The end of Tim Cook's reign is near.

[magicMac]

This is what’s known as a “Gish Gallop”. Throwing so many disconnected things into a single argument that there is no hope of getting to the point.

Gish gallop - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Wow never knew there was a phrase for this. This is really useful to know for future !

 

[6749974]

Regarding Apple Vision Pro:

It seems evident that Apple only put out the Vision Pro so that early adopters in various professions and industries play with (and come up) with solutions using the device.

(a) Apple can’t develop every (or many) industry apps, and​

​

(b) Apple can’t see or predict what every industry needs; Apple relies on a dev ecosystem to get creative and do the work for industry customers.​

​

The sooner Apple released this product into the wild, the sooner the ecosystem could begin an evolution, so they did just that.​

It was never meant to satisfy the majority market (that's us)—only inspire the majority market to begin thinking about augmented experiences—and get early adopters (dev's and industry users) to begin adoption.

This is a chicken and egg marketing problem.

For instance, I want to watch Dredd (2012) in 3D so badly, but Lionsgate seemingly won't spend 2¢ updating the release to a 3D format until theres more 3D movie watchers. And there won't be many 3D watchers when Apple is limiting the device to Apple users and it costs $3500. So Apple obviously doesn't intend for a 3D movie ecosystem to blossom overnight. They know its a 10-year problem, and releasing it early as possible is how you solve it sooner.

Apple NEEDS there to be competition. Meta needs to compete. Valve needs to compete. Microsoft and Google need to compete. Because Apple can't own the AR/VR market or the ecosystem will wither. Thats bad. Its much better for competitors to help blossom the AR/VR market, and for Apple to own 20% of a very large and prosperous market than for Apple to own 80% of a tiny market. So Apple made a move, but they also need competitors to come in and help grow the market.

Judging Apple Vision Pro on current sales is a mistake. This is a 10-year marketing problem. In 10 years we'll all have one, but Apple doesn't expect anyone here to run out and buy one today.

By the way—Apple does have some 3D movies here (just not my favorite Dredd 3D)

 

[6749974]

Guys,

Combine Gish Gallop with Brandoloni's Law and you literally become a superhero.

 

[Shirasaki]

I just want to ask one question.
What will change in the world of Apple after Tim Cook leaves?
Sure, he is CEO, so what?
Whether his “reign” is near or not, Apple will continue to operate regardless.
If in doubt, see what happened after Steve Jobs death.

 

[jb310]

Who will be the next CEO?

I really hope this reality show gets streamed on Apple TV. 😎

 

[TJ82]

Maybe worth also putting out there that even if Jobs were recruited today, he'd have a lot harder time creating such a large impact in a market that's far more mature.

I'd argue that guys like Sam Altman are probably the current 'Jobs'. Technically minded but like Jobs, not a master in any field - yet able to build a cult-like team of talent that achieves landscape changing breakthroughs.

Sutskever could be his Woz.

Oh that note, had Cook went into AI big and released AppleGPT in an alternate universe where Open AI never existed, no-one would ever question Cook.

 

[Japan Ricardo]

Who will be the next CEO?

You?

 

[Japan Ricardo]

Cook has been incredibly successful. Innovation is only part of a company's success. It's what a company does to help people in their lives that's important - and why Apple are viewed and loved in a way that most other companies can only dream of.

Having an Apple Watch doesn't say you're a nerd because lots of people who aren't nerds have them.

The Vision Pro was always going to be a failure because it looks stupid.

Butterfly keyboards, rubbish cases, software glitches... Failures abound. As they always will for a company that does things. But they make the best, most loved smartphones in the world. And the best laptops. And desktops. And smartwatches. They are marketing gold dust.

 

[Siliconguy]

But Jony Ive would.

No, not Jony Ive. Unusable artwork is not what I need.

 

[Siliconguy]

Having an Apple Watch doesn't say you're a nerd because lots of people who aren't nerds have them.

No one around here has one. iPhones are around here and there, but Android phones are the most common.

 

[WilliApple]

Yes, Vision Pro is a terrible Apple Product,
But so was the first iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac.

