Kinda doubt about Vision Pros' future.

[G5isAlive]

The way I see it now is, do I want to wear a large pair of VR/AR goggles to watch a film or navigate around my computer, or would I prefer to work on a laptop, browse on an iPad, or watch a film on my big TV? The more traditional tech still overrules it and I’m not a single man where I do those things on my own.

I agree. I haven't abandoned my 70 inch OLED tv yet. Nor have I abandoned my iPad reading in bed. And yep, still have my three monitor set up at work.

But it's a lot like people who say "I don't like phone calls. I would rather talk to a person face to face". Of course I would rather talk face to face. Well except for my mother in law (cheap joke). Sometimes we use our phone because thats what we have.

I don't have a three monitor set up in front of my couch. I use my APV. I dont have a wide screen tv in my hotel room. I use my APV. I don't have a computer sitting out on my cabin deck. I use my APV. Yep. Outside. But there are only squirrels and the occasional bear to laugh at me.

But I dont mind wearing the headset. And what the AVP brings to me is Freedom.

And oh, I am not a single PERSON (not sure what role gender has here) either. I have been married for 42 years, and sometimes that means I DO do things alone lol. Don't tell me your spouse hasn't once or twice told you to get out of their face. lol. That happens more when the kids leave the home and the honeymoon has faded a bit.

 

[heretiq]

Lot of it comes from FOMO, and need to justify it’s a bad product either because of affordability or availability. I am not going to buy Gen 1, but I am happy for those who bought AVP and enjoying the device. Outside of threads based on YouTube Videos, I have got some good feedback from the actual users. It’s far from perfect device, as expected with Gen 1. But, it would be foolish to dismiss, it doesn’t offer anything new.

Agree completely. What a lot of the know-it-alls are missing is that this release is primarily about building Spatial Computing infrastructure (sensors, real/virtual world and application programming interfaces, spatial abstraction/computation/design/development/deployment/distribution/privacy frameworks, operating system, and other foundational elements) with secondary focus on largely proof of concept demos vs mature applications.

Laying this foundation first will accelerate app development by providing (a) a complete ecosystem where developers can focus almost exclusively on app conceptualization, design and development vs spatial computing plumbing and tooling, (b) relatively easy porting of existing apps to visionOS, and (c) a true Greenfield development environment with minimal spatial app competition from the platform provider (Apple). The platform will be increasingly attractive to developers (both existing and new) as the tooling matures over the next 6 to 24 months, and expect to see some significant announcements as early as WWDC 2024.

 

[G5isAlive]

Outside of tech forums I don’t know one single person that is remotely interested in it. If the subject comes up, the entire concept is roundly rejected.

All of my friends ask me about it, precisely because they don't want to be bothered with tech forums, and they know I am a good source of information. A member of my company's board forwarded to me that article by Atlantic that really was stupid, and I replied on what I thought that was contrary to it, and what I saw as the good points and the bad points. Before I knew it she had forwarded my letter on to the other board members and they were calling me for my opinion. I tell them all, it's probably not for you, but here is why I like it. Apparently one board member ignored my advice and bought it anyway. Oh well. I tried! If he calls with another question I am going to ask for a raise.

 

[heretiq]

In 1974, the Xerox Alto existed, a desktop computer with a bitmapped display, 3-button-mouse, keyboard, and a GUI (and which inspired the Lisa and the Mac). That’s essentially still what we use today for productive work. There’s a good chance that’s what will still be used in 50 years.

The other thing is, we have no idea at present how to achieve 3D AR/VR in a glasses form factor. This will require technological leaps whose timing can’t be predicted. They could come in ten years, or never. It’s in a similar category as FSD cars or fusion reactors.

Are you familiar with accelerating technology innovation and adoption cycles? See primer below. Notice how the adoption curve is getting steeper and time from inception to mass adoption is generally decreasing over time?

