ARM based MacBook Pro discussion [merged]

[Fishrrman]

maflynn wrote:
"The issue for me is, getting a 2015 model, just kicks the can down the road, and I'm not sure I like what is coming down the road with Apple."

I've posted this before, but I consider buying the 2015 MBPro 13" (in December of 2016) instead of the just-released 2016 model to be the wisest "computer-buying choice" I've made in 30+ years...

Absolutely no regrets.
The "old instead of new" doesn't bother me in the least.
Not when "the old" is BETTER THAN having "the new" ...

 

[PowerGala]

But yet Intel is just struggling to meet their deadlines and the level of innovation built into the those processors have suffered because of Intel's woes.

That’s true, but you still need something to replace the x86 with. I just can’t imagine Apple having something today that can perform like a Xenon, i7 or i9. Maybe in 5 years or so, but not now. Maybe I’m wrong and they have something than can smoke the Xenons, but it seems doubtful to me since I’ve yet to see ARM being used for high level Workstation applications.

Like the Nintendo Switch is a gaming console with a dedicated GPU. It’s pretty impressive for what it is, but it’s not exactly at the performance level of a PlayStation 4. It’s portable, so that’s not really fair, but to me it’s indicative that ARM is still behind x86 for high level applications. With that said, the performance is still pretty impressive considering where we were just 5 years ago.

I’d love to see Apple prove me wrong, but for the most part ARM has been developed with battery life in mind. It’s going to take time for it to catch up if that’s what Apple wants to do.

 

[bluecoast]

Thinking a little more about this, I'm wondering why there's a fair bit of resistance on this forum against Apple ditching x86.

Exactly what (mainstream) software would we all (potentially) be missing out on?

And what could any positives be from moving to ARM (and let's assume that Marzipan would be part of this).

MS Office
Office on the Mac has always been a step behind the Windows version, whether it has a G series processor or one from Intel.

Mind you, even before any potential switch, there is a cause for optimism as MS seem now to be doing their utmost to make Office platform agnostic as they're interested (like Apple) in the subscriptions that they'll get from it i.e. Office 365.

So it's not in Microsoft's interest here to ditch the Mac.

And given that Apple and MS work closer together today than they have for a long time, you'd expect that Apple will have a team working with them to help with any transition (although I have absolutely no evidence for this)

Adobe
This is the tricky one.

Now, I don't use Adobe CS at all, but I do know that they bang their own drum and always seem to use their own libraries and frameworks.

So potentially, this will be a very rough move we can expect Adobe to drag their feet over it (as they did moving from the G5 to x86).

So let's assume the worse with Adobe (and we probably won't be disappointed).

But like many on this forum, let's also assume that any Mac that Apple sells with 'Pro' in its title will be the last to move to ARM - so Adobe will have time.

On the positive, there's a lot of great iOS image editing/creation and video editing software - for consumers and pro-sumers it could be a very great thing if they all come over to the Mac.

Games
OK, I've played games on my Mac ever since I've had a Mac. But we all have to admit that being a Mac gamer is a very niche occupation indeed and that practically all of Apple's machines are simply not built for gaming in mind.

So even to be a Mac gamer right now is the equivalent of swimming upstream.

However, let's think of all of the games from iOS that can move to the Mac and how important gaming is to iOS.

Yes, I know that iOS gaming is mostly casual gaming, however with the iPad and the Mac on ARM let's hope that software developers see an opportunity to bring more complex games over to more powerful Mac platforms.

Other Software
Over to anyone else - what other software could be endangered by this move?

One proviso - it has to be relatively mainstream.

EDIT: Of course, I forgot to mention Windows. TLDR version: Windows is already on ARM and you can buy ARM laptops. Apparently it isn't that great right now, but I think it's safe to say that we can expect it to improve.

 

[PeterJP]

I'm confident given 2-3 more years the linux desktop will be caught up in most areas

I've been thinking it would take 2-3 years since I first installed Linux in 1992. Having become older and less naive, I don't think it's going to happen. Progress happens when somebody takes the reins and drags the rest along. In server Linux, that has happens. Unfortunately, open source GUI software is either going nowhere, or it insists that weird and outdated interfaces are somehow better (GIMP).

