I agreed with all of your points except for this one. This is highly debatable. There are plenty of people out there that exactly WANT to decide what TV content they have and pay for only that. This is the reason you see all this push of Ala carte from the cable providers (which they will only do with their dying breath ofcourse). Apple TV as an ala carte tv substitute, IF they had the content (they currently don't), AND the right price (nix on that one too)...and advertised as such, would be hugely popular....
Yes, the way that a lot of cable companies, itunes, and others are going is down the path of ala-carte pay-per-view progamming.
But is this what the general, non-technology minded person wants to do at the end of a long day at work? No.
From a marketing perspective, consumers are fundamentally lazy. They don't want to have to think about what they want to watch on TV. They want to sit down in front of the set, and flick through the channels until they find something that entertains them.
You or I might prefer to watch the next season of "Lost" by downloading the entire series from itunes and watching it when and where we want to on our ATV's and iPhones. But the vast majority of the viewing public (I would say in the order of 90%+) wants to watch it the way they always have ("tune in at the same time next week").
Maybe this style of TV watching might be completely replaced by the ala carte style over the next 5 to 10 years, when society embraces downloadable digital media to a greater extent than it has now. But that is not the case at the moment.
The other thing is that in areas of the world outside of the US, the general public is used to getting a lot of their TV content for free (Australia) or close to it (UK and Europe), rather than being locked into cable plans like you are in the US.
It is a pretty hard sell to say to tell people that they have to pay through the nose for the privalege of watching content that they are used to watching (and still can - often in better resolution) for free the same way they always have.
There has to be some kind of an incentive for consumers to change the way they do things. As I said earlier, with the ipod, it directly replaced the walkmans and discmans that people were using with a product that was better on all levels.
If Apple want consumers to change the way the way they watch TV, then there has to be more of an incentive to change than there is currently.