Umm not really
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070630-iphones-iplenty-the-sell-out-that-wasnt.html
I went into the Apple store the following week after launch. they had plenty in stock.
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Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend
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Umm not really
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070630-iphones-iplenty-the-sell-out-that-wasnt.html
I went into the Apple store the following week after launch. they had plenty in stock.
I think the iPhone is a great product and is no doubt very popular. The initial rush to get them was probably a little over-hyped, however it's Apple so people knew it was going to be good.
Anyhow this product has received a lot of press, however I don't really think it is going to be the consumer electronic product craze of the year. That honor goes to the Nintendo Wii. Those things are still selling out a few hours after a store gets a shipment. They are still bringing a $50-100 premium on eBay 8 months after release. I bought mine back in March and it was not an easy task to find one then and still seems to be somewhat difficult.
I think the iPhone will actually be the electronic product craze of 2008. It is going to take a little while to really get the wheels moving. I don't know if it will ever be as popular as the iPod has become, but I think it will do very well in the end.
Agree with Aber about one thing.
Apple is IMO very good at adapting to its problems.
2008 will be the best financial year for the iPhone
Apple is IMO very good at adapting to its problems.
2008 will be the best financial year for the iPhone
You just stop right there buddy. You are making way too much sense, and that s not what most of these people are here for.
Not bad after all
Lets have a closer look at the 146k number.
So the phone was released on a Friday at 6pm and the sales figures include the 3 or so hour period on that Friday and the whole of Saturday.
It excludes all the sales that happend when registration failed or took a while.
Unless you are in a big city with an Apple store you were just not able to get your hands on a phone that weekend. I live in Colorado and am 150 miles from Denver. The closest ATT store is 120 miles in Gand Junction (start your triangulation engines and give me my GPS coordinates)
The local ATT store had 20 iPhones. If one assumes 2000 ATT stores at 20 each that gives only 40k units. That said the 100+ apple stores sold the rest. So 1000 phones sold per Apple store.
Now the question is what percent of the population lives anywhere near an Apple store and botheres to stand in line. My guess is that only about 30% of the population is near enough to an Apple store to bother stopping by.
That would translate into a 300k unit demand that was not and could not be fullfilled that weekend. So if one assumes that everybody that wanted an iPhone that was living near an Apple store got his phone then there were 300k people that could not get theirs. If that was all demand there was it would translate to about 500k units !
But sure enough there are people that live near an Apple store that did not buy their iPhones that first day (+3hours). So if one assumes that only half the people bothered going to buy their iPhones right there that would translate to an overall 1m units.
So my "guess" is that 1m units have been sold so far as availability increases and people's Apple Store orders are getting filed.
Lets have a closer look at the 146k number.
So the phone was released on a Friday at 6pm and the sales figures include the 3 or so hour period on that Friday and the whole of Saturday.
It excludes all the sales that happend when registration failed or took a while.
Unless you are in a big city with an Apple store you were just not able to get your hands on a phone that weekend. I live in Colorado and am 150 miles from Denver. The closest ATT store is 120 miles in Gand Junction (start your triangulation engines and give me my GPS coordinates)
The local ATT store had 20 iPhones. If one assumes 2000 ATT stores at 20 each that gives only 40k units. That said the 100+ apple stores sold the rest. So 1000 phones sold per Apple store.
Now the question is what percent of the population lives anywhere near an Apple store and botheres to stand in line. My guess is that only about 30% of the population is near enough to an Apple store to bother stopping by.
That would translate into a 300k unit demand that was not and could not be fullfilled that weekend. So if one assumes that everybody that wanted an iPhone that was living near an Apple store got his phone then there were 300k people that could not get theirs. If that was all demand there was it would translate to about 500k units !
But sure enough there are people that live near an Apple store that did not buy their iPhones that first day (+3hours). So if one assumes that only half the people bothered going to buy their iPhones right there that would translate to an overall 1m units.
So my "guess" is that 1m units have been sold so far as availability increases and people's Apple Store orders are getting filed.
the only "problem" here is that the 146k number is being used by anti-iphone zealots to justify their grumpiness over the iPhone.
