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Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend
- Thread starter Grimace
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Betcha if Apple had picked a carrier that worked well for you, you'd not be making that point.
But someone else would be...
True AT&T does not do business in my state, but I seriously doubt that I am the only person that is better served by a different provider then AT&T.
yes, it was fixed with the ipod very quickly ....does anyone in here think two years is very quickly?
FYI, I actually know about stocks. Feel free to search on my posts here about my Apple stock price targets. You'll find I've been far more accurate than oh, 100% of the "professional" stock analysts.
I find it highly unlikely for Apple stock to be at 500 in 3.5 years. 300, possibly. That would mean Apple would have to average a 30+% return. Possible, but extremely difficult. 500 is completely absurd. That would make Apple as big as General Electric.
Why?
In one or two years, the iPod story will be over. They will still sell plenty of them, but the growth will slow to 10-15%.
Mac share will probably increase by 4%. About 6-8 billion in revenue.
Final Cut, Motion, whatever, is small potatoes. Even if they took 100% of that market, Apple is so big it wouldn't really do much for their bottom line.
AppleTV? Whatever. I doubt it will ever be as big as the iPod. At best it adds what, a billion to the bottom line?
For Apple stock to hit 500, it will need to more than triple revenue and earnings. Where exactly are they going to come up with another 50 billion in sales? Looking above, I see about 10 billion or so in growth. So that means the iPhone is going to be a 40 billion dollar product in 3 years?
Past performance is no indicator of future performance. And Apple is bumping up against the rule of big numbers. It is easy to go from 1 billion to 2 billion in revenue. Not so easy to go from 20 billion to 40 billion.
yes, it was fixed with the ipod very quickly ....does anyone in here think two years is very quickly?
Well 2 is less then 5.
Does Cellular One / Dobson Communications cover South Dakota? If so, you're covered: ATT agreed to buy them just before the iPhone launched.
And don't forget... they are an absolute requirement for any meeting. How on earth would people survive those inane meetings if they didn't have a smart phone to surf the web or text friends?
Unfortunately they don't. In South Dakota we have 3 choices. Verizon, Alltel and Sprint. I would avoid Sprint because if you leave the cities or the Interstate the reception gets poor so basically it is between Verizon and Alltel.
We did have a company that was called Cellular One, however that was Western Wireless and Alltel bought them. Cellular One is a brand name that is used by a few different regional providers.
Anyhow I don't expect Apple to cater to anyone in the rural areas. They are more of an urban lifestyle company, however I just think it would have been nice to have different options on providers. I don't think anyone would have objected if you could choose a different provider.
There's a highly technical reason you only get coverage in cities and interstates. It's cause you live in South Dakota.
well arent we a little bitter and jealous. Arent all those companies are cdma wireless providers, so obviously gsm isnt out there yet. Wow, you must luve OUT there. How do you even have internet?
******this message was sent via iPhone...hahaha*****
Thats kind of low...I put it atleast 500k units.....maybe Apple should have sold the iPhone unlocked, with no network?
Maybe it would up the launch numbers, as importers, T Mobile users, and any other GSM users....but then they risk people missing the iPhone because its not in the AT&T/T-Mobile store, when they go to upgrade.
And of course the mess mess service plans
Maybe it would up the launch numbers, as importers, T Mobile users, and any other GSM users....but then they risk people missing the iPhone because its not in the AT&T/T-Mobile store, when they go to upgrade.
And of course the mess mess service plans
This will change!
Well, whatever the numbers are, watch for another surge after they release this first update that my friend showed me from Apple. MMS, Finder, and he said other things that aren't apparent from this main menu pic that have been demanded. Can't wait, I'll be buying mine after it's released!!!
Well, whatever the numbers are, watch for another surge after they release this first update that my friend showed me from Apple. MMS, Finder, and he said other things that aren't apparent from this main menu pic that have been demanded.
Can't wait, I'll be buying mine after it's released!!!Attachments
Well, whatever the numbers are, watch for another surge after they release this first update that my friend showed me from Apple. MMS, Finder, and he said other things that aren't apparent from this main menu pic that have been demanded.