 

[joeblow7777]

Watches, that tell the world: this person is a nerdy nerd.

I had my doubts from the start, but I really stopped taking this seriously around this point.

 

[Marbles1]

From 800.000 units to hoping to sell 400.000 units...

and what do they present us today? Apple Arcade on the Vision Pro.

3500$ to play Solitaire ....


Even if they came up with an X-Wing VR game, where you actually feel like you are actually taking one of these fighters into the Death Star Trench run, 3500 would be steep.

But for Solitaire ... Apple has lost all sense...

An intersting point.

If Apple had launched it with one _amazing_ game. One first-party, exclusive game - a franchise from a movie, an internally developed new IP - anything but something truly groundbreaking, I reckon they'd have shifted it.

They launched it without any applications and thought it would work out just like iPad did after the iPhone.

 

[za9ra22]

They launched it without any applications and thought it would work out just like iPad did after the iPhone.

I wish I'd been in the room when they were thinking that. I could have told them it wouldn't work!

Seriously though, I find it hard to believe that a $3500 headset would have sold like hot cakes if there had just been a good game available for it. I can't help but think that they were actually focused on some other purpose for releasing this product, and were well aware that games (which have never been Apple's great strength) would follow for those who did actually want them.

Jobs was out of his mind when he picked ol’ Timmy.

And I’m sorry that it’s still true regardless.

History has already demonstrated how lacking in truth this statement is, though having to stoop to a personal attack already undermined the credibility of your statement anyway.

 

[6749974]

I really hope this reality show gets streamed on Apple TV. 😎

FROM THE PRODUCERS OF...

Is it Cake? Season 3

"IS THE NEW CEO A REAL CEO? OR IS SHE CAKE? TUNE IN NEXT WEEK"

 

[6749974]

The Vision Pro was always going to be a failure because it looks stupid.

I agree Vision Pro looks stupid but AirPods looked stupider—I'm now on my second pair and Apple sells 100 million pairs worldwide. [see image]

Now, the Vision Pro is a different thing entirely because it's an early product in an early market—where as AirPods innovated on an already large but stagnant product category that was ripe for disruption—but the moral of the AirPods story is that our human brains aren't good at predicting technological adoption because we're not outside the Overton window and so we aren't good at seeing the 4th dimension of adoption and change. The future always looks goofy—haven't you seen Back II The Future?

 

[TracerAnalog]

I would not be qualified.

But Jony Ive would.

Or even Frederighi.

But the bean counter's days are over. You can't just rely on the Steve Jobs innovations are ride those horses until they are dead. You have to come up with something completely unexpected, new, and well crafted.

Oh please, ‘bean counter’ is such a poor and lazy trope by now. I doubt you have a clue on how to run a behemoth like Apple. I don’t for sure.
Also, show me the unexpected, new and well crafted product by uhm.. Meta? Sony? IBM? What do you want, unicorns with laser eyes?
Thanks for your contribution 😉.

 

[Jumpthesnark]

Where are all the Apple enthusiasts left, who think different, who want to change the World, because they are crazy enough?

They're busy doing all that creative and crazy work, rather than rageposting on internet forums.

 

[joecomo]

Any serious response to the thread's original post will suffer from Brandolini's law.

Brandolini's law - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

great response - I now can quote another cool law

 

[AlastorKatriona]

I wanted to agree with your post given its title because I am very much done with Tim Cook's money-is-everything reign of power. Apple built its reputation based on CUSTOMER AND PRODUCT is everything, and Cook has been riding the coattails of that ever since.

But then the body of your post is filled with nonsense. What a shame.

 

[JustAnExpat]

Yes, Vision Pro is a terrible Apple Product,
But so was the first iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac.

Not quite true...

The first iPhone received lukewarm reviews. See https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/original-iphone-review/

"For those reasons, the iPhone is noteworthy not for what it does, but how it does it. If you want an iPhone badly, you probably already have one. But if you're on the fence, we suggest waiting for the second-generation handset."

or from Macworld: https://www.macworld.com/article/186335/original-iphone-review-2.html

"Although the iPhone is not without a few quirks, it makes good on the hype that surrounded it."