The only thing it does is verify that AT&T had a lot of activation problems when the iPhone launched. And that fact was already well known.
The only thing it does is verify that AT&T had a lot of activation problems when the iPhone launched. And that fact was already well known.
Well the one that came with the mac pro sucks, the one I added to use instead is malfunctioning, and the new one doesn't work in boot camp.
I do video production sometimes though, and it's nice burning 2 things at once.
Tell me: what part of the iphone OS is going to make it into leopard?
Everything is just OS X scaled down. The OS X team ported OS X to the iphone and took out a bunch of features.
I really don't think it's going to do anything but continue to rob developers from OS X for mac to work for OS X for iphone.
Apple ADMITTED they delayed leopard for iphone, the debate is over, isn't it? Apple over extended themselves to get the iphone out on time and every mac user is suffering for it (apart from those who bought iphones, I guess).
When leopard comes out, it's going to be no better than it would have been if the iphone had not been around.
All I'm saying is: this iphone is not going to be a the biggest cash-cow for Apple, not so much as macs have been and continue to be. I hope they get back in gear on their real innovative and successful products and stop sacrificing them to jump into new markets. I realize this phase is probably over for Apple, but I figure it's worth mentioning, in light of this isn't exactly a runaway product.
The "problem" isn't any problems getting the phone activated, the "problem" is lots of people buying an iPhone on Saturday, and not running home and activating it as fast as they could, but waiting until Sunday morning.
You really aren't buying 146,000. Are you?
One thing you can count on Apple for is Showman ship. Steve Jobs didn't want ATT to get the glory of announcing the sales numbers, so he had them announce the "Activation" numbers, knowing quite well that such a number wouldn't harm the stock of a huge company like ATT. But when the sales figures come out on Apple's earnings announcement, I think they may find another sale or two. What about:
The 10,000 iPhones that were offered on eBay. Certainly not activated.
The iPhones ordered online and shipped a few days later. Certainly not activated.
Those who had several day delays because they were switching carriers. Certainly not activated before Saturday night.
Apple's sales number will likely be much higher.
But the most important number will be the kickback that Apple get for each iPhone sold. Rumored to be $200 per phone from ATT. Let's look at the numbers:
1. A profit margin of $300 per iPhone sold.
2. A $200 kickback per iPhone.
Net result: $0 cost per 4GB iPhone for Apple, $100 cost per 8GB iPhone.
Now if you had a cell phone that cost you between $0 and $100 to make, wouldn't you lower the cost for, say, Christmas and invite sales to explode to the masses? Of course you would. After all, by Christmas you would have all the kinks worked out.
What's the point in selling a iPhone closer to your cost? Why of course its the $9/month/subscriber. That's $108 per year for at least 2 years!
At $108/year how many of the hundreds of millions of cell phone subscribers do you think Apple will want to sign up? Not to mention selling them music, movies, and TV shows through iTunes. Oh, and while I'm at it, why not rent them movies through AppleTV?
You don't think Steve Jobs became a billionaire by accident, do you?
Am I the only person on the planet that finds it odd that ATT would announce the activation numbers and not the sales numbers? Sounds like a setup to me.
One thing you can count on Apple for is Showman ship. Steve Jobs didn't want ATT to get the glory of announcing the sales numbers, so he had them announce the "Activation" numbers, knowing quite well that such a number wouldn't harm the stock of a huge company like ATT. But when the sales figures come out on Apple's earnings announcement, I think they may find another sale or two. What about:
The 10,000 iPhones that were offered on eBay. Certainly not activated.
The iPhones ordered online and shipped a few days later. Certainly not activated.
Those who had several day delays because they were switching carriers. Certainly not activated before Saturday night.
Apple's sales number will likely be much higher.
But the most important number will be the kickback that Apple get for each iPhone sold. Rumored to be $200 per phone from ATT. Let's look at the numbers:
1. A profit margin of $300 per iPhone sold.
2. A $200 kickback per iPhone.
Net result: $0 cost per 4GB iPhone for Apple, $100 cost per 8GB iPhone.
