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mattspace

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at the same time as a ridiculously expensive VR headset aimed at pros and enthusiasts.

Apple was also going to release a car, and had a huge staff, and massive research budgets, and Gurman etc had renderings of what it was expected to look like based on rumours... and no car.

I for one do not believe Apple can design, or fabricate an M-series GPU powerful enough to drive a "pro", let alone an "enthusiast" VR headset that would be competitive on price, or competitive on performance with the offerings already in today's market. I also don't believe the company has the culture to make a competitive 3D-based product.

Especially given the number of high end headsets which literally only work when plugged into an Nvidia GPU - even if Apple sticks with AMD for the next Mac Pro, I don't believe AMD has a GPU that's price, or performance competitive for VR with Nvidia.
 

prefuse07

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Apple was also going to release a car, and had a huge staff, and massive research budgets, and Gurman etc had renderings of what it was expected to look like based on rumours... and no car.

I for one do not believe Apple can design, or fabricate an M-series GPU powerful enough to drive a "pro", let alone an "enthusiast" VR headset that would be competitive on price, or competitive on performance with the offerings already in today's market. I also don't believe the company has the culture to make a competitive 3D-based product.

Especially given the number of high end headsets which literally only work when plugged into an Nvidia GPU - even if Apple sticks with AMD for the next Mac Pro, I don't believe AMD has a GPU that's price, or performance competitive for VR with Nvidia.

Agreed, and that's why I posted what I posted -- what they need more than anything is time
 

PineappleCake

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Apple was also going to release a car, and had a huge staff, and massive research budgets, and Gurman etc had renderings of what it was expected to look like based on rumours... and no car.

I for one do not believe Apple can design, or fabricate an M-series GPU powerful enough to drive a "pro", let alone an "enthusiast" VR headset that would be competitive on price, or competitive on performance with the offerings already in today's market. I also don't believe the company has the culture to make a competitive 3D-based product.

Especially given the number of high end headsets which literally only work when plugged into an Nvidia GPU - even if Apple sticks with AMD for the next Mac Pro, I don't believe AMD has a GPU that's price, or performance competitive for VR with Nvidia.
I will reserve my judgement till they release a Mx Pro or Max with hardware based RT.

Likely won't arrive till 2024/early 2025. A17 thats coming this year needs to have hardware RT otherwise Apple is going nowhere with its GPUs.
A17 GPU will make or break the M3 family GPUs.
 
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mattspace

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I will reserve my judgement till they release a Mx Pro or Max with hardware based RT.

It's only of use for VR if it's capable of doing full resolution in realtime.

"hardware-based Ray Tracing" doesn't automatically mean it can do the job in realtime - it might just mean "faster than doing it with the general-purpose GPU / CPU hardware.

Likely won't arrive till 2024/early 2025. A17 thats coming this year needs to have hardware RT otherwise Apple is going nowhere with its GPUs.

And in 2024/2025 Nvidia will be what multiple of their current performance, given their historical generation-over-generation improvements?
 
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PineappleCake

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It's only of use for VR if it's capable of doing full resolution in realtime.

"hardware-based Ray Tracing" doesn't automatically mean it can do the job in realtime - it might just mean "faster than doing it with the general-purpose GPU / CPU hardware.
Yeah I know. Depends on how powerful Apple's RT cores are.
And in 2024/2025 Nvidia will be what multiple of their current performance, given their historical generation-over-generation improvements?
Nvidia will still be no top in terms of RAW power. Even AMD can't match Nvidia. Apple can up if they hire more competent GPU architects as their head of Hardware technologies is an engineer and not a bean counter.

If they can beat or match(or come close) to AMD at their first attempt at RT then there is chance of Apple of having a competent GPU.
 

deconstruct60

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Mar 10, 2009
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Could they just scrap any proposed "M" based Mac Pro and do a proper Intel based machine with latest generation CPUs and technology. never mind the implications for Apple Silicon marketing, just continue to keep the Mac Pro a monstrous machine, huge maximum ram, massive GPU support, etc.

A Mac Pro is a pretty specialised piece of equipment anyway - it should remain that way.

That last sentence essentially points out just why this is not economically tractable for the ecosystem. Go from 20M new Intel Macs per year down to maybe 20-50K per year. The latter isn't really viable as a complete ecosystem. Going forward most software developers in the ecosystem are going to "follow the money" ... which is Apple Silicon. Millions of new units being sold per year. A sizable number of those need new software ... hence softwrae revenue generation opportunity.

