Waiting for the 2020 MBP

[sennomulo]

The ‘16 is nothing more then thinning the bezzels. That it. The ‘15 will be around untill stock depleates

With the 16″ MBP having a rumored resolution of 3072 × 1920, and given that Apple really likes their 220 pixels-per-inch standard across their devices, they'd have to increase the size of the chassis. At 16.4″, it wouldn't physically fit into the current form factor.

If this is a replacement for the MBP 15″, then my guess is Apple slightly increased the screen size to give them an "excuse" to increase the size of the rest of the chassis. Both the keyboard and thermal issues of this generation are partly due to the thinness of the design. Maybe Apple decided that the next one just needs to be a little thicker and heavier, as many people have called for. But Apple isn't going to just increase the thickness and weight in a new generation of a device; that goes against the whole Apple ethos. The only Apple-y way to accomplish that is to increase the screen size and play it off like the slightly clunkier form factor is because of the slightly bigger screen you get. Then they'd probably do the same for the 13″ MBP, bumping it up to 14″.

I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out what those 7 model numbers from the EEC database mean. I believe last week's update only accounted for one of them (the base model MBP 13″), leaving six to presumably be released in the coming months. That's a lot of Macs.

The only other rumor we have to go on is about the scissor mechanism keyboard, which according to the rumor is supposed to be released in a new MBA this year and then introduced to the MBPs next year. That doesn't make sense if there's a new 16″ MBP coming out. It would be ludicrous for Apple to come out with a brand-new chassis that they have to put on the keyboard replacement program the day it launches. It would be even more ludicrous for Apple to come out with several new MacBooks that all have to be immediately added to the keyboard replacement program. I'm really hoping these numbers represent the introduction of a new scissor mechanism keyboard across the lineup.

But, as others have pointed out, it seems odd that they would tweak the keyboard in the MBA just to give it another new keyboard months later. The MBA has never been refreshed twice in the same year. The only way that makes sense is if Apple's trying to ditch the butterfly keyboard as soon as possible, but they felt it was worth it to have a sturdier keyboard in their replacement top cases (no matter what happens Apple has at least four years of butterfly keyboard replacements to plan for).

 

[terminator-jq]

I have a good feeling that the keyboard and screen size won’t be the only big features of the new 16”. We know that Apple created a “Pro focused” R&D team back when the iMac pro first came out. This pro focused team also apparently had a pretty big part in the development for the new Mac Pro and Pro display as well. Both of which are very cutting edge products. Pricing aside, the new Mac Pro is a step forward in every direction and it also shows a different attitude from Apple. If this new Pro focused R&D team is also involved in the development of the new MacBook Pro (which I think it’s very safe to assume they are), then we will probably get a product that is far and above what the current generation is.

I’m guessing 6gb Navi GPUs, very good ventilation, brighter display with HDR ability and maybe even some modules components like the ability to upgrade your ram and GPU. Should be very interesting. I think we will definitely get something very impressive.

 

[fokmik]

I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out what those 7 model numbers from the EEC

2 models of the 1.4cpu MBP 128ssd base and the 256 base and 2 new macbook air also 128 base and 256 base
So from 7 there are remaining 3

 

[sennomulo]

2 models of the 1.4cpu MBP 128ssd base and the 256 base and 2 new macbook air also 128 base and 256 base
So from 7 there are remaining 3

They don't use separate model numbers for different SSD configurations or processors. These should be devices with significant physical differences. The only exception would be if they came out with a reintroduced MacBook with wifi and cellular modem variants; that would probably take up four model numbers altogether.

 

[fokmik]

They don't use separate model numbers for different SSD configurations or processors. These should be devices with significant physical differences. The only exception would be if they came out with a reintroduced MacBook with wifi and cellular modem variants; that would probably take up four model numbers altogether.

When they've release the new 15" MBP also they've used 2 models ECC

 

[sennomulo]

When they've release the new 15" MBP also they've used 2 models ECC

Really? With what distinguishing feature between the two model numbers? I thought I had read something to the contrary, but I could be mistaken.

 

[fokmik]

Still...3 models remaining so...13" is ok, 15" is ok, i guess we are getting the 16" in 2 models or 3

 

[danwells]

The 15" model numbers don't refresh every time...

2012-2015 Retina are one model number
2016 and 2017 Touch Bar are a second
2018 and 2019 Touch Bar/ T2 are a third.
The 16" will be a fourth

The only one of the 7 model numbers leaked in Europe we've seen so far is the new 13" MBP.

