NAB 2012 and the Mac Pro

[robains]

I am a big fan of reevaluation. Just don't think Apple will license until they truly give up on OS X and focus solely on iOS. iOS is starting to feel like the Wal-Mart that just got built in my hometown. Good bye jobs, good bye creativity. Just buy garbage you don't need and shut-up. Times have changed. Wonder if Apple even understands it's own hypocrisy?

I'm certain they do -- but I don't think it's hypocrisy -- they've always been about money and how to get it out of the consumer and now application developers too.

Yeah, innovation is a dirty word for both Apple and Microsoft -- sadly innovation is viewed as risky -- and I'm certain the current crop of Apple execs don't and/or aren't willing to take any risk.

 

[goMac]

Yeah, innovation is a dirty word for both Apple and Microsoft -- sadly innovation is viewed as risky -- and I'm certain the current crop of Apple execs don't and/or aren't willing to take any risk.

Not innovating, and not doing the innovating you want them to do are two entirely different things.

Both the iPad and iPhone are innovative, just not what you want. I wouldn't define Apple as not innovative, just single minded.

 

[getz76]

I think that is harsh on Microsoft. They come out with some fabulous stuff in a wide variety of spaces.

The fact that you can install Windows on anything not moving fast enough to get away is pretty impressive, too.

 

[robains]

Because it's cheap and simple. It's the easiest computer to use on the market for consumers. Sales numbers back that up, iPad is easily outselling all Macs combined right now.

Don't be fooled by early sales numbers, iPad is still a VERY small share in the overall computing market.

Because if they don't care, why should they take the trouble of opening it up?

Opening it up isn't exactly a lot of trouble on the technical side, in fact, it's probably just a matter of removing a few restrictions

That said, I think 5 years from now the iPad will also be suitable for pros. It'll have Thunderbolt, multiple windows, external mouse/keyboard/display support... But it's the lurch in between that's the problem.

Oh so you mean it'll be just like current laptops only more cumbersome

Never, it will have it's place, but you gotta realize the Tablet market isn't "new" and iPad's do have real limits when it comes to how much power they can consume. Pro's don't stop wanting more powerful machines ... hence why this thread exists ... people want a new more powerful MacPro.

People will catch on eventually, it's a good gadget for now, people are buying them and trying them and going "eh" ... the people that aren't going "eh" are the ones trying to stay positive and justify why they spent so much on the iPad when they could have a laptop that does more and is more functional.

Sure it doesn't matter what I think, but that's not really relevant. I'm just pointing out my opinion on where I believe Apple's dumping of the MacPro is ultimately a bad move ... diversify. Giving up on something when the company is in a good position to turn it around is not smart management.

 

[GermanyChris]

Apple sells a complete "system" HW, OS, and programs that way you see their vision of computing. OSX won't be licensed because Apple needs control of all of it to impart there vision. like DeConstruct said the sell a full system.

 

[derbothaus]

I think that is harsh on Microsoft. They come out with some fabulous stuff in a wide variety of spaces.

The fact that you can install Windows on anything not moving fast enough to get away is pretty impressive, too.

Getz, i'd like a list of that stuff please.

MS is a "Me too" company right now. Best stuff they ever produced was mice and keyboards. I still go to the campus to pick up that stuff. The rest is just paying people to copy existing successful markets and then failing repeatably at it. Kinect, Zune, Bing. The list hath no end.
Almost forgot the new Win 8 with phone like gestures etc, etc. It's all getting really sad.

 

[wallysb01]

Because it's cheap and simple. It's the easiest computer to use on the market for consumers. Sales numbers back that up, iPad is easily outselling all Macs combined right now.

But its a new market. You can't do an apples to apples comparison because until about Dec of 2011 very few people actually had a tablet. Most people already have a PC/laptop, thus they only need to refresh every few years. What happens when a large part of the potential customer base already has a tablet? Will they keep refreshing their PC/laptop purchases or will they forgo that and just use the tablet. None of us sitting here knows the answer to that question.

For me, the iPad, or similar devices, will never replace my need for either a desktop or a laptop. Further, I don't even like using the tablets. The phone is nice because its highly mobile and easy to type off a quick email when on the run, but the tablet? In a lot of cases it might as well just be laptop as far as portability. It doesn't fit in your pocket. It even takes up a substantial footprint. Anyway, point is, if I think this way, and a few others on this board do, its likely a significant number of other people do too. So, we need to let it play out. The novelty factor needs to ware off, and market needs to reach saturation.

Keep in mind, I don't think you're necessarily wrong about this. I think Apple could become the biggest seller of PCs and make money doing it, licensing OS X aside. But Apple won't. From their perspective, all effort has to go into making sure they are king of the post pc market.

