Clearly, TM will fail for a few different reasons and many people here are experiencing different or a combination of different issues.
I too upgraded to a new 16" M1 Max MBP and TM failed ever since.
What ultimately worked for me was excluding the 4 problematic FindMy folders & excluding the ~/Library/Metadata folder as well.
Since 12/29 my TM backups succeeded and I've waited until today to post my results to confirm that it still works almost a week later.
A few more details and notes that may be of interest to any of you:
- my drive is not formatted in APFS, but is still HFS+ and that's because I kept my last backup from my previous Intel MBP on the same drive. So seems like APFS is not the reason for this issue.
- Some have deleted the FindMy folders from their Mac and that has resolved the issue, but only temporarily. I suspect that's because macOS may re-create those folders so deleting them is not a good workaround. What you should do instead is exclude those folders from the Time Machine backup.
- In my case, like many others, TM seemed to finish but it actually said waiting to complete ... I did try Safe Mode and First Aid on both the macOS internal drive and the TM drive, but none seemed to help. Then excluding the FindMy folders did cause those "pending completion of first backup" messages to stop showing up, but the backup still failed and never really completed. So not clear if running TM in safe mode and/or running First Aid did something or not. Maybe it did, maybe not. Ultimately, adding the Metadata folder to the exclude list was the final fix for me.
- If none of the solutions from this thread help you to resolve the TM issue, you should check out the log files and see if it fails on any specific file or folder not mentioned here. If it does, add it to the exclude list.
What we've learned from this saga is that there probably is no specific hardware issue causing this and simply excluding a few files will ultimately get TM to complete.
To check the log file, I suggest running the following in terminal:
log show --style syslog --predicate 'senderImagePath contains[cd] "TimeMachine"' --info > tmlog.txt
This may take a while to complete, but wait. Then go over the file tmlog.txt
- When the problem does occur, before you get it resolved, there will be a huge backup file with inProgress in its name. This is a partial backup and you can actually do a "Show Package Contents" on it and start browsing inside your backed up files (at least I can with HFS+, maybe this is now restricted with the Read-Only APFS???)
When TM fires back up, it will pick up this inProgress file and use it to continue to back up what else needs to be backed up. In my multiple trials before I got it resolved, I often deleted this file to start from scratch. But I then realized that wasn't necessary and leaving that file in place actually made the next attempt run faster, until I finally got it resolved.
I did turn off automatic backups until I got this resolved and ran test backups manually.
- When the next Monterey update comes out we should remember to remove those directories from the exclude list and see if Apple got these issues resolved. If not, put them back and wait for the next update.
I hope these may help anyone.
Good luck to everyone.