In contrast, x86 Mac Pro only likely going to attract a large number of folks hunkered down on squatting on the software they have ( The you can pry Adobe CS5 from my cold dead fingers folks).

Throw on top the tight synergies with the M-series being sold in iPads. ( another couple million units of iPad Air and iPad Pro ). And the slightly loose synergies with reset of customer Apple Silicon ( iOS and rest of iPad).

The transition started off with 100M Intel Macs deployed in use. Two years , in that number is shrinking. The Mac Pro can't refill that pool of systems faster than the Intel Macs are being retired. Inertia is going to probably deliver 3-4 years of macOS on Intel updates, but the 'friction' of systems being retired will overcome with time. There is no 'perpetual motion machine' here.

If Apple had left some other desktop Intel Mac models around in the line up to generate a 1+ M/year run rate, then maybe could eek out another generation or so. No Mini ( M2 Pro Mini finally terminated that lingering 'inertia helper'. ) , No iMac ..... means no substantive volume.


Making it a Mac Studio on steroids is not the answer. Existing 7,1 users will probably just hang on to their old machines or switch to PC.

Most 7,1 owners were going to stick to their systems no matter what for the next year or so.

The "Mac Studio on steriods" .... probably it will be substantively different enough. Maybe not up to hypermodularity standards , but it likely will cover a much larger workload territory than the Studio does just on I/O abilities.

And a decent fraction of that "or switch to PC" folks were really primarily 'x86/Windows/Nvidia " folks anyway.


5,1 users will probably swap over to 7,1 if they see them second hand at reasonable prices. The 7,1 has much more capability than the old 5,1 - especially as far as PCI slots. The 5,1 is too crowded inside especially with modern large size GPUs.

Hence, why there is really no big hurry for Apple to deliver the ultimate modular Apple Silicon Mac Pro solution. Apple can incrementally grow the performance curve for their GPUs over the next 2-4 years it will take for the 7,1 to get 'affordable'.

Though again, this viewpoint seems to no take into account what happens to the 7,1 when macOS on Intel stops getting all updates. ( There will be 2 more years of security upgrades... don't hold your breath on that being comprehensive security coverage. Those were getting lamer and lamer before the transition. )

When the 'value' of 7,1 craters into the discount bin prices the folks who are still latching onto 5,1's want to pay there is not going to be much value as a 'Mac' at that point. ( except perhaps has a stuck in a 'time capsule' system devoted to some equally stuck in time applications. ) . In 2-4 years AMD/Intel/Nvidia are going to have generation N+3 better stuff where the PCI-v3 backplane of the 7,1 is an even bigger mismatch to the PCI-e v5+ , CXL 2+ cards (and faster, denser memory ) that will exist then.


The 5,1 was propped up for years by other newer Macs getting drivers for their new GPU. That 'gravy train' is probably at an end. It isn't going to be a 'repeat' of the 5,1 aging process at all. Ditto for the firmware hacks that pushed the 5,1 forward ( 7,1 doesn't do 'firmware hacks' by 3rd parties; T2 security )
 

deconstruct60

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Mar 10, 2009
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Apple recently hired some Nvidia Devs and designers. I expect M3 to be a big jump over M2 in terms of GPU.

Folks from Nvidia aren't going to bring over some magic pixie dust. Some devs left Apple also. Movement of a small handful of people between tech companies in Silicon Valley is like rush hour traffic on the 101 ... it happens all the time.

M3 probably is on TSMC N3. So it probably has a higher transistor budget. It probably won't be a micrulous jump in all GPU workloads, but there is probably some targeted accelerators in a few areas ( because have bigger budget to pack more 'stuff' into the die.)




As a side note: The M chips are good tech, it's that Apple needs to massively improve their GPUs.

Improve over an extended period of time? Yes. Some gianoromous leap in a single year? No. They don't need to (as in hard real requirement). Apple just need to show progress. Running faster than the drivers and software can follow isn't going to help them. They need a matured ecosystem, not just some huge diagrams and massive power thrown at the issue.
 

deconstruct60

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Mar 10, 2009
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I'll be honest with you...I thought Apple would be giving us at least ONE refresh...I'm still gonna hope lol.

The W6000 series came out almost two years after the Mac Pro 2019 (7,1). Definitely, two years after they first sneak peaked it.

August, 2021
(could drop the Pro Vega II )

July , 2020
( could sub for 580X without spending much more. )


March , 2022
(could drop the 580X )

Again, had Intel and Nvidia not run late ( RDNA launched several quarters late , W-6300 was over a year late ) . That could have been a early 2021 update (months before WWDC 2021 and the 1 year mark on the transition.).


