Hey now... the El Camino / Ranchero was a brilliant car. The "ute" is everywhere in Australia. Useful, and fast as owl snot on a doorknob, too!
I'm unfamiliar with how fast owl snot is on a doorknob.
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NAB 2012 and the Mac Pro
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I'm unfamiliar with how fast owl snot is on a doorknob.
It's similar to making the Kessel Run in less than twelve parsecs. "She's fast enough for you, old man."
can't wait to see new MP with T-bolt connection. Must be dual ports to chain more devices. I was in NAB and saw a couple new things, one if Motu's new T-bolt device, two new very high speed drive and RAID from CalDigit, again, all thunderbolt.
http://www.studiodaily.com/2012/04/...thunderbolt-for-fcpx-and-avid-mc-6-workflows/
http://www.CalDigit.com/Thunderbolt/T1T2.html
http://www.caldigit.com/event.asp
the T1 from CalDigit looks really fast, 470MB/s according to their test.
http://www.studiodaily.com/2012/04/...thunderbolt-for-fcpx-and-avid-mc-6-workflows/
http://www.CalDigit.com/Thunderbolt/T1T2.html
http://www.caldigit.com/event.asp
the T1 from CalDigit looks really fast, 470MB/s according to their test.
That's an attempt at rationalization, not an excuse. Standards don't change just because you happen to now be the victim instead of the aggressor.
BTW, consecutive posts are a TOS violation too.
[ merged post for inclusion of the next comment, even though I'd rather not ]
But of course, since both are anecdotal. That's why I made it a point to say that nothing's ever going to be 100%.
For certain things, sure, but not necessarily so for others and that's been the paradigm shift. For example, with an iPad, one can sit in front of the TV and multitask... anecdotally, one recent example is to do surf & search to research the selection of hotels for a forthcoming vacation. This workflow is mostly click-and-read, so a tablet's keyboard disadvantage is offset by a user's preference to be able to sit reclined in front of the TV.
Again, you are anecdotal, just as I am and both of our wives.
...but in the meantime, have you happened to have heard of a time-suck called Facebook?
Yes, and my wife brings her laptop home for telework days ... but that's work, not home, use case applications.
...and in any case, I have actually seen her using both machines at once, in basically a "dual monitor" type of setup: the iPad was the unprivileged session viewing the website that they were testing, while the laptop was down in the weeds.
In any case, all we're doing here is seeking to perform some pattern recognition in looking for market/consumer trends before the puzzle is complete ... since once the picture is complete, it would be retrospective and not particularly useful.
(on PC market dynamics)
Actually, I just search for 60 seconds for a couple of examples. I've already seen enough such reports to satisfy myself that the dynamics today are sufficiently different from the big boom growth days of the past. This doesn't mean jumping to the conclusion that the PC is dead...
And FWIW, there was a big dip in PC sales during the earlier part of this recession (circa 2008-9) and that PC sales have since recovered ... but not necessarily in the same fashion as before with the same players and products...and that's IMO the important observation to glean.
You're kidding, right?
Well, perhaps not.
Explaining, it is because the current sales are not necessarily in the same fashion as before with the same players and products. So if you want to see what the individual players are doing, you have to do more math on the numbers.
For example, the PC market is pretty much traditionally assumed to be the Windows PC market, since for years the Mac numbers that were rolled in with them were insignificant.
But one of the analysts published recently, probably 2-3 quarters ago where they showed how the quarter's reported "good news" gains went to a "bad news" loss when Apple's contribution was removed. Hey, that kind of insight just might be important for an investor to know, eh?
I can't find that particular link, so I'll recreated it, using your Gartner 2011 report, which stated that 2011 worldwide PC sales were 352,806,984 units, up from 350,900,332 in 2010, for a +0.5% gain.
Okay, but just what were Apple's 2010 and 2011 Mac sales? This source says 13.6M and 16.7M.