I don’t think they’re at a place to replace x86.

The new A76 core seems great. Devices expected by the end of the year: https://www.anandtech.com/show/12785/arm-cortex-a76-cpu-unveiled-7nm-powerhouse

 

[KensaiMage]

So... no new macs announced at WWDC 2018. What now? Same keyboard... :x

 

[alex0002]

Other Software
Over to anyone else - what other software could be endangered by this move?

Music production: Pro Tools in the Studio and Ableton Live is widely used in live performances.
Fruity Loops was created for windows and just got ported to the Mac.
http://www.thefader.com/2018/05/22/fruity-loops-fl-studio-20-mac-download

The new A76 core seems great. Devices expected by the end of the year: https://www.anandtech.com/show/12785/arm-cortex-a76-cpu-unveiled-7nm-powerhouse

In the low end of the MacBook and MBP range it makes a lot of sense, but I wonder how long before musicians are ready to trust them to control their live music performance at Glastonbury or Coachella.

 

[Clix Pix]

maflynn wrote:
"The issue for me is, getting a 2015 model, just kicks the can down the road, and I'm not sure I like what is coming down the road with Apple."

I've posted this before, but I consider buying the 2015 MBPro 13" (in December of 2016) instead of the just-released 2016 model to be the wisest "computer-buying choice" I've made in 30+ years...

Absolutely no regrets.
The "old instead of new" doesn't bother me in the least.
Not when "the old" is BETTER THAN having "the new" ...

In late November/early December of 2015 (prior to the arrival of the 2016 MBPs and while they were still somewhat of a mystery) I made the decision to buy a 15" 2015 MBP and like Fisherrman, I have absolutely no regrets at having done this and two and a half years later am still very happy that I bought this machine when I did. She's my workhorse and I suspect she will continue to be for probably another two years if not longer..... Several months after I'd bought my 2015 MBP and the new 2016 MBPs were finally out on the market, with complaints already starting, a friend commented to me, "you really dodged a bullet, you bought the right machine at the right time!" I sure did and I am so happy that I did. Je ne regrette rien......

Sorry, I know that this doesn't help others who are caught up now in what to do with regard to their own next computer purchase even as an aging machine at home is signaling that it is time to think about a replacement...... All we can do is hope that in the next release Apple will have resolved some of the issues that have arisen with the current line of MBPs, especially the keyboard thing.

 

[solarflab]

That's a great summary of the issue, one of the best that I've ever read.

Some questions though:

Mac Pro
Why do you think that Apple are taking so long to create a Mac Pro if ARM isn't involved in this in some shape or form?

Initially I thought that this meant it was planning a 100% ARM Mac Pro, but I wonder if we'll see ARM being used with Intel in conjunction to drive macOS and its apps, so that Apple has an 'upgrade path' to finally transition the machine fully to ARM when they have fast enough chips.

It shouldn't take them 18 months or so to create a headless workstation computer, surely?

That's why I suspect that something similar to the above is in development.

iMac
Do you not think that the iMac will go to ARM pretty quickly at the 21 inch screen 4k end?

Most of the components that could power a MacBook could be used for these computers, surely?

I wouldn't expect that the iMac 5ks to move to ARM - but who knows, maybe they might. Those machines are obviously aimed at graphic and web designers so maybe an ARM processor will be able to handle that sort of work sooner than we think.

Whatever the case, I think that the transition to ARM will create a clear divide between Apple's consumer and pro computers in the first few years.

I contend that that's a good thing, as it will (hopefully) take the agonising decision making out of buying an Apple laptops as it should be fairly clear what the proposition for each machine is.

Although it'll be sad for people like us on these forums as we won't have so much to debate!

There is no ARM-based processor in existence today nor will there be within 10-15 years that will be able to compete with intel in the market that a potential Mac Pro will be competing in. What you have written demonstrates to me that most people that talk about this topic don`t actually understand it. Apple is not some magical company that can undoe years of research and resources that intel and amd have put into cpu developement. People tend to forget that intel and amd will be moving forward at the same time as apple is developing their own ARM-cpu. A potential ARM-based macbook will most likely run some kind of hybrid MacOS, and apples commitement to running ios apps on macos, as shown in the wwdc18 keynote is, in my opinoion the proof for that.

