NAB 2012 and the Mac Pro

[Neodym]

I see a few problems that do not have easy solutions, even in 5 years:

1) Thunderbolt is kinda bulky. [...] if you add thunderbolt to an iPad, its going to get substantially bigger.

How do you figure? On my MBA the TB connector is about 60% the size of the USB connector. And regarding the package size - Intel just shrunk it by about 1/3 from Light Ridge to Cactus Ridge. I'm very optimistic there is more potential in it over the next 5 years...

So, do we see an iPad Pro, that is a little bigger but has some of this functionality? And how expensive will that be?

The current iPad tops out at $829 - the current MacPro starts at $2499. Lots of room there if you want to place an iPad Pro intended to at least complement the Pro line of products...

3) Cloud storage is expensive and slow. [...] Our national bandwidth can't handle much more.

Besides the fact that Apple does operate worldwide and thus the global bandwith situation is much more interesting than any national tidbit - yes, cloud storage is currently in its infancy. So was USB when Apple replaced all the legacy ports on its first iMacs by that new technology. If demand is there i'm sure the available bandwith/speeds will increase and relative costs will come down.

And if that won't happen fast enough (which more probably than not will be the case) Apple may realize that and think of something to bridge the time with other approaches, e.g. home/local clouds based on dedicated hardware. Think NAS/Time Capsule, only bigger and faster, suited even for pro use.

You might say tablet will drop in price, but certainly a PC with greater performance will always be substantially cheaper.

A very bold statement! Apart from the "economies of scale" factor we are already facing a paradigm shift, where high performance is reached with lots of small, cheap and (individually) weak computing units rather than a few calculation beasts. (Not only) CPU frequencies have reached a wall, so development moved towards multicore/multithreading already.

Now put a bigger number of those cheap computing units together accordingly (think multicore - just on a [way] bigger scale) and suddenly you may have a system with more power for less money than a full-blown MacPro!

Apple already started to collect experience in that direction (e.g. xgrid, Grand Central, ARM chips for Mac computers in R&D etc.).

 

[goMac]

And if that won't happen fast enough (which more probably than not will be the case) Apple may realize that and think of something to bridge the time with other approaches, e.g. home/local clouds based on dedicated hardware. Think NAS/Time Capsule, only bigger and faster, suited even for pro use.

This.

No one is talking about Pros not needing as much power. What is being said is that same power will be accessible on an iPad, with the advantage that your iPad or even (let's say something exciting here) your iPhone goes everywhere with you throughout the day. Like an ultra cool portable home folder with all your apps.

And software wise, iOS will advance to accommodate pro apps. I'm guessing we'll see the start of this as OS X adopting all the iOS APIs, and starting to get rid of the Mac APIs.

 

[TennisandMusic]

This.

No one is talking about Pros not needing as much power. What is being said is that same power will be accessible on an iPad, with the advantage that your iPad or even (let's say something exciting here) your iPhone goes everywhere with you throughout the day. Like an ultra cool portable home folder with all your apps.

And software wise, iOS will advance to accommodate pro apps. I'm guessing we'll see the start of this as OS X adopting all the iOS APIs, and starting to get rid of the Mac APIs.

Do you honestly think that the iPad form factor will ever offer power anywhere similar to a larger "real" computer setup? Sure, in five years the iPad will be more powerful than it is now, and it will still be nowhere close to the power of a tower or all in one, even compared to current models.

This is pie in the sky thinking. The idea of iOS maturing to be more "OS X like" is pretty funny. Why would they spend years and years to get to where they are now? I would in fact surmise that arguing this point shows you don't really understand how iOS and OS X actually work.

The idea that everything will be a tablet in any near time frame is not realistic, at all.

 

[Neodym]

Do you honestly think that the iPad form factor will ever offer power anywhere similar to a larger "real" computer setup?

Think bigger! The power does not necessarily need to be completely _inside_ the box - instead the iPad could be some kind of intelligent terminal that can add external resources (storage/computing) on demand if its own power is not sufficient for the current task.