Right, because that's where the money is now, and they are trying to get as much of it while it lasts. However, insane profits from these "post-pc era" devices will almost certainly not last. I'd bet the smart people from Apple have realized they need keep up the Mac line, because in two years the tablet could go the way of the mp3 player and be replace by yet another "post-something" device. The PC/laptop market, however, that's been established for at least 20 years now. Sure, something could change, but its less likely.

That said, I think 5 years from now the iPad will also be suitable for pros. It'll have Thunderbolt, multiple windows, external mouse/keyboard/display support... But it's the lurch in between that's the problem.

But what are you going to do about the thickness then? Thunderbolt isn't getting any skinner. Then you have to make room for the controller too. These things aren't going to shrink much, if at all, in 5 years. So, once you've added that space to an iPad, why don't you just have an Air? Are you also going to rely on thunderbolt/bluetooth for everything then? So, I come home and plug my iPad into a spiderweb of cables and I'm endlessly swapping batteries? Eh...that doesn't sound like improvement... I mean think of it, just for home use, I'd need at least 2 hard drives, at least one display, a GPU, likely a connection hub (unless I fork over insane cash for the "thunderbolt display"), and of course, a mouse/keyboard all connected to tunderbolt, and don't forget power sources for all this stuff? Eventually, I guess, most of this could be sold in a self contained box, but WHY?!?!? At that point, just give me a desktop, all you'd be missing is a CPU anyway.

 

[goMac]

Don't be fooled by early sales numbers, iPad is still a VERY small share in the overall computing market.

Huh? What data is there that offers a differing view? Not only are iPad sales past the Mac, but they're accelerating rapidly. Seems open and shut to me.

"Don't be fooled" seems more to mean "Don't listen to actual solid evidence that what I'm claiming is not true because I don't want you to."

Opening it up isn't exactly a lot of trouble on the technical side, in fact, it's probably just a matter of removing a few restrictions

And dealing with support and distribution, when Apple could just be selling iPads instead.

Oh so you mean it'll be just like current laptops only more cumbersome

Yes, because no one ever docks their laptops once they're back at their desk. Such a ridiculous idea, I don't even know why I suggested it.

Never, it will have it's place, but you gotta realize the Tablet market isn't "new" and iPad's do have real limits when it comes to how much power they can consume. Pro's don't stop wanting more powerful machines ... hence why this thread exists ... people want a new more powerful MacPro.

Oh, again, I'm not saying we're there now. But faster Thunderbolt, faster tablets, and computing resources on your network all take care of that.

It's not like production companies render at their desks anyways, that's what server farms are for.

People will catch on eventually, it's a good gadget for now, people are buying them and trying them and going "eh" ... the people that aren't going "eh" are the ones trying to stay positive and justify why they spent so much on the iPad when they could have a laptop that does more and is more functional.

Again, not reflecting reality. The exact same thing was said about the iPod and iPhone.

Sure it doesn't matter what I think, but that's not really relevant. I'm just pointing out my opinion on where I believe Apple's dumping of the MacPro is ultimately a bad move ... diversify. Giving up on something when the company is in a good position to turn it around is not smart management.

I think diversity is a good thing, so I agree with you on that. Where I disagree with you is on the iPad being a flash in the pan (it isn't) or Apple having the motivation to license OS X (they don't.)

Apple is like an ADD second grader, and iOS is very shiny right now. Again, that's different than not being innovative. It just means they're easily distractible. If anything, ADD second graders are usually the most creative people in the room.

 

[wallysb01]

Again, not reflecting reality. The exact same thing was said about the iPod and iPhone.

And look at sales for the iPod: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Ipod_sales_per_quarter.svg

If your vantage point was 2006, you'd be thinking the sky is the limit too. But, the next year growth slowed, a year after that it peaked, and now we'll probably see it slowly die.

On the other hand, we just had record Mac sales in 4Q2011 right?

 

[goMac]

And look at sales for the iPod: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Ipod_sales_per_quarter.svg

If your vantage point was 2006, you'd be thinking the sky is the limit too. But, the next year growth slowed, a year after that it peaked, and now we'll probably see it slowly die.

On the other hand, we just had record Mac sales in 4Q2011 right?

According to the iPod app on my phone and iPad, the iPod is alive and well, just changed hardware.

Mac hasn't hit it's limit yet, but look at the growth curve compared to iPad.... Just saying, if Apple wants to stay ahead of the puck, to them iPad would be the way to go.

And again, full disclaimer, I've made clear I love my Mac Pro and are very worried they won't update it. So I'm not trying to bash on the Mac Pro like some people. I'm just trying to communicate the reality of the situation.

 

[wallysb01]

According to the iPod app on my phone and iPad, the iPod is alive and well, just changed hardware.