Once past December , 2022 ... Apple would have done a 'refresh'. Apple dropped an update to the configuration for 3 year in a row. That was all 'drawn out' though ( pandemic played a role ). But it shouldn't instilled a notion that Apple was going to write drivers for every GPU package AMD pushed out the door in 2023 and beyond. Most of that other stuff was piggybacked on embedded placements of RDNA and RDNA2 placements inside of other Macs. Mac Pro wasn't the primary driver. Millions of other AMD GPU sales were inside of other systems were. Loose those millions and the expectations are not all that well grounded.
 
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avro707

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Dec 13, 2010
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When the 'value' of 7,1 craters into the discount bin prices the folks who are still latching onto 5,1's want to pay there is not going to be much value as a 'Mac' at that point. ( except perhaps has a stuck in a 'time capsule' system devoted to some equally stuck in time applications. ) . In 2-4 years AMD/Intel/Nvidia are going to have generation N+3 better stuff where the PCI-v3 backplane of the 7,1 is an even bigger mismatch to the PCI-e v5+ , CXL 2+ cards (and faster, denser memory ) that will exist then.


This 5,1 "folk" purchased his 5,1 at anything but bargain discount bin prices. Mine was almost but not quite a base model at AUD$6000. I still have the receipt for it. Back at the time that was a lot of money when a regular Mac was a lot cheaper.

The 7,1 here runs all 2023 Adobe apps. CS5 went a very, very long time ago.

I'm not against the M chips, just that I'd be locked into Mac only then have to get another machine to do Windows.

I have MacOS on one drive, Windows on a fast NVME drive, and multiple other drives and it's simple to move things between each one. And Windows runs very, very well on this machine.

Never mind, I can take my money elsewhere next time.
 
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deconstruct60

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The competition: https://www.hp.com/us-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

Up to 56 cores
2tb ram
Hot swap ssds
Up to 4 rtx a6000


If take a look back in the archives in the 2008-2010 era there was much the same talk. The Mac Pro sat in a spot between that era's equivalent of the z6 and z8. It wasn't as slot and DIMM 'heavy' as a the highest end HP/Dell workstation. And was not as constrained as the z6 (and Dell ) equivalent. Hot swap and/or easy power supply was a 'must have' feature then by some too. And yet Apple shipped the MP 2012. ( and 2019 with no dual socket version. The z8 'fury' is just the dual socket with just one socket. So even HP is on slower path on that trendline. )

Apple isn't going to make a box that pulls 2500W from the wall. It is just beyond a regular USA building code household current power draw for an average socket. So any new Mac Pro probably isn't really competing with that.

That z8 tower infrastructure almost completely falls out of the rack sever products that HP makes around the same CPU package with a different Intel product label on it. In fact, there is a z8 with Xeon SP packages in it (the non 'Fury' models).

Apple isn't in the rack sever business. So it is pretty likely they view that as a 'not necessary to compete' zone. Same thing here.

Some aspects they'll compete with and some they won't. Can put 4 RTX a6000 in there but will have toasted about half of the other standard slots in the process. The MP 2019 design doesn't toss the single slots down the drain just to get 4 GPU packages in the box. Apple just does some things a different way. If looking for maximum number of large Nvidia cards inside the system.... that is not a design objective. Neither now or back in 2009-2010.
 
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ZombiePhysicist

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Apple was also going to release a car, and had a huge staff, and massive research budgets, and Gurman etc had renderings of what it was expected to look like based on rumours... and no car.

I for one do not believe Apple can design, or fabricate an M-series GPU powerful enough to drive a "pro", let alone an "enthusiast" VR headset that would be competitive on price, or competitive on performance with the offerings already in today's market. I also don't believe the company has the culture to make a competitive 3D-based product.

Especially given the number of high end headsets which literally only work when plugged into an Nvidia GPU - even if Apple sticks with AMD for the next Mac Pro, I don't believe AMD has a GPU that's price, or performance competitive for VR with Nvidia.

This is a really interesting observation. One I disagree with but may be key. I DO think apple will make a game changer headset, but that does beg a new chip with some hyper gpu abilities. Maybe that could also be incorporated into a pro level Mac Pro type chip?
 