 

[wallysb01]

goMac, I don't report people almost ever, but you post previous the one I quote below I reported. You're getting to be extremely condescending and disrespectful, even lovingly referring to me as stupid. You tried to do it in a half joking "its the economy, stupid" kind of way, but given the context, it could not be taken as light hearted. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to respond with equal condescension, but it appears the mods would like to avoid that, so I will honor it. However, I'm going to give this discussion a chance to move on, and reply only to this post. I'll let you and potentially the mods determine how the rest of this conversation will go. If you can continue to hold a discussion with which someone you disagree with, without resulting to such disrespectful behavior, I'm happy to continue. If not, I'll report it again, and be done.

Anyway, moving on...

The distinction is that pros (rightfully) are not ready to abandon the PC yet.

Average users? Who check email, surf the web, and post to Facebook? Most definitely they are abandoning the PC. Why should they buy a PC over a tablet? Tablet has a touch screen, less issues, and they can take it anywhere with them.

Heck, what do you think the average user would rather do an OS upgrade on? A PC or an iPad? For the PC, I'd say the average user wants to have to deal with the OS upgrade process "never".

The problem is that I doubt "most users" only do email/web/facebook. It might make up 90%+ of their home computing usage, but they still do enough things that a tablet is not yet ready to do, that the tablet can not be an all out replacement of the PC. Like I said above. It might make users more likely push PC purchases further into the future, but I don't see a slow down in PC sales yet, do you? And I mean empirical data here.

 

[goMac]

Do you honestly think that the iPad form factor will ever offer power anywhere similar to a larger "real" computer setup? Sure, in five years the iPad will be more powerful than it is now, and it will still be nowhere close to the power of a tower or all in one, even compared to current models.

This is pie in the sky thinking. The idea of iOS maturing to be more "OS X like" is pretty funny. Why would they spend years and years to get to where they are now? I would in fact surmise that arguing this point shows you don't really understand how iOS and OS X actually work.

The idea that everything will be a tablet in any near time frame is not realistic, at all.

No different than how a rendering farm works at Pixar or any other company. Except you'll have a little one at your desk or office.

I mean, it's not pie in the sky, it's done today. Just not on the same scale.

goMac, I don't report people almost ever, but you post previous the one I quote below I reported. You're getting to be extremely condescending and disrespectful, even lovingly referring to me as stupid. You tried to do it in a half joking "its the economy, stupid" kind of way, but given the context, it could not be taken as light hearted. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to respond with equal condescension, but it appears the mods would like to avoid that, so I will honor it. However, I'm going to give this discussion a chance to move on, and reply only to this post. I'll let you and potentially the mods determine how the rest of this conversation will go. If you can continue to hold a discussion with which someone you disagree with, without resulting to such disrespectful behavior, I'm happy to continue. If not, I'll report it again, and be done.

I say something and you reply right past me. If I don't get the feeling there is an actual conversation, I'm not going to reply seriously. I mean, the conversation so far has been "What about storage?" "Thunderbolt." "Yeah but the iPad only comes with 64 gigs!"

Or $1000 for a few TB of hard drive space in five years. That sort of thing doesn't make me take you seriously.

The problem is that I doubt "most users" only do email/web/facebook. It might make up 90%+ of their home computing usage, but they still do enough things that a tablet is not yet ready to do, that the tablet can not be an all out replacement of the PC. Like I said above. It might make users more likely push PC purchases further into the future, but I don't see a slow down in PC sales yet, do you? And I mean empirical data here.

PC sales are slowing (Macs are not.) Tablet sales are skyrocketing.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/2011/09/15/pc-sales-slow-while-tablet-sales-skyrocket-firm-says/

PC sales are still growing year over year, but the rate at which they are growing is declining. Usually the first sign (as you yourself pointing out) that the market is about to drop.

 

[TennisandMusic]

Think bigger! The power does not necessarily need to be completely _inside_ the box - instead the iPad could be some kind of intelligent terminal that can add external resources (storage/computing) on demand if its own power is not sufficient for the current task.

Of course, dumb terminals are not a new idea in the slightest. The problem is that doing productive work is still the MOST important thing done with computers these days, and this kind of work requires more than a 10 inch screen, and far more power than an iPad provides. The idea of an iPad hooked up to a bigger monitor and drawing from some kind of powerful backend is simply convoluted, and people wouldn't go for it. And the infrastructure needed to make this a reality nation/world wide is just not there.