 

[maflynn]

MS Office
Office on the Mac has always been a step behind the Windows version

MS has made strides to make Office:Mac to be feature parity with its windows version. For me, I find the rendering and using of Office in Windows to be better then the Mac.

Adobe
This is the tricky one.

I use Lightroom (and very light PS) and I'm happy with how it performs on both platforms ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Games
OK, I've played games on my Mac

Games on windows is vastly superior in quantity and quality. I don't see that changing anytime soon, and I don't consider the future of OSX running ios games as a defining moment. Those iphone games are designe for a tiny screen not a 13" or 15" screen.

Other Software
Over to anyone else

Over the years of using Macs, I've built up quite a stable of small but handy apps and utilities. I'll have to work on finding a window's counterpart. For instance OmniDiskSweeper, or EasyFind.

What now? Same keyboard

Same keyboard, same GPU and processor. Apple is selling Kaby lake based laptops for almost 3k (for 15" models) while their competitors are on Coffee Lake and selling for a lot less (with quality keyboards).

In late November/early December of 2015 (prior to the arrival of the 2016 MBPs and while they were still somewhat of a mystery) I made the decision to buy a 15" 2015 MBP

I still have an issue spending almost 2k for an older computer like that. I'm not sure where I mentioend this, but I have seen some good deals on craigslist and that might be an option.

 

[allonym]

The new A76 core seems great. Devices expected by the end of the year: https://www.anandtech.com/show/12785/arm-cortex-a76-cpu-unveiled-7nm-powerhouse

Perhaps I'm missing something, but in GeekBench it seems on a par with Apple's A10:

That makes it 2 years behind, no?

 

[robbietop]

That's a great summary of the issue, one of the best that I've ever read.

Thanks

Some questions though:

Mac Pro
Why do you think that Apple are taking so long to create a Mac Pro if ARM isn't involved in this in some shape or form?

My guess with the Mac Pro is that a team spent a year trying to fix the design dead end they'd backed themselves into. They then tried to redesign it and failed. Then Steve died and there was a reorg and they spec bumped. Then Tim probably shifted them into helping to resolve some other issue. Then they forgot about it. Then they remembered and had an OH **** moment and realized they needed a successor. That's when the iMac Pro went into the pipeline about 2 years ago. They then more than likely argued between a better trash can design or just bringing back the G5 aluminum box chassis. My money is on a G5 chassis that is HELLA upgradeable.

Initially I thought that this meant it was planning a 100% ARM Mac Pro, but I wonder if we'll see ARM being used with Intel in conjunction to drive macOS and its apps, so that Apple has an 'upgrade path' to finally transition the machine fully to ARM when they have fast enough chips.

ARM will never be in the Mac Pro. It is not capable at this time of addressing the 128GB of RAM necessary in future setups. Not only that but ARM will not be able to achieve the cycle performance of an i7 or i9 in its current form. ARM is about conserving energy. The Mac Pro could care less about power consumption.

It shouldn't take them 18 months or so to create a headless workstation computer, surely?

First you need a chassis. They more than likely had an argument over trash can versus rectangular aluminum G5. That could be 4 months. During that time, you have to get a feel for Intel and ask them about the Internal Roadmap. What kind of chips are in the pipeline? You don't want to release a new product only to have to spec bump 4 months later. So, there's a timing issue. Lastly, you need to figure out the limitations of the machine, what are max RAM and Clock going to be? Then you have to make sure OS X can control that amount of power. So, there's coding and timing and hardware and engineering all coordinating together. That's a bunch of resources focused on a product that isn't even 0.01% of their revenue stream.

That's why I suspect that something similar to the above is in development.

iMac
Do you not think that the iMac will go to ARM pretty quickly at the 21 inch screen 4k end?

ARM isn't the GPU. It's a custom GPU in the iPhone and iPad. It's why they're deprecating OpenGL. It would make sense to put an ARM in a low cost iMac and then let nVidia or AMD handle the graphics. Problem is making the customer aware of this and now you have to assemble the iMac in to different locations (ARM licensing).

Most of the components that could power a MacBook could be used for these computers, surely?

