iOS 18 Speculation Thread

[gank41]

So are we thinking iOS 18 b3 on July 8th, and then Public Beta on the 9th? Or do you think they'd wait for b4 for the PB?

 

[Realityck]

So are we thinking iOS 18 b3 on July 8th, and then Public Beta on the 9th? Or do you think they'd wait for b4 for the PB?

PB will be Beta 3 IMHO, dates likely as you said. Monday must be the new norm. They did mention the PB would be in July, not mid, or late July.

 

[gwhizkids]

PB will be Beta 3 IMHO, dates likely as you said. Monday must be the new norm. They did mention the PB would be in July, not mid, or late July.

Pretty sure ”July” means the whole month.

I also don’t think the next beta will be on Monday July 8th. Everyone will be returning from a long four day Independence Day holiday weekend. It will be Tuesday, July 9th at the earliest.

 

[dazcox5181]

I’m actually wondering if they’ll push a week later than week of the 8th, given a lot will be on vacation next week, I wonder if that will cause a longer cycle for b2 so that b3 lines up to pb1.
I know the betas are “locked down” sooner anyway, but just a thought. Anyway, for now have downgraded all my devices back to stable releases for now. Confirmed my apps I maintain for work all run fine so far, no dev work planned as yet so I’m out for a bit

 

[Realityck]

I’m actually wondering if they’ll push a week later than week of the 8th, given a lot will be on vacation next week, I wonder if that will cause a longer cycle for b2 so that b3 lines up to pb1.
I know the betas are “locked down” sooner anyway, but just a thought. Anyway, for now have downgraded all my devices back to stable releases for now. Confirmed my apps I maintain for work all run fine so far, no dev work planned as yet so I’m out for a bit

I guess it depends on how in house beta 3 works out. 2022 July 4th (holiday) was a Monday and the 16.0 B3 seed was Monday July 11th. 2023 July 4th (holiday) was a Tuesday and the 17.0 B3 seed was Tuesday July 11th. This year July 4th is on a Thursday, so Monday is the 8th, Tuesday 9th. The 17.0 beta kernel chosen was Jun 30th. The 16.0 beta kernel chosen was June 28th.

So this long weekend of July 4th 2024 (Thurs/Friday) has a few days before that to select kernel and builds for the iOS 18 beta 3 build even with its being closer to July 8th or July 9th.

 

[originalmagneto]

I have a horrible battlife with my watch series 6 and other big bugs in iPadOS. I think there will be a small beta update next week, beta 2 is horrible. My guess is dev beta 3 (no meaningful new feature, just major bugfixes) monday the 1st and then a public beta 1 release on the 8th.

 

[gwhizkids]

I have a horrible battlife with my watch series 6 and other big bugs in iPadOS. I think there will be a small beta update next week, beta 2 is horrible. My guess is dev beta 3 (no meaningful new feature, just major bugfixes) monday the 1st and then a public beta 1 release on the 8th.

I suspect none of those will occur.

- Bugs are typical in betas. That’s why they tell you not to install them on devices you depend on. They aren’t going to release bug fixing mini-betas unless there is something seriously wrong. It has happened but its very very rare. I don’t get the vibes that we’re in one of those situations.
-We just got a new beta this week. At this point in the cycle, its two weeks between betas. Admittedly, things are different this year because of Apple Intelligence, but I don’t see them deviating from the two week cycle, particularly during a holiday week here in the US.
-I suspect there will be more features in Dev Beta 3. Not sure what, but I think more stuff will drop. I think Dev Beta 3 will come on Tuesday, July 9. People will just be returning to work at Apple on Monday, July 8th after what will be for most (at least) a four day holiday weekend. Look for the Public Beta two days later.

 

[Premium1]

I have a horrible battlife with my watch series 6 and other big bugs in iPadOS. I think there will be a small beta update next week, beta 2 is horrible. My guess is dev beta 3 (no meaningful new feature, just major bugfixes) monday the 1st and then a public beta 1 release on the 8th.

I guess I got lucky, both beta 1 and 2 have been pretty solid on my M1 iPad Pro.

 

[john991]

Beta 3 week of July 8th due to US holiday.

Am I correct on this?

 

[Realityck]

Beta 3 week of July 8th due to US holiday.

Am I correct on this?

That is the consensus. Each beta approx 2 weeks apart.

 

[sniffies]

Beta 3 not until August due to US holiday and everyone still being on vacation and whatnot.

 

[Realityck]

iOS 18 Public Beta: Coming Soon to Your iPhone? We Think It's Close

Impatient for iOS 18 but don't want to get burned by an early prerelease version? The first iOS 18 public beta is likely just around the corner.

www.cnet.com

Looking at the schedule of past beta releases, and considering the iOS 18 beta 2 arrived just two weeks after the first one, we estimate the public beta could be available sooner than we first thought.

