In 3 years, 50% of all computers capable of playing AAA games will be Macs

[GrumpyCoder]

With previous Intel Macs, a major reason cited for why few AAA games were ported to the Mac was not just the market share of the Macs overall but that the most common models sold had weak Intel HD graphics.

Who made that claim? I mean, sure, there are games you couldn't play with "reasonable" (whatever that means) performance on a Mac or with a weak GPU, but that's still true with M1 Max and 3060 where you need more power. Let me ask differently, what game studio actually gave an official reason not to port a game due to lack of performance?

I'm not talking about Macrumors forum members, Reddit or whatever, I mean a real reason from studios actually creating games.

 

[crazy dave]

Who made that claim? I mean, sure, there are games you couldn't play with "reasonable" (whatever that means) performance on a Mac or with a weak GPU, but that's still true with M1 Max and 3060 where you need more power. Let me ask differently, what game studio actually gave an official reason not to port a game due to lack of performance?

I'm not talking about Macrumors forum members, Reddit or whatever, I mean a real reason from studios actually creating games.

I’ve read this as stated reasons several times: I believe the Star Citizen devs said so, a couple of others as well but I’ll admit I can’t remember who, and a number of analysts. I’ll also admit that it would take awhile to hunt down links for all this as this was years ago. The most recent one I remember was a YouTube tech reviewer which I don’t know if that counts. ?

I mean it makes sense. Even just focusing on the US market, Macs are only about 15% give or take. If your minimum recommended hardware is X and the commonly sold Macs, even recent ones, all have less powerful hardware than X then you’ve just decreased the potential pool of interested buyers even further. Now pretty much every Mac sold will likely be above X.

Now there are still a lot of headwinds and reasons for devs not to port. Like a big one is that gamers who own Macs tend to own other hardware that they actually game on. That was the stated reason why Rocket League dropped Mac and Linux support. It could run on a potato, but people were choosing to play it on other platforms. So I don’t believe that this expansion of hardware capabilities by itself will open the floodgates of AAA gaming on the Mac. But it is one fewer reason not to develop for the Mac. And that’s good even if not sufficient.

 

[senttoschool]

Who made that claim? I mean, sure, there are games you couldn't play with "reasonable" (whatever that means) performance on a Mac or with a weak GPU, but that's still true with M1 Max and 3060 where you need more power. Let me ask differently, what game studio actually gave an official reason not to port a game due to lack of performance?

Read the first post again. Macs are estimated to be only ~2% of total computers capable of playing AAA games.

Put yourself in the shoes of a AAA developer. It makes zero sense to port your AAA game to the Mac for that little marketshare. Instead, you should try to focus your efforts on making the game better for consoles and gaming PCs.

 

[diamond.g]

Read the first post again. Macs are estimated to be only ~2% of total computers capable of playing AAA games.

Put yourself in the shoes of a AAA developer. It makes zero sense to port your AAA game to the Mac for that little marketshare. Instead, you should try to focus your efforts on making the game better for consoles and gaming PCs.

@GrumpyCoder the premise of this thread is at 50% of the computers that can play AAA games (at least at 1080p30 high I guess) developers/publishers will make macOS a first class citizen (again?) for AAA games. So in ~2025 we should expect games like GTA 6 or the next Witcher to be on macOS as a native release.

 

[senttoschool]

@GrumpyCoder the premise of this thread is at 50% of the computers that can play AAA games (at least at 1080p30 high I guess) developers/publishers will make macOS a first class citizen (again?) for AAA games. So in ~2025 we should expect games like GTA 6 or the next Witcher to be on macOS as a native release.

Yes, that's what the original post is implying, that in a few years, developers will make native Mac games. I'm the original author.

 

[diamond.g]

Yes, that's what the original post is implying, that in a few years, developers will make native Mac games. I'm the original author.

Do you think the Steam hardware survey percentage will go from 2% to 50%?

