Waiting for the 2020 MBP

[09872738]

Why do people keep repeating that?

My first guess: People are unaware of the rebuild button

 

[Useless Touchbar]

Why can't they just release the new 13/14" already? Don't they have an idea how many people are waiting for this machine?

 

[tothemoonsands]

I'd like an ARM Macbook as long as Adobe Creative Cloud is ready to go with all the heavy hitters on Day 1 (Photoshop, Illustrator, InDesign, After Effects, Audition, Premiere Pro, Dreamweaver, and Media Encoder)

 

[apple.fan]

So i’m finally going to replace my 2010 Macbook Pro with a new MacBook Pro 16” (very excited!!). I use it for basic stuff but normally have many tabs opened at same time, some medical 3D apps, several apps open at same time but nothing “heavy”. I don’t think i need the i9 but was wondering if i should upgrade graphics to 8gb because i would like to keep it for a long time like i did with this one.
What do you guys think?

 

[bosozoku]

All my CAD soft (AutoCad, Rhino3D) unlikely be moved to ARM, so either Apple did a good x86 interpreter or I am moving to Lenovo ThinkPad camp

 

[tothemoonsands]

So i’m finally going to replace my 2010 Macbook Pro with a new MacBook Pro 16” (very excited!!). I use it for basic stuff but normally have many tabs opened at same time, some medical 3D apps, several apps open at same time but nothing “heavy”. I don’t think i need the i9 but was wondering if i should upgrade graphics to 8gb because i would like to keep it for a long time like i did with this one.
What do you guys think?

In 2017, I went all out on the MBP 15" 2017 - basically fully spec'd - with the full intention of keeping it for a long time. But, in that time, things changed for me. I still have same workload (creative apps, etc.), but portability became increasingly important. So my advice is to go all out with the i9 IF you are 100% confident that none of your needs/desires will change (will you want some new feature in a year or two? will your workload change? etc.). If you aren't 100% sure, then in my opinion it is better to select the bare minimum of what you need now + 1-2 years. That results in money saved for the next time you'll want to upgrade, which may be sooner than you think.

 

[PeterJP]

but was wondering if i should upgrade graphics to 8gb because i would like to keep it for a long time like i did with this one.

If you don't see yourself working with lots of 3D with very complex textures, or with complex AI, then at this moment, the 8gb GPU doesn't make a difference. 3D medical is usually not that complex (there are very complex 3D applications in medical but they're an exception) at this moment. Maybe that may change? If you're looking at keeping it for 10 years again, the extra €120 for the 8gb upgrade is a no-brainer.

Do make sure that you spec out memory and storage as well: these are things that are still used increasingly fast. 32gb-1tb at least for future proofing.

Enjoy the machine!

 

[awesomedeluxe]

We’ll probably know more about a potential ARMbook after WWDC, since Apple would likely release tools for developers ahead of release.

App compatibility won't be won’t be a catastrophe but the first year will still suck. The bigger question is whether or not code execution is locked down like in iOS. Imagine waiting a year for MS Office compatibility only for it to launch exclusively as a service through the app store.

On the upside, these machines could be absolutely monster performers. I think people already understand the upside in smaller machines, but for bigger builds, you can redirect all that power you're no longer using to the GPU. You can put a real heavy hitter in a machine the size of the 16" when your CPU uses 15W max under heavy load.

 

[apple.fan]

In 2017, I went all out on the MBP 15" 2017 - basically fully spec'd - with the full intention of keeping it for a long time. But, in that time, things changed for me. I still have same workload (creative apps, etc.), but portability became increasingly important. So my advice is to go all out with the i9 IF you are 100% confident that none of your needs/desires will change (will you want some new feature in a year or two? will your workload change? etc.). If you aren't 100% sure, then in my opinion it is better to select the bare minimum of what you need now + 1-2 years. That results in money saved for the next time you'll want to upgrade, which may be sooner than you think.

