Gen 3 or 4 is when the AVP will really go bonkers. Just like the iPhone did after 4 or 4S.
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Kinda doubt about Vision Pros' future.
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Hmm .. Apparently only the tip of the Vision Pro Spatial Computing iceberg is discernible when viewed from the AR/VR/MR titanic.
Gen 3,4 will still not gonna be bonkers as long as AR/VR/MR devices are not convincing consumers to use which is a main issue. There were smaller and lighter AR/VR devices a while ago and yet, they failed.
At least iPhone or smartphone and mobile phones were being essential for a long time. Dont differentiate between smartphone and mobile phone cause they are fundamentally same.
No product is essential when it launches. How could it be?
The difference is that when the iPhone was launched, most people had the problems that the smartphone helped with. Most people could see the usefulness from day one, even if they didn't think they really needed it.
The smartphone became essential because of how useful and convenient it was to solve those problems that most people already had, and they couldn't see going back to solving those problems in the older less convenient ways.
But right now, at launch, most people don't really have the problems that the AVP solves or helps with or makes more convenient. So, that's the difference.
For example, I am back to life without iPad or Apple Watch after having both at one point. They weren't really essential like the smartphone.
Esp the tablet market it totally sucked. You would never want one it was slow and clunky to use. Apple made it trendy and made it lighter. The key there is they used a better designed OS and powerful enough arm processor and led the way with the iPhone. Also the price was right.
Does the Vision Pro do this for VR? I dunno but I’m so glad they made it. “Apple is iterative no innovation” Apple innovates with new platform and new ideas for that market “this is too innovative but not useful it’s not going to work”. lol
I wonder how old you are. I don’t mean it as a dig, but do you remember the state of cell phones prior to 2007? They were more popular than they were in the late 90s and early 2000s, but only as a way of reaching someone. Nobody was using the internet or email or anything on their phone outside of specific business cases. (Some were, but nothing like is common place today) and it was the existence of the iPhone that created a space to expand the idea of what a phone could do and why it was essential. And this didn’t happen with the first iPhone. The first iPhone started it, but it was a few generations before it really caught fire as we’re used to today. I think your analysis is just a little short sighted. The Vision Pro has only been out a couple weeks. I don’t think anyone can say with certainty what is coming next.
I don't understand it myself
The iPhone is the anomaly, not the norm
Implying that anything is, or will be, "like the iPhone" is a mistake
Basically nothing out there, from any company, is "like the iPhone"
The AVP is likely less iPhone and more HomePod.
I’m not sure I understand why so many here seem to be emotionally invested in the success of this product. The truth is, the AVP does have some good tech and seems to be engineered well, but it doesn’t solve any problem.
At this point seems to have ignited more interest in the Quest 3, which is currently the better product.
How the next two versions iterate on the current model remains to be seen, but at this time there really isn’t anything to justify buying it now. I have zero issue with this product failing as releasing a half baked product at $3,500 is the epitome of Apples’ hubris.
I’m not sure I understand why so many here seem to be emotionally invested in the success of this product. The truth is, the AVP does have some good tech and seems to be engineered well, but it doesn’t solve any problem.
At this point seems to have ignited more interest in the Quest 3, which is currently the better product.
How the next two versions iterate on the current model remains to be seen, but at this time there really isn’t anything to justify buying it now. I have zero issue with this product failing as releasing a half baked product at $3,500 is the epitome of Apples’ hubris.
Huh? No. Just. No. But perhaps visual communication will help.
Mobile Phone:
Smart phone, same era.
You are crawling out on a thin branch, to support your position that the iPhone was obvious an extension of the time. Here is a saw in case you need help explaining how these are fundamentally the same.
Time will tell how the market responds to AVP. Nobody knows it except for Apple. We cannot rely on any negative and positive posts on Macrumors because the posters are not representing entire AVP buyers who keep and return the device in the real world as we are only small percentage of Apple supporters and non supporters in this site. Apple checks the real data sales and product return and will determine the next steps are. Keep calm, be patient and observant on what is unfolding for this device and be happy on whatever outcomes Apple will present. 😊 Life is too short to be unhappy and full of negativity towards anything 😊 Enjoy life to the full by always thinking positive 😊
Except it's not an anomaly for Apple. They redefined the MP3 market, the digital music download market, the smart watch market, the tablet market, not to mention the computer market in terms of the GUI interface (redundant I know).