 

[maflynn]

I found Dave2D's explanation of why Apple doesn't do gaming and I tend to agree with his points

 

[JMacHack]

Do you think the Steam hardware survey percentage will go from 2% to 50%?

I’d be flabbergasted if it went from 2 to 3 percent.

 

[diamond.g]

I’d be flabbergasted if it went from 2 to 3 percent.

Careful it is at 2.7% currently.

 

[GrumpyCoder]

I’ve read this as stated reasons several times: I believe the Star Citizen devs said so, a couple of others as well but I’ll admit I can’t remember who, and a number of analysts. I’ll also admit that it would take awhile to hunt down links for all this as this was years ago.

Well, I would believe the Star Citizen guys, they have a history of developing games that run "smooth" for hardware that doesn't even exist yet (Wing/Strike Commander).
Otherwise, I'd say no. I've never heard that complain from anyone I ever talked to in game studios. Journalists, reviewers, YouTubers, etc. sure... but they don't create games.

Read the first post again. Macs are estimated to be only ~2% of total computers capable of playing AAA games.

I'm a little lost. Are you a game studio or is this based on your opinion as a gamer?
I asked because I thought some game studio complained about performance in Macs and that was (one of) their reasons not to port.

I assume you mean we have ~2-3% of people playing games on Macs. And somehow we're jumping to the conclusion that's because only ~2-3% of Macs sold are capable of playing games, which is wrong. You can play games on Macs with iGPU... actually have been able to for many years (+ low end GPU systems like Intel iMacs). Sure, not every title, not at max settings, but it works. Looking at ~2-3% of Mac gamers, you have about 3x that on PC, people playing with Intel iGPUs, not counting AMD counterparts or old/cheap GPUs like 600/700 series Nvidia, MX150, etc. or AMD equivalent, those come on top to the 3x iGPU gamers.

Most Macs are simply used for "work", as are most company PCs. The users have no intension to play games.

Put yourself in the shoes of a AAA developer. It makes zero sense to port your AAA game to the Mac for that little marketshare. Instead, you should try to focus your efforts on making the game better for consoles and gaming PCs.

I don't really have to put myself in the shoes. I agree it makes no sense, not even because of the market share, but because of the effort you have to put in a macOS port. I have abandoned all my Unity and Unreal based projects for macOS this year due to the amount of work it requires to port to macOS. Most still work on Linux with way less effort, but the graphically intensive stuff is Windows only, because it's just not worth investing the time it requires to port. 2021 is the year I gave up on macOS and Linux ports for everything... a sad year.

For the gaming industry I have my doubts it will be different. For smaller indie games, sure. But for really polished AAA titles? Those are usually DX12 now and might offer backward compatibility with DX11 (those still run via parallels/crossover). DX11 support will become less and less common and most DX12 titles are developed with resource binding tier 3 in mind, which is more than Metal/macOS (as well as MoltenVK) can handle (on purpose). So porting games will become more difficult from DX12 to Metal than DX11 to Metal.

 

[senttoschool]

I'm a little lost. Are you a game studio or is this based on your opinion as a gamer?
I asked because I thought some game studio complained about performance in Macs and that was (one of) their reasons not to port.

I assume you mean we have ~2-3% of people playing games on Macs. And somehow we're jumping to the conclusion that's because only ~2-3% of Macs sold are capable of playing games, which is wrong. You can play games on Macs with iGPU... actually have been able to for many years (+ low end GPU systems like Intel iMacs). Sure, not every title, not at max settings, but it works. Looking at ~2-3% of Mac gamers, you have about 3x that on PC, people playing with Intel iGPUs, not counting AMD counterparts or old/cheap GPUs like 600/700 series Nvidia, MX150, etc. or AMD equivalent, those come on top to the 3x iGPU gamers.

Most Macs are simply used for "work", as are most company PCs. The users have no intension to play games.

Should read the original post again. The 2% number will make more sense.

