Another interesting point for the 2019 Mac Pro - regardless of what happens to the AS version, how far into the future will Apple provide MPX GPU upgrades?
So far they've been pretty good about it, albeit understandably a few months behind the PC versions. When The next gen AMD GPUs come out, should we still expect support even if an AS Mac Pro is already announced or coming out?
Long term ( i.e, > 3 years from now) probably not.
Depends upon two factors. First, When (or if) did Apple plan for a full tower Mac Pro upgrade. Second, how much of change AMD does with RDNA 3 .
First factor: if in 2019 they planned to do a mid-to-late 2021 W-3300 update then these Navi21 updates were probably planned for that upgrade and got released to fill the gap. That isn't really "pretty good about it". More so got lucky. if a W-3300 powered update drops in 2-5 months that's where the updates came from ( i.e., another Mac. ). Since there isn't likely a W-3400 on the drawing board there would be no new Mac driving an MPX update in post 2022 world.
Back in mid 2019 - early 2020 W-3300 was suppose to ship around Q2 2021. That didn't work out for high volume shipments for a variety of reason both outside and inside Intel. Doubtful that Apple would have tried to couple a 2021 Mac Pro to 2022 RDNA 3 cards.
If Apple no plan for a 2021 Mac Pro , but just used the "big navi" cards to kick the can of doing anything into 2023, then that also really isn't a good sign. They would primarily be just "stop gap" cards. Reading into that the notion that Apple has found super duper GPU card modularity religion is probably bad expectation setting.
Second Factor. AMD and "RDNA3".
There is a rumbling that "Navi33 = Navi 21 + "new core ip" ". Pretty good chance that may mean that the 7600-7700 could be a Navi 21 put on a process shrink to TMSC N6 or N5. That there isn't a big architecture API change and that the AMD primary focus is to make the die smaller ( and hence cheaper) and lower power consuming.
[ I wouldn't count on Apple passing along any of that cost savings though. The prices would probably stay same while Apple takes higher mark up on lower volume. ]. Basically, Navi33 may pragmatically be RDNA2.
if that is the case then could get a card update in the future because could get very minimal driver work updates to a new chip. That would actually be helpful for the MPX 6800 Duo. If the base GPU chips didn't run as high power consuming it would be easier to run a pair of them on a single card at incrementally higher (actually 'normal' ) clock speeds. It wouldn't be a huge spike in performance but a new card in 2023 or so.
Lower power Navi33 might also means get an effective full die "6900" worth Duo card also. That would be a performance jump window that isn't offered now. Could Apple limp along with those in a Mac Pro 2019 offering into 2024 ... sure.
If RDNA as a whole was mostly Performance/watt optimization with 97+ % of the driver API exactly the same then also might get some other updates. Again because the driver updates were practically "free". If the changes in API are mainly about factors that Metal won't cover then the missing 3% wouldn't impact the drivers anyway. ( e.g. Metal ignores : media decoders assist improvements , Smart Access Memory (resizable bar) improvements, better FSR super resolution hooks into hardware, etc. ) the drivers could largely be exactly the same after some GPUID updates.
If Navi31 has a 30-50+ new API and new low level compilers and back end optimizations tools then probably not. No new Metal stuff to track that and no drivers. And if RNDA3 doesn't drive a big enough semantic gap between the driver/tools levels and Metal then RDNA4 probably will.
The other tension is going to be Apple going from buying close to 1M AMD GPUs per year to an amount one or two orders of magnitude lower. ( MBP 16" , Retina iMac 21 and 27 and iMac Pro all gone.) Either AMD will have to start to charge Apple more money to support a diminished product flow (at which point Apple would likely go Scrooge McDuck and quit) or AMD just quits to pursue much higher prospect opportunities ( especially if GPU average selling prices remain higher over the long term ... which looks like they will ).
Unless Apple uncorks drivers to the M1 macs the market is only going to shrink over time. Valuable AMD resources spent on an ever shrinking pot doesn't make much sense for AMD to apply substantive resources to.
If not in an MPX module, how about drivers for the PC version of the GPUs? I know we don't know these answers, but if anyone wants to take a guess at it knowing Apples track record...
Probably not. The bulk of work done on Metal for a new GPU is done by Apple. If there is no Apple product in the mix , then Apple is quite unlikely to do the work out of the goodness of zero money for Apple. If there was some indirect tie in with new M-series Macs ... ( e.g. eGPU on iMac 24" helps some sales) maybe. For a zero active development product line ( Intel Mac Pro in 2023+ ) probably not. Apple has no substantive history of doing that.
I think at least for the next gen AMD GPUs they likely should have an upgrade - since they're likely here in the next 2 years. Of course PCIE Gen 3 is a bit of a limitation on the current Mac Pro, but not entirely - should still be better performance on next gen.
Depends upon just how "next gen" AMD goes. AMD's dual-die solutions probably not. Big increase in CUs maybe.
If they do update the Intel Mac Pro next year, then definitely I think we'll also see more GPU MPX updates. If they don't, then it is anyone's guess as to what they'll do. This can be kept separate than their AS Mac Pro Line of course.
If it is early 2022 ( i.e., original plan was mid-late 2021 ) then probably doesn't make much of a difference over the long term at all. (not indicative of long term support). Intel/Pandemic just slide that system into 2022.
And I agree MPX GPUs won't be a thing in the next Mac Pro AS version - since Apple is really pushing their GPU performance. But I do agree as well that they should keep pcie slots for the plethora of other cards that take advantage of it.
Longer term Apple could come up with a GPGPU API. Or at least a way for 3rd parties to add a "computational" API of their own if Apple doesn't want Metal to get entangled in it.
Here's a thought: 2013 Mac Pro was designed into a thermal corner as said by Apple, right? So they did the opposite in the 2019 Mac Pro. What if for the next AS Mac Pro, instead of avoiding the mistakes of the 2013 Mac Pro, they want to revisit that type of framework and this time dominate it with their own silicon? They can then say, "ha! we finally got you!" instead of resigning in perpetuity with that bad design.
Thermal corner was only one of four explicitly mentioned problems.
One of those was making folks buy something they don't necessarily want. Apple silicon couples RAM capacity to CPU and GPU core count. If want a substantively bigger GPU then have to buy more RAM (and CPU cores if larger enough increase ). That is a deeper coupling than the MP 2013 had. Not "dominating" that at all; it is a deeper "value proposition" hole.
They'll sell more to folks with large price elasticity (and who pragmatically spend other peoples money) . But overall volume of sales will likely go down.
They aren't going to do "dominate" that problem.... it will likely be more misdirection from the problem. "Look how fast in a smaller system box".
If they try to do with with just one fan that they hobble in a substantive way then will be right back in that thermal corner problem space again too. This Jade4C chiplet/tile SoC could run up in the 320+ W range. if they go "too cute" on the enclosure they can easily mess that up.