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My guess:

- 18.3.1 today
- 18.4 tomorrow
- new iPhone Thursday
I don’t think there’s any reason for an 18.3.1 update today unless there’s some really critical security fix that needs to be made. My guess is we get 18.4 beta 1 and a hardware announcement this week, and 18.3.1 next week when the new hardware becomes available. Usually they don’t release the update that adds support for the new hardware until the new hardware is available, and since 18.3.1 will likely be the update to add that hardware support, chances are it will ship next week or so when the hardware is actually available.
 
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I don’t think there’s any reason for an 18.3.1 update today unless there’s some really critical security fix that needs to be made. My guess is we get 18.4 beta 1 and a hardware announcement this week, and 18.3.1 next week when the new hardware becomes available. Usually they don’t release the update that adds support for the new hardware until the new hardware is available, and since 18.3.1 will likely be the update to add that hardware support, chances are it will ship next week or so when the hardware is actually available.
I don’t get the „there’s no reason for 18.3.1“ argument.

By your logic, there’s never a reason to release these kind of small updates. It will be released when it’s done, they don’t need a reason to release it.

You could also argue that already finished the update and ship the new iPhone with 18.3.1. So it’d make sense for them to release it today.
 
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I don’t think there’s any reason for an 18.3.1 update today unless there’s some really critical security fix that needs to be made. My guess is we get 18.4 beta 1 and a hardware announcement this week, and 18.3.1 next week when the new hardware becomes available. Usually they don’t release the update that adds support for the new hardware until the new hardware is available, and since 18.3.1 will likely be the update to add that hardware support, chances are it will ship next week or so when the hardware is actually available.
We have no idea if 18.3 fully supports the new Powerbeats which by all accounts are released tomorrow.
 
I don’t get the „there’s no reason for 18.3.1“ argument.

By your logic, there’s never a reason to release these kind of small updates. It will be released when it’s done, they don’t need a reason to release it.

You could also argue that already finished the update and ship the new iPhone with 18.3.1. So it’d make sense for them to release it today.
It’s not that an 18.3.1 version will never be needed, it’s just it likely isn’t needed now. Of course there are good reasons to release minor x.x.1 updates, what I disagree here on is the timing of the release. Apple tends to release a new update when new hardware becomes available to add support for said new hardware, they rarely if ever release an update that adds support for new hardware before said hardware is available, and certainly isn’t very likely to release an update adding support for new hardware before the new hardware has even been announced yet. Unless there’s a major security threat that needs fixed ASAP, Apple isn’t likely to give us an update with code for new hardware that people can use to determine the new hardware’s specs and such before Apple’s been able to announce it. It’s just pretty unlikely.
 
We have no idea if 18.3 fully supports the new Powerbeats which by all accounts are released tomorrow.
And if Powerbeats are announced tomorrow, they’ll likely be announced alongside the other rumored new hardware coming. Apple isn’t likely to release a software update with code revealing the specs of all their new hardware before they’ve announced it, and Apple usually releases an update with added support for the new hardware about a week after the hardware is announced when it is publicly available. 18.3.1 will likely be the update that adds support for these new devices because 18.4 is still months out from public release, so 18.3.1 likely isn’t coming until at the earliest after Apple’s announced their new hardware.
 
I don’t get the „there’s no reason for 18.3.1“ argument.

By your logic, there’s never a reason to release these kind of small updates. It will be released when it’s done, they don’t need a reason to release it.

You could also argue that already finished the update and ship the new iPhone with 18.3.1. So it’d make sense for them to release it today.
I think the new iPhone will ship with 18.3, with a day one update to 18.3.1.
It’s pretty normal for Apple devices to have a day one update these days.
 
It should already, it’s no different than AirPods Pro 2. Neither does the SE need anything. Only Apple’s 5G chip is new.
That is not how software updates work, Apple needs to add compatibility for new products even if nothing has changed.
For example, the second generation AirPods Max have the exact same hardware as the first generation except for the port. Yet no matter what you do, they will absolutely not pair properly to an iOS 17 device.
Same goes for the AirPods 4.
 
It should already, it’s no different than AirPods Pro 2. Neither does the SE need anything. Only Apple’s 5G chip is new.
There are usually model numbers and such for devices referenced in iOS updates, and you can determine a number of things about the new hardware based on these things. That’s why Apple rarely if ever drops updates including support for the new hardware before they’ve announced the new hardware. So I think it’s likely that if Apple follows their normal pattern, we aren’t going to see 18.3.1 until after the new hardware has been announced, and likely not until the hardware is actually publicly available in about a week or so. There doesn’t seem to be any rush for an 18.3.1 update, 18.3 doesn’t seem to have any major security threats needing patched or major widespread bugs that need addressed. Apple doesn’t usually rush out an x.x.1 only about a week and a half after the public release. So Apple can probably take their time, and it looks pretty likely they will use 18.3.1 to add support for the new hardware, so the timeline looks pretty strongly against a release real soon for 18.3.1.
 
There doesn’t seem to be any rush for an 18.3.1 update, 18.3 doesn’t seem to have any major security threats needing patched or major widespread bugs that need addressed.
Quick question, do you work for Apple?
Cause that would be the only way you would know if there are major bugs or security fixes that need to be patched.
 
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Quick question, do you work for Apple?
Cause that would be the only way you would know if there are major bugs or security fixes that need to be patched.
Nope, especially in the case of bugs, they’re usually widely reported. And I have seen no such reports.
 
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It should already, it’s no different than AirPods Pro 2. Neither does the SE need anything. Only Apple’s 5G chip is new.
Powerbeats have heart rate sensors so absolutely different to the Air Pods Pro, plus stuff like the magic track pad with USB C still needed software updates to work.
 
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Powerbeats have heart rate sensors so absolutely different to the Air Pods Pro, plus stuff like the magic track pad with USB C still needed software updates to work.
Exactly, Apple always, as far as I’m aware, adds support for new hardware in a new software update that is usually released when the new hardware becomes available, which is usually about a week or so after it’s announced. iOS 18.3.1 is likely to be that update that adds support for the new hardware.
 
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