MacBook Pro 16" in WWDC?

[Significant1]

Well I was referring to a claim that there could be no new Macs due to no "free capacity" at TMSC.
Given that Apple has these special deals with TMSC and Tim Cooks supply chain experience I'm rather sure they have similar deals for other essential parts (screens, batteries etc).

Tim Cooks cannot plan his way out of a pandemic causing factories to shutdown and resulting in material supply shortage for the whole industry. As stated in my link, they have been running down their buffers in Q2 and their priority is iPhone since it is Apple's bread and butter.

So question is, will they push through the new Mac models according to plan, if they cannot produce them in quantities to meet demand ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Bug-Creator]

Tim Cooks cannot plan his way out of a pandemic causing factories to shutdown and resulting in material supply shortage for the whole industry.

Most of these shutdowns were in 2020 and the problem we have now (and in the 2nd halft of 2021) aren't a direct result of those. Demand is just that much higher (and might have been almost as high even without the pandemic) with supply not increasing any time soon.

In the end it might be a case of going from 90% capacity to 110% capacity that will cause these issues which are then multiplied by self-fulfilling prophecies (doubt anybody would have noticed that pipeline being shutdown if noone had reported on it in the 1st place).

-> sales numbers will be great, about as good as 2019 but not as good as they could.

Maestri told investors on the conference call that the constraints could cost the company somewhere to the tune of $3 billion to $4 billion in revenue for the fiscal third quarter. Despite this, Maestri said that Apple predicts revenue for the quarter to grow by “strong double digits” year-over-year. “We wish we had more inventory of iPad and Mac,” Maestri added.

Which is just that.



Aunt Edith:

Just checked for the new iMacs and iPads and everything is scheduled for early June to early July which suggest that anything I'd order today is either already on the Indian Ocean or will be assembled within the next few weeks.
See no reason why that would change with new MacBookPros which won't have that massive sales volume.

 

[Significant1]

Most of these shutdowns were in 2020 and the problem we have now (and in the 2nd halft of 2021) aren't a direct result of those. Demand is just that much higher (and might have been almost as high even without the pandemic) with supply not increasing any time soon.

In the end it might be a case of going from 90% capacity to 110% capacity that will cause these issues which are then multiplied by self-fulfilling prophecies (doubt anybody would have noticed that pipeline being shutdown if noone had reported on it in the 1st place).

-> sales numbers will be great, about as good as 2019 but not as good as they could.


Which is just that.



Aunt Edith:

Just checked for the new iMacs and iPads and everything is scheduled for early June to early July which suggest that anything I'd order today is either already on the Indian Ocean or will be assembled within the next few weeks.
See no reason why that would change with new MacBookPros which won't have that massive sales volume.

You seem to know better than what Apple, Samsung, Foxconn, car manufacturers are doing, telling and predicting about chip shortages. Time will tell how Apple manage. I lost patience and pulled the trigger in Marts on a MBA m1 16GB/1TB, since I could not wait till after summer and sofar it fits my need, so I am not in the market for a new machine in the short term.

 

[Fthree]

I might not upgrade anything but my Apple Watch this year, but a newly designed M1-based 16" MBP would sure get my mouth watering.

I agree on this point but the big thing for me would be price. If the current 13 M1 is running (for the most part) side by side with a $4000 16 inch I may just stick to the 13 m1 for maybe half the price.

 

[spiderman0616]

I agree on this point but the big thing for me would be price. If the current 13 M1 is running (for the most part) side by side with a $4000 16 inch I may just stick to the 13 m1 for maybe half the price.

Exactly. I’m currently super pleased with my M1 MBA, so it would be a tough sell. But I know I would think about it.

 

[Lemon Olive]

There is a global pandemic and TMSC has no capacity at the moment.

Both Sony and Microsoft (who rely also on TMSC) have already said that Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 will not be available for the entire year.

So there is no chance the 14” and 16” MBP will be released in Q2 2021.

If Apple somehow will release the 14” and 16” MBP in Q3 2021, I will predict it will be super hard to come (Just like the current situation with the iPad Pro)

It will be, just like the products released this month. Derp.

Going into Q3, lead times will be longer than usual. That's about it.

 

[UltimateSyn]

I'm expecting it. Gurman said they would release "around the middle of the year." Chips supposedly destined for the MBP went into production in April. Prosser hinted that he's expecting a 16" MBP "soon" in his latest podcast. We're missing model identifiers in the code and dwindling supply of current models, but that could start showing up in a few weeks. I think they'll be announced at WWDC and ship sometime around mid-July.

 

[leman]

There is a global pandemic and TMSC has no capacity at the moment.

Both Sony and Microsoft (who rely also on TMSC) have already said that Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 will not be available for the entire year.

Apple however is not interested in the nodes that others are using, and also, Apple has reportedly booked out the entire capacity of TSMC's more advanced nodes (5nm and lower) for years in advance. So we really don't know how all the shortages affect them.

 

[UltimateSyn]

Keep in mind these are mini LED displays as well. We would have received a heads up from multiple suppliers if it were any time in the next couple months.