 

[MayaUser]

Well, I would believe the Star Citizen guys, they have a history of developing games that run "smooth" for hardware that doesn't even exist yet (Wing/Strike Commander).
Otherwise, I'd say no. I've never heard that complain from anyone I ever talked to in game studios. Journalists, reviewers, YouTubers, etc. sure... but they don't create games.

I'm a little lost. Are you a game studio or is this based on your opinion as a gamer?
I asked because I thought some game studio complained about performance in Macs and that was (one of) their reasons not to port.

I assume you mean we have ~2-3% of people playing games on Macs. And somehow we're jumping to the conclusion that's because only ~2-3% of Macs sold are capable of playing games, which is wrong. You can play games on Macs with iGPU... actually have been able to for many years (+ low end GPU systems like Intel iMacs). Sure, not every title, not at max settings, but it works. Looking at ~2-3% of Mac gamers, you have about 3x that on PC, people playing with Intel iGPUs, not counting AMD counterparts or old/cheap GPUs like 600/700 series Nvidia, MX150, etc. or AMD equivalent, those come on top to the 3x iGPU gamers.

Most Macs are simply used for "work", as are most company PCs. The users have no intension to play games.

I don't really have to put myself in the shoes. I agree it makes no sense, not even because of the market share, but because of the effort you have to put in a macOS port. I have abandoned all my Unity and Unreal based projects for macOS this year due to the amount of work it requires to port to macOS. Most still work on Linux with way less effort, but the graphically intensive stuff is Windows only, because it's just not worth investing the time it requires to port. 2021 is the year I gave up on macOS and Linux ports for everything... a sad year.

For the gaming industry I have my doubts it will be different. For smaller indie games, sure. But for really polished AAA titles? Those are usually DX12 now and might offer backward compatibility with DX11 (those still run via parallels/crossover). DX11 support will become less and less common and most DX12 titles are developed with resource binding tier 3 in mind, which is more than Metal/macOS (as well as MoltenVK) can handle (on purpose). So porting games will become more difficult from DX12 to Metal than DX11 to Metal.

you are totally right

 

[diamond.g]

Should read the original post again. The 2% number will make more sense.

Ah so I was correct in thinking that the current 2.7% shown in the Steam Hardware Survey is expected to rise to 50%. Because as you said developers look at that output and see that only 2.7% of the folks that play games do so on a Mac.

I also noticed that according to the Steam Survey only 6% of Mac gamers do so on a Apple Silicon Mac, even though 30% of said gamers are on a Macbook Air.

 

[senttoschool]

Ah so I was correct in thinking that the current 2.7% shown in the Steam Hardware Survey is expected to rise to 50%. Because as you said developers look at that output and see that only 2.7% of the folks that play games do so on a Mac.

I also noticed that according to the Steam Survey only 6% of Mac gamers do so on a Apple Silicon Mac, even though 30% of said gamers are on a Macbook Air.

Read the original post or just read the TLDR.

 

[LIVEFRMNYC]

I think there will be an increase of AAA games native to MacOS in the coming years, but nowhere near what you're claiming. Especially since console is still king, and streaming games is becoming more prevalent. But it's really anybody's guess at this point.

 

[jinnyman]

After some thoughts, I predict that lack of strategy by Apple will hamper introduction of AAA to mac ecosystem for foreseeable future.

 

[EntropyQ3]

After some thoughts, I predict that lack of strategy by Apple will hamper introduction of AAA to mac ecosystem for foreseeable future.

Does that really matter though?
There will be games to play on Macs, and there are a number of platforms that have games libraries in the several thousands that cost from nothing (your phone) to a few hundred (Switch and other consoles). It’s not as if Mac users can’t easily spend their remaining life playing games if they so choose. It’s just that they may not be able to play a specific title on their Mac. Which is really no obstacle at all.

Allowing the Mac gaming market to grow organically, (i.e. let the installed base and demographic determine what projects make sense on the platform) is a quite reasonable approach.