Two things:

(1) Vision Pro is a multimodal spatial interface (i.e., visual/GUI, audible, and eventually haptic) so of course the GUI won't go away and doesn't have to go away for Vision Pro to succeed.

(2) Timing of technology leaps are absolutely predictable -- not by arm-chair technologists -- but certainly by people who do this professionally and know what they are talking about (research the study of technology horizons to gain some insight into how this is done).

Net-net: Apple knows exactly when they will have a VP device in a "glasses" form factor. Contrary to the opinions of the know-it-alls, Apple are too smart to make such a large investment in a technology platform and public promotion without knowing this -- as well as the timeline for every intermediate iteration of the device.

 

[basehead617]

You might say I'm trolling but hear me out: Unlike iPhone, Apple Watch, iPad, and Mac, Vision Pro is NOT an essential device which is a huge problem.

None of those are 'essential' either, which is why the world got on just fine before any of them existed.

What it needs is a critical mass of a base of users for the product, then more and more uses for it will emerge.

 

[G5isAlive]

iPad is still considered as a bigger iPhone. Still limited for its hardware performance. That's why many users demand macOS on iPad.

People can demand whatever they wish too, consider it however they want to consider it... hasn't stopped Apple from selling over 600 million of them since they were released... 60.4 million in 2022 alone. If its just a bigger iPhone, got to wonder why people are buying it.

 

[heretiq]

The AVP is likely less iPhone and more HomePod.


I’m not sure I understand why so many here seem to be emotionally invested in the success of this product. The truth is, the AVP does have some good tech and seems to be engineered well, but it doesn’t solve any problem.

At this point seems to have ignited more interest in the Quest 3, which is currently the better product.

How the next two versions iterate on the current model remains to be seen, but at this time there really isn’t anything to justify buying it now. I have zero issue with this product failing as releasing a half baked product at $3,500 is the epitome of Apples’ hubris.

I think the pushback you are seeing is not emotional investment in the success of AVP but a reaction to the baseless assault on the device by people who've never used it yet insist on reducing it to simply an AR/VR/MR headset and projecting failure on it based on past failed AR/VR/MR efforts -- often in opposition to the informed opinion of people who have actually used it and/or have taken the time to inform themselves about it.

 

[earthdog]

You might say I'm trolling but hear me out: Unlike iPhone, Apple Watch, iPad, and Mac, Vision Pro is NOT an essential device which is a huge problem.

You have several areas you are right. BUT I'll take that BET against you. Has Apple had failures yes but conceptually this will be a win.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I agree. I haven't abandoned my 70 inch OLED tv yet. Nor have I abandoned my iPad reading in bed. And yep, still have my three monitor set up at work.

But it's a lot like people who say "I don't like phone calls. I would rather talk to a person face to face". Of course I would rather talk face to face. Well except for my mother in law (cheap joke). Sometimes we use our phone because thats what we have.

I don't have a three monitor set up in front of my couch. I use my APV. I dont have a wide screen tv in my hotel room. I use my APV. I don't have a computer sitting out on my cabin deck. I use my APV. Yep. Outside. But there are only squirrels and the occasional bear to laugh at me.

But I dont mind wearing the headset. And what the AVP brings to me is Freedom.

The product has a market for sure, I just think the hype well exceeds the appeal, but then tech forums always will do that.

And oh, I am not a single PERSON (not sure what role gender has here) either. I have been married for 42 years, and sometimes that means I DO do things alone lol. Don't tell me your spouse hasn't once or twice told you to get out of their face. lol. That happens more when the kids leave the home and the honeymoon has faded a bit.

Gender has nothing to do with it, the product appeals to anybody I would say. I don’t get a lot of time to do things on my own, hence why I’ve got a PS5 gathering dust as we speak.

 

[Rogifan]

The Vision Pro is now Apple's halo product (adiós Mac Pro). It creates a Disneyland-in-your-living-room experience for customers who can afford it. And for everyone else, it's an aspirational product. At the very least it will generate more interest in the Apple brand like any good halo product is supposed to do.

