JPack's analysis was actually correct—he just reached the wrong conclusion from it. His analysis said two things: (1) Because of stock levels, the M1 MBA won't be discontinued; and (b) Because of a lack of noise about a new model (regulatory filings, etc.), an M2 MBA won't be released.
These were both correct.
What he didn't anticipate was that an M2 MBA would be announced but not released at WWDC, which is what happened.
Yes, what really surprised was Apple ate the $100-$150 "price cut" that we would have expected for a 18 month old product. Without such a cut, Apple can paper launch almost anything between $999-$1,999. They could paper launch iPhone 14 today at $899 without negatively affecting iPhone 13 revenue. We didn't see this level of inflationary adjustment three months ago with SE3.