Thus, we can now calculate the "non-Mac" (eg, Windows) worldwide PC sales performance:
2010: 350.9M - 13.6M = 337.3M
2011: 352.8M - 16.7M = 336.1M
2011 outcome: -0.36% (loss)
Oh, that's no longer good news for Mr. Windows PC. And that's because their performance was being obscured by the "Only Mac" PC sales, which was 16.7M/13.6M = +22.8%
-hh
haha, oh -hh, you misunderstand. And the rules say "multiple" posts, which can mean two, but is typically used to mean "many".
Right, your assumption of "most people" is no better than mine.
A reasonable enough usage of an iPad. But again, if its going to "replace" PCs its going to have to do more than that.
Facebook? What's that? But again, I believe we're over generalizing the needs of "most people" to just be email/surfing/facebook. That is certainly the majority of most people's usage, and certain an iPad can do that well. But I don't think its enough of most people's usage for an iPad, in its current form, to replace PCs. It will be true for some, but I doubt it will be true for "many". We can disagree. Time will tell who's right.
Another fine use of an iPad.
Certainly things are different from the 90's when "most people" where buying their first PC. There are a lot of reasons for that. Remember you jumped into a conversation where another poster was using this as evidence that the PC is dead.
Recessions often lead to a reevaluation and then later a fundamental change in the market. The other thing to remember is that in a lot of respects the recession is not really over, or at least the recovery has not been strong enough to pull us out of it yet. So, more changes can still happen as world economy, hopefully, finally pulls all the way out of this.
This is archaic, literally. The only reason for doing so is because its "traditional". There isn't sound logic in doings. You can use Macs in just the same way you can use Windows PCs. The sticker on the back doesn't change what the product actually is.
If you were investing HP...but that's getting off topic.
Again, but why is this a logical thing to do, other than its been done before and you want to? Macs are still computers right? I could by an HP or I could by Mac, they both do the same things.
As I already mentioned, iOS already has windows. It also already has external display and (USB) keyboard support. All you need to do is toss in a mouse, and a more traditional environment for iOS windows like Mac OS, and you're good to go.
Again, what? I don't care what sort of drives you shove in it, but in 5 years Thunderbolt enclosures are likely going to be dirt cheap. FW400/FW800 enclosures started at the same prices.
Heck, drives can stick with the current already fast enough Thunderbolt enclosures.
Huh? I said five years, and you replied.
My prediction has been 5 years from the very beginning of this thread. You're the one who's changing that. You're setting up your own straw man.
My argument has never been that the Mac Pro is dead today, or can be replaced today. Again, if you were reading what I posted, that would be clear. I'm eagerly awaiting a Mac Pro update myself.
Then if PC sales are sluggish shouldn't tablet sales be sluggish too?
BTW - The reason I'm back here is because of your continued threats of reporting. Report all you want, but if you're messaging me outside this thread to tell me you're reporting me, that's harassment. For the one who's supposedly "angry" over this thread, I haven't done any reporting of anyone. I don't remember reporting anyone in this forum ever actually, no matter how strongly I've disagreed with them. Of course I've been a member a long time, so hopefully I'm not forgetting a report I made somewhere.
As I already mentioned, iOS already has windows. It also already has external display and (USB) keyboard support. All you need to do is toss in a mouse, and a more traditional environment for iOS windows like Mac OS, and you're good to go.
So why wouldn't you just use OSX? What do you gain by this, aside from absolutely nothing? We should throw out a richer OS for dubious reasons? I think it is far more likely that X86 is pushed down into the iPad, than ARM becomes our desktop architecture. The power difference isn't even close.
Again, what? I don't care what sort of drives you shove in it, but in 5 years Thunderbolt enclosures are likely going to be dirt cheap. FW400/FW800 enclosures started at the same prices.
Heck, drives can stick with the current already fast enough Thunderbolt enclosures.
Huh? I said five years, and you replied.
My prediction has been 5 years from the very beginning of this thread. You're the one who's changing that. You're setting up your own straw man.
My argument has never been that the Mac Pro is dead today, or can be replaced today. Again, if you were reading what I posted, that would be clear. I'm eagerly awaiting a Mac Pro update myself.
Then if PC sales are sluggish shouldn't tablet sales be sluggish too?
