Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend

[BKF]

Apple is wasting resources on iPhone and robbing from its hardware/software. Apple postponed Leopard for iPhone. It's not like we're pulling this idea out of our asses or something.

I think these definitions are too narrow, that these are fast becoming yesterday's distinctions, and that in fact "phone" is a misnomer. The iPhone is more computer than phone, and what your desktop's software and your phone's software have in common will be converging. Apple is now making the computer of the future, which happens also to make telephone calls, and they're just calling it a phone because, well, I don't know. Someone in marketing could tell us. Probably because more people shop for phones than for deck of cards-sized computers but, anyway, that's another discussion.

As for the number sold, activated, etc.: First came the breathless hype, now comes the hand-wringing, and tomorrow will come the continued advance of the phone. The phone is already such an incredible device, and all I can see for the product from here on out is it getting better, and also cheaper. I think it will go deep and wide before this is all over.

 

[michelle21]

actually, many people I've talked to don't want phones that do it all anymore.
even those that have smartphones/blackberries now.

)

sure if your 12 or you work at mcdonalds.


But in the corporate world, especially IT related, smart phones are not a luxery they are a neccessity.

- completey replace planners, franklin planners are rare if seen at all.

-- secure email , not monitored like some company email.

-- replace pagers.

-- tie directly into the companies exchange servers.

-- vpn access to the servers

Just some of the reasons.

And depending on the % you use for company business , you can deduct some of it as a business expense.

I own both a sprint 6800, pda phone and a iphone, the iphone replaces the sony t150 (unltralight but still a little bulky) notebook I carried around.

The iphone does most of the functions I used that for.


College campuses are also places to find smartphones, Iphones too but they are disquised as brown zunes (coolest ipod case I've seen) so NO ONE WILL want to steal one.

Music companies backing out of contracts will fail, just like when they tried to replace free downloads with paid subscription services.. some people never learn. And everything can be hacked...

 

[gr8tfly]

Apple is wasting resources on iPhone and robbing from its hardware/software. Apple postponed Leopard for iPhone. It's not like we're pulling this idea out of our asses or something.

Wasting resources? Like the iPhone OS-X team is working in a vacuum? Development is going to be shared, with a substantial portion coming directly from the OS-X team. The iPhone adds to Apple's resources, not drains. The project will benefit Leopard and we can only guess at what other projects.

 

[Daschund]

So what are people doing with many hundreds of thousands of iPhones then...doing modern art?

Some are doing this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg1ckCkm8YI

 

[Frisco]

Just wait until tomorrow.

I am sorry, bu the greed with only going with At&t exclusively will cost Apple big time.

This is such a big greedy blunder on Steve's part I think it may be time for him to resign.

 

[lOUDsCREAMEr]

screw att

 

[nyctravis]

First came the breathless hype, now comes the hand-wringing, and tomorrow will come the continued advance of the phone.

I agree. This morning I almost passed out from thinking that the iPhone was going to be a big flop. I have an iPhone & stood in line on the 29th to get one and have loved it since. As the day has gone on, I've come to think that perhaps this news will be good. The hype has gotten so high and expectations have grown with it that I think no matter what Apple does, people will be disappointed. In a way, this brings that bar down a bit and the iPhone can grow again.

In addition, I see this as a reality-check for Apple to address and incoporate features that are much needed and/or desired. Perhaps if sales aren't as astronimical as they expect, they might be more aggressive about upgrading it. For example, I would really like the ability to ditch my Palm but just can't right now as much of the software I use on it can't be used on the iPhone. For now I just use both. In addition, 3G would be nice, although I'm not clammoring for it like others are. The other features have already been addressed ad nauseum-but suffice it to say maybe Apple will aggressively address those issues faster now. Tomorrow will be the big newsmaker and I really hope we get some actual sales figures to put today's news into context. In the end, though, I really think the iPhone is a hit and it's just a matter of time to substantiate that.

 

[DakotaGuy]

Well, it's a GSM phone so you would have to be with T-mobile anyway. Why should they build a CDMA model when most of the world is on GSM? Even unlocked it wouldn't work with Verizon. If your palm treo works perfectly and was less, you weren't going to get an iPhone anyway so why complain? I doubt you have any real clout with Verizon.

There is only one reason that Apple is not offering a CDMA version of this phone and that is AT&T's 5 year exclusive contract. If there wasn't a 5 year contract, Apple would be building 2 versions of this phone like every other manufacturer does and more carriers would be selling it. As long as it is locked only to AT&T, it's sales and growth will be limited. You can't buy a phone if it does not have a good network in your area. Not everyone wants to be a customer of AT&T's. Just because Apple chose AT&T does not automatically make them the best cell provider in the United States.