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PineappleCake

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Kuo mentions "
  1. The slowdown of processor upgrades is unfavorable to the sales of end products (such as A16 and M2 series chips). Therefore, to ensure that the world’s most advanced 3nm processors can enter mass production smoothly in 2023–2025, and the performance upgrade and power consumption improvement can significantly improve vs. predecessors, Apple has devoted most of its IC design resources to the development of processors. Insufficient development resources have delayed the mass production of Apple’s own 5G baseband chip, not to mention the Wi-Fi chip with lower strategic value. In other words, Apple’s own Wi-Fi chip development visibility is even lower than its own 5G baseband chip."

This bit of info from Kuo suggests that Apple is putting more resources into 3nm products because A16 and M2 were meh.
 
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prefuse07

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Kuo mentions "
  1. The slowdown of processor upgrades is unfavorable to the sales of end products (such as A16 and M2 series chips). Therefore, to ensure that the world’s most advanced 3nm processors can enter mass production smoothly in 2023–2025, and the performance upgrade and power consumption improvement can significantly improve vs. predecessors, Apple has devoted most of its IC design resources to the development of processors. Insufficient development resources have delayed the mass production of Apple’s own 5G baseband chip, not to mention the Wi-Fi chip with lower strategic value. In other words, Apple’s own Wi-Fi chip development visibility is even lower than its own 5G baseband chip."

This bit of info from Kuo suggests that Apple is putting more resources into 3nm products because A16 and M2 were meh.

Further to your point:
 
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mattspace

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This is a really interesting observation. One I disagree with but may be key. I DO think apple will make a game changer headset, but that does beg a new chip with some hyper gpu abilities. Maybe that could also be incorporated into a pro level Mac Pro type chip?

If they make it, it'll be a Thunderbolt device, and you'll pay USD$300-600 for an optical fibre & power cable to get a usable-length tethered experience.

I bought an AUD$200 I7 PC from one of the local games studios here recently, and I suspect if I were to throw an AUD$3500 RTX4090 into it, it would be a better VR machine than anything you can buy from Apple at any price, using an AS GPU.
 

MisterAndrew

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Based on the rumors and what we know I think it’s possible the 8,1 may be an Intel refresh.
-March coincides with the new Sapphire Rapids Xeons.
-An AS Mac Pro design with GPU expansion is still in the works. Recent patents show it is still a work-in-progress and they don’t have a high-end chip yet.

However, I think it’s possible there could be a lower-end AS Mac Pro with limited expansion to replace the Studio for this year.
 

Apple Knowledge Navigator

macrumors 68040
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I blame apple more than Intel. Despite horrendous delays for each release they picked the worst point humanly possible in which to release a Mac Pro. The 7,1 is the latest example. No pci4. Later processors way better. It’s like try to pick the worst point possible.
Completely agree - they (Apple) have effectively put themselves into a corner once again.

They should have been more open and realistic about how the transition would be completed with the Mac Pro, perhaps stating that it would take “a little longer” to move the Mac Pro over to AS and that there would still be Intel releases yet to come for this product line specifically.

Of course the danger with this approach is that had Apple refreshed the Mac Pro earlier, the specs would be so far beyond the realm of AS that it would, realistically, take years for Apple to catch up. That’s no exaggeration given that the 1.5TB RAM capacity and dual 6800 Duo performance of the current model is already seemingly hard to catch up with.

In my opinion Apple has to go custom with the AS Mac Pro. It will cost and arm and a leg, but if we’re being honest the machine has become more of a point of aspiration for Apple than a revenue driver.
 

PineappleCake

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Yeah Apple is likely focusing it's efforts on CPUs and GPUs like Kuo said and putting wifi/Modem on back burner and thus cut excess wafers
If they make it, it'll be a Thunderbolt device, and you'll pay USD$300-600 for an optical fibre & power cable to get a usable-length tethered experience.

I bought an AUD$200 I7 PC from one of the local games studios here recently, and I suspect if I were to throw an AUD$3500 RTX4090 into it, it would be a better VR machine than anything you can buy from Apple at any price, using an AS GPU.
Isn't it reported that Apple's headset will be wireless and standalone?

It will come with M2 chip and it be in the product category of the current Meta Quest Pro 2 headset a standalone headset but it will be much better tech wise and quality wise than the questwise. The Quest pro includes a weak SoC. Anyway the first gen headset will be the one to skip, like with Apple's 1st gen products the 2nd or 3rd gen is always better with the 4th/5th gen being fully refined for most people.

I believe Apple is not going for a wired headset and so it won't come close to an RTX 4090 connected VR headset.
 

mattspace

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Isn't it reported that Apple's headset will be wireless and standalone?

