If the PPC to Intel transition is used as the model, and I think it will be, Apple will replace the entire lineup with Arm chips within 1 year.
The problem is that is not a good match at all to the current situation.
First , the PPC as relatively faster than 68K solutions at the time. Fast enough so that the overhead of the emulation brought the overall speed back to 68K levels. So during the software transition there is no backsliding. The across the number and variety of PPC solutions available the Except for some very low end corner cases and some 64 bits at the very hgh end, the same thing was true at the for x86 versus PPC solutions were coming from. Not only were there better mobile solutions ( which was 'stuck' in the PPC world because there were no other customers for that other than Apple), there were a variety of desktop solutions available too.
Second, those moves were to more than one vendor ecosystems. Motorola shelved their 88K "future" path for the 68K for jumping on board with IBM (and Apple) on PPC. What was suppose to happen was a variety of systems (not just Macs) would use that as a foundation and Apple would share base platform costs with other vendors of the broader platform. The Mac all by itself didn't have the volume to move it forward by itself. Apple holding back on the support chipset ( going independent) damaged that over the long term. For example, the mobile version sputtered at the end post killing clones since there was no other mobile (battery power oriented ) consumer of PPC at that point. Apple didn't want to pay the price for someone to do it; so it didn't happen.
A much more stable picture for jumping to a broader, far more stable shared ecosystem of x86. Mobile/Laptop processors available because there 90% more latptops than Macs driving that development. Desktops, same thing, 90% more than Macs volumes driving that development.
Those to factors are entirely at odds with the mantra that Apple wants to drive development solely based upon the volume of the Mac primarily
all by Macs themselves. That's is basically a 180 degree turn. [ Oh but there iOS systems should count toward volume. iOS chips are going to skew the development in there own direction. Pretty much the same way that IBM skewed PPC up to fill their workstation/server needs (at higher margins ) versus trying to chase laptop CPUs which they didn't have. ] If it is a matter of Macs just getting "hand me down" chips from the iOS volume driver then essentially in same place as the PPC state just the "fill" category swapped ( PPC : have desktop ; don't have laptop versus have low end laptop versus don't have desktop ).
Apple made those previous transitions to get more rational cost sharing state; not for "more control just for more control sake".
If a desktop ARM vendor popped up and Macs were not the only desktop system consumer for that product then that would be a far more plausible path. That would actually
match the pattern as would be jumping into a broader than just the Mac ecosystem and leverage shared R&D to offset relatively low volume that Apple Mac has. Still wouldn't be a sole Apple venture. For the next 2 years or so that is probably not going to happen. There are 2-3 server focused parties out there. ARM is focused on filling that space with reference designs. The
N1 and E1 look decent for that task ( simulator N1 out in front of an current AMD Epyc on multiple benches there. ), but that skew is toward more cores and slower than top end clocks. ( workloads for multiple concurrent users as opposed to single user focused apps driven by a GUI. Desktop Windows is not a major target audience. )
Apple may try to cheat and use the T2 chip as a crutch.
T2 isn't a crutch. It has a role to unify the securing of the boot process and of handling of highly sensitive user data. There is likely going to be zero move to "move" user level apps there at all; as that would basically unwind the security if start to loop in arbitrary programs to that environment. The whole point is to have a computational environment that is free of that (less holes to be exploited. ).
T2 isn't trying to fill a primary application processor role. And it doesn't have to.
That means the iMac Pro, MacBook Pro, Mac Mini, and MacBook Air could still be sold for a while longer, and the 2017 iMac and Macbook and MacBook Pro esc all get the shaft.
Apple could probably prune off the MBA relatively soon. It is already on a
Core-Y ( what was Core-M) processor family that the MacBook is on. A12X can handle one Type-C USB port now. It wouldn't be hard to extend that to two in a year or two. The MacBook isn't being shafted is the intent is to chase the "even thinner, even lighter" market. The MBA could get sucked into that same blackhole. That is the one aria were neither Intel or AMD have an answer. Nor are they likely to "get" one over next 2-3 years either. Intel and AMD are far more strongly based to do have an answer in he iMac , iMac Pro , Mac Pro space. Also in the larger MBP space.