PC's sell in huge numbers still. It's GROWTH that is "sluggish". Not the same thing at all. PC sales still crush tablet sales. CRUSH.
BTW - The reason I'm back here is because of your continued threats of reporting. Report all you want, but if you're messaging me outside this thread to tell me you're reporting me, that's harassment. For the one who's supposedly "angry" over this thread, I haven't done any reporting of anyone. I don't remember reporting anyone in this forum ever actually, no matter how strongly I've disagreed with them. Of course I've been a member a long time, so hopefully I'm not forgetting a report I made somewhere.
You know how you surmise the tablet is going to be so much better in five years? Apply the same to computers...these things don't stand still! Unless we become a world of unproductive slobs (think Wall-E), there will always be a need for large productive machines. This idea that the tablet is going to evolve to destroy desktops in any way, is just silly. It won't happen even in five years.
Other responses in bold.
So, you're saying just make it like a PC and you're ready to replace PCs. What is the point then?
And look at how far FW really made it.... Its on a handful of Macs, and replaced by USB3 and thunderbolt. 5 years is just too long. If thunderbolt has to wait nearly that long to be relevant, it will be replaced.
For 5 years?
You seem to have confused yourself then. I was referring to the current high costs of thunderbolt devices, that have not dropped much in over a year we've had these connectors. Many basic devices for thunderbolt are still just showing up on the market. Thunderbolt has some promise, but prices have a long way to go. They have to at least get cut in half to be competitive with other options for the use you're suggesting. It needs to get to the point that iPad+Display+thunderbolt accessories are cost competitive with a PC for an iPad to replace a PC. Right now, you're spending up towards $3000 for such a set up, which could be done with a PC for maybe around $500. That will depend on how you value the display, but since you don't have more simplistic options for thunderbolt displays, Apple is forcing your hand. That's a long way to go, even in 5 years.
I'm not changing anything, nor creating a straw man. Maybe you need to read a little more carefully and take a little longer to digest it before getting emotional.
Good for you.
No, different markets with entirely different user groups and external market pressures.
I didn't threaten anything. I did report your behavior.
Stop making things up. I'm not messing with you outside this thread. I looked at your profile after your insults, to find a message from Getz also insulting me. I then replied saying that behavior would also be reported. I see now that post has been deleted....I can only assume why.
For the one who's supposedly "angry" over this thread, I haven't done any reporting of anyone. I don't remember reporting anyone in this forum ever actually, no matter how strongly I've disagreed with them. Of course I've been a member a long time, so hopefully I'm not forgetting a report I made somewhere.
Pat yourself on the back then. You got reported, not because we disagree, but because you lovingly referred to me as an idiot and took a general disrespectful and condescending attitude toward me. Some would call that harassment, which is against the rules (in addition to the name calling obviously).
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Oh no Kiddies !!!
Uncle Moderator is going to take away your crayons !!!!
please, do you know how boring this is for those of us not in the pi55ing contest?
Uncle Moderator is going to take away your crayons !!!!
please, do you know how boring this is for those of us not in the pi55ing contest?
You're behaving as if you're our mother. We can disagree and continue talking about what we disagree on so long as its at least mostly civil, which I think its returned to.
So, do you have something on topic to say, or are you just going to keep telling us to shut up, in so many words?
have you ever read a trolling flame fest ?
boring as all get out for everyone not involved in tossing the mud
if anyone needs to get "on topic", it isn't me
Here's a funny observation.
You telling him to drop it - when in fact you're the one who's keeping it alive
Just stop arguing about him "shutting up" and he'll stop replying since he won't have anything to reply to. Kind of logical.. just saying.
That's a literalist interpretation.
By that standard, a PC can't ever have even replaced this:
...because a PC doesn't have the paper spool coming out its top.
That's again a literalist interpretation, unfortunately. What I see is that the iPad has already transformed buying patterns, and the forward trend is already clear. What makes the trend possible is that households today no longer are limited to but a single machine, so there's an aspect of "Fleet" to the capabilities which means that the 20% that's missing from a Tablet as an 80% solution isn't an insurmountable problem.