 

[vansouza]

250 something posts

Can we just wait until Apple lets us all know what the sales figures are.... and remember it will be for just 30 hours of sales. In the mean time someone go find out what all the sales numbers were for crackberries and such for the first 30 hours. Then talk... the quarter sales that count is not the one that will be closed tonight but the one that closes in the next three months...

 

[kdarling]

There is only one reason that Apple is not offering a CDMA version of this phone and that is AT&T's 5 year exclusive contract. If there wasn't a 5 year contract, Apple would be building 2 versions of this phone like every other manufacturer does and more carriers would be selling it. As long as it is locked only to AT&T, it's sales and growth will be limited. ....

Exactly. Apple could've had the iPhone being sold by every carrier in the USA (under different model names, perhaps... or maybe not).

Instead they got greedy and wanted the subsidy we should've gotten as customers.

Now they're locked into AT&T in the US for years, and all that does is give incentive to the other carriers to match or beat it. Whether they can or not, is another question.

 

[iAmLegend]

Who would have thought the iPhone would cause a civil war among Apple fanatics?

By the way, explain to me how these sales figures in any way change the fact that this phone is awesome? I really wish all of you could share in the iPhone's glory...but at the end of the day, I could care less if anyone else owns one. I'm loving the hell out of this magnificent product.

 

[Frisco]

Instead they got greedy and wanted the subsidy we should've gotten as customers.

That's the sad truth that us fanboys don't want to admit. Unfortunately it is looking like greed will be the iPhones downfall. This will also hurt the Mac. I kind of negative Halo Effect.

Thanks Steve!

 

[skipdivils]

So many morons....

Don't mean to be rude, but there sure are a lot of morons out there. I mean, look at history. The ipod only sold about 125,000 units in its first quarter. It took a full year and a half to sell 1 million ipods. Then, after they reduced the prices, released more models, their sales took off, and they have now hit 100 million.

The iphone will reach 1 million units sold in its first quarter. That is a year and a quarter faster than it took the ipod to sell that amount. And that is with the first unit, which is overpriced, and underpacked with features. It will only be after a couple of years, when they have a few different models and prices are lower and the features are INSANE that this thing will REALLY take off.

I mean, imagine the day (in the not too distant future) when I can ichat with video any of my friends who also have an iphone and are in a wifi zone. Ichat isn't even on this phone yet, and the sales are still blowing away the initial ipod launch. Absolutely blowing them away.

Now, I know that it is the relationship to analysts estimates and the true sales numbers that affect the stock price, but these little one-day panics won't matter an ounce in the long run. And Apple's stock will continue to rise (and split) in the coming years as this new product line finds its legs.

Then, they will release their own line of LCD HD Televisions that have computers built in (and work seemlessly with the rest of their products) and it will be another new product line, and so on. The big picture here is that Apple is working towards being the end-to-end solution for your digital life. From photos, to phones, to TV shows and movies, to music. And this business plan has been paying off hansomely for them since they started along this path.

But you ain't seen nuthin' yet. Give them another 10 years, and they will own about 10% market share in the home computer, cell phone, media player device, Home TV industries. If you wanna do the math on that, you'd find that even $200 a share today would be a great buy for the long term.

My two cents....

 

[natasha69]

let me rephrase what ATT said -

in the first 30 hours of the weekend, excluding all of sunday, 147,000 iphones were activated.

• from this we know that at least 147,000 iphones sold that weekend.
• we do not know how many sold on sunday (estimates were for entire wknd)
• we do not know how many sold online - ummm...i didn't have time to stand in that line nor did i want to
• we know ATT downplayed the activation problems - 2% had to wait a few days, but i'm sure a huge majority were delayed at least until sunday early morning hours (1AM/2AM/etc)
• who cares about ebay/craigslist - see top 3 on this list

i think the street overreacted. i wonder how many phones were sold that weekend. i'll give you a hint - its more than 147k. =)

 

[panda]

brilliant posts -REAL figures- good news tomorrow?

been going thru the posts on this thread for some time tonight and can hardly keep up.

they've been brilliant. some of what has already been rightly pointed out will inadvertantly be mentioned again here. some is new.

not much to add, but i am interested in the negative reaction to at&t's activation figures (as viewed by the share price decline today) and how it will impact the response to apple's financials due out tomorrow. hopefully, this is 'all' the bad news and apple will blow away all the now 'lowered' expectaions tomorrow.