I think people are forgetting how cheap relatively powerful computing is these days. The iPad solves some problems for some users, but in terms of it's usefulness for the the actual productive members of society, it's virtually nil. The PC industry still dwarfs the tablet market.

And yes I have an iPad.

----------

No different than how a rendering farm works at Pixar or any other company. Except you'll have a little one at your desk or office.

I mean, it's not pie in the sky, it's done today. Just not on the same scale.

Thinking we will be having ubiquitous "cloud computing" back ends for iPads IS pie in the sky. And why would I want to work on a 10 inch screen?

The iPad isn't going to destroy serious computing or replace it. At least not in the next decade.

 

[wallysb01]

How do you figure? On my MBA the TB connector is about 60% the size of the USB connector. And regarding the package size - Intel just shrunk it by about 1/3 from Light Ridge to Cactus Ridge. I'm very optimistic there is more potential in it over the next 5 years...

So where do you put those 12x12 mm? Also the hight the iPad is only about 9mm thick, so what happens to the rough 6mm the connection port itself. If TB goes it, something gotta give. They already made it a little thinker with the iPad3 to accommodate some changes...

[/QUOTE]
The current iPad tops out at $829 - the current MacPro starts at $2499. Lots of room there if you want to place an iPad Pro intended to at least complement the Pro line of products...
[/QUOTE]

I don't think their is any price competition going on with the Mac Pro. So, I'm not sure what one has to do with another here.

Besides the fact that Apple does operate worldwide and thus the global bandwith situation is much more interesting than any national tidbit - yes, cloud storage is currently in its infancy. So was USB when Apple replaced all the legacy ports on its first iMacs by that new technology. If demand is there i'm sure the available bandwith/speeds will increase and relative costs will come down.

Certainly some changes will occur, but there are physical limitations as well as monetary ones. Upgrading the infrastructure required for massive amount of cloud storage is going to be very difficult.

And if that won't happen fast enough (which more probably than not will be the case) Apple may realize that and think of something to bridge the time with other approaches, e.g. home/local clouds based on dedicated hardware. Think NAS/Time Capsule, only bigger and faster, suited even for pro use.

That I think is the next step. Home data servers will become more popular to serve data to iPads/iPhones even MacBooks. But, for many, that will mean PCs doing it.

A very bold statement! Apart from the "economies of scale" factor we are already facing a paradigm shift, where high performance is reached with lots of small, cheap and (individually) weak computing units rather than a few calculation beasts. (Not only) CPU frequencies have reached a wall, so development moved towards multicore/multithreading already.

Now put a bigger number of those cheap computing units together accordingly (think multicore - just on a [way] bigger scale) and suddenly you may have a system with more power for less money than a full-blown MacPro!

Apple already started to collect experience in that direction (e.g. xgrid, Grand Central, ARM chips for Mac computers in R&D etc.).

This is all true, but at the low power levels required for a thing like the iPad, there is still a lot of improvement ahead of us. Solving the problem with multiple cores in the iPad can only help so much. Again, I think the temporary solution could be the home server. If you actually want to do intensive work on your iPad (or while interfacing with your iPad), you'll actually just be off loading it to your iMac, Mac mini or Mac Pro, then getting the finished result back to your iPad. Improvements with screen sharing could go a long way in this front. Where you are basically using your iPad as a front of a Mac Pro. All that's really needed to do that now, is just making data transfers in screen sharing easier.

 

[goMac]

Thinking we will be having ubiquitous "cloud computing" back ends for iPads IS pie in the sky. And why would I want to work on a 10 inch screen?

Again, not cloud. A box. At your desk.

And external displa... Am I just talking to myself?

That I think is the next step. Home data servers will become more popular to serve data to iPads/iPhones even MacBooks. But, for many, that will mean PCs doing it.

And that's true. It could very well be internally be a PC. But then the vendor or the software doesn't matter. It's just a faceless box.

Thus solving the "But if Apple abandons the Mac Pro how will we do big iron stuff?" problem. CPU power is just a commodity, not a platform. My Airport Extreme has a processor platform, and an operating system, but to me, it's just a utility doing a job. My Airport Extreme really is a PC inside, but I don't really care.