Mac hasn't hit it's limit yet, but look at the growth curve compared to iPad.... Just saying, if Apple wants to stay ahead of the puck, to them iPad would be the way to go.

And again, full disclaimer, I've made clear I love my Mac Pro and are very worried they won't update it. So I'm not trying to bash on the Mac Pro like some people. I'm just trying to communicate the reality of the situation.

Well sure, iPods are still selling, largely thanks to the tiny shuffles, but growth is gone. Most people don't need an mp3 player anymore, their phone does that.

And yes, growth for the iPad/tablet market is huge right now, but its starting from basically zero. This is often what happens in new markets. Apple needs to see past it. Sales history \= sales future. The iPad 3 could be the peak of this tablet boom. Though I suspect an iPad 4 mini would keep it going for at least one more round. And we'll see sales flatten around the iPad 5.

The phones and Macs, that's where the stability is. The tablets I see as a "take what you can, while you can" type market. It may mature into something more stable, but it may not.

 

[getz76]

Getz, i'd like a list of that stuff please.

MS is a "Me too" company right now. Best stuff they ever produced was mice and keyboards. I still go to the campus to pick up that stuff. The rest is just paying people to copy existing successful markets and then failing repeatably at it. Kinect, Zune, Bing. The list hath no end.
Almost forgot the new Win 8 with phone like gestures etc, etc. It's all getting really sad.

Since you asked.

It's hard to call Windows a failure because of preference. Just look at the install base. Windows 7 has some great UI ideas, especially for multiple monitors. It's fantastic for the number-crunching crowd.

They are still a leader on the business server side (Exchange and Sharepoint).

Kinect? Not sure how you call that a fail. It's pretty much received rave reviews all around.

The Xbox 360 is not a fail, even if you consider the hardware failures.

Windows 8 is looking to unify an OS with flexible input for a traditional computer, tablet or phone. Me too, maybe, but it is pretty well thought out. If you don't like the Metro UI, you can disable it. It's pretty well implemented even on the consumer preview. None of it is forced.

Media Center is great; too bad it is not supported more.

The biggest failure they have is their phone software, and they hosed their position up pretty hard. You can say search, too, but Bing is not terrible, it is a case of first-to-market advantage of Google vs. the world (even if Google wasn't first). Zune? I think they were always realistic about Zune and most people were happy with their Zunes, especially those into ZunePass.

Microsoft Research churns out some good stuff. Not just products, but the patents and ideas that come out are great. There's plenty other stuff that is bubbling, like Surface. You might not see a product out of some of it, but the research is great.

 

[goMac]

Well sure, iPods are still selling, largely thanks to the tiny shuffles, but growth is gone. Most people don't need an mp3 player anymore, their phone does that.

Sure, mostly because of the iPhone. iPods didn't peak, they just moved into the phone category. Add the iPhone into that graph and you'll see it's still climbing.

And yes, growth for the iPad/tablet market is huge right now, but its starting from basically zero. This is often what happens in new markets. Apple needs to see past it. Sales history \= sales future. The iPad 3 could be the peak of this tablet boom. Though I suspect an iPad 4 mini would keep it going for at least one more round. And we'll see sales flatten around the iPad 5.

The problem is, even if you're right, and even if it does peak, it's peaking way way higher than the Mac will probably ever be.

The phones and Macs, that's where the stability is. The tablets I see as a "take what you can, while you can" type market. It may mature into something more stable, but it may not.

Honestly, tablets are replacing PCs. Microsoft knows it (which is why they're willing to sacrifice so much goodwill in Windows 8), Apple knows it, and Google knows it. If tablets are going to fail, then the entire industry is going down with it. Microsoft has already sacrificed Windows as a desktop OS for a tablet future.

Tablets are still very early. You're assuming in 5 years the iPad is still going to be exactly the same, and everyone will be over it. I would not bet on that. It'll be like comparing the original iPod to the current iPhone.

Like it or not, the tablet is going to be the PC soon.

 

[getz76]

Like it or not, the tablet is going to be the PC soon.

Yup.

And in a couple of years, the juggernaut that is Android may do to tablets what it is doing to smartphones.

 

[goMac]

Yup.

And in a couple of years, the juggernaut that is Android may do to tablets what it is doing to smartphones.

Well, I hope not, I'd like Apple to win that battle, but that's a different conversation. I think Windows and iOS are going to be the big players in tablets.

Tablets are going to be just similar enough to PCs to put Google at a experience disadvantage. They can't even get their OS updates problem fixed, which is more and more of a problem the closer you get to the device being used like a PC.

 

[wallysb01]

Sure, mostly because of the iPhone. iPods didn't peak, they just moved into the phone category. Add the iPhone into that graph and you'll see it's still climbing.