 

[jimmy43]

I have a good feeling that the keyboard and screen size won’t be the only big features of the new 16”. We know that Apple created a “Pro focused” R&D team back when the iMac pro first came out. This pro focused team also apparently had a pretty big part in the development for the new Mac Pro and Pro display as well. Both of which are very cutting edge products. Pricing aside, the new Mac Pro is a step forward in every direction and it also shows a different attitude from Apple. If this new Pro focused R&D team is also involved in the development of the new MacBook Pro (which I think it’s very safe to assume they are), then we will probably get a product that is far and above what the current generation is.

I’m guessing 6gb Navi GPUs, very good ventilation, brighter display with HDR ability and maybe even some modules components like the ability to upgrade your ram and GPU. Should be very interesting. I think we will definitely get something very impressive.

Fully agree - I'm looking forward to Apple's first *true* professional laptop in a long time. Other features I would love to have are a USB-A port, a ProMotion display (I think more likely than HDR), a 4K screen option, a no touchbar option, and 10+ core CPUs. Increasing the thickness by 2-3mm should make all that possible without it looking like a brick. In terms of design I am a big fan of the iPad pro slab with flat corners. Combine this with the Mac Pro design aesthetic with some fine machining and you have an absolute winner

 

[MrGunnyPT]

2 models of the 1.4cpu MBP 128ssd base and the 256 base and 2 new macbook air also 128 base and 256 base
So from 7 there are remaining 3

New 16" perhaps? We got a bit trolled there with the Apple Store down for maintenance

 

[TheRealAlex]

Dream MacBook Pro

#1. 4K HDR 144Hz FreeSync OLED
#2. 10nm Intel 8 Core CPU
#3. 7nm NVIDIA RTX 3070 (next year I know)
#4. New MagSafe power cord
#5. Larger battery
#6. DDR4 3600 RAM
#7. User Swappable RAM and NVME drives
#8. New FaceID sensors built in
#9. Redesigned Chasis with Glowing Apple Logo (it’s back baby) preferably RGB, which can be set to just white so shut up about RGB.
#10. New keyboard that doesn’t fail. And has more travel.

 

[pshufd]

Dream MacBook Pro

#1. 4K HDR 144Hz FreeSync OLED
#2. 10nm Intel 8 Core CPU
#3. 7nm NVIDIA RTX 3070 (next year I know)
#4. New MagSafe power cord
#5. Larger battery
#6. DDR4 3600 RAM
#7. User Swappable RAM and NVME drives
#8. New FaceID sensors built in
#9. Redesigned Chasis with Glowing Apple Logo (it’s back baby) preferably RGB, which can be set to just white so shut up about RGB.
#10. New keyboard that doesn’t fail. And has more travel.

Add USB Type-A ports, MiniDisplayPort, HDML, SD card.

BTW, this is pretty close to the Dell Precision 7730. No Magsafe on a Dell though.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

Dream MacBook Pro

#1. 4K HDR 144Hz FreeSync OLED
#2. 10nm Intel 8 Core CPU
#3. 7nm NVIDIA RTX 3070 (next year I know)
#4. New MagSafe power cord
#5. Larger battery
#6. DDR4 3600 RAM
#7. User Swappable RAM and NVME drives
#8. New FaceID sensors built in
#9. Redesigned Chasis with Glowing Apple Logo (it’s back baby) preferably RGB, which can be set to just white so shut up about RGB.
#10. New keyboard that doesn’t fail. And has more travel.

NVIDIA ain't happening but you could expect Navi.

 

[danwells]

That 10 nm CPU won't be here until 2021...
They aren't going back to swappable RAM and SSD (much as we'd like them to)
The GPU will be an AMD Navi
The best we can hope for on the battery is 15% larger, and that's the FAA's decision, not Apple's (no laptop will have a battery that requires permission to fly)
OLED may or may not work well on a laptop.

 

[cram501]

Fully agree - I'm looking forward to Apple's first *true* professional laptop in a long time. Other features I would love to have are a USB-A port, a ProMotion display (I think more likely than HDR), a 4K screen option, a no touchbar option, and 10+ core CPUs. Increasing the thickness by 2-3mm should make all that possible without it looking like a brick. In terms of design I am a big fan of the iPad pro slab with flat corners. Combine this with the Mac Pro design aesthetic with some fine machining and you have an absolute winner

I hope you're right. Considering the prices of the iMac Pro and the Mac Pro, I'm worried about what Apple will charge. Hopefully the new keyboard will not have issues and I look forward to better cooling.