 

[ScouseGeek]

If anyone thinks we are in a "Post PC era" they are sorely mistaken, tablets are nice little diversions for about a week then the novelty wares off and they end up sitting in a draw getting pulled out every now an then used for half a hour then put back in the draw.

Most people like using a tablet for 5 min stints say sitting in front of the TV and using it to post a comment on facebook in the commercial break, but when they want to use it for more than 5 min they fire up the laptop or desktop.

Tablets can't pick up the strain and they wont be able to for another 10 - 20 years, they are under powered devices and lack functionality be it a physical port or applications they, people need built in for every day use are missing from the platform.

 

[TennisandMusic]

PC sales are still growing year over year, but the rate at which they are growing is declining. Usually the first sign (as you yourself pointing out) that the market is about to drop.

And yet the tablet market is still a tiny fraction of the mature computing market. Of course it could eventually catch up or overtake it, but let's say it matches the computing market. Then what? Are people still going to argue that computers are "irrelevant"? That is certainly what Apple is trying to sell to people these days, but when computer sales still absolutely smash tablets, that's a hard sell.

Computers will not stand still while tablets leap frog them. That is simply not going to happen. So at what point do PCs become not useful? Pretty much never. These devices will work together. The tablet isn't going to replace large monitors and physical inputs like keyboards and mice. And even if we have a situation where we have Windows 8 like tablets, where these peripherals can be plugged in and the tablet can become a "full pc", there will still be a strong desire for the most powerful machine and largest screen you can get. Productive people and groups don't fool around with these goofy little toys.

----------

Again, not cloud. A box. At your desk. Or on your home network.

And external displa... Am I just talking to myself? I mean, this is Thunderbolt we're talking about. And any Thunderbolt device.

Thunderbolt is slower than PCI express, and usb 3 is good enough for external storage. Why the heck would ANYONE want this setup? So you have an iPad hooked up to an external monitor AND external box? Why wouldnt you just plug this "box" you speak of (aka computer)... into the display?

The thing is none of this is a new idea. It's an obvious potential setup, but easily dismissed by just thinking it through. Thunderbolt is just another IO option, it is not some miracle port or a panacea.

Just because people see the ludicrousness of the solution does not mean people do not understand. You are not talking to yourself, it is just clear why it isn't a good idea, and certainly not practical.

----------

If anyone thinks we are in a "Post PC era" they are sorely mistaken, tablets are nice little diversions for about a week then the novelty wares off and they end up sitting in a draw getting pulled out every now an then used for half a hour then put back in the draw.

Most people like using a tablet for 5 min stints say sitting in front of the TV and using it to post a comment on facebook in the commercial break, but when they want to use it for more than 5 min they fire up the laptop or desktop.

Tablets can't pick up the strain and they wont be able to for another 10 - 20 years, they are under powered devices and lack functionality be it a physical port or applications they, people need built in for every day use are missing from the platform.

This is exactly correct.

 

[goMac]

Thunderbolt is slower than PCI express, and usb 3 is good enough for external storage. Why the heck would ANYONE want this setup? So you have an iPad hooked up to an external monitor AND external box? Why wouldnt you just plug this "box" you speak of (aka computer)... into the display?

Sigh. Didn't we just have this entire conversation?

First off, no one is talking about today. Today, the Mac Pro is still badly needed.

Five years from now, Thunderbolt will be faster.

The advantage is you can't really carry a big box with you. When you're out, you can use it as a tablet. When you're at work, you plug it into a big box, maybe the big box is a shared resource in a closet somewhere. When you're home, you just plug it into your Thunderbolt display.

Same reason many people carry a laptop, but plug it into things when they get to work or home. Again, not an earth shattering concept.

The thing is none of this is a new idea. It's an obvious potential setup, but easily dismissed by just thinking it through. Thunderbolt is just another IO option, it is not some miracle port or a panacea.

No, it's not. But it certainly seems to be Apple's direction. Look at the Thunderbolt display with all it's docking options and tell me that's not tailored nicely for an iPad.

Just because people see the ludicrousness of the solution does not mean people do not understand. You are not talking to yourself, it is just clear why it isn't a good idea, and certainly not practical.

