Just spoke with a T-Mobile Executive Response member from John's office. Long story short, if you have UPS Ground in your My Choice, you're more than likely getting the phone on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. If you have anything BUT UPS Ground in your My Choice, you're getting it Friday. He told me that they have to wait until Apple tells them to start shipping, they're not allowed to start shipping any time sooner than that. Apparently shipping will likely start late tomorrow morning (Thursday).
Looks like I'll have to wait until Tuesday. I know people keep saying "ground shipping arrives on Friday every year" but I think they're referencing those that had "Ground" in their T-Mobile account, NOT those that had Ground in My Choice. I've never heard of any iPhone (through Apple or not) that gets there overnight if the actual shipping label says ground, there's absolutely no way UPS has some 'special system' or overclocks their shipping process just because it's iPhone day.
If your UPS label says ground, it's regular old ground shipping. No exceptions. Happy to be proven wrong come tomorrow/Friday.