Yes and no. The MacBook 12 uses a Celeron M, which would severely underpower the current iMac.

I wouldn't expect that the iMac 5ks to move to ARM - but who knows, maybe they might. Those machines are obviously aimed at graphic and web designers so maybe an ARM processor will be able to handle that sort of work sooner than we think.

The iMac 5ks could move tomorrow. As said above, the GPU in the iPhone is not ARM, it is a custom build Apple designed with a British group.

Whatever the case, I think that the transition to ARM will create a clear divide between Apple's consumer and pro computers in the first few years.

As an engineer, I see ARM as great for MacBook 12 and maybe a cheap iMac. But you're asking alot of a technology most people clearly do not understand. ARM is NOT a power architecture. It can crunch, but it is not even in the same ballpark as the i5 and not even in the same solar system as the i7. The A12 and A13 may change this, but ARM is low memory and low power processing. It was not designed to do what a 2.9Ghz i9 CISC with 16GB DDR4 can do. It was designed for a 2.2Ghz RISC, low power with 3-4 GB of low power RAM. ARM is not a RAW data parser. It is designed to do simple actions relentlessly (touch input, radio actualization, display video, etc). MacBook Pro and Mac Pro use cases are just too much for such a small architecture to handle at the current time.

 

[solarflab]

Massive awesome wall of text.

Thank you, finally someone that understands and knows how to convey the information.

 

[bluecoast]

Thanks




My guess with the Mac Pro is that a team spent a year trying to fix the design dead end they'd backed themselves into. They then tried to redesign it and failed. Then Steve died and there was a reorg and they spec bumped. Then Tim probably shifted them into helping to resolve some other issue. Then they forgot about it. Then they remembered and had an OH **** moment and realized they needed a successor. That's when the iMac Pro went into the pipeline about 2 years ago. They then more than likely argued between a better trash can design or just bringing back the G5 aluminum box chassis. My money is on a G5 chassis that is HELLA upgradeable.



ARM will never be in the Mac Pro. It is not capable at this time of addressing the 128GB of RAM necessary in future setups. Not only that but ARM will not be able to achieve the cycle performance of an i7 or i9 in its current form. ARM is about conserving energy. The Mac Pro could care less about power consumption.



First you need a chassis. They more than likely had an argument over trash can versus rectangular aluminum G5. That could be 4 months. During that time, you have to get a feel for Intel and ask them about the Internal Roadmap. What kind of chips are in the pipeline? You don't want to release a new product only to have to spec bump 4 months later. So, there's a timing issue. Lastly, you need to figure out the limitations of the machine, what are max RAM and Clock going to be? Then you have to make sure OS X can control that amount of power. So, there's coding and timing and hardware and engineering all coordinating together. That's a bunch of resources focused on a product that isn't even 0.01% of their revenue stream.



ARM isn't the GPU. It's a custom GPU in the iPhone and iPad. It's why they're deprecating OpenGL. It would make sense to put an ARM in a low cost iMac and then let nVidia or AMD handle the graphics. Problem is making the customer aware of this and now you have to assemble the iMac in to different locations (ARM licensing).



Yes and no. The MacBook 12 uses a Celeron M, which would severely underpower the current iMac.



The iMac 5ks could move tomorrow. As said above, the GPU in the iPhone is not ARM, it is a custom build Apple designed with a British group.



As an engineer, I see ARM as great for MacBook 12 and maybe a cheap iMac. But you're asking alot of a technology most people clearly do not understand. ARM is NOT a power architecture. It can crunch, but it is not even in the same ballpark as the i5 and not even in the same solar system as the i7. The A12 and A13 may change this, but ARM is low memory and low power processing. It was not designed to do what a 2.9Ghz i9 CISC with 16GB DDR4 can do. It was designed for a 2.2Ghz RISC, low power with 3-4 GB of low power RAM. ARM is not a RAW data parser. It is designed to do simple actions relentlessly (touch input, radio actualization, display video, etc). MacBook Pro and Mac Pro use cases are just too much for such a small architecture to handle at the current time.

Awesome, thanks so much!

It seems certain from what you’ve said then then that the MacBook (and Mac mini?) are the machines that Apple are going to target for ARM (if they are going to go ARM on the Mac in some sheep or form).

