Other Did Apple kill the goose that laid the golden eggs?

[edhchoe]

You never needed a new phone every year since contracts were 2 years. People bought them every year because they were relatively cheap. Now that the price is going up and the technology is not changing much who needs a new phone every year?

When the speed mattered i needed a new phone every year. Iphone 4s was much faster than iphone 4. Iphone 5 was much faster than iPhone 4s. 5s. 6. 6s.
Bigger and faster.
3g network to 4g to LTE.
Now the perceived speed has plateaued.
I am still using iphone se which is the same speed as 6S.

 

[Ruggy]

I've just realised for some of that I'm talking about 'Restrictions' as part of family sharing.
[doublepost=1541750908][/doublepost]

I think it's become very confused and bloated.

It depends how old you are perhaps. I've always been very techie since way back so I don't really have any problems getting things to work but I have a lot of problems identifying the icon I'm looking for since they all went pastel and look pretty much the same to me. It used to save me loads of time when things looked like the thing they did but now.. Whoever thought a coloured daisy represents photos.
Also at the same time they made all the links and icons for functions much smaller so for example in Music if you try to hit for example the letter M you are just as likely to get B or S and have to try three times. Sometimes the back button is only a little arrow about 1/8th inch square. I find it all way more difficult to use than it used to be and I waste loads of time on rubbish like that.
Voice to text still doesn't work very well but at least if you have the time the random element it produces can be hilarious. Google speech to text works better.
And it used to be that my mother-in ln-law could find her way round the iphone easily. It was a huge step up from the Nokias where we used to have 8 nested screens to get to what you wanted. Now the OS is so fat and complicated you have to really look and think where everything is and she can't doit any more . 'General' in settings has become a joke it's got so fat. But at the same time a lot of the functions you want are still really limited.
And there are things that really don't work well. Family sharing is a great idea but when you have to enter a password 5 times on your kid's phone to update the apps, you start to think there must be a better way. Or you download a shared app only to find it wants you to pay again. Or it cancels all your settings when you turn it off to update an app so you spend 5 minutes going through them all again.
And some things have gone backwards. Copy and correcting text for instance is awful. Really awful.
Plus, I'd love contacts to be a lot better. I still have to scroll through a list to get to my wife's contact even though I use it daily. On Android you can drop a link on the home page.
Finally- and I hate to say it- the phone still isn't really a very good phone. Call quality and signal strength have always been a weakness compared to most Android phones and the iphone is just ok .

 

[lordofthereef]

I think carrier deals (lack of) have as much to do with peoples choices as do the higher prices, at least in the US. We've moved from subsidies to BOGo, to BOGO while adding a line (on some phones), to a few hundred bucks off during Black Friday.

Back when we bought our 6s phones we had BOGO rubbing and free upgrades to the next up storage size. Now there's nothing like that. Closest I can get is adding a line, and that's basically a wash at that point.

So today I am paying $150-$450 more (retail) than I did back then AND that doesn't even address the BOGO I can no longer get.

The good need is it's given me the freedom to save even more money. We moved to cricket and we are saving just a hair under $500 a year on our service plan alone. As such, this is legitimately the least we have paid for cell phone coverage almost ever. Phones are lasting easily 3+ years (just had a few batteries done for $29 each) and the overall savings more than makes up for any newer handset purchases. Even so we are probably done with flagships unless they really deliver something incredible. Still have buyers remorse on the X. It's not a bad phone but it's not worth the markup.

 

[Deeds500]

I was going to start a thread about the iphone being doomed but after seeing this thread I will post it here.

The iphone is doomed.

First up, zero growth in 2018. Source:

Second, Samsung's infinity fkex display:

So while Samsung will be bringing a foldable screen to the market in the next few months, Apple will be taking away 3D touch and continuing with its same okd same old in 2019 all the whike increasing the price.

I and a lot of others on this site have been saying for years that Tim Cook will eventually kill the iphone. And for all you fanboys who arrogantly said go and get another phone, you should have been careful what you wished for.

 

[Azathoth123]

If you don’t like any product you should not buy it. That’s not an arrogant comment, that’s a reasonable one.

I don’t dislike Samsung - I have a TV and other Samsung stuff. I don’t dislike Android - it’s just an operating system. I do dislike Google and their business model (advertising) and privacy policies. So when Google and Samsung stop selling my data and Samsung stops loading the phones with cr@pware, give me a call in the old folks home and I may try one.

Disclaimer: Google offers some good features like maps, search, etc. If you don’t mind them building a profile on you and stalking you to try and sell you more of something that you bought last week, by all means carry on.