I'd agree if you were talking about the same solution. But you're not talking about the same thing. You're making up something from what you think is being said, and then calling it ludicrous.

 

[ScouseGeek]

Sigh. Didn't we just have this entire conversation?

First off, no one is talking about today. Today, the Mac Pro is still badly needed.

Five years from now, Thunderbolt will be faster.

The advantage is you can't really carry a big box with you. When you're out, you can use it as a tablet. When you're at work, you plug it into a big box, maybe the big box is a shared resource in a closet somewhere. When you're home, you just plug it into your Thunderbolt display.

Same reason many people carry a laptop, but plug it into things when they get to work or home. Again, not an earth shattering concept.



No, it's not. But it certainly seems to be Apple's direction. Look at the Thunderbolt display with all it's docking options and tell me that's not tailored nicely for an iPad.



I'd agree if you were talking about the same solution. But you're not talking about the same thing. You're making up something from what you think is being said, and then calling it ludicrous.

That wont work, what your talking about is a tablet docking station hooked to "the cloud", and the whole idea of "The cloud" is nice and has been done since the 70's, it's not new it's not clever and it's not going to work any time soon.
Network bandwidth is a pain in the rectum cost wise for most companies, when it's over multiple sites all feeding into one data centre that cost spirals out of control and it's unreliable to boot, say the WAN link goes down how are you going to continue working if your resource is cut off.

And to bring it closer to home, how about on the LAN? most companies only have a fineinte amount of bandwidth available locally on the network, it's bad enough when desktop PC's are downloading email at the beginning of the day and updating files on the network shares the rest of the time, now if every tablet was doing this constantly at the same time it will kill of most small business networks and could heavily impact alot of bigger networks.

 

[TennisandMusic]

Sigh. Didn't we just have this entire conversation?

First off, no one is talking about today. Today, the Mac Pro is still badly needed.

Five years from now, Thunderbolt will be faster.

The advantage is you can't really carry a big box with you. When you're out, you can use it as a tablet. When you're at work, you plug it into a big box, maybe the big box is a shared resource in a closet somewhere. When you're home, you just plug it into your Thunderbolt display.

Same reason many people carry a laptop, but plug it into things when they get to work or home. Again, not an earth shattering concept.



No, it's not. But it certainly seems to be Apple's direction. Look at the Thunderbolt display with all it's docking options and tell me that's not tailored nicely for an iPad.



I'd agree if you were talking about the same solution. But you're not talking about the same thing. You're making up something from what you think is being said, and then calling it ludicrous.

Trust me man, we understand what you are saying. I just don't see it happening in the real world any time soon at all, and if that's the case we need to be more concerned with Apple seemingly trying to actively destroy serious productivity and computing, when it makes no real sense outside of Steve Jobs once personal agenda.

 

[wallysb01]

No different than how a rendering farm works at Pixar or any other company. Except you'll have a little one at your desk or office.

I mean, it's not pie in the sky, it's done today. Just not on the same scale.

1) the scale is a problem
2) the interface is a problem

I say something and you reply right past me. If I don't get the feeling there is an actual conversation, I'm not going to reply seriously. I mean, the conversation so far has been "What about storage?" "Thunderbolt." "Yeah but the iPad only comes with 64 gigs!"

Right.... Because thunderbolt has been soooo successful thus far. You mean you want me to buy this: http://compare.ebay.com/like/260998021331?var=lv&ltyp=AllFixedPriceItemTypes&var=sbar

..just so I can give up my PC. Excuse me while I laugh in your face. You think its going to all be solved in YEARS. How many YEARS do you think we have here before the next thing comes a long? It wasn't that long ago, 5 GB was enough, now its 500GB, how long until its 50 TBs?

Or $1000 for a few TB of hard drive space in five years. That sort of thing doesn't make me take you seriously.

A) I never said that "in five years" part. You need to read what I write. However, I suspect you're intentionally manipulating my words because you simply don't have any other leg to stand on. I'm right, you know it, and its pissed you off. Thus exaggerations, the insults, and the general disrespectful discourse.

B) The fact that you have to wait five years for your solution to even remotely sound feasible makes your predictions irrelevant. Back when the iPod was in its glory days, I'm sure you were predicting the iPad right?