We got that: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...d-macbook-pro-models-later-this-year.2294638/

 

[petvas]

We are all speculating here, but I believe that the chances that Apple will show us new hardware at WWDC is 0%. I think that new Macs will come around November.

 

[JPack]

We got that: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...d-macbook-pro-models-later-this-year.2294638/

Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology (TSMT) will trial surface mounting of miniLED chips, ICs and other components on PCBs for use in backlighting of two MacBook models to be launched in second-half 2021, according to industry sources.

 

[ExclusiveMac]

What do you think, will have the 14" and 16" Mini Led?

 

[JPack]

What do you think, will have the 14" and 16" Mini Led?

That's a given.

 

[UltimateSyn]

Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology (TSMT) will trial surface mounting of miniLED chips, ICs and other components on PCBs for use in backlighting of two MacBook models to be launched in second-half 2021, according to industry sources.

It turns out July is in the second half of 2021.

 

[Hexley]

It's very possible. My late 2019 MBP 16" is more than a year's old already.

I'd guess it will have two M1 chips as a M1x variant wouldn't have the economies of scale to make.

 

[JPack]

It turns out July is in the second half of 2021.

WWDC isn't.

The operative word is launch. Everything single source says launching 2H'21.

 

[subjonas]

WWDC isn't.

The operative word is launch. Everything single source says launching 2H'21.

I’ve always been confused by the term “launch” because there seems to be three different things it could mean: announcement, order (or preorder), and shipping/available in store—and they could all be at totally separate times, many weeks apart even.

 

[UltimateSyn]

WWDC isn't.

The operative word is launch. Everything single source says launching 2H'21.

Okay. You can announce something at one point in time and have it launch at another. Would you say the new iPad Pros were launched back in April or would you say they are launching next week?

 

[JPack]

I’ve always been confused by the term “launch” because there seems to be three different things it could mean: announcement, order (or preorder), and shipping/available in store—and they could all be at totally separate times, many weeks apart even.

Many times, it will depend on the source and how precise their knowledge is. Launch, shipping, mass production, etc.

In this case, Digitimes said on May 3, TSMT to trial surface mounting for Macbook-use miniLED backlights. If we use some common sense, would a product launching in June or July still be under trials? Historically, trial production takes at least one calendar quarter before beginning mass production.

 

[sublunar]

Doesn't it depend on whether or not they are using the A14 generation CPUs - ie M1X - or if they'll be reserving the A15 generation CPUs coming up in the iPhones instead? In which case we could be talking about M2 CPUs announcing in October and shipping in November (for example)?

The M2 would be a generation ahead of the M1 with as many cores as needed rather than a boosted M1 with more cores.

If it is to be M1X then Apple really need to do a product launch as soon as possible before the real M2 comes out and the cycle begins again. This makes WWDC a good excuse to announce the new form factors for a 14"/16" MacBook Pro and a 30" iMac (plus the M1X Mac mini).

But adopting the annual release schedule of the iPhone CPU sounds like a punishing schedule for Macs. Would it be ludicrous to see M2 high end products launching in October and shipping in November much like the M1 products did late last year with Apple being able to dedicate more time to getting them right?

 

[JPack]

Okay. You can announce something at one point in time and have it launch at another. Would you say the new iPad Pros were launched back in April or would you say they are launching next week?

I would say iPad Pro launched in April and is shipping in May.

If the new MacBooks were being launched and shipped in the next couple months, Digitimes or someone would have reported firm dates by now, i.e. Q3, and not a vague "2H'21."

 

[subjonas]

Many times, it will depend on the source and how precise their knowledge is. Launch, shipping, mass production, etc.

So there is no one precise meaning of “launch”? People use it differently in different situations or it’s sort of meant to be used vaguely when they don’t have precise enough information? Confusing. I wish people would either use it consistently or just say “announce”, “preorder”, or “shipping/available in store”. If it were up to me, I’d choose launch to mean “shipping/available in store”.

 

[richinaus]

here is what I think :

WWDC announcement
August / September ‘launch’

I dont believe they can wait longer given the new 11th Gen Intel H launch, RTX and AMD current positions.
The macbook pros just dont stack up against those computers currently [M1 is great but still a ultrabook CPU/GPU and perfect for the air and base level computers].

 

[quarkysg]

here is what I think :

WWDC announcement
August / September ‘launch’

I dont believe they can wait longer given the new 11th Gen Intel H launch, RTX and AMD current positions.
The macbook pros just dont stack up against those computers currently [M1 is great but still a ultrabook CPU/GPU and perfect for the air and base level computers].

I don’t think Apple cares about what Intel, AMD or Nvidia released at this point. They probably have their own performance and schedule target to hit and that’ll be it.

 

[cardfan]

here is what I think :

WWDC announcement
August / September ‘launch’

I dont believe they can wait longer given the new 11th Gen Intel H launch, RTX and AMD current positions.
The macbook pros just dont stack up against those computers currently [M1 is great but still a ultrabook CPU/GPU and perfect for the air and base level computers].

Wwdc is software. Doubt we see a thing about mac hardware.