What’s aspirational about it?

 

[TechnoMonk]

This never gets old.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758284774941299088

 

[turbineseaplane]

None of those are 'essential' either

A smartphone of some kind is bordering on truly essential at this point
(Much to my chagrin)

 

[Rogifan]

This never gets old.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758284774941299088

The original iPhone was too expensive. Hence why there were several price cuts after it was released.

 

[TechnoMonk]

A smartphone of some kind is bordering on truly essential at this point
(Much to my chagrin)

Hardly. You don’t need any gadget, just food, water and a roof. Everything is a want. Humans survived fine with out any devices.

 

[TechnoMonk]

The original iPhone was too expensive. Hence why there were several price cuts after it was released.

It wasn’t price cuts, it was ATT offering it part of their contract. It makes perfect sense, as pretty much all the phones in the US were offered as part of monthly contract, rather than upfront price. In fact the Average selling Price of the iPhone has constantly gone up.

 

[H_D]

The AVP still has a long way to go, technologically as well as in terms of integration into the Apple ecosphere as well as a social contract of how to deal with a device like that (and we barely have come to terms with the invasion of the mobile devices that changed the way we operate in public and private). It might become a terrible flop when people decide that these kind of VR glasses are not like headphones and dorky to wear in public – and thus share the fate of the AirPodMax which I seldom see in public, it might become something as ubiquitous as the iPhone is today. No matter what, it is actually nice that Apple TRIES stuff and puts something on the table that is not a safe bet after a decade of devices that felt very timid in their vision... MacBooks without touchscreens, iPads without usable OS, HomePods without Subwoofer etc... it would do Apple hella good to try to put some really nerdy device on the market and make it work as a product. Personally, I am floored by its potential & at the same time super afraid of the social consequences of a devices that will isolate people even further. iPhones, Social Media and Headphones have become a pest, putting individuals into ever smaller Silos of communication, making IRL interaction ever the more seldom and complicated... and I feel that despite all attempts at making it more «open» to your surroundings, these will isolate people even more.

 

[G5isAlive]

The product has a market for sure, I just think the hype well exceeds the appeal, but then tech forums always will do that.

Gender has nothing to do with it, the product appeals to anybody I would say. I don’t get a lot of time to do things on my own, hence why I’ve got a PS5 gathering dust as we speak.

I might agree with you on the hype prior to its release… but since then we have the haters still hating on those that actually have bought one and are reporting real use cases. So, yeah, maybe still some hype but at least at this point its informed.

As for gender I was commenting on the use of unmarried male… not unmarried person .

I have a home for that PS5 btw, my grown son would love it.

But yep, when my boys were young I would have problems justifying the cost considering its a private experience, except even then I spent a LOT of time traveling for work. And it is perfect for that.

 

[G5isAlive]

The AVP still has a long way to go, technologically as well as in terms of integration into the Apple ecosphere as well as a social contract of how to deal with a device like that (and we barely have come to terms with the invasion of the mobile devices that changed the way we operate in public and private). It might become a terrible flop when people decide that these kind of VR glasses are not like headphones and dorky to wear in public – and thus share the fate of the AirPodMax which I seldom see in public, it might become something as ubiquitous as the iPhone is today. No matter what, it is actually nice that Apple TRIES stuff and puts something on the table that is not a safe bet after a decade of devices that felt very timid in their vision... MacBooks without touchscreens, iPads without usable OS, HomePods without Subwoofer etc... it would do Apple hella good to try to put some really nerdy device on the market and make it work as a product. Personally, I am floored by its potential & at the same time super afraid of the social consequences of a devices that will isolate people even further. iPhones, Social Media and Headphones have become a pest, putting individuals into ever smaller Silos of communication, making IRL interaction ever the more seldom and complicated... and I feel that despite all attempts at making it more «open» to your surroundings, these will isolate people even more.