PC sales are slowing (Macs are not.) Tablet sales are skyrocketing.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/2011/09/15/pc-sales-slow-while-tablet-sales-skyrocket-firm-says/

PC sales are still growing year over year, but the rate at which they are growing is declining. Usually the first sign (as you yourself pointing out) that the market is about to drop.

Growth has been sluggish for PCs for some time, so you can't just jump to the "see its tablets cutting into PCs" conclusion. Other things happening have included the popularity of laptops, the increased lifespan of computers, and the simple fact that its now a mature market where gains are difficult to come by. This is not by any means news here. The second derivative of PC sales has been bouncing around zero for about a decade.

 

[Tanax]

I find it hilerious to read all of the (seamingly) serious discussion about pads going to replace desktop computers in the future.

Thunderbolt being faster? Better CPU performance in smaller form-factors suitable for pads? Sure. All of those things are probably true. But are you forgetting that the desktop parts will also continue to develop and become better? Or do you think that that development will cease now when we have pads? Come on.. In 5 years, the pads then will probably be close to as good or equally as good as a regular desktop computer today. But the desktop computers in 5 years will top that pad for sure.

That's like saying that smartphones today are better than computers were in 1970. We should completely ditch computers and just go with smartphones because clearly we have enough power in the smartphones today..

 

[ScouseGeek]

I see pads as being the next Netbook, people get them because of the cheep an cheer full and "It's all I will need" then rapidly found out that it was far from enough. PC's are successful because they offer power when needed and have a whole host of useful applications built in and are comfortable to use, Tablets and netbooks are under powered, and unpleasant to use for more than a few minutes or possibly a hour at a time.

 

[xgman]

The PC side will continue to have more options driven by what customers want and to some extent what Apple puts out. Apple will decide for us what we want on the Mac/ixxx side. If Apple decides we want pads, then we will get pads. Not much else to it really.

 

[wallysb01]

The PC side will continue to have more options driven by what customers want and to some extent what Apple puts out. Apple will decide for us what we want on the Mac/ixxx side. If Apple decides we want pads, then we will get pads. Not much else to it really.

You're so at ease with your fate.

 

[Neodym]

discussion about pads going to replace desktop computers in the future.

Thats perhaps one root cause of misunderstanding here. Why should Pads completely replace desktop computers when they instead could complement them (-> "intelligent terminal") or even become them? Remember that patent application of Apple where a pad-like device was plugable into something looking like a monitor?

What if the *logic* is sitting in future pads and the *power* is actually sitting in the connected box? You can prepare the easy tasks (i.e. doable on a 9.7" touchscreen) on the go, perhaps add keyboard/mouse now and then (on the road or at home/in the office) for more sophisticated things and when you eventually plug it in the "big iron" box with sufficient grunt the number crunching will begin.

Why not simply plugging a desktop computer into the monitor? Because our society is becoming more mobile and you simply can't take that calculating behemoth with you everywhere you go (at least not in a comfortable manner). Sure you could have two or three devices (one at home, one for the road and maybe one for the office), but the borders will start to blur and frankly - all that synchronizing/coordinating of your work, contacts, music etc. etc. over various devices stays to be a pita, cloud or not (especially when you work in multiple clouds).

Why not having it all in one place: the logic board called SmartPad (or whatever) and either you buy calculation power online as needed or have a power block sitting in the attic, ideally being shared over various devices/employees to ensure the best load time?

Sure - this is not new at all. Terminal-Mainframe setups exist since the 60s, but today it can be done much more sophisticated - and its not the privilege of huge companies anymore, but everyone can do it.

The scenario described above is probably some 3-5 years away, but I can see everything moving there sooner rather than later...

 

[-hh]

...
Edit: Wait a second? Since when did a couple of TB of hard drives cost $1000. If you really believe in 5 years you won't be able to pick up a Thunderbolt hard drive case at Frys for $50... well...

For $1K, you can buy today a Thunderbolt-based Promise Pegasus R4 (4 drive RAID), which is IIRC roughly a $300 premium over same brand non-TB alternatives (namely, a Promise SmartStor NS4700 (4 drive RAID/NAS) for $700, or a NS4600 (4 drive RAID) for $400 before adding any drives).