But, an iPhone isn't an iPod. Its not like people would still be buying iPods at the same rate as iPhones+iPods if only there wasn't an iPhone.

The problem is, even if you're right, and even if it does peak, it's peaking way way higher than the Mac will probably ever be.

Maybe, but would you rather sell 1 million things today, or thousands of things everyday?

Honestly, tablets are replacing PCs. Microsoft knows it (which is why they're willing to sacrifice so much goodwill in Windows 8), Apple knows it, and Google knows it. If tablets are going to fail, then the entire industry is going down with it. Microsoft has already sacrificed Windows as a desktop OS for a tablet future.

No, the industry adapts and its not as if the entire industry can't make a miscalculation and have to correct itself. Tablets are here now, so they have to react to that. And if they slow down, they will react to that then too.

Tablets are still very early. You're assuming in 5 years the iPad is still going to be exactly the same, and everyone will be over it. I would not bet on that. It'll be like comparing the original iPod to the current iPhone.

Well, if it is something different, then its different. Thus, what ever it is, will not be the iPad. Just like the iPod is not the iPhone, and it fallacious to simply add them as if they were. So a tablet might "evolve" into something else, but it will still be something else. And I'm not saying everyone will be over it, but sales can't grow exponentially for long.

Like it or not, the tablet is going to be the PC soon.

But, then you are implying that the tablet will essentially still be a tablet. I really don't understand what point you're trying to make with the tablet changing like the iPod did to the iPhone. If the iPod changed to the iPhone it gained a huge amount of functionality. Calling, web surfing, running apps. Are you saying the tablet will make a similar gain in functionality? How so? How will it do that to replace PCs?

 

[getz76]

But, then you are implying that the tablet will essentially still be a tablet. I really don't understand what point you're trying to make with the tablet changing like the iPod did to the iPhone. If the iPod changed to the iPhone it gained a huge amount of functionality. Calling, web surfing, running apps. Are you saying the tablet will make a similar gain in functionality? How so? How will it do that to replace PCs?

I think they have already displaced personal computers for a good number of people, and as people go to refresh they will have to make a decision; new laptop or a tablet?

That tablet in 5 years might have Thunderbolt or USB 3 and display on a monitor, with wireless keyboard and mouse. Cloud storage. That's the vision, and we're almost there already. So why does the average person need anything besides a tablet? That's the whole "post-PC" thinking.

I personally think it is stifling and dumbed down, but I am rather curmudgeonly.

 

[goMac]

But, an iPhone isn't an iPod. Its not like people would still be buying iPods at the same rate as iPhones+iPods if only there wasn't an iPhone.

I think they would. If the smartphone market didn't exist, people would still be buying iPods at an increasing rate.

But the smartphone market does exist, and people no longer have any reason to buy an iPod when they have an iPhone. I haven't bought a single iPod since I got my iPhone.

Maybe, but would you rather sell 1 million things today, or thousands of things everyday?

Not sure what the question is. iPad daily sales are already way past Mac, with no sign of stopping.

No, the industry adapts and its not as if the entire industry can't make a miscalculation and have to correct itself. Tablets are here now, so they have to react to that. And if they slow down, they will react to that then too.

Like I said, Windows 8 has already redesigned their APIs and GUI around tablets. It's too late to turn that ship around, and they're effectively abandoning desktops.

Well, if it is something different, then its different. Thus, what ever it is, will not be the iPad.

Now you're playing semantics. Why will it not be the iPad? Should we stop calling the Mac a Mac because it now ships with a UNIX OS that can multitask and Intel processors instead of the 68k?

Just like the iPod is not the iPhone, and it fallacious to simply add them as if they were. So a tablet might "evolve" into something else, but it will still be something else. And I'm not saying everyone will be over it, but sales can't grow exponentially for long.

It'll be a tablet called the iPad with more software capabilities than the current one, and improved hardware.

I don't think there is any reason to play semantics on that.

But, then you are implying that the tablet will essentially still be a tablet.

Never implied anything else.

I really don't understand what point you're trying to make with the tablet changing like the iPod did to the iPhone. If the iPod changed to the iPhone it gained a huge amount of functionality. Calling, web surfing, running apps. Are you saying the tablet will make a similar gain in functionality? How so? How will it do that to replace PCs?

Because I think in 5 years iOS is going to look a lot more like OS X. Multiple windows, mouse support, and multitasking (at least when docked with an external display). At that point, iOS would be a lot more acceptable to pros.

If Apple wasn't thinking that, you wouldn't have stuff like this:
http://developer.apple.com/library/...dowClassReference/UIWindowClassReference.html

Typically, there is only one window in an iOS application.

I read that as:

Typically, there is only one window in an iOS application, but that will probably change which is why we gave you this.