Either way, if they create a laptop for a "true pro" that costs $5000+, it'll be another niche product since the premium (for me anyways) won't be worth it.

 

[pshufd]

I hope you're right. Considering the prices of the iMac Pro and the Mac Pro, I'm worried about what Apple will charge. Hopefully the new keyboard will not have issues and I look forward to better cooling.

Either way, if they create a laptop for a "true pro" that costs $5000+, it'll be another niche product since the premium (for me anyways) won't be worth it.

That's the price range of mobile workstations though - and it seems that Apple is very late to that game.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

That 10 nm CPU won't be here until 2021...
They aren't going back to swappable RAM and SSD (much as we'd like them to)
The GPU will be an AMD Navi
The best we can hope for on the battery is 15% larger, and that's the FAA's decision, not Apple's (no laptop will have a battery that requires permission to fly)
OLED may or may not work well on a laptop.

I don't know about 10nm since they wanna push it first for mobile products.. Apple, Dell, MSI, HP and etc.. they have all been nagging Intel about it

 

[awesomedeluxe]

It would be something more than the 15", while also replacing the 15" in a year's time...

It can't have new processors, because there aren't any (and there may not be until 2021?).
It will hopefully have new GPUs (existing Vega as base, new Vega or Navi option).
It will have a new, higher-resolution screen (I agree with those hoping for 4K)
It will have a new keyboard
It will hopefully have better cooling
It may offer 64 GB of RAM as an (expensive) option?

The market for the old 15" will be split among two or three machines. One is the new 16", of course, which will capture the core creative market for the 15" All of us who've been saying "I'd be happy with another half-pound if it meant better cooling, a new keyboard and a bit more GPU" will love the 16". It'll still be a relatively thin and light machine, but not as extreme. It will compete with machines like HP's ZBook Studio and Lenovo's P1 a little better than it does now.

I don't think we're looking at a full-power 6 lb ZBook 15 or Lenovo P53 competitor - there's too little those machines can do that their 4.5 lb counterparts can't anymore (wired Ethernet without a dongle and spinning disks are about the only two differentiators left). This is a ~4.5 lb machine - fast, powerful and still very portable.

The second option for old 15" customers will be the 13" MBP, especially if it becomes the 14" MBP. It's already a quad-core, and may have hex-core options with Intel's next processor generation (28W 6-core processors and/or 28W quad-core processors with radically improved graphics both look more likely than a major improvement at 45W).

The third option is a new machine Apple may have in development. I'm guessing (and this is no more than a guess) that one of the mysterious model numbers is something big and thin - a 3 lb 15" machine? Call it a MacBook Air or a MacBook - it really doesn't matter. 15W quad-core with integrated graphics, but a nice big screen...

It's also possible that the new 16" laptop stays the same size and weight (4lbs) as the current 15" and the other machines shrink. The 16" would be in a chassis roughly the size of the current 15", with the screen expanding into the bezels. But Apple could also release 15" and 13" models that literally trim the bezels off the device to create smaller, lighter machines.

The 16" uses a 45W, 8-core Intel 14nm+++ processor, or a Zen 2 part, paired with a discrete GPU.

The 15" uses a 28W Ice Lake part paired with a discrete GPU.

The 13" uses a 28W Ice Lake part with an Intel GPU.

This next conjecture is more in the realm of fantasy, but in response to Kuo's comments about the 15"/13" having scissor switches (but no word on the 16"): the 16" could further differentiate itself with a slim mechanical keyboard using the Cherry MX Low Profile switches.

 

[pshufd]

This next conjecture is more in the realm of fantasy, but in response to Kuo's comments about the 15"/13" having scissor switches (but no word on the 16"): the 16" could further differentiate itself with a slim mechanical keyboard using the Cherry MX Low Profile switches.

They could add $300 to the price for the Cherry MX. The problem is which Cherry color? I prefer Blues myself but they aren't great in an open office.

 

[danwells]

I've wondered about an ultra low profile mechanical keyboard - almost certainly with Apple switches, not Cherry (if they licensed them/had them manufactured by Cherry, they'd be a custom design rather than a "color" switch anyone can buy)... I'd think they'd pick a silent, very typing-oriented (as opposed to gaming-oriented) switch. What's popular in the compact "hacker" keyboards that a lot of developers use? Are any of them silent or nearly so?