That means the iOS 18 public beta could approximately arrive as early as July 8, 2024.

I guess this feeling is based on beta 2 dropping only 14 days later?

 

[gwhizkids]

iOS 18 Public Beta: Coming Soon to Your iPhone? We Think It's Close

Impatient for iOS 18 but don't want to get burned by an early prerelease version? The first iOS 18 public beta is likely just around the corner.

www.cnet.com

I guess this feeling is based on beta 2 dropping only 14 days later?

That’s likely not going to happen.

Why? Because of the following:

There almost certainly will be no developer betas next week (wk of July 1j. For many Apple employees it will be a 3 day work week (or even a zero day work week) due to the Independence Day holiday falling on a Thursday (7/4).

Employees return to the office on 7/8 and it seems unlikely that they release DP3 that day but more likely on Tuesday, 7/9.

Then, I would be shocked if they deviate from having a two day gap between the Developer Preview and the corresponding release of the same software build as Public Beta 1. If that holds, then it is most likely that the first public beta would come no earlier than Thursday 7/11.

Of course, this is Apple, and in particular Apple in a Hurry to Join the AI Revolution. That Apple sends to play by slightly different rules, so I could be entirely wrong here.

Addendum - another reason to ignore the CNET speculation: In laying out the dates the first public betas were released in previous years, they forgot that WWDC was held a week later than normal this year so the first Developer Preview was also released a week later. Logically then, comparisons against earlier years should have a week will tacked on to account for this.

 

[one more]

That’s likely not going to happen.

Why? Because of the following:

There almost certainly will be no developer betas next week (wk of July 1j. For many Apple employees it will be a 3 day work week (or even a zero day work week) due to the Independence Day holiday falling on a Thursday (7/4).

Employees return to the office on 7/8 and it seems unlikely that they release DP3 that day but more likely on Tuesday, 7/9.

Then, I would be shocked if they deviate from having a two day gap between the Developer Preview and the corresponding release of the same software build as Public Beta 1. If that holds, then it is most likely that the first public beta would come no earlier than Thursday 7/11.

Of course, this is Apple, and in particular Apple in a Hurry to Join the AI Revolution. That Apple sends to play by slightly different rules, so I could be entirely wrong here.

Addendum - another reason to ignore the CNET speculation: In laying out the dates the first public betas were released in previous years, they forgot that WWDC was held a week later than normal this year so the first Developer Preview was also released a week later, also. Logically then, comparisons against earlier years should have a week will tacked on to account for this.

There is nothing preventing Apple to release the DB3 on Tuesday, 9 July, and then follow up with the PB1 on Wednesday, 10 July.

FWIW, anybody from a super eager public lot can install a DB2 right now with the respective IPSW file. This is what I did on my backup iPhone a few days ago. The same will go for DB3, as soon as its IPSW file is up. 🖐️

 

[Realityck]

That’s likely not going to happen.

Why? Because of the following:

There almost certainly will be no developer betas next week (wk of July 1j. For many Apple employees it will be a 3 day work week (or even a zero day work week) due to the Independence Day holiday falling on a Thursday (7/4).

Employees return to the office on 7/8 and it seems unlikely that they release DP3 that day but more likely on Tuesday, 7/9.

What is so awful about this comment?

That means the iOS 18 public beta could approximately arrive as early as July 8, 2024.

There is a slight chance Monday, more like Tuesday or Wednesday, but diffidently happening the week of July 8th.

 

[KurtWilde]

The real question is will beta 3 bring the new Siri UI and some of the other updates around that

 

[gwhizkids]

The real question is will beta 3 bring the new Siri UI and some of the other updates around that

My money says ”no” but that it will appear in ether DP 4 or DP 5. The question is whether there will be correpsonding public betas when this happens. I am 50/50 on that.

 

[KurtWilde]

My money says ”no” but that it will appear in ether DP 4 or DP 5. The question is whether there will be correpsonding public betas when this happens. I am 50/50 on that.

The public beta will definitely be a beta or two behind receiving these more advanced/updated iOS 18 features.

 

[Ansath]

The public beta will definitely be a beta or two behind receiving these more advanced/updated iOS 18 features.

It’s been the norm that the PB is the same build as the DB that comes out that same week, so your statement is unlikely.

The Apple Intelligence - they’ve said it will be released gradually, but not sure if it’s free for all to EN-US during the beta, then public launch is limited within that region/language setting, or if it’s limited amount of people whilst in the betas too.

 

[gwhizkids]

It’s been the norm that the PB is the same build as the DB that comes out that same week, so your statement is unlikely.

The Apple Intelligence - they’ve said it will be released gradually, but not sure if it’s free for all to EN-US during the beta, then public launch is limited within that region/language setting, or if it’s limited amount of people whilst in the betas too.

And I’m not sure if there won’t be a second “developer only” phase with respect to those features only. But that may be more complicated than even Apple wants to administer.