Imagine what you're seeing right now is Mac OS 1, and compare that to where Mac OS is today. Never said the iPad will go away, I said it will advance.

 

[wallysb01]

I think they have already displaced personal computers for a good number of people, and as people go to refresh they will have to make a decision; new laptop or a tablet?

I personally think it is stifling and dumbed down, but I am rather curmudgeonly.

Sure, it replaced PCs for some, but that's a lot different than saying it will just flat out replace PCs.

That tablet in 5 years might have Thunderbolt or USB 3 and display on a monitor, with wireless keyboard and mouse. Cloud storage. That's the vision, and we're almost there already. So why does the average person need anything besides a tablet? That's the whole "post-PC" thinking.

I see a few problems that do not have easy solutions, even in 5 years:

1) Thunderbolt is kinda bulky. USB3 might be option because its smaller than thunderbolt. But if you add thunderbolt to an iPad, its going to get substantially bigger. We don't even have USB2 on these now. So, do we see an iPad Pro, that is a little bigger but has some of this functionality? And how expensive will that be? At what point do you just want a laptop?

2) Wireless keyboards have a huge appetite for batteries. I'm not sure many people would be too thrilled going through a costco pack of AAAs every couple months between a keyboard and mouse. And while you could charge them, that will add to the spiderweb of cables we're already talking about.

3) Cloud storage is expensive and slow. I'm not exactly a photo or music nut, but I have easily 500GB of media and lately its been growing rapidly with two kids to take movie/photo of. Right now, 50GB of data is $100/year on Dropbox. The price would have to come down by a factor of 10 to be even remotely worth storing much on "the cloud". And by the time it does, how big will our media be? I already take home videos in 1080, and have a 12 MP Nikon that I sometimes wish to shot in RAW. What happens if we move away from disk storage of movies and to digital even more? Are we planning on just downloading movies and TV shows as we want to watch them even more? Our national bandwidth can't handle much more.

I'm not saying solutions aren't out there, but these are not things that will be easily or quickly solved. Further, these are things that will need to be solved before tablets can replace PCs for people that wish to use computers for more than just light email/web browsing. You're just going to reach a point were its far more cost/clutter effective to just buy a computer. You might say tablet will drop in price, but certainly a PC with greater performance will always be substantially cheaper.

 

[getz76]

Sure, it replaced PCs for some, but that's a lot different than saying it will just flat out replace PCs.

I think the numbers are going to be very large.

I see a few problems that do not have easy solutions, even in 5 years:

1) Thunderbolt is kinda bulky. USB3 might be option because its smaller than thunderbolt. But if you add thunderbolt to an iPad, its going to get substantially bigger. We don't even have USB2 on these now. So, do we see an iPad Pro, that is a little bigger but has some of this functionality? And how expensive will that be? At what point do you just want a laptop?

I disagree. USB 2 is sufficent for most people, and I think you will see Thunderbolt shrink in physical size (or incorporate a dock) to make it feasible, probably sooner than later.

2) Wireless keyboards have a huge appetite for batteries. I'm not sure many people would be too thrilled going through a costco pack of AAAs every couple months between a keyboard and mouse. And while you could charge them, that will add to the spiderweb of cables we're already talking about.

No way. Wireless is currently standard on iMacs, and they sell pretty well. There are plenty of wireless keyboards out there.

3) Cloud storage is expensive and slow. I'm not exactly a photo or music nut, but I have easily 500GB of media and lately its been growing rapidly with two kids to take movie/photo of. Right now, 50GB of data is $100/year on Dropbox. The price would have to come down by a factor of 10 to be even remotely worth storing much on "the cloud". And by the time it does, how big will our media be? I already take home videos in 1080, and have a 12 MP Nikon that I sometimes wish to shot in RAW. What happens if we move away from disk storage of movies and to digital even more? Are we planning on just downloading movies and TV shows as we want to watch them even more? Our national bandwidth can't handle much more.

It's not for you (or me), but your average user it is fine and not terribly expensive and sometimes free (advert supported).

Your average user is uploading a movie to YouTube and pictures to flickr and streaming movies. Most people don't even know what RAW is, and most people aren't ripping blu-rays and putting them on a NAS at home to stream to their BoxeeBox.

I'm not saying solutions aren't out there, but these are not things that will be easily or quickly solved. Further, these are things that will need to be solved before tablets can replace PCs for people that wish to use computers for more than just light email/web browsing. You're just going to reach a point were its far more cost/clutter effective to just buy a computer. You might say tablet will drop in price, but certainly a PC with greater performance will always be substantially cheaper.

I think those issues are already solved for the vast majority of users. I think the only thing holding a lot of people back is the fact they aren't in need of a refresh yet.