Just out of curiosity, just how many over the ear headphones DO you see in public? With perhaps the exception of the Beats which are a fashion accessory. A lot of companies wish they shared the ‘fate’ of the AirPodMax.

BTW, I just shared with my wife (via mirroring to our 70 inch OLED), panorama shots i had done on our trip to Japan, or on our Cruise to Grand Cayman, or sunsets from off the deck of our cabin in Maine. I don’t like how panorama shots look on my phone, but projecting them to the TV, it sees what I see as i look around and she was blown away too. It’s not as isolating as you might think. It’s not like i am playing games on it.

 

[G5isAlive]

The original iPhone was too expensive. Hence why there were several price cuts after it was released.

Not to nit pick. There was one price cut from Apple. And the original owners got a refund check in the mail. Not a bad deal. I enjoyed those early days, just like i am enjoying (except for the haters) these early days with my AVP. I wouldn’t say no to a check from Apple again though lol.

 

[TravelsInBlue]

This never gets old.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758284774941299088

I get the sentiment but I don’t really think this is a fair statement to hold against him.

At the end of the day Balmer is a marketer, and he’s not gonna say “man, that phone ***** all over our current offering.”

He’s going to give rehearsed corporate speak about their own offering, but then behind closed doors get their own teams developing something to play catchup… which ended up being the Windows Phone, which… also sucked.

 

[klasma]

Are you familiar with accelerating technology innovation and adoption cycles? See primer below. Notice how the adoption curve is getting steeper and time from inception to mass adoption is generally decreasing over time?

These are triggered by particular technologies becoming practical. We don’t have the technology for VR glasses to become practical. VR glasses aren’t just a somewhat faster or lighter or higher-resolution Vision Pro, they require a wholly different technology.

(2) Timing of technology leaps are absolutely predictable -- not by arm-chair technologists -- but certainly by people who do this professionally and know what they are talking about (research the study of technology horizons to gain some insight into how this is done).

This is wrong. If it were true, the stock market would price this in in advance. But surprisingly, stock prices suddenly surge when new technologies come to market. And just look at how fully self-driving cars were predicted to “come soon” but largely failed to materialize. Or how fusion reactors have been predicted to be “20 years off” for the past 60 years or so. Or how it’s still uncertain if and when micro-LED will be viable in consumer products.

Net-net: Apple knows exactly when they will have a VP device in a "glasses" form factor. Contrary to the opinions of the know-it-alls, Apple are too smart to make such a large investment in a technology platform and public promotion without knowing this -- as well as the timeline for every intermediate iteration of the device.

I’m laughing out loud. Apple has been developing this for a decade without any certainty that it would work out — just look at how the Apple Car has fared — and they only decided a year and a half ago that it might now be good enough to be a viable product — against internal opposition, as has been reported. I very much doubt they already know what the next iteration will include, or when they will release it.

You read like a delusional Apple fanatic.

 

[desslr]

You might say I'm trolling but hear me out: Unlike iPhone, Apple Watch, iPad, and Mac, Vision Pro is NOT an essential device which is a huge problem.


Truth be told, AR/VR/MR markets are extremely far from consumer markets which has been proven for several decades. Based on the history, any kind of consumer AR/VR/MR devices literally failed or disappeared because consumers were not convinced to buy and use. Instead, a lot of companies switched to B2B markets. Yes, AR/VR/MR markets still failed to justify and convince consumers to buy it due to many issues. You might say Meta Quest series are successful but they never did. They sold more than 20 million devices before Quest 3 released in 3 years and yet, they still considered as failure or not successful as people did not use it regularly.