 

[gnasher729]

People don't need a new phone every year. People can't afford a $1200 phone every year.

People never needed a new phone every year. About 2% bought a new phone after a year. The majority waits 2, 3, 4 years or more, and that has always been the case.

With the XS-Max release, many people waited because they wanted to compare with the XR. And of course Apple has done things to reduce the queues. Many people in the queues have been scalpers, especially in China, and getting rid of them is good for everyone.
[doublepost=1541770655][/doublepost]

Guaranteed if prices weren’t $1000/$1099 for the regular model then there would be lineups.

Shoulda been 699/799/899 for the Xr Xs and Max

Prices are from $449 to $699 for the regular models. $749, $999 and $1099 for the luxury models.
[doublepost=1541770781][/doublepost]

Apple missed the expected iPhone sales numbers. It’s all over the news.

Is it indeed? Where did you read this? Does Apple agree with it?
[doublepost=1541770892][/doublepost]

Yup, exactly! Apple just announced they won’t disclose in the future how many units they've sold anymore. That only can mean one thing and confirmes what you said above.

It means they don't want to give competitors hints what sells and what doesn't sell.
[doublepost=1541771143][/doublepost]

Apple needs to figure out their future. There is no way they can continue to rely on their hardware sales. Software and services are where the money is right now and they should have bought Netflix when they had the chance. I'm no analyst, but based on the fact they are no longer reporting individual units sold along with a few other things, it doesn't take a smart investor to see that Apple needs to do something.

On the other hand, Apple just had the highest revenue / profit numbers for this quarter.
[doublepost=1541771299][/doublepost]

Well, we reached a point that Apple stops selling last year's model in order to not cannibalize sales of the newer models. That is *not* a healthy sign.

What are you going on about? Apple is still selling iPhone 7 and iPhone 8, and at reduced prices at that. What you are saying is total nonsense.
[doublepost=1541771412][/doublepost]

Innovated by buying Face ID and using it to put another spin on face unlock which had been around for ages.

Yes, it's been around for ages. Came in two variaties: (1) Didn't recognise anyone who is black. Didn't even realise they were there. (2) Recognises practically anyone.

 

[ftaok]

Well if the S10 has an in display finger print sensor I would imagine it will sell a lot more than 6 million units for the year.

I suppose that if the S10 gets the in-screen touch sensor, then the component manufacturers would have gotten their process yields up high enough for the anticipated sales volumes for the S10.

But the point was why Apple didn't put this tech into the X and the Xs. It's quite likely that the technology wasn't ready in July 2018 (and certainly not in July 2017 for the X) to provide 50million per quarter.

If the tech is ready for the S10 release (in March 2019?), then the answer will be that they've increased the production rates enough to satisfy S10 volumes, which by the way is not as high as iPhone volumes. How many S10 will Samsung sell in a year? 25 million? 30 million? iPhone flagships will sell close to 2x that in the Holiday quarter.

Apple moved on over a year ago. The components for FaceID were ready whereas the components for in-screen TouchID were not. Apple will not go back to any form of TouchID. They will spend all of their resources towards making FaceID work better and faster.

 

[Azathoth123]

$1,200 every year? What are the price complainers doing with their old iPhones other than selling/trading them and paying the difference? Binning them? Stuffing them under the door to stop drafts? iPhones hold value extremely well - that’s a HUGE advantage that’s NEVER mentioned.

Competitor’s phones are heavily discounted right after launch - their proponents brag about it. But how can you sell a year old whatever for 50% when you can buy a new one for 50% off? Cheap is a double-edge sword, it cuts both ways.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

What are you going on about? Apple is still selling iPhone 7 and iPhone 8, and at reduced prices at that. What you are saying is total nonsense.

They were referring to the iPhone X I think. If Apple had continued to sell it this year then it would have certainly taken sales off the XS due to the fact they look alike and are very close in terms of performance and experience. The iPhone 8 and 8+ is a great phone and people like myself enjoyed the drop in price for this years upgrade as I just couldn’t see the advantage of paying £400 more for just another iPhone.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

$1,200 every year? What are the price complainers doing with their old iPhones other than selling/trading them and paying the difference? Binning them? Stuffing them under the door to stop drafts? iPhones hold value extremely well - that’s a HUGE advantage that’s NEVER mentioned.

Competitor’s phones are heavily discounted right after launch - their proponents brag about it. But how can you sell a year old whatever for 50% when you can buy a new one for 50% off? Cheap is a double-edge sword, it cuts both ways.