 

[goMac]

1) Thunderbolt is kinda bulky. USB3 might be option because its smaller than thunderbolt. But if you add thunderbolt to an iPad, its going to get substantially bigger. We don't even have USB2 on these now. So, do we see an iPad Pro, that is a little bigger but has some of this functionality? And how expensive will that be? At what point do you just want a laptop?

Not a huge problem. And I see different models of iPads, but no iPad Pro model.

Buy a $500 iPad, take it home, plug it into whatever Thunderbold peripherals (GPUs, CPUs, storage, etc) your heart desires.

2) Wireless keyboards have a huge appetite for batteries. I'm not sure many people would be too thrilled going through a costco pack of AAAs every couple months between a keyboard and mouse. And while you could charge them, that will add to the spiderweb of cables we're already talking about.

Didn't say wireless keyboards. Thunderbolt would imply wired keyboards and mice. It would be just like today's Thunderbolt display, maybe even that exact display.

3) Cloud storage is expensive and slow. I'm not exactly a photo or music nut, but I have easily 500GB of media and lately its been growing rapidly with two kids to take movie/photo of. Right now, 50GB of data is $100/year on Dropbox. The price would have to come down by a factor of 10 to be even remotely worth storing much on "the cloud". And by the time it does, how big will our media be? I already take home videos in 1080, and have a 12 MP Nikon that I sometimes wish to shot in RAW. What happens if we move away from disk storage of movies and to digital even more? Are we planning on just downloading movies and TV shows as we want to watch them even more? Our national bandwidth can't handle much more.

Didn't say cloud storage. Again, Thunderbolt.

I'm not saying solutions aren't out there, but these are not things that will be easily or quickly solved. Further, these are things that will need to be solved before tablets can replace PCs for people that wish to use computers for more than just light email/web browsing. You're just going to reach a point were its far more cost/clutter effective to just buy a computer. You might say tablet will drop in price, but certainly a PC with greater performance will always be substantially cheaper.

I think you're jumping to a lot of conclusions that don't apply.

It's also no accident that iOS shares the same driver system as OS X.

We're not there yet, but I think eventually iOS will be able to handle pros as well. We'll be the last group to migrate, but it will happen.

 

[wallysb01]

I think they would. If the smartphone market didn't exist, people would still be buying iPods at an increasing rate.

But people only need so many mp3 players. The reason the iPhone starting selling more, is because of the increased and novel functionality. If significant improvements aren't made, people don't need to keep buying the same thing. I mean, how many times do you buy a toaster? That's what an mp3 player would come to. At a certain point, its just small enough and has enough storage.

But the smartphone market does exist, and people no longer have any reason to buy an iPod when they have an iPhone. I haven't bought a single iPod since I got my iPhone.

And you'd be kind of crazy to, unless you just like the little tiny shuffle/nano. But that doesn't mean iPhone = iPod.

Not sure what the question is. iPad daily sales are already way past Mac, with no sign of stopping.

You lost the context then. The question is, will it peak and fall back down? This could happen because it gets replaced, or people do just "get over it". And if it does, you'll probably wish you did leave behind the steady seller.

Like I said, Windows 8 has already redesigned their APIs and GUI around tablets. It's too late to turn that ship around, and they're effectively abandoning desktops.

And they can't go back?

Now you're playing semantics. Why will it not be the iPad? Should we stop calling the Mac a Mac because it now ships with a UNIX OS that can multitask and Intel processors instead of the 68k?

This isn't semantics at all. You're drawing a likeness to the "evolution" of the iPod into the iPhone. Those are DIFFERENT THINGS! You want to equate them, at least in some fashion, but you're not willing to recognize how different they are and how that difference has allowed the iPhone to become the mega-seller it is. The point is, nothing can keep up this kind of growth without major changes in functionality. Something has to spur people to buy these things over and over. That's why PCs don't have this growth. Year to year, they aren't that different. So, to keep it up, the iPad will eventually have to evolve in functionality. Right now, it can eat into light computing tasks. But are you going to see, i don't know, an accountant working on a 60K line spreadsheet on it? Not now. So, how's it going to add functionality, and how is that added functionality going to effect the product in price, form, etc? It might even be totally novel functionality. It doesn't have to eat into what a PC does. I just don't see anyone giving answers to these questions. You just claim "thunderbolt" or "cloud" without really thinking it through.

It'll be a tablet called the iPad with more software capabilities than the current one, and improved hardware.

I don't think there is any reason to play semantics on that.

Ok, went over this above. What improvements, how? I just don't see it.

Imagine what you're seeing right now is Mac OS 1, and compare that to where Mac OS is today. Never said the iPad will go away, I said it will advance.