Now sure, Apple has had its blunders. I cringe at the lost potential in Siri, but Apple has a proven track record in upsetting the apple cart (see what I did there? LOL). The point many people with an open mind are trying to make is, it's just too early to tell where this is going.
Both of them are PHONES. DO YOU NOT GET IT? They are in the same categories. Phones became smarter so it's smartphone. Beside, PDA phones were available before iPhone released. Such a joke.
The joke is you think all phones are the same. They just aren't. They may all be able to make calls, but then again so could this...
But okay, you want to say all phones are the same and Alexander Graham bell invited the smart phone market. Cool.
Epic fail. Since you failed to prove your logic, why not spend your time on elsewhere?
They are all phones and still essential. End of the story. They've been essential and advanced a long time unlike AR/VR/MR. Why is it so hard to understand?
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Sure, the Vision Pro may fail… or it may be a success. Only time will tell.
Most ideas, innovations, and new products fail. So do most startups (around 90% in the U.S.). But this doesn’t mean that the failed products or startups shouldn’t have been launched. The point is that success is inherently uncertain until a new product or new business are launched. Once in the market, if you learn that the demand for a new product isn’t large enough, you scrap the product and thus limit your losses. If the new product succeeds, you reap the net present value from selling it for a long time. Hence, the downside and upside are not symmetric.
For these reasons, it’s entirely rational to launch new products even if there’s a large chance of failure.
Actually, we should be grateful to all innovators, including Apple, that they take risks and launch new products even if the success isn’t guaranteed. If the new product is great, we win, and if it’s bad, the cost is borne by Apple’s shareholders 😉.
iPhone was entertainment device when it launched, so I was iPad. Steve introduced it as iPod+Phone + full browser. Same for iPad, you can’t compare iPhone now with original iPhone either. Same goes for original mac, pocket calculators now do more than original Mac.
I’m returning mine, but that said, the potential is clear to me.
OP is missing the “computing” part of “spatial computing.” Sit down with your AVP and a Bluetooth keyboard and access your Mac, and you’ll see a glimpse of what could be possible in the future.
Is that a preferred way to work now? No. There aren’t ENOUGH benefits to make it worth the trade offs. In the future? This could rock where Spaces, Stage Manager, etc. have all been imperfect — and much more.
As someone who uses 3 monitors, I absolutely can envision where this could go and the power it could bring in the not-too-distant future.
OP is missing the “computing” part of “spatial computing.” Sit down with your AVP and a Bluetooth keyboard and access your Mac, and you’ll see a glimpse of what could be possible in the future.
Is that a preferred way to work now? No. There aren’t ENOUGH benefits to make it worth the trade offs. In the future? This could rock where Spaces, Stage Manager, etc. have all been imperfect — and much more.
As someone who uses 3 monitors, I absolutely can envision where this could go and the power it could bring in the not-too-distant future.
Everyone keeps saying things like this..
The AVP never should have left the lab
It's not a product, but rather a tech demo that shows this all needs a lot more work.
Agreeing and disagreeing is fun!
I guess the difference is usefulness. You gotta admit the smartphone is way more generally useful than a AR/VR headset. Let's look at the other markets that apple redefined and succeeded with.
MP3 player: have all your music with you instead of having to decide which you wanted to bring. most people had that problem and saw the usefulness.
Digital Music: buy just the tracks you want, instant download and listen. Most people had bought an entire album for a single good song before, or had spent time looking for specific CDs or songs and having a hard time finding them. Most people had the problem and saw the usefulness.
Smart watches: most people by this time had smartphones that got a bunch of notifications. They saw the usefulness of not having to take their phone out of their pocket, and later the health stuff.
computer market: most people had the problems the computer helps with, even if they had different ways of solving them at the time. GUI interface was more convenient and useful than command line.
What does the AVP have that is comparable to these? I just don't see it.
@sunny5 the issue is that you are stating your opinion ("I don't see a viable consumer use case for headsets and therefore AVP is going to fail" - which is a COMPLETELY VALID opinion to hold, even if I disagree) as fact using cherry-picked "logic" and revisionist history that clearly doesn't hold up if you were old enough to be around when those products debuted. (While missing/ignoring the people telling you the same opinion was also stated by Mac, iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch naysayers when those products were launched). When someone points out "well, actually smartphones weren't essential when the iPhone came out" you reply YOUR LOGIC FAILED because they were clearly going to be essential because phones were essential. Which isn't true, and also not how to win a debate
Again, I am not saying AVP is going to be the iPhone. I don't think there will ever be another iPhone. I am not saying headsets will be "essential." I am not saying the AVP will succeed. Again, I am still not sure if I am keeping mine - probably will, but there's a decent chance I return it. I CERTAINLY wouldn't recommend any friends or family buy one at this stage. But I do see the potential there - and I can see a lot of it!