 

[Realityck]

And I’m not sure if there won’t be a second “developer only” phase with respect to those features only. But that may be more complicated than even Apple wants to administer.

https://www.macrumors.com/2024/06/10/ios-18-apple-intelligence-limited-preview/

In ‌iOS 18‌, Apple Intelligence is codenamed Graymatter. There are references to a waitlist, with specific strings that say "Join the Graymatter Waiting List" and "Joined Waitlist." There is also wording that refers to it as a "limited preview."

I seen them refer Apple Intelligence as preview thru iOS 18, and then it remains beta into 2025. As you suggested this additional of AI as a suite of additional features to be incorporated is a lot more then they have ever tackled in a long time.

 

[winxmac]

iOS 18 DB 3 week of July 7

 

[gwhizkids]

iOS 18 DB 3 week of July 7

Most likely, yes.

 

[Realityck]

On the topic of Apple Intelligence along with iOS18.

Apple’s Devices Are Lasting Longer, Making AI Strategy Even More Critical

Apple’s strategy to make its devices last longer will mean AI and software are even more important to its business. Also: Apple Intelligence is in the works for the Vision Pro; iOS 19 is already in development; why the company isn’t discussing an AI deal with Meta; and the driving force behind...

www.bloomberg.com

The end result: Getting average consumers to regularly upgrade to a new model is harder than it used to be. Shoppers also are contending with inflation and worsening trade-in deals — or simply holding on to their cash in an uncertain economy.

But the broader trend has left Apple with a less reliable growth engine — something that’s evident in its finances lately. Sales have declined in five of the past six quarters, and it’s critical that the company finds new sources of revenue.

The good news: Though Apple’s hardware is doing less to inspire upgrades, it has a growing opportunity to entice customers with software and artificial intelligence.

That should be evident this fall. The upcoming iPhone 16 lineup won’t have a ton of hardware changes, but customers will need a recent model if they want to use the new Apple Intelligence features.

The Apple Intelligence capabilities, including an upgraded version of Siri, will be the biggest test of whether software can drive a hardware sales surge. The features are likely to be a centerpiece of Apple’s marketing for the iPhone 16, just as ads for the original Siri helped drive sales of the iPhone 4S in 2011.

The slowing pace of hardware upgrades also will force Apple to rely more on services fees and subscriptions to fuel sales. If you’re wondering why Apple is fighting so hard to keep every penny it can from the App Store — despite scrutiny from regulators — it’s because this category is so important to future revenue.

There’s an opportunity to turn AI features and other software into paid services, but it will take time. Though Apple Intelligence will be free to start, the long-term plan is to make money off the capabilities. The company could eventually launch something like “Apple Intelligence+” — with extra features that users pay monthly fees for, just like iCloud. On top of that, Apple will get a cut of the subscription revenue from every AI partner that it brings onboard.

Apple Explains iPhone 15 Pro Requirement for Apple Intelligence

With iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia, Apple is introducing a new personalized AI experience called Apple Intelligence that uses on-device,...

www.macrumors.com

The iPhone 15 Pro models use the A17 Pro chip, which has a 16-core Neural Engine that's up to 2x faster than the A16 chip found in the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, performing nearly 35 trillion operations per second. Federighi hinted that RAM is also another aspect of the system that the new AI features require, so it is perhaps no coincidence that all the devices compatible with Apple Intelligence have at least 8GB of RAM.

Despite the cutoff, owners of older iPhones still have plenty to look forward to in Apple's upcoming software update: iOS 18 boasts several new features besides Apple Intelligence, and every iPhone that can run iOS 17 is compatible with iOS 18. That includes the iPhone XR from 2018.

Time will tell how well we fare on the last paragraph.

 

[one more]

On the topic of Apple Intelligence along with iOS18.

Apple’s Devices Are Lasting Longer, Making AI Strategy Even More Critical

Apple’s strategy to make its devices last longer will mean AI and software are even more important to its business. Also: Apple Intelligence is in the works for the Vision Pro; iOS 19 is already in development; why the company isn’t discussing an AI deal with Meta; and the driving force behind...

www.bloomberg.com

Apple Explains iPhone 15 Pro Requirement for Apple Intelligence

With iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia, Apple is introducing a new personalized AI experience called Apple Intelligence that uses on-device,...

www.macrumors.com

Time will tell how well we fare on the last paragraph.

The AI, moving in so fast, has already collected quite a bit of negative press in the mainstream media - from unforeseen and uncontrollable data leaks to outright apocalyptic scenario. Therefore, I think Apple might have made a tactical mistake of only enabling their AI model on their latest devices. Instead they could have blended the current “deficient” Siri with ChatGPT (both of which could function in their current online mode) and let it run, impressing people and getting them more comfortable. They could then introduce the on-device model over the next few years, once the hardwire of most people catches up. We shall see.