the 146k activation figure seems obviously low when compared to the 300k-700k figure -for the weekend- that have been on people's minds. but as these are only activation figures and for for what is basically only 1 day, it is safe to assume that sales were considerably more. my own guess would be that at least 2x that amount were actually sold the first weekend in apple's and at&t's shops, especially when one takes sunday into account and adds in the phones not physically activated by saturday night. to be added to that would be the phones sold thru apple's web store and others... and thus we might easily end up with 500k+ , just for the first weekend of sales after all!

so WHY would at&t even want to show this figure?

obviously they would only disclose the figure if they thought it to be positive, since they are under no obligation to do so.

and no, they would not show phones sold, since 1) they do not show apple's sales and 2) they are (only) interested in the number of subscibers. or more importantly the number of NEW subscriptions.

what this activation figure clearly shows is that they added 146k subscriptions in basically 1 day.

so in fact, they added 1/10 of the new subscriptions that they added for the whole quarter, in just 1 day (seeing as they added ca 1500k for the whole quarter) and 40% of them are new customers !!!!

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200707240902DOWJONESDJONLINE000295_FORTUNE5.htm

and that for a new phone, from a new supplier, that costs more than any of their other phones !!!!

it is also stated that contrary to the analyst's opinion about slow carry-thru sales, at&t is positive about the continuing strong sales. so rather than being disappointed about the 146k figure, this calls for some celebration.

now, having seen how negative the reaction has been to these first REAL, but INCOMPLETE figures, what is apple to do tomorrow?

my guess is, that like it or not, apple needs to put the shine back on the iphone and reverse this -new but wrong- perception that the iphone is underwhelming. thus apple will give some REAL figures of its own. especially as it is safe to assume that based on the terrific initial response to the iphone, both in the press and thru consumer feedback, the initial sales have been strong. and certainly much stronger than a first look at at&t's activation figures would wrongly suggest.

one thing's for sure, apple cannot just present its financials and not mention the iphone. if anything, today's release of 'incomplete' figures have assured us of that.

lest we forget something crucial here... the decision to make the iphone was not an elective... it was mandatory, as a way to counter the ever-growing popularity of music-playing phones that would start chipping away at ipod's music dominance.

apple has more riding on the iphone being sucessful than 'just' creating a new business segment.

and if my estimates are correct, at&t's activation figures aren't a negative, but a confirmation of the iphone's initial success.

go go apple

 

[aristobrat]

Now they're locked into AT&T in the US for years, and all that does is give incentive to the other carriers to match or beat it. Whether they can or not, is another question.

I guess if you mean give incentive to Sprint, Verizon and T-Mobile to hope that one of their phone manufacturers happens to come up with something that matches or beats the iPhone (since the carriers themselves don't design and produce phones)...

 

[DakotaGuy]

Don't mean to be rude, but there sure are a lot of morons out there. I mean, look at history. The ipod only sold about 125,000 units in its first quarter. It took a full year and a half to sell 1 million ipods. Then, after they reduced the prices, released more models, their sales took off, and they have now hit 100 million.

The iphone will reach 1 million units sold in its first quarter. That is a year and a quarter faster than it took the ipod to sell that amount. And that is with the first unit, which is overpriced, and underpacked with features. It will only be after a couple of years, when they have a few different models and prices are lower and the features are INSANE that this thing will REALLY take off.

One huge difference with the iPod and the iPhone is that everyone can buy an iPod and it will work for them. Not everyone is going to jump to AT&T. There are millions and millions of Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile and Alltel customers, not to mention other smaller providers. You assume that everyone is just going to jump from their carrier to AT&T because of a phone. There are different reasons why people stay with the provider they have. A lot has to do with how the network works at your house or which provider has the best plan. There are 8-10 states or so (either part or whole) where AT&T does not even do business.

Anyhow I think comparing the iPod to the iPhone is really a case of comparing Apples to Oranges. The iPod did not have a limiting factor the way the iPhone does. Well I guess the first iPod was limited by being Mac only, but that was fixed fairly quick. The iPhone is locked with one provider for 5 years and choosing your provider is just as important if not more important then choosing your phone.

 

[aristobrat]

Betcha if Apple had picked a carrier that worked well for you, you'd not be making that point.

 

[Krevnik]

Exactly. Apple could've had the iPhone being sold by every carrier in the USA (under different model names, perhaps... or maybe not).

Instead they got greedy and wanted the subsidy we should've gotten as customers.

Now they're locked into AT&T in the US for years, and all that does is give incentive to the other carriers to match or beat it. Whether they can or not, is another question.