I tend to give mine to one of my parents once it’s paid off. I used to sell it to get money towards my next upgrade but it doesn’t seem as worth it now as so many iPhones are flooding the secondhand market.

 

[Shanghaichica]

I suppose that if the S10 gets the in-screen touch sensor, then the component manufacturers would have gotten their process yields up high enough for the anticipated sales volumes for the S10.

But the point was why Apple didn't put this tech into the X and the Xs. It's quite likely that the technology wasn't ready in July 2018 (and certainly not in July 2017 for the X) to provide 50million per quarter.

If the tech is ready for the S10 release (in March 2019?), then the answer will be that they've increased the production rates enough to satisfy S10 volumes, which by the way is not as high as iPhone volumes. How many S10 will Samsung sell in a year? 25 million? 30 million? iPhone flagships will sell close to 2x that in the Holiday quarter.

Apple moved on over a year ago. The components for FaceID were ready whereas the components for in-screen TouchID were not. Apple will not go back to any form of TouchID. They will spend all of their resources towards making FaceID work better and faster.

About 40-50 million of the S series per year. That’s in a bad year. Whilst I don’t doubt that a flagship iPhone sells more than the equivalent flagship S series, we don’t really know how many of the newer models Apple are selling as they never release individual sales figures. There’s a lot of evidence that suggests that older iPhones still sell quite well. If Apple are selling about 200 million iPhones a year, how many of those are the current flagship iPhone?

 

[ftaok]

About 40-50 million of the S series per year. That’s in a bad year. Whilst I don’t doubt that a flagship iPhone sells more than the equivalent flagship S series, we don’t really know how many of the newer models Apple are selling as they never release individual sales figures. There’s a lot of evidence that suggests that older iPhones still sell quite well. If Apple are selling about 200 million iPhones a year, how many of those are the current flagship iPhone?

With all due respect, your numbers are wrong (or at least as far as what can be verified by analyst reports).

The S7 was the best selling Galaxy device, ever. It sold 51 million in it's first year.

The S9 is estimated to hit about 31 million this year.

As far as Apple goes, yes, they don't breakdown the sales by model, but they had been giving unit sales and revenue, so you can easily get the average selling price of each iPhone.

Last quarter, the ASP was $793. Seeing it that high would indicate that sales of the low-end iPhones wasn't very close to the X (and the Xs/Max). The general consensus is that the current year iPhones generally outsell the older ones about 3 to 1 (or so). It's true that last year, only the X would have needed the in-screen TouchID and with about 78 million iPhones sold in the Q4-2017 (FQ1-2018); so assuming 35% of those phones were X, they would have needed 27 million in-screen TouchID components.

For this year, let's say they sell the same 78 million phones. They'll need close to 60 million of these parts just for the holiday quarter (assuming 75% are Xs/Max/Xr). That's 2x what the S9 will sell in all of 2018 (9 months of sales).

Even though Samsung is huge and makes the most smartphones, Apple has to work at an entirely different scale than everyone else due to the fact that Apple only really operates at the high-end of the market.

If Samsung puts the in-screen TouchID into a phone, expect it to be only on a variant of the S10. It'll probably cost $100/150 more than a standard S10. They'll likely be popular, but unit sales will be limited by parts constraints.

 

[Shanghaichica]

With all due respect, your numbers are wrong (or at least as far as what can be verified by analyst reports).

The S7 was the best selling Galaxy device, ever. It sold 51 million in it's first year.

The S9 is estimated to hit about 31 million this year.

As far as Apple goes, yes, they don't breakdown the sales by model, but they had been giving unit sales and revenue, so you can easily get the average selling price of each iPhone.

Last quarter, the ASP was $793. Seeing it that high would indicate that sales of the low-end iPhones wasn't very close to the X (and the Xs/Max). The general consensus is that the current year iPhones generally outsell the older ones about 3 to 1 (or so). It's true that last year, only the X would have needed the in-screen TouchID and with about 78 million iPhones sold in the Q4-2017 (FQ1-2018); so assuming 35% of those phones were X, they would have needed 27 million in-screen TouchID components.

For this year, let's say they sell the same 78 million phones. They'll need close to 60 million of these parts just for the holiday quarter (assuming 75% are Xs/Max/Xr). That's 2x what the S9 will sell in all of 2018 (9 months of sales).

Even though Samsung is huge and makes the most smartphones, Apple has to work at an entirely different scale than everyone else due to the fact that Apple only really operates at the high-end of the market.