Now if you had a cell phone that cost you between $0 and $100 to make, wouldn't you lower the cost for, say, Christmas and invite sales to explode to the masses? Of course you would. After all, by Christmas you would have all the kinks worked out.
What's the point in selling a iPhone closer to your cost? Why of course its the $9/month/subscriber. That's $108 per year for at least 2 years!
At $108/year how many of the hundreds of millions of cell phone subscribers do you think Apple will want to sign up? Not to mention selling them music, movies, and TV shows through iTunes. Oh, and while I'm at it, why not rent them movies through AppleTV?
You don't think Steve Jobs became a billionaire by accident, do you?
Am I the only person on the planet that finds it odd that ATT would announce the activation numbers and not the sales numbers? Sounds like a setup to me.
I'm not sure what you mean by a $100 cost. Don't you mean a $500 profit after ATT gives Apple its cut?
ATT wouldn't announce sale of units; they don't have access to all iPhone sold, as some were sold at Apple stores. ATT can only announce activation numbers, as they have complete control of this.
Henry T Ford famously said when embarking on a massive project to mass produce the automobile : 'If I asked my customers what they wanted they would tell me a faster horse'...
That's exactly what we have today. The public still doesn't even know if it wants email in their pocket never mind the rest of the stuff!.
It will take 1-3 years before the significance of the product is realized en mass, but this will give Apple time to fully refine it to the point of being the 21st centuries new 'portable Model T Ford'.
Once again, as with the original mac and as with the ipod, all other companies are playing catchup whilst Apple is firmly in the technological lead in a product direction the world doesn't even know why it wants it yet.
We had the same in 1984 with the Original Macintosh, we have the same now.
I only hope it's not killed by price gouging as was the original mac.
That's exactly what we have today. The public still doesn't even know if it wants email in their pocket never mind the rest of the stuff!.
It will take 1-3 years before the significance of the product is realized en mass, but this will give Apple time to fully refine it to the point of being the 21st centuries new 'portable Model T Ford'.
Once again, as with the original mac and as with the ipod, all other companies are playing catchup whilst Apple is firmly in the technological lead in a product direction the world doesn't even know why it wants it yet.
We had the same in 1984 with the Original Macintosh, we have the same now.
I only hope it's not killed by price gouging as was the original mac.
No you don't, and that's probably why the US are stuck with horrible service and 18th century mobile phone technology. In Europe you don't usually have proprietary phones with carriers (maybe in the UK but they are more US than EU), and the market here is great.
As for electricity, I don't know if any country in the western world would like to be stuck with the US infrastructure and their constant risk of blackouts, or even worse entire states having to buy from ENRON. US type monopoly? No thanks. Not even from Apple or ATT.
As for EDGE technology, even UMTS is getting very old. They are starting a new service in Italy and other parts of Europe with upload speeds of 1.4mbs.
My suspicion is that this is Apple cleverly playing with your minds!
I think they sold 500,000, but people have been getting carried away with numbers arround 700,000 or even 1,000,000.
As an event organiser I use a similar tactic, I hype it up, then hype it down at last second so as to not dissapoint.
Its like going to watch a film when everyone tells you is AMAZING, then you watch it and often feel disappointed no matter how good the film was. But if people told you the film was rubbish, and you have already bought a ticket to see it, you would walk out of the cinema much more upbeat about the film.
So, back to Apple, if I was in their situation, i would think "ooh lets ask ATT to release activation stats just before the wednesdays results". Reverse hyping it so it sounds like Apple is doing very bad in sales, then when the true number of 500,000 hits later today, everyone breaths a sigh of relief, the stock bounces back, except minus the overhyped delusion.
Which if wasnt taken care of, may have affected share price wednesday with no particular reason to bounce back, as everyone walks out of the cinema complaining the film(Apple) didnt live up to the hype.
I think they sold 500,000, but people have been getting carried away with numbers arround 700,000 or even 1,000,000.
As an event organiser I use a similar tactic, I hype it up, then hype it down at last second so as to not dissapoint.
Its like going to watch a film when everyone tells you is AMAZING, then you watch it and often feel disappointed no matter how good the film was. But if people told you the film was rubbish, and you have already bought a ticket to see it, you would walk out of the cinema much more upbeat about the film.