Do you honestly think that the iPad form factor will ever offer power anywhere similar to a larger "real" computer setup? Sure, in five years the iPad will be more powerful than it is now, and it will still be nowhere close to the power of a tower or all in one, even compared to current models.

A lot depends on where you set the bar for what you consider to be a "real" setup. For example, the current (2011) i7 based iMac has CPU benchmarks in the ballpark of the current (2010) base Mac Pro, but if we want a longer term view, I'd be willing to bet a better that the current iPad probably benchmarks higher than the original intro (2003) PowerMac G5 towers: in basically just eight years, the geekbench values have gone from ~1000 to 20K and higher.

goMac, I don't report people almost ever, but you post previous the one I quote below I reported. You're getting to be extremely condescending and disrespectful...

Golly, it is just amazing at just how quickly tunes change...in but a mere 46 hours.

The problem is that I doubt "most users" only do email/web/facebook. It might make up 90%+ of their home computing usage, but they still do enough things that a tablet is not yet ready to do, that the tablet can not be an all out replacement of the PC.

Doubt all you want, but I've also seen my wife not touch our home PCs in almost literally weeks & months...she's constantly on her iPad-1.

Granted, this is hyperbola in that there is the occasional "touch". There's been two things I've seen her do since Christmas: the one is to print out an existing MS-Word document; the second is to use a klunge I put together to mimic a photocopier ...and that's because our current home printer isn't one of those All-in-ones.

Nevertheless, the fundamental point is clear: the iPad is demonstrating to be adequate as an 80% (or higher) solution for home computing needs....for at least some segment of consumers. Nothing is ever going to be a 100% for everyone, afterall.

Like I said above. It might make users more likely push PC purchases further into the future, but I don't see a slow down in PC sales yet, do you? And I mean empirical data here.

Oh, there's empirical data that PC sales have done more than slowed down: some literal YoY shrinking showed up a full year ago.

And lest one suspect an isolated case, there's also been trend-supportive follow-up reports, if one does actually go looking for statistics what the market's actually been doing quarterly for the past year.

BTW, on statistics do note that in several (most?) cases that to get the true "non-Mac" picture, you'll need to a little bit of math to subtract out Apple's numbers & redo the %-change calculations.


[ EDIT - merged in another post ]

Thats perhaps one root cause of misunderstanding here. Why should Pads completely replace desktop computers when they instead could complement them (-> "intelligent terminal") or even become them? Remember that patent application of Apple where a pad-like device was plugable into something looking like a monitor?

Yes, I recall it ... and that it was a Mac Duo docking station turned on its side.

...

Sure - this is not new at all. Terminal-Mainframe setups exist since the 60s, but today it can be done much more sophisticated - and its not the privilege of huge companies anymore, but everyone can do it.

The scenario described above is probably some 3-5 years away, but I can see everything moving there sooner rather than later...

Agreed. Aspects of the Cloud are already starting to demonstrate the handling part of this...take a photo on your iPhone and it shows up on other devices, etc: that's data storage & management.

The "key technology enablers" question is the more interesting one to ponder; bandwidth is one factor and the providing of CPU/GPU horsepower is another obvious one - and probably the one of greater interest in the Mac Pro forum. Grand Central Dispatch is probably part of a larger scheme to get the software coders to start to work at breaking down their code into smaller -- more distributable -- bites.


-hh

 

[wallysb01]

Golly, it is just amazing at just how quickly tunes change...in but a mere 46 hours.

Well...when in Rome...

 

[wallysb01]

Doubt all you want, but I've also seen my wife not touch our home PCs in almost literally weeks & months...she's constantly on her iPad-1.

Granted, this is hyperbola in that there is the occasional "touch". There's been two things I've seen her do since Christmas: the one is to print out an existing MS-Word document; the second is to use a klunge I put together to mimic a photocopier ...and that's because our current home printer isn't one of those All-in-ones.

Nevertheless, the fundamental point is clear: the iPad is demonstrating to be adequate as an 80% (or higher) solution for home computing needs....for at least some segment of consumers. Nothing is ever going to be a 100% for everyone, afterall.