And it looks like our professional users can sleep more easily at night with the commonalities between Pro Mac and iOS more about sharing the investments in software ie Metal rather than hardware.

I absolutely could see Apple wanting to move to ARM in the MacBook so it can easily share similar components to the iPad ie to put Face ID a 4g/5g modem etc. Ditto the low end iMac.

I get what you’re saying about the iMac - I wonder though if Apple does make an ARM Mac if its professional use will be in creating AVR and VR applications? (let’s assume that apple will be creating processors & GPUs completely optimised for those applications on iOS devices).

I could also see Apple wanting to widen the gulf between its professional and consumer Macs both in performance and in price. ARM at the lower end could be a good way to do this.

If I may be greedy and ask you another question(as you know so much about this):

Could it be that ARM’s roadmap in 3-5 years is going to look a lot more impressive and be able to handle more RAM and more general number crunching tasks (more cores?)? I.e. that Apple knows something that we don’t?

Or is it that the ARM architecture is simply not about raw processing power as you say, so it just won’t be able to go in this direction.

Thus will Intel x86 always have the advantage here (as far as the the desktop goes)?

Btw I’ve no skin in the game as to the outcome ie will Apple go ARM or not? I’m just curious!

 

[robbietop]

Awesome, thanks so much!

It seems certain from what you’ve said then then that the MacBook (and Mac mini?) are the machines that Apple are going to target for ARM (if they are going to go ARM on the Mac in some sheep or form).

Anytime, dude. Yeah, I see this. The MacBook could easily benefit from the A-series, but it's gonna need more....damn I hate buzzwords....but ARM is gonna need more teraflops. Teraflops is such an empty word. The Galaxy S9 has more teraflops than the iPhone X, but the iPhone X outperforms it. However, ARM just does not have the floating point of an i5/i7 yet. It is going to need Floating Point (FLOP) to achieve through-put parity.

And it looks like our professional users can sleep more easily at night with the commonalities between Pro Mac and iOS more about sharing the investments in software ie Metal rather than hardware.

I absolutely could see Apple wanting to move to ARM in the MacBook so it can easily share similar components to the iPad ie to put Face ID a 4g/5g modem etc. Ditto the low end iMac.

I get what you’re saying about the iMac - I wonder though if Apple does make an ARM Mac if its professional use will be in creating AVR and VR applications? (let’s assume that apple will be creating processors & GPUs completely optimised for those applications on iOS devices).

I could also see Apple wanting to widen the gulf between its professional and consumer Macs both in performance and in price. ARM at the lower end could be a good way to do this.

It's not about separating them on price or about diverging in power. From a business perspective, I'd want to make sure all of my products are distinct in function. MacBook cannot do MacBook Pro work. MacBook Pro 13 cannot compete with MacBook Pro 15. iMac is inferior to iMac Pro, but superior to Mac mini. I do not want any of my products to bleed into another with function.
Mini is for advanced Home Entertainment or Mac OS Servers. MacBook Air is for old fashioned travelers who need a USB port. MacBook is for travelers who are completely wireless. MacBook Pro 13 is for College Students who need status. MacBook Pro 15 is for getting the job done on the go. iMac is for education or basic work. iMac 4k/5k is for desktop publishing. iMac Pro is for apologizing to customers who have been left behind. Mac Pro should be for "I need to make a AAA Big Budget Hollywood Film and spare no expense.

If I may be greedy and ask you another question(as you know so much about this):

Could it be that ARM’s roadmap in 3-5 years is going to look a lot more impressive and be able to handle more RAM and more general number crunching tasks (more cores?)? I.e. that Apple knows something that we don’t?

Or is it that the ARM architecture is simply not about raw processing power as you say, so it just won’t be able to go in this direction.

Thus will Intel x86 always have the advantage here (as far as the the desktop goes)?

Btw I’ve no skin in the game as to the outcome ie will Apple go ARM or not? I’m just curious!

I don't know a whole lot about ARM, but I understand RISC and the use case for it (worked with IBM PowerPC a lot back in the day). I also knew about PA Semi, the company Apple bought as they built great little processors that can be used in a whole host of great deployments (military especially, but also medical, transportation grid, mobile workstations, etc). PA Semi made these wonderful little chips going back into the 1990s that you could put in a military drone or a heart monitor or those inventory scanners used in BigBox Retail.