Ice Lake is definitely coming to mobile first - but the road maps I've seen show all the 5 to 15 watt parts, and quite possibly the 28 watt parts, especially stuff that's pushed up to 28 watts by much more capable iGPUs. They make little or no mention of anything above that - I've never seen it stated explicitly, but the strong implication is that 45 watt notebook chips are on the desktop chip timeline (mid to late 2021 or later).

I have seen direct references to yet another generation of 14nm++++++++++ 45 watt notebook chips next summer, and possibly even to one beyond that (the 2021 generation is far enough out on the timeline that it is not completely clear that it isn't 10 nm, but the 2020 generation is clearly marked as 14nm).

From Intel's viewpoint, that makes sense - they have exactly one important customer for 45 watt notebook chips - Apple. Dell, Lenovo and HP all buy a few for mobile workstations, but the entire workstation market (desktop and mobile combined) is significantly smaller than the MacBook Pro market. I'm not sure how they count a "workstation", but Statista puts it at a couple of million units annually - estimates I've seen on the MBP are 5-8 million units annually (that includes both 13" and 15", of course). Since many workstations are desktop and some mobile workstations are 28 watt, a guess on sales of 45 watt mobile workstations (not counting the MBP 15") is half a million units annually?

Of course, a few 45 watt CPUs also go into high-end gaming laptops, but those numbers are as small as the workstations... Razer has never sold 100,000 computers in a year, for example (and many of rthose are 13", using 28 watt chips).

I wouldn't be at all surprised if 2/3 or 3/4 of 45 watt mobile CPU sales are to Apple (this is also why AMD's in no hurry to enter that space).

 

[pshufd]

I've wondered about an ultra low profile mechanical keyboard - almost certainly with Apple switches, not Cherry (if they licensed them/had them manufactured by Cherry, they'd be a custom design rather than a "color" switch anyone can buy)... I'd think they'd pick a silent, very typing-oriented (as opposed to gaming-oriented) switch. What's popular in the compact "hacker" keyboards that a lot of developers use? Are any of them silent or nearly so?

Ice Lake is definitely coming to mobile first - but the road maps I've seen show all the 5 to 15 watt parts, and quite possibly the 28 watt parts, especially stuff that's pushed up to 28 watts by much more capable iGPUs. They make little or no mention of anything above that - I've never seen it stated explicitly, but the strong implication is that 45 watt notebook chips are on the desktop chip timeline (mid to late 2021 or later).

I have seen direct references to yet another generation of 14nm++++++++++ 45 watt notebook chips next summer, and possibly even to one beyond that (the 2021 generation is far enough out on the timeline that it is not completely clear that it isn't 10 nm, but the 2020 generation is clearly marked as 14nm).

From Intel's viewpoint, that makes sense - they have exactly one important customer for 45 watt notebook chips - Apple. Dell, Lenovo and HP all buy a few for mobile workstations, but the entire workstation market (desktop and mobile combined) is significantly smaller than the MacBook Pro market. I'm not sure how they count a "workstation", but Statista puts it at a couple of million units annually - estimates I've seen on the MBP are 5-8 million units annually (that includes both 13" and 15", of course). Since many workstations are desktop and some mobile workstations are 28 watt, a guess on sales of 45 watt mobile workstations (not counting the MBP 15") is half a million units annually?

Of course, a few 45 watt CPUs also go into high-end gaming laptops, but those numbers are as small as the workstations... Razer has never sold 100,000 computers in a year, for example (and many of rthose are 13", using 28 watt chips).

I wouldn't be at all surprised if 2/3 or 3/4 of 45 watt mobile CPU sales are to Apple (this is also why AMD's in no hurry to enter that space).

If by compact, you mean the TenKeyLess, then those are my preference. I have two of them in the office and they make it easier to have multiple keyboards on your desk. If you mean by half-height or shorter, I have no experience with them. I did read a video review of one of them that was somewhat negative.

I personally like a lot of travel, a lot of noise and a lot of feedback. I'm not a gamer outside of playing chess. But I have my own office so I'm not disturbing other people. If you're in an open office, clicky is not the way to go unless everyone else routinely wear headphones. I'd be curious to try one but you usually get these things online and there aren't places where you can go play around with them. It's possible that Best Buy has them to try out but I'd want my home or office ergonomic setup to test it out.

Razor makes their own switches so Apple certainly could as well. There are some benefits to Cherry though. You can replace keycaps, switches, etc. You can get different keycaps too.