If Samsung puts the in-screen TouchID into a phone, expect it to be only on a variant of the S10. It'll probably cost $100/150 more than a standard S10. They'll likely be popular, but unit sales will be limited by parts constraints.

Actually the S4 is the best selling Samsung S series ever and it’s estimated to have sold around 80 million units.

Also the 40-50 million was what was initially estimated for the S9 plus/S9. These may have been revised down since.

 

[ftaok]

Actually the S4 is the best selling Samsung S series ever and it’s estimated to have sold around 80 million units.

So, I've seen some conflicting reports. The S7/Edge sold 51 to 55 million in its first year. The S4 sold 80 million over it's lifetime, but it wasn't more than 55 million in the first year. I think the S5 wasn't that big of a seller and the S4 sold strongly into it's second year. That's how they get to 80 million.

Anyways, I was responding to your assertion that 40-50 million in a year is a bad year for Galaxy phones. It's not. It's record breaking territory for the Galaxy line.

This conversation is about components and how many parts are needed to satisfy the 1st quarter of sales for an Apple flagship device. The bottom line is that in-screen touchID parts can't be included in an iPhone until they can be built at a rate of 50-60 million per quarter, unless Apple do a sort of limited edition phone, sort of like the X, but even with the X, they likely needed 30 million faceID cameras for that 1st quarter.

This all gets back to whether the S10 gets an in-screen touch sensor. I say that it doesn't. If it does, it'll mean that either ...

a. they were able to build the components at a rate to satisfy S10 demands ... let's say 50 million in 2019.

OR

b. Samsung offers a variant of the S10 (sort of like when they intro'd the Edge variant) that would be expected to sell at a much slower rate.

In any event, I'm not convinced that Samsung will ever put in-screen touchID into any phone.

EDIT - changed "Either way" to "In any event" as it better fit what my meaning.

 

[Shanghaichica]

So, I've seen some conflicting reports. The S7/Edge sold 51 to 55 million in its first year. The S4 sold 80 million over it's lifetime, but it wasn't more than 55 million in the first year. I think the S5 wasn't that big of a seller and the S4 sold strongly into it's second year. That's how they get to 80 million.

Anyways, I was responding to your assertion that 40-50 million in a year is a bad year for Galaxy phones. It's not. It's record breaking territory for the Galaxy line.

This conversation is about components and how many parts are needed to satisfy the 1st quarter of sales for an Apple flagship device. The bottom line is that in-screen touchID parts can't be included in an iPhone until they can be built at a rate of 50-60 million per quarter, unless Apple do a sort of limited edition phone, sort of like the X, but even with the X, they likely needed 30 million faceID cameras for that 1st quarter.

This all gets back to whether the S10 gets an in-screen touch sensor. I say that it doesn't. If it does, it'll mean that either ...

a. they were able to build the components at a rate to satisfy S10 demands ... let's say 50 million in 2019.

OR

b. Samsung offers a variant of the S10 (sort of like when they intro'd the Edge variant) that would be expected to sell at a much slower rate.

Either way, I'm not convinced that Samsung will ever put in-screen touchID into any phone.

If the S10 doesn’t have an in screen FPS at this point Samsung need to sit down. One plus and huwawei already have one so Samsung have to find a away to make it happen, which is what all the rumours are pointing towards. Two of their main android competitors already have it and Samsung have no excuses not to have it in the S10.

Yes I said 40-50 million because that’s what was initially predicted for the S9 even when sales were not looking good for the S9 in the first few months.

This is the best I could find but it’s around 40 million. These were the initial estimates

“Market analysts expect Samsung to sell between 40 million and 43 million Galaxy S9 units this year. Samsung sold 41 million Galaxy S8 units, and 48 Galaxy S7 units, the report adds”


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/bgr.com/2018/03/12/galaxy-s9-vs-galaxy-s8-first-day-sales/amp/

So based on these figures 40-50 seems to be what they’ve done for the past few years, although they might do less this year.

 

[jagolden]

People used to upgrade more because phones whereat as good as they have been the last few years.
going from a 3g to a 4 was a huge upgrade. same with the 4-5. 5-6+ wasnt that big because the 6+ wasnt really faster then the 5's it was the last dog apple released.
From the 6s and up phones dont feel like huge upgrades anymore and the price these are going to makes us think more then the old subsidy plans.
400$ down felt better then payment plans of 50$ a month and upgrading yearly turned into 500$+. Upgrading before you could get a new iPhone for less then 150 usually year after year. Every two years you could make enough money on your subsidy paid off phone to cover the cost of a new phone.
Selling last years X is the biggest drop I have seen in a iphone at over 400$ loss.
The last 3 years phones are fast enough that upgrading and feeling that speed increase and new features is so small people are losing interest besides tech enthusiast.
I think its a good time for consumers actually even with the super high prices. slow sales will push manufacturers to put out some real new technologies and actually innovating again. Im sure big companies have some tricks up their sleeves in their pipeline that they are waiting to release when sales start slowing.