3-5 years is an ok assessment for these chips and their power. But you have to also remember their FLOP may not be at parity. Floating Point clock cycles are extremely important for the processing of complex instructions such as those in image signal processing (video, photo), complex interactive chaos (AI, physics simulations, weather, etc.), complex and high quality audio signal processing, spatial awareness processing (AR, VR, etc).

Floating point allows you to control with a more granular hand the sensitivity of your code. Code twenty years ago could make an apple bounce. Code today can make an apple bounce with a certain individual character based on how hard you swipe on screen. This random, chaotic entry by the user can be better calculated and used if it is not an Integer, which is a rigid number with no variation (1 is not 2, etc). By Floating the Point (.) from the Integer to a Rational Number, you can turn a 1/100 scale to the next level. Tiny variations in your flick will reproduce totally different outcomes under a Floating Point scale. Not so much in an Integer Scale, which is just levels of bounciness. What if you want force behind it? Gotta do another scale. Not with Floating point. You can set levels of bounciness in the code based on fractions, the weirder the better.

So, ARM will need to increase its floating point output before it can do AR/VR. But I think Apple has reached a new plateau with iPhone 8/X. Maybe they are almost at parity with the i3? Who knows? But this year we will definitely find out when the new benchmarks come out. Maybe Apple is onto something and AR is their way of showing off just how powerful their A-series now is, as a means of negotiating with Intel.

 

[sakabaro]

> MacBook cannot do MacBook Pro work. MacBook Pro 13 cannot compete with MacBook Pro 15. iMac is inferior to iMac Pro, but superior to Mac mini.

I don't think I agree with that. I was able to develop iOS apps on all these computers, of course, some are way faster than other, but even the MacBook 12" can do serious work.

 

[Painter2002]

Ouch.. And this is Apple's idea of portability ? cables hanging out like ragula(spaghetti).. If I upgrade from the 2012 it will be probably a 2013 or 2014 retina. I like freedom to expand internals.

You won't be getting that anytime soon, unless they make the Mac Pro updatable by the user... having said that, usb-c hubs are the life savers

 

[robbietop]

> MacBook cannot do MacBook Pro work. MacBook Pro 13 cannot compete with MacBook Pro 15. iMac is inferior to iMac Pro, but superior to Mac mini.

I don't think I agree with that. I was able to develop iOS apps on all these computers, of course, some are way faster than other, but even the MacBook 12" can do serious work.

I don't think a MacBook can handle 4K video editing in Premiere without significant inconvenience

 

[Fishrrman]

All the talk about "ARM" is premature.
Come 2020, there is no guarantee that ALL Macs will "go ARM".
They may try it out on one or two models first, just to see how things go.
Just to early to tell.

And I certainly wouldn't base a buying decision for today (or even for next year) on what might happen in 2020 !

 

[Yebubbleman]

I've been struggling a lot lately on what Mac to buy next as I'm nearing that time for myself. I love the 15" MacBook Pro, as a computer model, a lot. I've owned two of them and I've loved them both. However, with the 2016 and 2017 models, and now all the more with the 2018 models, as beautiful as they are physically, I, like many others, have serious problems with them. To the point of wanting to buy an iMac as my next flagship computer instead.

Really, my problem is with the Touch Bar. Actually, aside from it making the running of an OS that's neither macOS or Windows 10 rather difficult, the Touch Bar itself doesn't bother me much. However, the T-series processors and bridgeOS are what really bother me. For the T1-based MacBook Pros, the idea that I NEED to have this hidden EFI partition for it and that I can't blow my whole drive away and rebuild said partition either with a clone or with a macOS install sucks. For the T2-based MacBook Pros and iMac Pro, the idea that an emergency data recovery port is nixed and that my default option (via the Startup Security Utility app) is to only be able to install the current macOS (an option that is one silent firmware update away from becoming the only option) in the name of security is something that both alarms and saddens me.