Your wife is but one person, remember. My wife is by no means a high end user, but she still prefers my Macbook Pro or our desktop if given the option. And yes there are those days when, I don't know, you don't want to file your taxes on an iPad....(since its the session it came to mind)

Again, one person, but honestly, if you're going to need to sit and do something at a computer for more than about 20 minutes, a desktop/laptop is just easier is so many ways. And this day in age, are we really pretending all "home" use of a computer is just some light email and web browsing? I'm not. I know plenty of people that bring work home with them and need more than what an iPad allows. Even if its not that often, its enough to want that PC there when you need it.

Oh, there's empirical data that PC sales have done more than slowed down: some literal YoY shrinking showed up a full year ago.

And lest one suspect an isolated case, there's also been trend-supportive follow-up reports, if one does actually go looking for statistics what the market's actually been doing quarterly for the past year.

Right, you found a report of a decline over a random six quarter period in just Europe, or another of just UK and France...hmm, methinks someone is presenting only those reports that support a particular point of view....

From the same site you noted:
Up 1.1% in 1Q12
Expected 4.4% Growth in 2012
Down 1.4% in 4Q11, but up .5% in 2011 over all

Those are WORLD WIDE.

You get the point. Don't cherry pick. PC sale have still been growing, but growth has been a bit hit or miss depending on what start/end points you happen to cherry pick.

Oh, and something forgotten in all this is the economic situation we're in. Of course sales have been a little slower in the last few years. We are still struggling to come out of a recession....especially Europe. But no, its not that, its the "end of the PC era". Please.

BTW, on statistics do note that in several (most?) cases that to get the true "non-Mac" picture, you'll need to a little bit of math to subtract out Apple's numbers & redo the %-change calculations.

But why do we want non-Mac numbers anyway?

 

[wallysb01]

Thats perhaps one root cause of misunderstanding here. Why should Pads completely replace desktop computers when they instead could complement them (-> "intelligent terminal") or even become them? Remember that patent application of Apple where a pad-like device was plugable into something looking like a monitor?

What if the *logic* is sitting in future pads and the *power* is actually sitting in the connected box? You can prepare the easy tasks (i.e. doable on a 9.7" touchscreen) on the go, perhaps add keyboard/mouse now and then (on the road or at home/in the office) for more sophisticated things and when you eventually plug it in the "big iron" box with sufficient grunt the number crunching will begin.
....

First, excuse me cutting post of, just doing so for space. But I think you're mostly right. However, we have most of what you're talking about now. I can download scripts, edit them, and then upload them to a cluster or workstation at work and start a job with technology today. Right now, I'm sitting here logged into a university cluster in terminal, and my work Mac Pro in terminal and in screen sharing on a Macbook Pro. I can essentially do the same on an iPhone or iPad as well, its just the interface isn't as easy to deal with.

The data synchronization is partially a problem. I would never actually try to get anything but small finished projects to my home computer. The connections are just way to slow when dealing with raw data that adds up into the many GBs. Even some finished projections are multiple GBs. And even if I wanted to keep things synched, it would take tremendous amounts of duplicated efforts. However, I don't think this problem is going to get any better any time soon. Data is getting bigger a lot faster than our connections are getting fatter.

It may be that one day the "guts" of this MBP I'm using is a tablet-like device I just plug in to a desktop docking station, but there will still be advantages and disadvantages to doing so in the future. Space will always be an issue. Less space will simply mean less power, less expandability and more cost. So the choice will be there to buy a divide that can cross into both worlds to a sufficient degree to be acceptable or to just have two specialized devices. It may always be that having the two specialized devices is actually cheaper and provides more performance than the one mobile/desktop cross over + the docking station. It can just be a lot harder to be good at two things, than it can be to be great a one thing.

To use the tired car analogy, it could be an el camino. Not a car, not a truck and not good at anything. On the other hand it could be the SUV... we'll see.

 

[wonderspark]

To use the tired car analogy, it could be an el camino. Not a car, not a truck and not good at anything. On the other hand it could be the SUV... we'll see.

Hey now... the El Camino / Ranchero was a brilliant car. The "ute" is everywhere in Australia. Useful, and fast as owl snot on a doorknob, too!