I'm a bit surprised that the MacBook Pro market is greater than the entire workstation market unless you're excluding products like the Dell XPS 13 and 15. The Dell Precision 7730 would be a benchmark mobile workstation and it comes with a 240 Watt PSU and maxes at $12K and I have no problems calling that a mobile workstation. I wouldn't put the Dell XPS 13 and 15 in that class though. I don't really consider Apple to be in that class. You can put Xeons and maybe even desktop chips in that class of machine.

 

[awesomedeluxe]

I don't know if Apple or anyone can make mechanical keyboards quiet, and it's a big reason they haven't caught on in the mobile space. Here's a review of what's popular right now--the video does not make it seem very quiet.

@danwells if you have a more recent roadmap than the one from back in April could you link it? I was recalling this slide that promised 28W Ice Lake.

I do think Apple is stuck with 14nm+++ for the alleged 16". But a 10nm 28W processor might make sense for the 15" if they're shrinking it in all dimensions. Looking at Zen 2's performance, not asking AMD to make them a 45W for the 16" just feels like a mistake at this point... lopping two cores off the 3700X and downclocking it a bit to get a 45W part would have been totally viable.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

I've wondered about an ultra low profile mechanical keyboard - almost certainly with Apple switches, not Cherry (if they licensed them/had them manufactured by Cherry, they'd be a custom design rather than a "color" switch anyone can buy)... I'd think they'd pick a silent, very typing-oriented (as opposed to gaming-oriented) switch. What's popular in the compact "hacker" keyboards that a lot of developers use? Are any of them silent or nearly so?

Ice Lake is definitely coming to mobile first - but the road maps I've seen show all the 5 to 15 watt parts, and quite possibly the 28 watt parts, especially stuff that's pushed up to 28 watts by much more capable iGPUs. They make little or no mention of anything above that - I've never seen it stated explicitly, but the strong implication is that 45 watt notebook chips are on the desktop chip timeline (mid to late 2021 or later).

I have seen direct references to yet another generation of 14nm++++++++++ 45 watt notebook chips next summer, and possibly even to one beyond that (the 2021 generation is far enough out on the timeline that it is not completely clear that it isn't 10 nm, but the 2020 generation is clearly marked as 14nm).

From Intel's viewpoint, that makes sense - they have exactly one important customer for 45 watt notebook chips - Apple. Dell, Lenovo and HP all buy a few for mobile workstations, but the entire workstation market (desktop and mobile combined) is significantly smaller than the MacBook Pro market. I'm not sure how they count a "workstation", but Statista puts it at a couple of million units annually - estimates I've seen on the MBP are 5-8 million units annually (that includes both 13" and 15", of course). Since many workstations are desktop and some mobile workstations are 28 watt, a guess on sales of 45 watt mobile workstations (not counting the MBP 15") is half a million units annually?

Of course, a few 45 watt CPUs also go into high-end gaming laptops, but those numbers are as small as the workstations... Razer has never sold 100,000 computers in a year, for example (and many of rthose are 13", using 28 watt chips).

I wouldn't be at all surprised if 2/3 or 3/4 of 45 watt mobile CPU sales are to Apple (this is also why AMD's in no hurry to enter that space).

Well I wouldn't be surprised either because at the end of the day.. The mobile segment is what makes things moving for the consumer sector.

 

[pshufd]

I don't know if Apple or anyone can make mechanical keyboards quiet, and it's a big reason they haven't caught on in the mobile space. Here's a review of what's popular right now--the video does not make it seem very quiet.

@danwells if you have a more recent roadmap than the one from back in April could you link it? I was recalling this slide that promised 28W Ice Lake.

I do think Apple is stuck with 14nm+++ for the alleged 16". But a 10nm 28W processor might make sense for the 15" if they're shrinking it in all dimensions. Looking at Zen 2's performance, not asking AMD to make them a 45W for the 16" just feels like a mistake at this point... lopping two cores off the 3700X and downclocking it a bit to get a 45W part would have been totally viable.

Cherry makes quiet and clicky switches. They make them with differing weights and travel too.

The desktop mobile companies are putting in the 9th gen this year. So 10th gen wouldn't be there until at least next year. I'd guess that the real mobile workstations could use processors with higher thermal limits than the 10th gens illustrated.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

Cherry makes quiet and clicky switches. They make them with differing weights and travel too.

The desktop mobile companies are putting in the 9th gen this year. So 10th gen wouldn't be there until at least next year. I'd guess that the real mobile workstations could use processors with higher thermal limits than the 10th gens illustrated.

I have RGB Strafe with Silent switches and they are quite amazing I must say.