The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[CWallace]

With all the rumors swirling around, the "critics consensus" seems to be that the M2 Mac mini will have an identical chassis to the M1 Mac mini and will offer M2 and M2 Pro SoCs.

So the "Mac mini Pro" would compete on price, as EugW noted and the Mac Studio would compete on overall feature set - more cores, more RAM, faster RAM speed, more storage, faster storage speed (especially at configs where both SSD slots are used) and more TB4 and USB4 ports.

I expect the two higher-end Mac mini configurations that will sell the most are M2 with 24GB and M2 Pro with 16GB as both should be below $1499. Beyond that, I believe the Mac Studio becomes to compelling a value option for most people and I see few folks buying an Mac mini M2 Pro with 24GB/32GB/48GB of RAM versus an M1 Studio.

 

[Boil]

M2 Pro Mac mini would fill the "I need something with a bit more horsepower than the M2, but still somewhat budget-friendly" niche of the Mac mini market...

A bit more CPU & GPU cores than the M2 (even with single & double-binned variants) and twice the UMA bandwidth...

 

[EugW]

I expect the two configurations that will sell the most are M2 with 24GB and M2 Pro with 16GB as both should be below $1499. Beyond that, I believe the Mac Studio becomes to compelling a value option for most people and I see few folks buying an Mac mini M2 Pro with 24GB/32GB/48GB of RAM versus an M1 Studio.

I suspect a 16 GB M2 Mac mini would outsell a 24 GB M2 Mac mini. In fact, I might expect an 8 GB M2 Mac mini to outsell a 24 GB M2 Mac mini too, simply because of cost.

In terms of bang for the buck, I think the best overall value out of all of them for the mainstream would be the 16 GB M2 Mac mini.

That leaves all the M2 Pro Mac mini models in a smaller group.

 

[CWallace]

I suspect a 16 GB M2 Mac mini would outsell a 24 GB M2 Mac mini. In fact, I might expect the 8 GB M2 Mac mini outsell a 24 GB M2 Mac mini.

I should have been more clear - in terms of higher-end configurations, I expect Mac mini buyers who need RAM will buy the 24GB M2 model and those who need CPU/GPU will buy the M2 Pro with 16GB.

For buyers who need both RAM and cores, I expect the majority to choose the base Mac Studio rather than buy a Mac mini with an M2 Pro and 32GB of RAM even if it ends up being a couple hundred cheaper.

 

[EugW]

M2 Pro Mac mini would fill the "I need something with a bit more horsepower than the M2, but still somewhat budget-friendly" niche of the Mac mini market...

A bit more CPU & GPU cores than the M2 (even with single & double-binned variants) and twice the UMA bandwidth...

Yup. There is definitely room for it.

I should have been more clear - in terms of higher-end configurations, I expect Mac mini buyers who need RAM will buy the 24GB M2 model and those who need CPU/GPU will buy the M2 Pro with 16GB.

Agreed, that makes more sense.

For buyers who need both RAM and cores, I expect the majority to choose the base Mac Studio rather than buy a Mac mini with an M2 Pro and 32GB of RAM even if it ends up being a couple hundred cheaper.

Yes, that would be a SKU that heavily pushes the upsell to Mac Studio.

 

[tstafford]

For buyers who need both RAM and cores, I expect the majority to choose the base Mac Studio rather than buy a Mac mini with an M2 Pro and 32GB of RAM even if it ends up being a couple hundred cheaper.

This is Apple's model and exactly how the M2 Air played out. Spec it up and all of the sudden it makes more sense to buy a MBP14. And in the case of the mini vs. studio there isn't any meaningful form factor advantage (like there is with MBA).

 

[EugW]

If Apple waits to release the new Mac minis when or after Ventura launches, they won't need to support Monterey on them. Ventura supposedly launches by the end of this month.

I still worry about the recent release date of Mac Studio though (7 months ago). As others like @theluggage have said, it seems early for an update of Mac Studio, and without an M2 Max/Ultra Mac Studio update, an M2 Pro Mac mini seems less likely.

 

[Boil]

macOS Ventura & iPadOS 16 coming end of October, sure sign of M2 / M2 Pro Mac minis & iPad Pros the week before...? ;^p

 

[opeter]

If there will be updated Macs, they will come with macOS Ventura.

 

[Santabean2000]

Maybe they will, but prepare at least 1500 to 1800 $ for that configuration.

Yep, will have to pay a pretty penny for it, but (considering my slow upgrade cadence), it is what it is and I'll suck it up.

 

[Maximara]

I have some older programs such as Adobe CS 5.1 among others. I was concerned that if I go past 10.6.8 then maybe some of my programs won't work. I'm also very low on hard drive space.

You could so what I have been doing for ages — boot off an external hard drive and have another drive for documents. Did that with my 2007 iMac and am doing it with my 2013 iMac. Samsung 1 TB SSD (system and key applications) and a 2TB WB for first and a 3TB for back up (which I do manually to save on writes to SSD — it creates a file on the main drive each time you do a back up deleting the oldest when it gets to 10)

 

[uptownnyc]

You could so what I have been doing for ages — boot off an external hard drive and have another drive for documents. Did that with my 2007 iMac and am doing it with my 2013 iMac. Samsung 1 TB SSD (system and key applications) and a 2TB WB for first and a 3TB for back up (which I do manually to save on writes to SSD — it creates a file on the main drive each time you do a back up deleting the oldest when it gets to 10)

Doing the same for my Late 2012 iMac. Exact same Samsung 1TB book drive, then the internal fusion drive for storage, etc.

 

[boswald]

I hope so, because my quad-core i3 with 8GB RAM is getting a little long in the teeth.