Then it isn't going to be a pro product. No on-device GPU is going to have the oomph to match it with a tethered headset.

Look at the Vive XR Elite - that's probably the closest thing to what Apple is rumoured to be making (and personally I wouldn't be surprised if it is the actual product the "Apple" rumours were based upon).

The standalone headset is a toy experience, you tether (even wirelessly) for Pro work.


It will come with M2 chip and it be in the product category of the current Meta Quest Pro 2 headset a standalone headset but it will be much better tech wise and quality wise than the questwise. The Quest pro includes a weak SoC. Anyway the first gen headset will be the one to skip, like with Apple's 1st gen products the 2nd or 3rd gen is always better with the 4th/5th gen being fully refined for most people.

Standalone headsets are the same sort of drawer-stuffers that Android tablets were criticised for being - a bit of novelty, but forgotten when its realised you can't actually do anything of note with them.

A standalone headset is, and frankly always will be a content consumption device, not a "pro" device (except perhaps for embedded video passthrough AR systems, like augmented welding helmets etc, where the headset is only adding very rudimentary overlay graphics). Desktop GPUs will always see the ambition of content makers expand to fill the hardware's capacity. You'll build in a tethered headset, and deploy dumbed-down to standalone. Just like programming for iOS devices is done on a Mac (or on Windows, in the case of Games).

I believe Apple is not going for a wired headset and so it won't come close to an RTX 4090 connected VR headset.

Which makes the whole "pro" rumour all the more ridiculous.
 

Apple Knowledge Navigator

macrumors 68040
Mar 28, 2010
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Makes sense. AS SoC with the usual graphics configuration (M2 Max or Ultra), with the option to switch to PCIe graphics. What I like about this idea is that you could potentially configure the machine to either CPU or GPU focused tasks; for instance one may purchase a Max variant but ultimately use a high-end AMD GPU if that suited their workflow.
 

bax2003

Cancelled
Dec 25, 2011
947
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Eventually I've got myself 2nd hand HP Z840 Workstation witch 28 cores / 56 Threads, 256 GB of RAM, superfast NVMe and utlimately I can change to whatever GPU I need, add cards, controllers, drives and so on.

My workstation is used for Adobe video suite and virtualization and I do not want to solve complex equations every time I need to upgrade it.

I'm fed of Apple experimenting and changing the architecture and form factor every few years.

In 2006 you could buy entry model of MP for $2000 and now you need $6000 and it will get even more expensive.

The golden age (2006-2010) of serious Apple Mac Pro workstation is gone. During that period Apple sort of followed the market and technology along, updating their Pro Workstation almost every year, and now with much much more money they are just toying with the "Pro" idea. 2019 model was too late and too expensive, and now its not even certain that we will be able to upgrade the RAM in next generation.......Goodbye Mac Pro !
 
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ZombiePhysicist

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Eventually I've got myself 2nd hand HP Z840 Workstation witch 28 cores / 56 Threads, 256 GB of RAM, superfast NVMe and utlimately I can change to whatever GPU I need, add cards, controllers, drives and so on.

My workstation is used for Adobe video suite and virtualization and I do not want to solve complex equations every time I need to upgrade it.

I'm fed of Apple experimenting and changing the architecture and form factor every few years.

In 2006 you could buy entry model of MP for $2000 and now you need $6000 and it will get even more expensive.

The golden age (2006-2010) of serious Apple Mac Pro workstation is gone. During that period Apple sort of followed the market and technology along, updating their Pro Workstation almost every year, and now with much much more money they are just toying with the "Pro" idea. 2019 model was too late and too expensive, and now its not even certain that we will be able to upgrade the RAM in next generation.......Goodbye Mac Pro !

How are you getting along with windows? Are you seeing a future where you dump apple all together?

For example, while I work I use messages a lot. If I can’t use it on my desktop, I’ll get annoyed and dump it on my phone too because I want unified messaging. Once I do that, as much as I hate android, not sure I need the iPhone anymore… It will unravel fast for me. and likely my family and extended friends would follow suit.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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of course, but they can bring their experience. All I am saying is that Apple increased GPU arch hiring over the past year.

Increased hiring doesn't necessarily mean increased headcount. If 3 people left and 3 people got hired there likely isn't a net increases in experience. In fact, could have backslided because the internal architectures are substantively different and the new folks have to learn the basic presumptions of the new architecture. A couple of people from Nvidia aren't going to come in and Apple throws TBDR rending out the window. It is going to be the other way around ( Nvidia basic assumptions get dropped. )
 
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