The first Apple Watch received lukewarm reviews:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/28/apple-watch-review-smartwatch-iphone-taptic-siri

"Apple’s much hyped smartwatch is carefully crafted with a masterful design, but poor battery life and confusing software mean curious consumers should wait"


Or from Macworld: https://www.macworld.com/article/667279/original-apple-watch-review.html

". But what it does do, it does as well as any smartwatch out there, thanks to Apple’s user interface expertise."

The reviews of the first Mac are harder to find. Reviews seemed to be lukewarm. From Byte (remember them? ). https://www.mac-history.net/review-the-apple-macintosh-computer-byte-issue-81984/

"Personally, I think the Macintosh is a wonderful machine. I use one daily at work, and then at night I play with the one I have at home. Or, at least, I try to play with it. You see, my wife – who for years resisted all my attempts to introduce her to computers – has fallen in love with the Mac (her words, not mine)."

The New York Times gave the Macintosh a decent review, at https://www.nytimes.com/1984/01/24/...re-review-apple-weighs-in-with-macintosh.html

SO HOW DOES THAT COMPARE TO THE VISION PRO?

The Vision Pro reviews were much more negative. From Wired: https://www.wired.com/review/apple-vision-pro/

"“You've got to start with the customer experience and work backward to the technology. You can't start with the technology and try to figure out where you're going to try and sell it." The Vision Pro feels like Apple did exactly that—it started with a fantastic piece of technology and is now trying to figure out a way to market it."

From CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/electronics/apple-vision-pro-worth-it

"So, is the Apple Vision Pro worth it? In terms of getting what you pay for, there’s an argument to be made that it is. This thing can ostensibly function as a computer with multiple screens or a giant virtual TV with built-in surround sound, two setups that can easily run you thousands of dollars on their own. What it might not be worth, however, is the feeling of neck pain after using one for a few hours."

I pick up a completely different vibe with these reviews for the Apple Vision Pro then with the other reviews for the iPhone, the Apple Watch, and the Macintosh.

 

[AlastorKatriona]

We don't know what Apple's roadmap is for AR/VR.

Yes, we do. This was fine to say for the last 10 years while Apple tooled around with AR gimmicks on iPhone. But with Vision Pro, Apple tipped their hand. People were hoping for AR glasses that were an every day wearable product like Apple Watch or AirPods. Instead we got a proof-of-concept VR headset that does fake AR, and is unusable for any sort of "every day" type of use. The worst part is, if Vision Pro fails, which every ounce of evidence indicates it already has, it will stifle the development of vision-related products at Apple and efforts will be shifted elsewhere in short order. Apple doesn't throw good money after bad, especially not Cook's Apple.

 

[AlastorKatriona]

Yes, Vision Pro is a terrible Apple Product,
But so was the first iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac.

This is so incredibly false that it's laughable.

 

[JustAnExpat]

Yes, we do. This was fine to say for the last 10 years while Apple tooled around with AR gimmicks on iPhone. But with Vision Pro, Apple tipped their hand. People were hoping for AR glasses that were an every day wearable product like Apple Watch or AirPods. Instead we got a proof-of-concept VR headset that does fake AR, and is unusable for any sort of "every day" type of use. The worst part is, if Vision Pro fails, which every ounce of evidence indicates it already has, it will stifle the development of vision-related products at Apple and efforts will be shifted elsewhere in short order. Apple doesn't throw good money after bad, especially not Cook's Apple.

When did Apple make the roadmap for AR/VR public? Can you please paste a link?

 

[AlastorKatriona]

I agree Vision Pro looks stupid but AirPods looked stupider—I'm now on my second pair and Apple sells 100 million pairs worldwide. [see image]

Now, the Vision Pro is a different thing entirely because it's an early product in an early market—where as AirPods innovated on an already large but stagnant product category that was ripe for disruption—but the moral of the AirPods story is that our human brains aren't good at predicting technological adoption because we're not outside the Overton window and so we aren't good at seeing the 4th dimension of adoption and change. The future always looks goofy—haven't you seen Back II The Future?

To say AirPods look stupider than Vision Pro is quite the stretch of reality.