 

[diamond.g]

Does that really matter though?
There will be games to play on Macs, and there are a number of platforms that have games libraries in the several thousands that cost from nothing (your phone) to a few hundred (Switch and other consoles). It’s not as if Mac users can’t easily spend their remaining life playing games if they so choose. It’s just that they may not be able to play a specific title on their Mac. Which is really no obstacle at all.

Allowing the Mac gaming market to grow organically, (i.e. let the installed base and demographic determine what projects make sense on the platform) is a quite reasonable approach.

Is it a reasonable approach or their only approach?

 

[EntropyQ3]

Is it a reasonable approach or their only approach?

It’s the one they’ve chosen, and I’d say it’s reasonable. As we have discussed, they could have money-hatted a number of high profile AAA ports in an effort to demonstrate the capabilities of their new Apple silicon.
That would have had benefits, but if the sales failed to impress, (and how could it not given that the installed base is still small), you would have reinforced that such projects are a bad idea under MacOS, and skewed the competitive landscape for the projects that may make more sense early on.

It really isn’t an easy question, but making reasonable tools available, and selling at a good pace at least makes it possible for a healthy native market to eventually grow. You might say that it prepares the earth, and whatever suits the soil will grow. Or you could call it a reliance on the market economy.

I do concede that it could have been a decent idea to buy a few high profile ports just to show off the capabilities of the platform, but I actually don’t believe it would have made much, or even any, difference to the overall games market we will see in five years time under MacOS. And it would have created a strange competitive situation if Apple gave money to the publishers who wouldn’t support the platform otherwise, while offering no such benefits to the ones who support it spontaneously.

 

[EntropyQ3]

Double post. Curse the phone interface. ?

 

[mi7chy]

What's the progress report on this prediction? Has it even hit a third of the prediction, 16.7%, after one year out of three?

 

[jeanlain]

It’s the one they’ve chosen, and I’d say it’s reasonable. As we have discussed, they could have money-hatted a number of high profile AAA ports in an effort to demonstrate the capabilities of their new Apple silicon.
That would have had benefits, but if the sales failed to impress, (and how could it not given that the installed base is still small), you would have reinforced that such projects are a bad idea under MacOS, and skewed the competitive landscape for the projects that may make more sense early on.

It really isn’t an easy question, but making reasonable tools available, and selling at a good pace at least makes it possible for a healthy native market to eventually grow. You might say that it prepares the earth, and whatever suits the soil will grow. Or you could call it a reliance on the market economy.

I do concede that it could have been a decent idea to buy a few high profile ports just to show off the capabilities of the platform, but I actually don’t believe it would have made much, or even any, difference to the overall games market we will see in five years time under MacOS. And it would have created a strange competitive situation if Apple gave money to the publishers who wouldn’t support the platform otherwise, while offering no such benefits to the ones who support it spontaneously.

Apple is basically doing that with Apple Arcade, pumping a large amount of money into game development.
They could have made a higher tier of Apple Arcade games (call it "Arcade+") with high-profile ports.
The problem is that these games wouldn't be able to run on Phones...

 

[bosozoku]

Sinserely hope it will be so, cause I have invested a lot in new mbp, and would be happy to play AAA titles even in mid settings at 1080p

 

[bosozoku]

I paid $325Cdn last year for a new Lenovo Ideapad with a ryzen 2500 and vega 8 with a 15 inch 1080p native display 16gig of ram an 512gig SSD. The Air cost nearly 4x that... As I said the Apple tax is real.

What are you doing here then?

 

[bosozoku]

Apple is basically doing that with Apple Arcade, pumping a large amount of money into game development.
They could have made a higher tier of Apple Arcade games (call it "Arcade+") with high-profile ports.
The problem is that these games wouldn't be able to run on Phones...

Now Apple is selling new M1/M1pro/max machines like pancakes, so in a year or two they will have a pretty good install base, and while there is a big shortage in PlayStation 5 supply, it’s a good chance to cut a nice piece of AAA gaming market “cake”