Even intel has said “Apple is looking to drop intel”.
Intel isn't the only x86 supplier. And they aren't the x86 supplier that is smoothly executing progress right now either. AMD makes semi-custom x86 chips for Sony and Microsoft. If Apple put money on the table to get one they could get some.
There is also little indication in these "drop Intel" rumblings that it was 100% complete dropping. Apple is throwing out all modems , CPUs, Thunderbolt controller , ... everything with an Intel badge on it out the window in 2020.
The modem part I believe far more than 100% drop from the Mac line up. However, that would be couple years away (at best). Intel's fab screw up has had more impact there than in the CPUs. If somehow Qualcomm and Apple bury the hatchet and Apple works out a deal for the price points they want ... Intel's modems in iPhones is
toast. The move off of Qualcomm was
not to something better/faster/lower power. Intel primarily has the business right now because they were not Qualcomm and were willing to throw gobs of money at tweaking to Apple specs.
Apple just moving the MacBook to a "hand me down" A12X/A13X would be a substantive drop in orders from Apple ( for a not so cheap CPU package). Also extremely likely a partial legitimization of the Quallcomm 8cx Windows systems coming down the road starting late this year on the Windows laptops size. That could also trigger even more substantive drop in orders. Let's say Macbooks are 600K per year in units. The Core m3 7Y32 is about $280. That's $168M in lost says for Intel if Apple just flips that one system. If 4 other big vendors also flip about the yearly run rate over to ARM that's $840M.
If Apple took the MBA off and that was 2M units/year that is another $580M. Add those up and at $1.4B. That's isn't going to put Intel into the poor house. But it is something to say is a significant possible issue. Apple just dropping Intel from just two "bottom end" laptops could be around $700M hit for Intel.
That would certainly send a "get your crap together" message to them to stop screwing up.
I would imagine there has been some signaling between Apple and intel for intel to think that. We can keep on thinking oh xxx-lake is coming out next quarter but nothing has happened.
There is more than signaling going on. Intel is basically is at least 2-3 years behind on their roadmap. If the next Mac Pro ships with Cascade Lake 2066 socket chips in mid 2019 then probably a decent portion of that slide into 2019 was Intel's FUBAR. When the new Intel CEO took part of his initial messaging was that they needed to get much better at execution. It is about 99.9% likely that was a common message bubbling up from their largest customers.
It is somewhat likely Apple has stopped talking to them about a version of the "m3 / Y" class processor for the next MacBook. Constrained down to 8GB (maybe 16GB ) max RAM, no Thunderbolt, One port. 12 inch screen (like iPad Pro). Intel doesn't have something that is "better" if chasing the holy grail of thinnest.
Here is Intel's motherboard stab at "Always On, Always Connected" the worked up with HP.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13434/intel-custom-amber-lake-y-with-lte-modem
and here is the iPad Pro board.
https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/iPad+Pro+11-Inch+Teardown/115457
Apple has something in the same ballpark on size and is faster and uses less power. Why wouldn't they might want to use it? Why would Intel think they had some large leverage advantage here. They could look at iFixIt too and see what Apple has and look in their own labs and see what they have. If Apple hasn't asked for a reference board from this product area in a relatively long time ... it wouldn't take Columbo detective skills to figure out why.
[ Similar issue back late 2011 / early 2012 where there was a rumor here that Apple had asked for no Xeon E5 boards and hadn't engaged the OS "boot up" team at Intel. If Mac Pro hsd been on track that would be loopy. Yet in June 2012 Apple had about nothing new because they had asked for about nothing new. ]
Apples ‘pro’ software hasn’t seen any major attention, and neither has there hardware...
Not really true. FCPX now versus 3 years ago has seen substantive updates ( about 10.2.3 is about 3 years back.
FCPX change log . Need to scroll more than halfway down that page to get there. ) . LogicX roughly the same substantive progress. To try characterize the updates there as in roughly the same boat as the Mac Pro is mostly just misdirection.
The biggest Pro system in Apple's line is the MBP. Again over the last 3 years ... definitely seen substantive upgrades. Some folks may not like the, ( not enough variety of ports , no tinder inside options), but have had major attention applied. iMac got iMac Pro. Again not a speed bump upgrade. ( discounting because not a "box with slots" ) .