If you think the time will solve the problem, think again and it never did. Having a lot of apps didnt really solve the problem like Mac App Store. Currently, all AR/VR/MR devices still failed for consumer markets while they have more uses for B2B markets such as MS HoloLens 2. Why? Because they lack contents and purposes. Vision Pro is nice and high-end product but still, it has issues that AR/VR/MR devices already had. Literally, who really wanna use Vision Pro instead of iPhone, iPad, and Mac? Vision Pro does NOT provide unique usages over other devices as consumers failed to see it essential. At least AR/VR/MR consumer devices have gaming purposes but Vision Pro does NOT support both PCVR and hardware controller which literally makes it impossible to port VR games. Even then, most VR games suck and there aren't many great games like Half-life: Alyx. Clearly, Vision Pro is limited compared to other devices.


Yes, at least Vision Pro has its own ecosystem unlike others but most of us still not convinced to use AR/VR/MR devices. That's a hard truth. Without purposes, it has no uses. Some people may say it works fine but they dont represent all users. Even Meta failed even if they sold more than 20 million devices as people did not use it well but less than 200,000? That's a joke and developers and companies aren't really willing to develop apps just for Vision Pro. 1000 native apps? Well, no killer apps so far. I'm still not convinced to use Vision Pro after I tested it several times. You see, AR/VR/MR markets aren't easy at all and that's why all companies are struggling with AR/VR/MR.


Even if Vision Pro becomes smaller and lighter, the purpose has to be given or consumers will NOT gonna buy it. Like I said before, Vision Pro or any kind of AR/VR/MR devices were never be essential like other devices that Apple created or at least have some purposes. At this point, Vision Pro has too limited usages while not convinced to replace Apple devices. As I checked the history of AR/VR/MR, I am doubtful about Vision Pro's future. The usage is too limited and there is really nothing I can do other than watching movies. I am not convinced to use and so others.


I'm not saying that Vision Pro is a total failure. But Vision Pro itself isn't really different from AR/VR/MR devices and for consumer markets, there are NO successful devices as of today and Meta is not even successful as well. From my own perspective, Apple really need to bring a cheap version as soon as possible while adding more and unique software features which can distinguish from other AR/VR/MR devices since Apple has a large ecosystem. Dont forget that Apple already had many failures with new technology such as Touch Bar, butterfly keyboard, Mac Pro 2013, lighting port, XDR stand, and more. Literally, AR/VR/MR devices are still not great for consumers and lacks contents and usages.



AR/VR/MR is still a whole new frontier and no consumer AR/VR/MR devices has ever succeeded. If Apple can not convince consumers to use Vision Pro due to limited usage and lack of contents, they aren't gonna end up being failure or a waste of money. At this point, Apple has to show something from WWDC 2024.

I was first to call it dead on arrival and was panned massively.

I am never wrong though.

I said judge me in two years but already that is looking generous!

 

[Jensend]

Dont forget that Apple already had many failures with new technology such as Touch Bar, butterfly keyboard, Mac Pro 2013, lighting port, XDR stand, and more.

How are the lighting port and XDR stand failures?

The problem is that AR/VR/MR markets are still niche and failed several times.

VR devices have been on the market continuously for 8 years now. Some VR platforms and individual products have failed but not the market as a whole. Yeah, it's a fairly niche market, but not a failed market.

Any VR headsets on the consumer market before about 8 years ago were so primitive that they are hardly worth mentioning except as a curiosity of history.

 

[Eso]

Are you familiar with accelerating technology innovation and adoption cycles? See primer below. Notice how the adoption curve is getting steeper and time from inception to mass adoption is generally decreasing over time?

Exactly - adoption. It’s how the usage of existing technologies changed over time. It’s also cherry-picked to show successful technologies.

That has nothing to do the core mechanism of a product changing from one technology to another. Maybe try graphing microwaves to teleportation pods.

Apple Vision Pro turning into a pair of glasses through which you look at real objects is probably closer to 200 years away than 20. It might even only ever be hypothetical, like anti-gravity or wormholes.

 

[3goldens]

"I was first to call it dead on arrival and was panned massively." Really?

"I am never wrong though". You are never wrong? What do you have a crystal ball? No one can tell the future. Nauseating to say the least!