Apple selling a much higher percentage of "old" stuff for more multiple years than they are now. Chuckle like that is going to work. If don't have an ARM solution then holding the higher end Macs hostage is even
more ridiculous than what they have done with the Mac Pro the last 3-5 years. Putting the Mac Pro into Rip van Winkle mode has
NOT worked for them at all over a broad scope. They may not have lost much money on the Mac Pro, but they have basically damaged a significant fraction of that specific user base. Folks at Apple would have to be drinking gallons of Cupertino kool-aid not to know that the path they have been on is has some more than serious flaws. ( e.g., the two "dog ate my homework" meetings during the last two year's April. )
If Apple has nothing for the desktop space then they would need to keep pace with the competing systems until they do. Or just quit the desktop space if they don't think it is a worthwhile space to be in. ( perhaps do a swap for some of the desktop models with some "desktop replacement" units styled on the Mac laptops weight/thickness restrictions of 10 years ago. )
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Apple's abandonment of the creatives and other power users over the past 10 years does seem to indicate that it is likely that that the OSX computers will be demoted to ARM chips, and generally emasculated as for as power and power apps are concerned.
ARM doesn't necessarily mean "demoted". Intel has been screwing up making substantive progress. AMD has shot themselves in the foot numerous times. For a significant chunk of the Mac product line up both Intel and AMD have questionable stuff in terms of competitiveness. At the iMac/Mac Pro end of the product line up it is basically almost the exact opposite case.
Creatives don't all live in the Mac Pro segment of the Mac product line up. Apple has done nothing for creatives is smoke. Some creatives? Yes. All Creatives? not even close.
Killing Nvidia support was step 1 of the process. Maybe step 0 was the cluster-muck of killing OpenCL, OpenGL and adopting a "Metal-only" stance. What a clever way to kill off most of those old cMP systems.
Adding
support (firmware updates , software , and validation testing) for the latest OS is an extremely odd way of killing off the old cMP systems. They probably will be "killed off" in the next round of OS upgrade, but that is entirely on track with their over decade old Vintage and Obsolete policy ( 2013 + 5-to-7 = 2018-2020 ; 2019 is in middle of that range).
Apple hasn't killed Nvidia support. They have simply not signed the drivers. Apple not signing software typically means that the vendor violated some rules/guidelines that Apple has laid down. Being in compliance with Apple's rules is part of the process. If Nvidia can't/won't do that they have a very significant role in the root cause. ( Nvidia playing a "embrace, extend, extinguish" game with Metal support could be a cause not to sign the drivers. They did it for OpenCL. It wouldn't be surprising at all if they were trying to do it again. )
While macOS has aspects that are independent from most iOS restrictions and strategic objectives, Metal isn't one of those.
I don't think that "taking the whole Mac line up to ARM" is the right question. Is Apple eliminating the x64 Mac line in favor of a new ARM-based line? Will it be a replacement, or a shift to an iOS based lineup that further abandons power users?
ARM as a shift to iOS based line up make absolutely zero sense. Apple already has a highly successful OS on ARM. They do
not need macOS volume to be added to make that successful in the slightest. iOS is perfectly capable of subsuming some macOS features with a split implementation stack (e.g., dock coming to iPads). Apple could slightly diverge iOS on iPhone and iOS on iPad without dragging macOS into the loop at all.
Moving macOS to ARM or not should be around what can/can't the x86 solutions do for where Apple wants to take the Mac products. For "thinner and lighter and "always network connected" mobile solutions then yes there are places the x86 solutions really don't travel to as well. So the actually the real question is whether dogma ( gotta be ARM everywhere) is driving the Mac CPU assignment decision making process or "right tool for right job" is? That is a core question.
The "why" they are eliminating/switching platform is important. If it is basically irrational ( doing ths primarily just because they can) then it really isn't worth sticking around in the professional workstation space to see what they come up with. If willy-nilly is driving the decision on CPU, then it is also highly likely driving many aspects of the rest of the system too. If they have no long term plan and release a x86 CPU then it highly likely this is another Rip van Winkle system (ship it and go to sleep for another 5 years or more. )
Doing only a subset would be highly indicative that they are looking at "right tool , right job". Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) uniformity ... not so much.
Sometime in the next two years the MP7,1 may be announced, and may give us a clue.
You are likely not going to be able to clearly ascertain what Apple is doing on the broad scope of the whole Mac Product line up by peephole analyzing just one singular, narrow market focused product.
If the Mac Pro takes until 2020 to get out then likely can get a clue about the Mac Pro, not the rest of the product line. If it was early 2020 then somewhat likely that product will go back into Rip van Winkle mode. Mid-2020 (or later) then highly likely. It would definitely be a on death spiral in terms of sales.