Dude, Don't screw around.
Only hours away from reality
Alright, let's look at this again. Forget all the silly and uninformed comments about Apple picking the wrong carrier and that Apple is greedy... and all the other fluff, such as Apple is abandoning OS X, the Mac etc.
So, we have been informed that ATT activated 146,000 iPhones in less than 30 hours. If you consider that from about 9pm to midnight on Friday and 6am to midnight Saturday, people were probably activating phones--- that means TWO phones a second!! Bloody hell, folks, that is HUGE, no matter that SIX per second were predicted!!! Name another item that "activated" at the rate of 2 per sec for 22 hours! (Don't mention Harry Potter!)
Then, you have the economic model that has been hinted at. Possibly a $170 per phone subsidy from ATT to Apple. Add the average of $7 a month per subscriber paid by ATT to Apple for 2 years. Those numbers cover Apple's costs of a rumoured $220 to manufacture. That leaves an ATT surplus to Apple of $120 per phone after the cost of manufacture. That means that an average sale price of about $575 per sale is actually PURE PROFIT in addition to the $120 left over from the ATT subsidy. IF... IF, these numbers are correct, Apple is MAKING almost $700 per iPhone.
Now, it is entirely possible that all the rumours are wrong. We might know tomorrow, but it they are not and Apple sells 10 million phones by the end of say 24 months (and that is even less than Apple said it wanted), that is 10,000,000 x 700 OR 7 billion dollars over 24 months--- PROFIT!!!!
Clearly, the iPhone will drop in price and ATT will likely not want to renew that contract after 5 years, but in the meantime, all Verizon can do is WEEP because the value of that contract to ATT is priceless and worth every cent that they "gave up" to Apple. Only time will tell if the supposed contracts are true... even if they are not, Apple has a huge hit on its hands that the decriers of the iPhone just don't get.
A flop it is not and not likely to be. SJ would NEVER let that happen with such a prize. He will "contract" it to its pinnacle of runaway success.
Meanwhile, the so called idiot analysts who have written the negative crap today, will for certain, through all manner of manipulations, make a TON of money from dropping Apple's share price as it blasts through the $150 mark in the next few weeks. This was a calculated manipulation of the market with massive profit taking, puts galore, selling short and raping, er, reaping the benefits. Clever folks indeed.
Alright, let's look at this again. Forget all the silly and uninformed comments about Apple picking the wrong carrier and that Apple is greedy... and all the other fluff, such as Apple is abandoning OS X, the Mac etc.
So, we have been informed that ATT activated 146,000 iPhones in less than 30 hours. If you consider that from about 9pm to midnight on Friday and 6am to midnight Saturday, people were probably activating phones--- that means TWO phones a second!! Bloody hell, folks, that is HUGE, no matter that SIX per second were predicted!!! Name another item that "activated" at the rate of 2 per sec for 22 hours! (Don't mention Harry Potter!)
Then, you have the economic model that has been hinted at. Possibly a $170 per phone subsidy from ATT to Apple. Add the average of $7 a month per subscriber paid by ATT to Apple for 2 years. Those numbers cover Apple's costs of a rumoured $220 to manufacture. That leaves an ATT surplus to Apple of $120 per phone after the cost of manufacture. That means that an average sale price of about $575 per sale is actually PURE PROFIT in addition to the $120 left over from the ATT subsidy. IF... IF, these numbers are correct, Apple is MAKING almost $700 per iPhone.
Now, it is entirely possible that all the rumours are wrong. We might know tomorrow, but it they are not and Apple sells 10 million phones by the end of say 24 months (and that is even less than Apple said it wanted), that is 10,000,000 x 700 OR 7 billion dollars over 24 months--- PROFIT!!!!
Clearly, the iPhone will drop in price and ATT will likely not want to renew that contract after 5 years, but in the meantime, all Verizon can do is WEEP because the value of that contract to ATT is priceless and worth every cent that they "gave up" to Apple. Only time will tell if the supposed contracts are true... even if they are not, Apple has a huge hit on its hands that the decriers of the iPhone just don't get.