At a certain point Apple needs to get something out there so when the technology gets mature enough that it is a sub $2000 product, the bugs have been quashed, there is a mature app ecosystem, more and better 3D/immersive content, and yes, use cases that are clear to normal people, not just tech nerds and early adopters like me. Did Apple release a year or two too early? Maybe! But that's why it's fun and interesting they did it. They've been attacked for years now for just doing boring spec bumps. This is certainly not that!
Again, I am not saying AVP is going to be the iPhone. I don't think there will ever be another iPhone. I am not saying headsets will be "essential." I am not saying the AVP will succeed. Again, I am still not sure if I am keeping mine - probably will, but there's a decent chance I return it. I CERTAINLY wouldn't recommend any friends or family buy one at this stage. But I do see the potential there - and I can see a lot of it!
At a certain point Apple needs to get something out there so when the technology gets mature enough that it is a sub $2000 product, the bugs have been quashed, there is a mature app ecosystem, more and better 3D/immersive content, and yes, use cases that are clear to normal people, not just tech nerds and early adopters like me. Did Apple release a year or two too early? Maybe! But that's why it's fun and interesting they did it. They've been attacked for years now for just doing boring spec bumps. This is certainly not that!
You're not going to get a $899 Vision Air under the 2030 Christmas tree if you don't start now. The Toyota Camry didn't unseat the Ford Taurus in its first 10 model years.
As simple as that. Will AVP be the next iPhone and in every other American's pocket? Probably not. Can it carve an Apple Watch or even iPad-like niche and push AR/VR to new buyers? Absolutely.
As simple as that. Will AVP be the next iPhone and in every other American's pocket? Probably not. Can it carve an Apple Watch or even iPad-like niche and push AR/VR to new buyers? Absolutely.
Why do I keep seeing this fantasy over and over?
The original iPhone sold 4x as well as expected. The iPhone 3G which adopted the standard phone subsidy model was a breakout hit.
By WWDC 2009, they had sold around 40 million iPhones:
Agree to disagree, agreed lol. But in this case, you seem to be agreeing with my point that Apple was not just a one hit wonder, that rattling the industry was a norm. Where we might disagree is the what most people 'saw', or more to the point, how obvious it was after the fact than before. Or as the sainted Steve Jobs once remarked, he didn't believe in focus groups because people would only tell you what they already knew, not what they wanted that was novel. for example, once the iPod was out (and established), sure then people saw the utility. But not before. And btw, if you don't recall, or weren't there, the GUI was put down as being too slow, that people could do things faster by command line. Moving groups of files was a common example given by those putting down GUI.
The point is, it's too early to tell about what might become obvious with the AVP. What we might agree on is that won't happen until it's more mainstream. Where we might disagree on what will that take? Apple seems to think that is going to take getting Developers to line up with a different way of thinking. That these devices are not just for games. That you don't have to carry around and use a specific controller. That tracking eyes has utility. And that the way past many of the discomfort problems is low latency and high resolution (granted they still have high weight). And getting developers to line up requires devices. A solid proof of concept. And that is what the AVP is today. It's not the ending but the beginning and certainly NOT for everyone, or even most.
But to bite on what function is there that I don't have with any other Apple device? They have pushed the portability envelope, for function past the phone, past the iPad, and past the laptop. Hear me out, when you use one, you suddenly not have one iPad screen, you have as many as you want, where you want, in really glorious high resolution. It's great for multi tasking. Different apps at the same time (like your computer). But unlike your computer it's easy to spread the pages out. But if you want a widescreen tv experience, you got that too. Or large display monitor for your computer. It's that too.
It doesn't make regular phone calls yet. Granted. It's not replacing now my phone, my computer, my tv, or even my pad. I still find the iPad easier to use in bed for reading for example. But for multi window experience I pack the pillows behind me and sit further up.
Around version 3 or 4 is when the tech enables to bring this much function to a more affordable and hence available device. It compliments rather than replaces what you have.