On my current MacBook Pro, I have upgraded from El Capitan to Sierra, found myself dissatisfied with the bugs that are STILL in that OS and then downgraded back to El Capitan. I did the same with High Sierra only to find that it was EVEN WORSE. I'm tired of having to downgrade back to El Capitan, but I've been grateful that I've had the option to backpedal to an earlier OS.

It was when considering the 2018 MacBook Pros and the implications that they may receive a firmware update that prevents such a backpedalling one day and/or that Apple may and likely will release a Mac one day that contains a co-processor that prohibits such a thing got me thinking:

Ever since Mac OS X Lion, every release to the Mac OS has incorporated features and attributes of iOS devices. The goal with the 2010 MacBook Air was to take the iPad's standby battery life and all-flash design and get a Mac that has those same feature sets. The MacBook Pro with Retina and OS X Mountain Lion furthered that with PowerNap and more of the iOS apps coming to the Mac, then Maps and iBooks with OS X Mavericks, then the flat iOS 7 design with OS X Yosemite. Hell, one can argue that even System Integrity Protection (SIP) is something ultimately inspired by iOS. I guess my point is that even during macOS/OS X release cycles/years where there aren't many huge marquee features, Apple is still aggressively baking in more things from iOS into macOS.

Apple doesn't want the Mac and iOS to merge fully and, for the record, I fully believe them when they say that. I believe that the experience of using a Mac and the experience of using an iOS device will remain as separate as they can while having as much interoperability and maintenance similarities as possible. Toward that end, my gripes with the T2 processor and the Touch Bar MacBook Pros are really that, on the hardware and OS deployment ends, Apple will make the Mac as identical to iOS as is possible. The start up screen having replaced the spinning gear with a progress bar is cosmetic proof of this. But the T2 chips with their secure boot processes, and the looming future of a Mac wherein you can, like iOS, only install the current version of iOS makes sense from the standpoint of Apple wanting to make supporting the Mac similar to supporting iOS. It doesn't change the experience of using a Mac, just that of maintaining and setting up one.

Toward this end, all Apple has to do to really further more change outside of macOS to make macOS installation and maintenance in parity with that of an iOS device is to create their own processors. Certainly, a T3 chip or even a firmware update to the T2 chip could do it. But Apple won't stop with the T2, and for the sake of full control of the machine's end-to-end hardware design (being their obvious end goal), they shouldn't. So, a switch to Apple-designed processors is an inevitability. At this point, the rumor mill doesn't seem certain on those chips being ARM or x86 based.

My prediction, however is that they will be ARM based. Why? ARM now has a much greater performance per wattage than x86. Every iPhone from 7/7 Plus onwards (and presumably every other A10 based device in Apple's portfolio as well) has been more powerful than even the Broadwell MacBook Air still sold today. The performance gap between ARM and x86 is quickly narrowing Also, Intel's increasingly erratic CPU refresh schedule (as has been evidenced by both their failure with Broadwell and the mess that is the rollout of 8th Gen CPUs) is proving to be a thorn in Apple's side.

So, what does this mean for the MacBook Pro? As much as I really hate to say it at this point, it will be even thinner than the current Touch Bar models are now. I don't understand Apple's quest for thin at this point in time. I think that given that the MacBook Pro has had to compromise on performance in the name of thinness is egregious, but nevertheless, it is still something VERY important to them for some reason. And ARM being far more more power and heat efficient will allow for it to happen, especially since the only connectors on the machine currently are USB-C and headphone minijack, both of which can tolerate a design that is that much thinner.

"But what about the keyboard?", you might say. Well, funny story. You know that Touch Bar that Apple has that I mentioned a bunch about earlier? I have a feeling they will expand that to replace the full keyboard, and perhaps the trackpad as well. The whole keyboard will essentially be one solid glass touch screen. The feeling of typing on the keys that already had such horrible travel and such high potential (albeit mitigated a bit on the 2018 MacBook Pro models) for dust to get stuck in the keys will be mitigated by that screen which will have Apple's signature "Taptic" haptics. Plus all of that should quiet the never-ending "Why is Apple refusing to make a touch-screen Mac?" and "When will Apple ever make a touch-screen Mac?" line of questioning save for those that will insist that the main display should still be touch screen. The only thing I'm not sure of in my prediction is where Thunderbolt 3 (or whatever its successor will be by the time this all happens) will be in all of this. Intel maintains Thunderbolt, and I'm unsure of how Apple will get support for it on their systems without Intel providing a controller chip or (best case scenario for Apple) allowing Apple to integrate it into the design of the SoC that will surely be powering the MacBook Pro in lieu of the Core i5/i7/i9. That seems like a relatively minor issue for Apple, though.