I agree with your overall post but heartily disagree over the upgrades. 3GS to a 4 was a nice upgrade. 4 to 5 was just "meh". The 6S Plus still remains a great phone, definitely no dog there. Good looking, great screen and more than capable camera, not to mention it’s sturdiness. Was sad to see mine go but got good money for it.

I’m hoping to hold out to 2021 for my next phone. Hope the manufacturers do have some special things up thier sleeves. Also hope I’ll still be able to afford one, better start saving now .

 

[mib1800]

If the S10 doesn’t have an in screen FPS at this point Samsung need to sit down. One plus and huwawei already have one so Samsung have to find a away to make it happen, which is what all the rumours are pointing towards. Two of their main android competitors already have it and Samsung have no excuses not to have it in the S10.

Yes I said 40-50 million because that’s what was initially predicted for the S9 even when sales were not looking good for the S9 in the first few months.

This is the best I could find but it’s around 40 million. These were the initial estimates

“Market analysts expect Samsung to sell between 40 million and 43 million Galaxy S9 units this year. Samsung sold 41 million Galaxy S8 units, and 48 Galaxy S7 units, the report adds”


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/bgr.com/2018/03/12/galaxy-s9-vs-galaxy-s8-first-day-sales/amp/

So based on these figures 40-50 seems to be what they’ve done for the past few years, although they might do less this year.

You have to account for the 15 million Note9/8 sold for the year. Plus all the old flagships like s8/s8+.

In effect you are looking at maybe 50-60 millions premium galaxy sold per year.

Apple sold like 200mil phones a year. How many of those are top of the line x/xs/xs max/8/8+? 50%? 60%? 70%?

No matter which percentage you choose, the conclusion is there are far more galaxy phones out there than what most apple fanboys in here think.

 

[ftaok]

You have to account for the 15 million Note9/8 sold for the year. Plus all the old flagships like s8/s8+.

In effect you are looking at maybe 50-60 millions premium galaxy sold per year.

Apple sold like 200mil phones a year. How many of those are top of the line x/xs/xs max/8/8+? 50%? 60%? 70%?

No matter which percentage you choose, the conclusion is there are far more galaxy phones out there than what most apple fanboys in here think.

No one is saying that Samsung doesn't sell a ton of flagships. This specific discussion was in regards to Samsung and/or Apple putting the in-screen FPS onto their phones. The point being is that both Apple and Samsung sell too many flagship phones to be able to put cutting edge tech into them. The component makers just can't make enough of those parts yet.

So what could happen is that they make a variant flagship (like the Edge when they first came out) that sells at a premium, but lower volumes.

But back to your point about fanboys. Apple sells 200 million iPhones a year. Looking at ASP, you could roughly estimate that about 65-75% of them are the new ones, so that would include the 8/8+ for last years data.

On the Samsung side, less than half of their sales are the latest Galaxy/Note. But they sell the most units, so they end up selling a ton of flagships. No one disputes that.

 

[Ebok]

Prices are from $449 to $699 for the regular models. $749, $999 and $1099 for the luxury models.

there's no such thing as a luxury smartphone, don't be naive.

(the "high end" model used to be $699 btw)

 

[raylo32]

The thing is phones have become a boring tool to a large extent, especially iPhones that just work without a lot of glitches and drama.

 

[s15119]

Nonsense. They are still clearly iPhones and they are selling quite well. There are simply lot's of models to choose from.

 

[mib1800]

For someone who bought the xs max, will you feel extremely proud or angry when you see prices like this?
Exchange $1 = rm3.8

Have you bought a gold "plated" egg?

 

[DJ_Smith]

iPhone sales would eventually slow down in few years due to maturity and price hikes.

 

[pixel_junkie]

It means they don't want to give competitors hints what sells and what doesn't sell.

Aaaah, right! They've been in business how long? But they just came up with that for the first time? Makes a lot of sense

 

[bushman4]

with all the patents Apple has obtained its hard to believe that the majority of them have never materialized in the iPhone
The cellphone market is saturated... no secret
And people will not update without new hardware as well as bells and whistles
Hard to believe Apple is relying on price increases to salvage them
2019 will tell the story