Is the Mac Pro "last in line" in terms of priority? yes. Is all of Apple's pro line up? No. Lower priority getting slower updates is yet another indicator that some overwhelming sweeping move off of Intel is probably
not coming in a relatively short span of time. Apple doesn't move that fast over the whole line that fast anymore even when not changing platforms.
so what else could it be? I’m not saying these are the only options I’m asking what other alternatives are there? Because both don’t seem to have a great pathway for pro/sumer/fessionals
If the third iteration of Zen closes the gap to +/-3% percentage points to Intel , is more affordable than Intel , and Apple has worked out a 3rd party Thunderbolt controller solution ( or has sufficient certification with Intel's + AMD combo ). then could dump Intel in the desktop line up without much problem. Some driver and kernel work to do, but it would just be mostly a vendor swap for one that is executing smoothly over a couple of years versus one that isn't.
AMD probably doesn't have anything in the MacBook/Core "m" space either over next couple of years either. But they are significantly growing share in the Windows systems space. If they get to 20+% and Apple adds in 4-7% that is in the range of long term viable.
I don’t know what’s going on in apples R&d anymore than anyone else in this forum, but reading what Apple has said and what Apple has been shipping I really tend to think Apple will either hit us with a massive “the Mac has been living a double life and we have a silicon that blows intel xeons-after everything we have learned with our powerful iPad Pros over the last 3 years we have developed a desktop silicon that beats everything on the market and we will be releasing it later this year”
The problem is they haven't demonstrated that at all for the Xeon W class or high end desktop class CPU package (from AMD or Intel) . They are even further behind on desktop GPUs.
Apple has talked alot of smack about being faster than most of the Windows laptops shipped, but so are just about all of the current MacBook Pros. "Most" of the Windows laptops are sold at prices $400+ less expensive than Macs are.
If go to the $2K+ workstation market laptops ( especially those in the desktop replacement weight class) and the A12X isn't winning much at all. It isn't dominating in any way.
Apple CPUs have demonstrated nothing about being able to handle larger RAM capacities at all.
"... On iOS, 429.mcf was a problem case as the kernel memory allocator generally refuses to allocate the single large 1.8GB chunk that the program requires (even on the new 4GB iPhones). I’ve modified the benchmark to use only half the amount of arcs, thus roughly reducing the memory footprint to ~1GB. ..."
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13392/the-iphone-xs-xs-max-review-unveiling-the-silicon-secrets/4
Is there a MMU that handle large page tables and a variety of memory mappings... probably not ( because doesn't exist in the iOS devices that haven't reached double digits GBs let alone triple. digits. ).
Apple isn’t competing with anyone other than Apple-apple dropped the old iPhone cpu’s Because they saw that ‘they’ could do it better, why not here? Maybe it’s not ARM, maybe it’s their own x86 set who knows but Apple.
Apple didn't particularly drop the "old" iPhone at all. It started ARM it is ARM now. The started to implement ARM themselves. A quite reasonable idea when they were using Samsung (a phone competitor at the conglomerate level) to implement ARM for them. The hard core fact is that they
did NOT run off and leave a larger ecosystem that supported spreading the R&D costs out to multiple systems; not just folding the costs onto Apple. They didn't dump Samsung and then start over from scratch and invent their own instruction set.
ImaginationTech GPUs. Again they dumped them for a 'in-house' GPU over time but again a multiple year gradual shift. And they are still primarily running the ImagTech "front end" API on their GPU (just implemented by Apple). They didn't dump the GPU API completely and start over from scratch.
The run rates on leading edge iPhones is close to several 10's of million per year. The run rates on individual Mac models ( especially when get into the desktop classes) is an order of magnitude less (at least if not two when get into the iMac Pro and Mac Pro zone). Apple hasn't in-housed anything that is dramatically smaller volume at all.
The argument that Apple is waiting for the next GPU or CPU at this point is laughable. You’ll jump over current offerings and still offer what was considered, by some, dated when it was released in 2013.
If they are not putting tons of across the board effort into systems for which the basically buy a CPU "off the shelf" why would they be putting even MORE effort into pushing that component development task onto their plate. ( If the Mac is only being assigned 2-3 teams to development 6 product groups why would Apple put more people into components for those 6 than are are folks doing the overall systems ??????? If it is such a Scrooge McDuck operation on Mac system product resource assignment, how is that group of misers going to do some multi $100M chip component R&D spend ????? ) Or is it more likely the misers throw some "hand me down" chip over the fence at $100's of Million less in cost?
It isn't laughable that if they targeted late 2018 (back in 2017) and things slid into early-mid 2019. Just about everybody who has coupled to Intel's CPU products over last 2-3 years has had 1-2 quarter rollout slides. When Apple does release something they will have waited from some set of components they picked to get to volume production.
That the CPU/GPU were the cause of the "pause button" being held down from 2014-2017. No. It wasn't. That's far more so probably do to the fact that it really wasn't a priority for Apple or a significant chunk of their users ( witness "are you happy with your 5,1 " threads that have appeared recently.).