Further experiments. I made a bootable flash drive with the Monterey installer on and booted from that. The installer ran for about 15 mins, then rebooted into a macOS installer assistant mode which displayed this error saying it could not install a firmware update:I watched this more carefully. After finishing the install run, it reboots with the startup volume set to a volume I've not seen before called "PreBoot". That boots, shows the Apple logo and a progress bar, which gets about 1/3 of the way across before rebooting again, with the startup volume set to my normal boot volume.
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I had several attempts at booting repeatedly from the PreBoot volume, but it always acted the same way, and so I'm still stuck on 11.6. FWIW, I'm booting from a PCIe NVME card with OC installed on a separate SATA SSD. My upgrades from 11.2.3 to 11.3, and on to 11.6 all worked fine previously.
Any bright ideas?
After that the progress bar stopped moving. I went through this twice with the same results. So I’m still stuck in 11.6!