So, back to Apple, if I was in their situation, i would think "ooh lets ask ATT to release activation stats just before the wednesdays results". Reverse hyping it so it sounds like Apple is doing very bad in sales, then when the true number of 500,000 hits later today, everyone breaths a sigh of relief, the stock bounces back, except minus the overhyped delusion.
Which if wasnt taken care of, may have affected share price wednesday with no particular reason to bounce back, as everyone walks out of the cinema complaining the film(Apple) didnt live up to the hype.
Ouch, i'd hate to come to any of your events
Apple are not 'down hyping' their own results to cause a stock hike, when we know full well that 'down hyping' downs AAPL, and AAPL's volatility exists on hype alone anyway, ever since iPhone.
The idea that a company would ask another company to spread FUD against them just for 'relief' factor when true figures are released is crazy.
((Hmm... my stock is at $10. Let's hype it up to $15 on rumored results, but then spread FUD and get it down to $5, so that i can see a $5-rise to $10! Yay! Now i'm where i was, only the market looks volatile and no-one wants to invest in my company anymore...))
A cynical Much Ado, waiting for results, relying on fundamentals.
Ouch, i'd hate to come to any of your events
Your missing out! No seriously you are
Its a technique that works extremely well, I get people hyped up about an event whilst still withholding much information(much like Apple does). Nothing can exceed expectations of the unknown (like opening xmas presents). But if you downplay it at the last minute, you still keep the element of surprise. Mess peoples heads up, create more publicity, and deliver a great product which meets expectations and more.
Thing is THEY didnt hype it up to be "$15", THEY just wanted hype, and people got carried away and invented the "$15" up for themselves.
Apple like to exceed expectations, hence why they always underestimate earnings, the element of surprise, increased publicity and hype.
Not that number again.
There is no $300 profit margin. There is a difference between the cost of building an iPhone and the end customer sales price, but that is _not_ margin. "Gross margin" is how much Apple benefits from the sale of each iPhone; that has to take into account shipping, cost of selling it, support, warranty replacements, cost of activation, and so on. That all comes out of gross margin. Then there is profit: That takes into account development cost, cost of advertisements, all the cost related to the iPhone that is there whether or not you buy an iPhone.
30% gross margin and 10% profit would be excellent.
I find it funny how many people here are hurt so much by the truth. Face it the iPhone sales where massively and I mean MASSIVELY over hyped and I would say at MOST 200k units where sold. Lets also look at other facts that there has been a long history of apple products being over hype in how good they are. Even more so in how well they sell. This is just another one to add to that very fast growing list.
Truth hurts don't it.
Truth hurts don't it.
To be fair, this figure (146K for the first day and a half) is roughly in line with many analysts' original estimates, working out at roughly 250K sales for the first weekend.
It was only when analysts bought into the launch weekend frenzy that they revised their guesstimates dramatically upwards (one even from 350K to 700K); thus making the shortfall more marked.
It's a good reminder of how fickle/fragile the market is. Investors buy into a product hype, and raise estimates dramatically. The iPhone, even though it was one of the most successful phone launches ever, fails to meet these goals, and Apple shares take a nosedive. (..which in turn contributed to ripples of doubt throughout the market, and so on..)
That said, these figures aren't inspiring if Apple hope to reach 10m by the end of 2008.
It was only when analysts bought into the launch weekend frenzy that they revised their guesstimates dramatically upwards (one even from 350K to 700K); thus making the shortfall more marked.
It's a good reminder of how fickle/fragile the market is. Investors buy into a product hype, and raise estimates dramatically. The iPhone, even though it was one of the most successful phone launches ever, fails to meet these goals, and Apple shares take a nosedive. (..which in turn contributed to ripples of doubt throughout the market, and so on..)
That said, these figures aren't inspiring if Apple hope to reach 10m by the end of 2008.
Oh. Like how the iPod sold. By that statement, you obviously don't have a clue what you're talking about and are going to be looking very silly by tomorrow. Sales for Friday alone will be over 200K.