To illustrate, consider a use case that's currently has two PCs:
Fleet(1): 2 good PCs
---> buy an iPad:
Fleet(2): 2 good PCs + iPad
time passes:
1 good PC + 1 iPad + 1 old PC
---> the old PC gets thrown out
Fleet(3): 1 good PC + 1 iPad
Looking at the process from the perspective of Fleet(1) vs (3), we see that the high level view is "an iPad replaced a PC".
Pedantically, this isn't literally true, because the user(s) will simply switch to (or borrow) the PC for whatever the iPad can't do, but that's really no different than today's situations where only a single instance of some specialty peripheral (eg, flatbed scanner) is present within a fleet.
BTW, to toss in a good automotive analogy ("just because they're fun"), look at the fleet of vehicles that families own. Sure, you'll find some families that have 100% SUVs or 100% minivans, but you're also going to find lots of examples of (1 car + 1 truck), (1 big + 1 small), etc. The point here is that a Tablet doesn't need to "Replace" a PC unless there's only but one single tool in the toolbox.
Oh, and continuing:
more time passes:
Fleet(4): 1 old PC + 1 old iPad
even more time passes:
Fleet(5): ???
Obviously, something is going to get replaced...eventually, one can expect it to be both devices. However, another factor that's probably also occurred is that the useful life of the PC has probably been increased (eg, from 3 years to 4 years, or 4 to 5, etc), which will also result in reduction of marketplace demand for new PCs.
Isn't it interesting that even though we know that "Productivity" is the driver, we still use "Jobs" as our populist measure of the Economy?
And the public is now acting surprised at jobless recoveries - - even though they aren't a new phenomena.
Not really the point. The point is that there's differentiation the market that only becomes evident when you separate the market into segments.
One would think so...but the Market is voting with their wallet IRL and is already saying differently. This is simply more evidence of successful product differentiation by Apple.
BTW, also don't neglect to remember that these PC Sales metrics exclude the sales of the iPad.
-hh
Here's a funny observation.
You telling him to drop it - when in fact you're the one who's keeping it alive
Just stop arguing about him "shutting up" and he'll stop replying since he won't have anything to reply to. Kind of logical.. just saying.
yeah, that worked
thanks for the tip
Apparently you misunderstood my point. Something doesn't have to literally take over the exact, literal functionality (i.e. a paper typer writer to a computer), but that doesn't mean the more fundamental task isn't still being covered by the new product (word processing in this case). So, the iPad has to cover the tasks of the PC to replace it, but that doesn't mean it has to be a PC.
The other option is that the old PC is also replaced and iPads simply complement PCs, but in general do not replace them. Meaning the iPad is not taking away functions from a PC so much as it is just creating new functions. For example, my mother teaches young kids. The iPad has replaced a great many paper learning tools, and given her a whole new set of tools besides, but she still works on a PC too.
The same can be said for the iPad too. Which one come closer to the flatbed scanner in this "fleet" will largely depend on individual usage patterns.
Sure, we need specialized tools for specialized tasks. In a broader sense this is how progress happens. But that doesn't mean the SUV replaced trucks or cars. In some cases this is would be true, but its not global truth as has been claimed here about tablets.
Of course, eventually everything will get replaced. So ultimately this argument is pointless (Ok that's true for a lot of reasons). And I do remember bringing up the extended PC life sometime a go, back before goMac went off the rocker.
Yep, jobs are going over seas, technology is getting better to allow for fewer people to be more productive. Skilled labor takes longer and longer to train, and those that don't make it through it all, end up a commodity, which would be replaced by perl script is someone could just figure out how yet.
Yes, there are different market segments, but is it productive to make these subdivision for the purpose of this conversation? I don't think so.
Yes, Apple makes a slightly different product than Dell or HP. However, its still a personal computer. The reasons for separating Windows PCs and Apple do not apply to this topic.
And of course iPads aren't included, that doesn't justify the exclusion of Macs, however.
Right, because you moaning about how boring a conversation between two other people is to you is obviously on topic....
Last I checked the world does not revolve around MacVidCards.
So you fanboys still believe Apple are going to come thru with a new MacPro ... It's June! -- I'll check back in 2013, I'm sure the faith will still be going strong ... just like all religions.