Right, it will advance. But just adding thunderbolt and multiple windows isn't the holy grail. If all it is, is a bigger iPad to allow thunderbolt, you have some major problems that don't just go away. For $500+, with no display, no GPU, no serious storage, limited RAM, plus the costs of TB in the peripherals you need, I don't see this replacing PC any time soon. And if you're thinking, well it will be an iPad with thunderbolt in 5 years so the costs drop to make it reasonable, well, we'll probably be on to the next thing by then. In 5 years went from the iPod to the iPad. Think early 2010 was the first iPad, what was the mobile tech world like in early '05? Was anyone predicting something like an iPad, even a MacBook Air? You're in position where you're forced to look so far ahead to solve these problems that you can't reliable predict the future any longer.

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Not a huge problem. And I see different models of iPads, but no iPad Pro model.

Buy a $500 iPad, take it home, plug it into whatever Thunderbold peripherals (GPUs, CPUs, storage, etc) your heart desires.

Right... Because right now, a display will cost your $1000. A GPU, I don't even know are prices out yet? Maybe another $500. A couple TB of HDD, another $1000. Thunderbolt has been around long enough now that we should have seen some larger price drops to count on this becoming a real solution in the near future. Right now, you're looking at $3000 for a pretty crummy computer.

Didn't say wireless keyboards. Thunderbolt would imply wired keyboards and mice. It would be just like today's Thunderbolt display, maybe even that exact display.

Didn't say cloud storage. Again, Thunderbolt.

But it does force your hand to then buy some sort of hub. And I wasn't responding to you. Not that you can't interject, but it was directed at someone that did mention wireless keyboards and cloud.

I think you're jumping to a lot of conclusions that don't apply.

Ok, you think that, but you kinda need to elaborate in order to have a meaningful discussion.

It's also no accident that iOS shares the same driver system as OS X.

We're not there yet, but I think eventually iOS will be able to handle pros as well. We'll be the last group to migrate, but it will happen.

There will always be the need for more. Technology will advance on the high end too and the need to use the high end tech will not go away. There is always more data, bigger files, faster computation times that people will have/want.

 

[goMac]

But people only need so many mp3 players. The reason the iPhone starting selling more, is because of the increased and novel functionality. If significant improvements aren't made, people don't need to keep buying the same thing. I mean, how many times do you buy a toaster? That's what an mp3 player would come to. At a certain point, its just small enough and has enough storage.

I don't agree. Again, if you add in the iPhone numbers, it's an increasing trend.

And you'd be kind of crazy to, unless you just like the little tiny shuffle/nano. But that doesn't mean iPhone = iPod.

Sure it does. Like I said, I stopped buying iPods because of my iPhone, and I know I'm not alone.

If my iPhone has a built in iPod, I no longer need an iPod.

You lost the context then. The question is, will it peak and fall back down? This could happen because it gets replaced, or people do just "get over it". And if it does, you'll probably wish you did leave behind the steady seller.

If we're going to play this game, how do you know the opposite won't happen and the Mac market is about to peak?

You don't. You're just throwing random things against the wall.

And they can't go back?

They can certainly try. But it would be like Apple releasing OS X, deciding it was a mistake two years in, and then trying to get developers back to OS 9.

This isn't semantics at all. You're drawing a likeness to the "evolution" of the iPod into the iPhone. Those are DIFFERENT THINGS!

Or we can say iPod Touch if that makes you feel better.

You want to equate them, at least in some fashion, but you're not willing to recognize how different they are and how that difference has allowed the iPhone to become the mega-seller it is. The point is, nothing can keep up this kind of growth without major changes in functionality. Something has to spur people to buy these things over and over. That's why PCs don't have this growth. Year to year, they aren't that different. So, to keep it up, the iPad will eventually have to evolve in functionality. Right now, it can eat into light computing tasks.

The iPad hardware isn't really going to evolve. It's about the software, stupid.

But are you going to see, i don't know, an accountant working on a 60K line spreadsheet on it? Not now. So, how's it going to add functionality, and how is that added functionality going to effect the product in price, form, etc? It might even be totally novel functionality. It doesn't have to eat into what a PC does. I just don't see anyone giving answers to these questions.

Same way they do now. With a monitor, keyboard, and mouse. Except on an iPad plugged into those things instead of a tower. When they are done, they unplug and it turns back into a tablet.

Really. It's not a complicated idea.

You just claim "thunderbolt" or "cloud" without really thinking it through.

It seems you can, however, you can claim the tablet market is going to collapse without thinking it through.

Right, it will advance. But just adding thunderbolt and multiple windows isn't the holy grail. If all it is, is a bigger iPad to allow thunderbolt, you have some major problems that don't just go away. For $500+, with no display, no GPU, no serious storage, limited RAM, plus the costs of TB in the peripherals you need, I don't see this replacing PC any time soon. And if you're thinking, well it will be an iPad with thunderbolt in 5 years so the costs drop to make it reasonable, well, we'll probably be on to the next thing by then. In 5 years went from the iPod to the iPad. Think early 2010 was the first iPad, what was the mobile tech world like in early '05? Was anyone predicting something like an iPad, even a MacBook Air? You're in position where you're forced to look so far ahead to solve these problems that you can't reliable predict the future any longer.