Anyway, sorry this was so long. But if you still made it this far, I'd be curious as to your thoughts on this.

 

[buran-energia]

I love thinking about these possible changes and I'm excited for the future.

And I'm not. Switching architecture would mean saying goodbye to bootcamp, most of the games/software written for x86. Virtual machines emulating x86 will also be slow. All current macOS software will need to be recompiled or else it will run slower (with an emulator) or not run at all.

 

[sunapple]

And I'm not. Switching architecture would mean saying goodbye to bootcamp, most of the games/software written for x86. Virtual machines emulating x86 will also be slow. All current macOS software will need to be recompiled or else it will run slower (with an emulator) or not run at all.

We discussed Bootcamp a few posts (and months) earlier, with Windows running on ARM it might be possible to still do dual-booting. Just speculating of course.

The whole switch in architecture must've been a nightmare back when Apple switched to Intel, that headache would come back for sure. It's like when the iPhone got a new screen size and it would take ages for some apps to get optimized, wouldn't want to do without the end result of that process though.

 

[flavr]

Apples last event had one large bit of news that most people didn’t pick up on, ARM chips coming to Macs soon. The new service that will play games in iOS, TVOS and OSX, Apple Arcade is the proof. The service is launching Fall 2019, right in time for newest Macs with ARM chips to be released. In order to play the same games as IOS/TVOS chances are all new MACs will have ARM chips on board. Don’t forget, these will be IOS/TVOS (both currently have ARM chips) games ported and playable locally on MACs. It makes perfect sense to launch it along side the new ARM MACs.

 

[GoldfishRT]

Apples last event had one large bit of news that most people didn’t pick up on, ARM chips coming to Macs soon. The new service that will play games in iOS, TVOS and OSX, Apple Arcade is the proof. The service is launching Fall 2019, right in time for newest Macs with ARM chips to be released. In order to play the same games as IOS/TVOS chances are all new MACs will have ARM chips on board. Don’t forget, these will be IOS/TVOS (both currently have ARM chips) games ported and playable locally on MACs. It makes perfect sense to launch it along side the new ARM MACs.

I'd hardly call that proof. Apple has been working on 'Marzipan' for porting iOS apps to MacOS but this works with Intel CPUs. And plenty of games appear on all sorts of platforms without shared architectures - especially lower end phone style games.

I don't doubt that ARM is in the cards, especially if Intel doesn't get their stuff together but Apple would have to be real smart about ensuring good performance and compatibility in the move. Moving from PowerPC to Intel was certainly painful and I don't think they'd be smart to repeat that.

 

[Painter2002]

I'd hardly call that proof. Apple has been working on 'Marzipan' for porting iOS apps to MacOS but this works with Intel CPUs. And plenty of games appear on all sorts of platforms without shared architectures - especially lower end phone style games.

I don't doubt that ARM is in the cards, especially if Intel doesn't get their stuff together but Apple would have to be real smart about ensuring good performance and compatibility in the move. Moving from PowerPC to Intel was certainly painful and I don't think they'd be smart to repeat that.

I agree with this. ARM chips are coming soon but the releases Apple discussed on this last event are not evidence of it happened in fall.

In fact, if you recall, Apple announce at last years WWDC that they would be opening up their software that they used to introduce News and other iOS apps to Macs to developers in 2019. My guess is TV App, Arcade and other apps will be part of this expansion in 2019 of the porting of iOS apps to MacOS, not the introduction of ARM powered Mac devices.

Even if we do see ARM Macs this year, it likely will NOT be part of the pro lineups, but rather a new MacBook 12” or something of the sorts.

 

[leman]

Apple already distributes iOS apps as LLVM IR... in principle, they can be compiled to whatever platform architecture it needs to be. So no, it’s hardly any proof...