A flop it is not and not likely to be. SJ would NEVER let that happen with such a prize. He will "contract" it to its pinnacle of runaway success.
Meanwhile, the so called idiot analysts who have written the negative crap today, will for certain, through all manner of manipulations, make a TON of money from dropping Apple's share price as it blasts through the $150 mark in the next few weeks. This was a calculated manipulation of the market with massive profit taking, puts galore, selling short and raping, er, reaping the benefits. Clever folks indeed.
And seriously, you're such a good guy that this doesn't make you upset, that you paid about $400 more than you needed to, just so Apple could make more profit than any other phone manufacturer?
The least Apple could do, is give a share or two of their stock to everyone who bought an iPhone
oh?
While I would take any account of an expert, all the previously published data suggests what I wrote is possible-- am I perfectly happy to have you explain otherwise ahead of Apple's official explanation come from you? you bet...
And to kdarling-- nope, if this is all true, I am not the least bit upset as it goes to Apple's bottom line. In time, the lower prices will allow many more people into the fold but as long as the hype creates a "must have" desirability at "any price" I am delighted. That is free enterprise working at its best.
While I would take any account of an expert, all the previously published data suggests what I wrote is possible-- am I perfectly happy to have you explain otherwise ahead of Apple's official explanation come from you? you bet...
And to kdarling-- nope, if this is all true, I am not the least bit upset as it goes to Apple's bottom line. In time, the lower prices will allow many more people into the fold but as long as the hype creates a "must have" desirability at "any price" I am delighted. That is free enterprise working at its best.
MVNO. Apple could work the license to use both technologies. And they would have control.
IIRC the majority of Apple Stores were out of iPhone stock by Monday (I remember looking on the site and they were almost all red dots). So they probably sold almost all the phones that had been manufactured for the launch. It's hardly Apple's fault if analysts thought they had a lot more than that.
I think AT&T is lying about the activations. I saw a lot of people complaining about that online.
I think AT&T is lying about the activations. I saw a lot of people complaining about that online.
The question is what's happening now in iphone sales. With all the hype, this looked like a hollywood movie studio launch -- trying to get enough to cover your expenses in first two weekends before people know if the movie is any good, thereby reducing risk, and taking home anything that comes after that. The big question is, do people end up telling their friends to go see it, or not to bother? If that blitz was the peak selling rate like so many hollywood summer movies, apple's in trouble. But nobody really knows what's been going on since.
You must be joking about the internet part right? Yes we do have cable internet and it is 8 mb down and 1 mb up. Not great, but not bad considering I am sitting in a cowtown of 375 residents
I actually live about 45 miles from Sioux Falls, SD and 50 miles from Sioux City, IA and about 20 miles from a couple of other cities that have 10,000-15,000 people in them.
But anyhow a lot of the northern midwest and west is CDMA country. You can use a GSM phone in certain highly populated areas (ie. Sioux Falls) however if you live in a town of 375 like I do, then if you want to sit in your house and talk on your cell you need Verizon or Alltel. The rest of the providers are basically garbage in my area and many other rural areas in this country. I guess you could take your iPhone and try sitting on a hill somewhere. lol
Believe it or not I have exactly the same technology options as you do living in a big city (well other then the iPhone) so no need to make jokes about those of us who live in a rural area like South Dakota.
There are advantages and disadvantages to living in different areas. Here we have a lot of elbow room and wide open spaces, neighbors that still stop by for coffee and the chance to really get to know people in your town (can be good or bad, just depends
)
Of course there were that many. Every Apple fanboy on the planet purchased one. There are easily that many out there. I'm interested in seeing how many people buy one this holiday season. Long term I think the iPhone at this price point will fail. This is no different then the iPod Photo at $600 failed as well. Sure there were people like me that bought it but we are few and far between. I expect to see a major price drop before Black Friday.