 

[opeter]

I hope so, because my quad-core i3 with 8GB RAM is getting a little long in the teeth.

Why don't you upgrade the RAM to 2 x 8 GB? That is not a big money today.

 

[CWallace]

So Gurman's latest Sunday Update re-states his opinion that Apple will update all products via a web press release and that the iPads will come out around the release date of iPadOS 16.1 and that the Macs will not drop until November.

No comment on the Mac mini, but that continues to affirm the rumors that the Mac mini case will keep the current M1 case and that it will at a minimum just swap the M1 for the M2 and at most will also add an M2 Pro. IMO, the mini has to keep the same case to warrant an M2 Pro because Apple needs clear differentiation between the mini and the Studio and keeping it on the same case both keeps the production (and therefore, sale) price down as well as improves the value proposition of the Studio to encourage owners looking at a maxed Mac mini (M2 Pro/24GB or 32GB/10Gbe) to instead choose the Studio because of better performance, expansion and cooling capacity.

 

[Mechanism]

I'm excited for new Mac Mini(s) but I can already hear the reviewers saying "wait for M3, M2 is just a stopgap"

 

[gusping]

I'm excited for new Mac Mini(s) but I can already hear the reviewers saying "wait for M3, M2 is just a stopgap"

If the M3 is based on this year's iPhone chip, I suspect the uptick will be similarly minimal. Someone can correct me if that's not right, but I am not expecting too much. The single core CPU performance difference between the M1 and M3 could be <30%.

 

[darkanddivine]

Is anyone of the view that the plan for the desktop machines (vs the laptops) might be a less frequent update cadence? The M2 has been on the scene for 6 months, so it’s not unreasonable to have a delay while preparing new products and also allowing others their moment in the sun at launch. But if the update of 18 months between chips is correct, would Apple want to go to the effort of putting a chip in a machine for 12 months or less - and is this why there are suggestions are that they will go from M1 to M3? Or would the idea be to have the desktop machines (iMac, Mini) go through the same upgrade cycle, but just a few months behind the laptops?

 

[pshufd]

Is anyone of the view that the plan for the desktop machines (vs the laptops) might be a less frequent update cadence? The M2 has been on the scene for 6 months, so it’s not unreasonable to have a delay while preparing new products and also allowing others their moment in the sun at launch. But if the update of 18 months between chips is correct, would Apple want to go to the effort of putting a chip in a machine for 12 months or less - and is this why there are suggestions are that they will go from M1 to M3? Or would the idea be to have the desktop machines (iMac, Mini) go through the same upgrade cycle, but just a few months behind the laptops?

I want to see what the fallout is from President Biden's new restrictions on chip R&D in China. Will Apple have to move more production out of China, either by the chip issues or because of retaliation by China?

 

[iZac]

I want to see what the fallout is from President Biden's new restrictions on chip R&D in China. Will Apple have to move more production out of China, either by the chip issues or because of retaliation by China?

I think the chip issues are barring sales for 'domestic sales' within China. I believe they can still manufacture for export.

I even noticed a ridiculous thing is when I got my last 2018 Mac mini delivered to me in Shanghai from the Chinese online Apple store. The postal packaging was labeled as "imported goods" despite the fact it's made in Shenzhen (or maybe even Shanghai, who knows)

Must just be some weird tax thing where is legally 'leaves' the country before being re-imported as foreign goods because the company is American.

I think diversification in manufacturing has happening regardless, Foxxcon already have India and Vietnam plants and I'm sure more will follow.

 

[unknownx]

How would you react if Apple made a press-released, same-designed M2 Mac Mini?

That would be the worst thing that could happen.. Meaning a new designed M3 Mac Mini is around the corner 😅

 

[Mechanism]

How would you react if Apple made a press-released, same-designed M2 Mac Mini?

That would be the worst thing that could happen.. Meaning a new designed M3 Mac Mini is around the corner 😅

That's pretty much what they're predicting (M2, M2 Pro, more-or-less the same design) but I don't see it as a bad thing.

"Around the corner" for an M3 Mac Mini might be a year or two.

 

[gusping]

How would you react if Apple made a press-released, same-designed M2 Mac Mini?

That would be the worst thing that could happen.. Meaning a new designed M3 Mac Mini is around the corner 😅

Extremely happy if an M2 Pro version accompanied it (very unlikely.... )

 

[Freida]

It will be same design. Also, M3 is at least a year away so really no point waiting for that. In fact, waiting for M3 could be considered stupid or basically imply that you don't need a computer now so why having that conversation in the first place.

How would you react if Apple made a press-released, same-designed M2 Mac Mini?

That would be the worst thing that could happen.. Meaning a new designed M3 Mac Mini is around the corner 😅

 

[darkanddivine]

Re: waiting it out I guess the thinking here is that unlike iPhone we don’t have a common update timing for the M chips. For example the Mini has had M1 and in that time the M1, M2, M1 Pro (and potentially the M2 Pro) have been either touted or fully launched. Obviously this makes it tricky for buyers as there is no established release schedule so holding out “just in case” may be worthwhile. It looks like it’s 18-24 months based on other machines, but that’s just based on 1-2 cases so may not be representative.

Macrumors currently has the iMac as caution and the Mini as don’t buy respectively too. Personally if Apple was 80-90% through the timeline over 1-2 years then to me that warrants waiting for an updated chip. But the issue here is that it’s possible that the Mini or the iMac get no update at all and this would be unlikely to be public knowledge either. If I knew that the intention was to go from M1 to M3 and that we’re 50% through the update cycle then in that case I’d be tempted to jump in sooner.