If anyone believes an iPad is going to replace conventional desktop computers, they need to either be committed to an insane asylum or get out into the real world and look around. I think that's one of the biggest problems with Apple and Microsoft, they both live in a unrealistic world hoping that momentum will win the day.
We don't have an end-all be-all computing device from anyone, not Apple, not Microsoft, not Sony, not Samsung, etc. etc. What we have are devices of compromises
Does an iPad make a great phone, no - it's kinda big!
Does an iPad make a great way to watch movies, yes it can, but their again are you willing to give up a 55" TV image with 7.1 surround sound and a sub that can shake your house down for the iPads 9" display and two tiny speakers?
Can you type as fast and accurate on an iPhone or iPad as you can on a desktop keyboard, no! It's another compromise.
How fast is that 3G or 4G connection ... as fast as your home ISP via hardwire router? No, if your lucky is 1/30th as fast as your ISP. And how's the latency (something you need if you do any real time multiplayer gaming) -- its horrible! Again, it's a compromise.
Ok, now lets move on to some games on the iPad ... yes they have some, they look ok, about 5 years behind current visual quality you'd would see on a desktop computer ... another compromise. Where do I plug in my wheel/pedals so I can "Feel" a nice racing experience ... dang, nope, just buttons or tilt the device ... not exactly tactile ... again compromise.
Anyway, I think I made my point, these devices are all compromises and have some serious limitations. How long will people keep "living with" those limitations -- my guess is not too long (sales of these devices are already showing signs of being flat). We're a good 15-20 years away before we'll see small portable devices capable of having the current abilities of desktop computers, TVs, etc. etc. But I'm not sure the compromise of portable devices will ever catch up because the desktop devices keep pushing forward also.
RIP MacPro.
-- I'll check back in 2013, I'm sure the faith will still be going strong ... just like all religions.If anyone believes an iPad is going to replace conventional desktop computers, they need to either be committed to an insane asylum or get out into the real world and look around. I think that's one of the biggest problems with Apple and Microsoft, they both live in a unrealistic world hoping that momentum will win the day.
We don't have an end-all be-all computing device from anyone, not Apple, not Microsoft, not Sony, not Samsung, etc. etc. What we have are devices of compromises
Does an iPad make a great phone, no - it's kinda big!
Does an iPad make a great way to watch movies, yes it can, but their again are you willing to give up a 55" TV image with 7.1 surround sound and a sub that can shake your house down for the iPads 9" display and two tiny speakers?
Can you type as fast and accurate on an iPhone or iPad as you can on a desktop keyboard, no! It's another compromise.
How fast is that 3G or 4G connection ... as fast as your home ISP via hardwire router? No, if your lucky is 1/30th as fast as your ISP. And how's the latency (something you need if you do any real time multiplayer gaming) -- its horrible! Again, it's a compromise.
Ok, now lets move on to some games on the iPad ... yes they have some, they look ok, about 5 years behind current visual quality you'd would see on a desktop computer ... another compromise. Where do I plug in my wheel/pedals so I can "Feel" a nice racing experience ... dang, nope, just buttons or tilt the device ... not exactly tactile ... again compromise.
Anyway, I think I made my point, these devices are all compromises and have some serious limitations. How long will people keep "living with" those limitations -- my guess is not too long (sales of these devices are already showing signs of being flat). We're a good 15-20 years away before we'll see small portable devices capable of having the current abilities of desktop computers, TVs, etc. etc. But I'm not sure the compromise of portable devices will ever catch up because the desktop devices keep pushing forward also.
RIP MacPro.
So you fanboys still believe Apple are going to come thru with a new MacPro ... It's June!
Experts with previous good sources are saying there will be an update, so yep, betting on an update.
http://www.appleinsider.com/article...rce_says_no_chance_apple_will_ax_mac_pro.html
I really don't get the sour attitude around here. Far more rumor evidence is for a Mac Pro update than against right now.
hahaha. Love the cartoon. I should show that to the Mrs since she always wants to know why I am typing so furiously. She says, "That is you".