You're right, with only Thunderbolt how will you ever add storage or any additional capabilities to an iPad? And in since Flash storage will be stuck at 64 gigs for the next 5-10 years, I'm sure iPads will certainly not get any more storage ever.

That's certainly a brain teaser there.

Right... Because right now, a display will cost your $1000. A GPU, I don't even know are prices out yet? Maybe another $500. A couple TB of HDD, another $1000. Thunderbolt has been around long enough now that we should have seen some larger price drops to count on this becoming a real solution in the near future. Right now, you're looking at $3000 for a pretty crummy computer.

I know how annoyed I am tech prices never drop.

Edit: Wait a second? Since when did a couple of TB of hard drives cost $1000. If you really believe in 5 years you won't be able to pick up a Thunderbolt hard drive case at Frys for $50... well...

But it does force your hand to then buy some sort of hub. And I wasn't responding to you. Not that you can't interject, but it was directed at someone that did mention wireless keyboards and cloud.

You could buy a Mac Pro shaped hub/PCI breakout box if that made you feel better.

It's kind of odd the iPad is being held to a higher standard than the Mac Pro here. The Mac Pro isn't really a cable free machine either.

Ok, you think that, but you kinda need to elaborate in order to have a meaningful discussion.

Why? The disconnect here seems to be the part where you assume because the iPad has Thunderbolt you.... you know... would actually plug in Thunderbolt stuff.

There will always be the need for more. Technology will advance on the high end too and the need to use the high end tech will not go away. There is always more data, bigger files, faster computation times that people will have/want.

Sure, but eventually those additional resources that pros need will be at the other end of a Thunderbolt wire. They'll still be there.

Maybe you'll even put a 128 core Xeon box at the other end of the wire. But it won't actually be your computer, just a box of processors you use when you're at your desk.

 

[wallysb01]

I think the numbers are going to be very large.

Possible, but I don't think its at all certain.

I disagree. USB 2 is sufficent for most people, and I think you will see Thunderbolt shrink in physical size (or incorporate a dock) to make it feasible, probably sooner than later.

I'm not holding my breath for TB to shrink either. Apple might have something up its sleeve, but again, right now, I don't see it. And I don't think we should count on it.

No way. Wireless is currently standard on iMacs, and they sell pretty well. There are plenty of wireless keyboards out there.

And they crunch through batters. Maybe its just me, but I find their battery usage unacceptable. Between the mouse and keyboard, I used to go through maybe $5 of batteries a month. That's kind of ridiculous for what it is.

It's not for you (or me), but your average user it is fine and not terribly expensive and sometimes free (advert supported).

Your average user is uploading a movie to YouTube and pictures to flickr and streaming movies. Most people don't even know what RAW is, and most people aren't ripping blu-rays and putting them on a NAS at home to stream to their BoxeeBox.

Ok, maybe some of that is me, but I don't see myself too far away from the mean, at least among my age group (~30). I know a lot of people with WAY more storage requirements than I have. I guess, I know a lot more people with less, but usually it isn't as much of a difference as on the other end.

I think those issues are already solved for the vast majority of users. I think the only thing holding a lot of people back is the fact they aren't in need of a refresh yet.

Not with the current TB accessory pricing and even availability. If pricing was cut in half, maybe, but I don't think most people out there are really ready to let go of the PC entirely yet. Maybe tablets will keep people from refreashing PC purchases as soon, as they use them less. But its still a hassle to do a number of "everyday things" on a tablet. I guess I should say only a tablet, since part of the problem would be solved by a also having a wireless network with a server(PC!!!)/printer.

 

[goMac]

Not with the current TB accessory pricing and even availability. If pricing was cut in half, maybe, but I don't think most people out there are really ready to let go of the PC entirely yet. Maybe tablets will keep people from refreashing PC purchases as soon, as they use them less. But its still a hassle to do a number of "everyday things" on a tablet. I guess I should say only a tablet, since part of the problem would be solved by a also having a wireless network with a server(PC!!!)/printer.

The distinction is that pros (rightfully) are not ready to abandon the PC yet.

Average users? Who check email, surf the web, and post to Facebook? Most definitely they are abandoning the PC. Why should they buy a PC over a tablet? Tablet has a touch screen, less issues, and they can take it anywhere with them.

Heck, what do you think the average user would rather do an OS upgrade on? A PC or an iPad? For the PC, I'd say the average user wants to have to deal with the OS upgrade process "never".