was on it so I sold pretty much everything basically right at the top. Lessons I'll be keeping in mind this time as well. I'm planning on being highly aggressive early on and then backing out profits every so often to lock in gains.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Well I prefer to have a more diversified portfolio.

I might try out cannabis investments again once there's a 3x leveraged ETF. But that's not happening anytime soon.

 

[vipergts2207]

Cannabis sector still just roaring. I keep expecting a pullback, but it never comes. My portfolio is up over 10% today. That might have set a personal record.

 

[960design]

Whats your hot stock?

Microsoft +32% last year
Apple +74% last year
Tesla +438% last year

I missed the AMD hike, just watched it climb. I was lucky on the Tesla, caught it right before the climb.
Stayed out of crypto. Which is so weird. Back in 2010 I hashed a bunch on my 'super computer' just as an exercise in technology. Donated that computer and 40" monitor to a shelter after wiping it in 2014. Yep, wiped probably a couple hundred Bitcoin or more. A while back ( 2 years? ) picked up half million ETN, but have not made anything on it.

Doing pretty good from last year. We shall see how this year goes.
Almost enough to buy my dream home and retire:

 

[960design]

All gold related stocks. Been working for a gold mining company for the past 12 years.

Dad always told me to invest in what you know.

 

[960design]

What do you think about buying from small startups? Can't that perform better in the long term? More risky?

Yes it can, but it is more risky. Start with $1000 in some strong blue chip ( Apple or Microsoft ). Then throw $100 at a risky stock each month (same or new one), let it ride. Pretend that money is just lost on booze or women, you'll never get it back. Keep investing the real money in the strong blues that you like.

 

[MBAir2010]

Microsoft +32% last year
Apple +74% last year
Tesla +438% last year

I missed the AMD hike, just watched it climb. I was lucky on the Tesla, caught it right before the climb.
Stayed out of crypto. Which is so weird. Back in 2010 I hashed a bunch on my 'super computer' just as an exercise in technology. Donated that computer and 40" monitor to a shelter after wiping it in 2014. Yep, wiped probably a couple hundred Bitcoin or more. A while back ( 2 years? ) picked up half million ETN, but have not made anything on it.

Doing pretty good from last year. We shall see how this year goes.
Almost enough to buy my dream home and retire:
View attachment 1727264

Does that boat have a cable attachment to the top of the mast for radio communications?

 

[960design]

Brass in the form of .223/5.56
Steel & aluminum in the form of an AR & a couple of 1911’s. Picking up powder & promote this weekend as well , got about 80#’s of leas ready to cast .45 pills

That's my zombie investments.
Got a couple hundred M855s sitting in a box. I burned up all my M193 at the range and have not been able to pick anymore up. I used to buy a couple Federal 420 Ammo Cans of the 193. Now, I cannot even find any.

 

[960design]

Pretty sure I've had at least 200 failed ventures over my lifetime, with just a handful of successful ones.

Failing is learning how to succeed.