It wasn't just money Apple wanted, they wanted a fair amount of control on the device. Up until now, no Mobile Operator has said:

- Yes, we will let you update your device without /us/ providing the download.
- Yes, we will let you brand the phone without our logo all over it.

Mobile operators also love to keep devices exclusive, usually via 6-month contracts with the device manufacturer. Apple would not have gotten any other MO to let them sell the iPhone to everyone at once, and they would not have gotten the two things above, even with a 6-month or 1-year exclusivity contract.

Really, what this shows is that Apple was really wanting to get into the market, with some terms they weren't going to be flexible on, and they had to give up a fair amount to do it.

 

[skipdivils]

One huge difference with the iPod and the iPhone is that everyone can buy an iPod and it will work for them. Not everyone is going to jump to AT&T. There are millions and millions of Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile and Alltel customers, not to mention other smaller providers. You assume that everyone is just going to jump from their carrier to AT&T because of a phone. There are different reasons why people stay with the provider they have. A lot has to do with how the network works at your house or which provider has the best plan. There are 8-10 states or so (either part or whole) where AT&T does not even do business.

Anyhow I think comparing the iPod to the iPhone is really a case of comparing Apples to Oranges. The iPod did not have a limiting factor the way the iPhone does. Well I guess the first iPod was limited by being Mac only, but that was fixed fairly quick. The iPhone is locked with one provider for 5 years and choosing your provider is just as important if not more important then choosing your phone.

I agree with you, it is apples and oranges. But more important than your point is that the cell phone market is 10 times bigger than the digital media device market, so they only need a fraction of the market share that the ipod has to achieve the same (or higher) sales numbers. So people can stay with their carrier, and the iphone can still WHIP the ipod in TOTAL sales, with only those that switch for the phone.

 

[macidiot]

While this statement may be somewhat true, If I need a new bag for my Hoover I can get one made by Hoover, or one made by any number of other manufactures, can you say the same with Apple Products and parts?

The idea of just going with one provider is a bad one on Apples part, it will come to bite them in the butt later. I would of thought of getting an iPhone if I could stay with Verizon where I have been for nearly 10 years. Iwill not give up that kind of clout I have with my provider just to get a new gadget, my Palm Treo works perfectly thank you and it did not cost me nearly as much.




Well I am going by the reports from AT&T and Apple. So if you want to say that the providers of teh phone and service are lying about it, is that really much better?

First, yes. You can buy any sort of RAM, hard drive, monitor, etc. that you want. It doesn't have to be from Apple. You can buy 3rd party batteries for the iPod.

And second, given the history of AT&T, would you really trust them on anything? They were the ones that first reported massive sales. Not to mention the fact that they freely allowed customers privacy to be infringed (in the form of wiretapping and divulging call records) without notifying said customers.

 

[aristobrat]

I would of thought of getting an iPhone if I could stay with Verizon where I have been for nearly 10 years. Iwill not give up that kind of clout I have with my provider just to get a new gadget, my Palm Treo works perfectly thank you and it did not cost me nearly as much.

How much clout do you have with Verizon? Enough to get an unlimited data plan for $20.00/month? Unless you've negotiated that, then your $200 Treo + your 2x as expensive VZA PDA data plan will end up costing you $480 extra in data charges at the end of a 2 year contract, making it probably more expensive than an iPhone.

 

[BKF]

It wasn't just money Apple wanted, they wanted a fair amount of control on the device.

Right on. It's about control to build a true Apple phone. It's control, control, control. This is our Steve we're talking about here.

And I mean that in a good way.

 

[rtdunham]

...Yet we all know from actual visits and the news, that most had only 40-80 units a day... if even that, since many were "sold out" the first day.

I'm not sure that data's correct. I visited the Hilton Head Island, SC AT&T store, shortly after it opened for sales june 29. There were about 100 people in line. The store employee who spoke to the group i was standing with indicated they had around 75 units to sell that day. This is a pretty small-market store; if that number even approximated the truth (I didn't stick around to see) then it would seem silly to conclude Apple's own stores would have that many or less. I've seen a lot of other suspect numbers in this thread, too: one person cites news reports of 2% activation problems; another speculates maybe it was 20%.

My predictions:
1) Tomorrow's financial report from Apple won't tell us as much as we want to know about iPhone sales.
2) The stock will either go up or down tomorrow, based on factors none of us can really predict.

 

[jrudmin]

3.03 per second?

Does this mean 3 new people signed up w/ AT&T per second during that time?