Well i’m 100% sure this will have to last for many years but unfortunately i don’t have the budget to buy a maxed out Mac. I think i will spend the extra 240€ on the 8gb graphics and keep the 16gb RAM. Also updating for 1Tb. Hope the 16gb will be enough for the time to come.
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If you don't see yourself working with lots of 3D with very complex textures, or with complex AI, then at this moment, the 8gb GPU doesn't make a difference. 3D medical is usually not that complex (there are very complex 3D applications in medical but they're an exception) at this moment. Maybe that may change? If you're looking at keeping it for 10 years again, the extra €120 for the 8gb upgrade is a no-brainer.

Do make sure that you spec out memory and storage as well: these are things that are still used increasingly fast. 32gb-1tb at least for future proofing.

Enjoy the machine!

I think i will upgrade the 8gb like you said thank you and the 1tb was already decided also. The 32gb of RAM i don’t think i will be able to upgrade because it’s 480€ more. Do you think i will regret it much? Hope it will be enough for the use i give it.

 

[PeterJP]

I think i will upgrade the 8gb like you said thank you and the 1tb was already decided also. The 32gb of RAM i don’t think i will be able to upgrade because it’s 480€ more. Do you think i will regret it much? Hope it will be enough for the use i give it.

In your situation, if you're planning to replace it in 3 years' time, 16gb is most likely sufficient. Beyond that, the extra €240 to upgrade RAM instead of GPU RAM will most likely be a better bet.

 

[apple.fan]

In your situation, if you're planning to replace it in 3 years' time, 16gb is most likely sufficient. Beyond that, the extra €240 to upgrade RAM instead of GPU RAM will most likely be a better bet.

But 240€ it’s not enough to upgrade RAM, you need 480€ to update to 32GB.

 

[livetofail]

What are the chances for seeing a MBP 16” CPU refresh alongside with the upcoming 13”?
The 16” still has the same CPU than the newest 15” so its not that crazy to assume it...

 

[Falhófnir]

What are the chances for seeing a MBP 16” CPU refresh alongside with the upcoming 13”?
The 16” still has the same CPU than the newest 15” so its not that crazy to assume it...

The 16" already uses the latest i7-9750H and i9-9880H CPUs, as yet there's no 10th gen (comet lake) equivalents available.

 

[livetofail]

Oh ? I thought they’d be already released, my mistake.

 

[gazwas]

Oh ? I thought they’d be already released, my mistake.

Intel announced 10th Gen Comet Lake processors in January suitable for the 16" MBP. Rumours speculate availability will be March to jump the release of AMD's new mobile offerings.

Looks to be a very marginal performance upgrade after looking at the initial details. Basically the same as the current CPU's but with a increase in clock speed.

 

[tothemoonsands]

Will this be the month we see the new 13”? ?

 

[eulslix]

So, how high do you estimate the chance of Apple releasing a redesigned MBP 15/16 by the end of this year (closing the 4 year cycle)? I know, there is no way to reliably tell other than waiting it out, but I'd just like to assess the situation.

So far we have a sketchy rumor about a possible Gaming MBP, a rumored Mini-LED MBP at the end of the year, new AMD RDNA 2 GPUs, a possibility for an AMD based MBP and 10th gen intel CPUs coming up. All of this can either lead up to an incremental update or a complete redesign (which so far there hasn't been any word of yet, the closest being the Mini LED display)

 

[awesomedeluxe]

So, how high do you estimate the chance of Apple releasing a redesigned MBP 15/16 by the end of this year (closing the 4 year cycle)? I know, there is no way to reliably tell other than waiting it out, but I'd just like to assess the situation.

So far we have a sketchy rumor about a possible Gaming MBP, a rumored Mini-LED MBP at the end of the year, new AMD RDNA 2 GPUs, a possibility for an AMD based MBP and 10th gen intel CPUs coming up. All of this can either lead up to an incremental update or a complete redesign (which so far there hasn't been any word of yet, the closest being the Mini LED display)

I don't think the 15/16" will be substantially redesigned. The new 2019 chassis is adequate for a gaming Macbook if Apple does decide to go that route. And it's not necessary to redesign the machine to use a Mini LED display.

There's no real difference between what Apple is using in the machine right now and Intel's 10th gen Comet Lake. If Apple does update to 10th gen, it will probably be a silent update, and the biggest feature of that update would be Wifi 6. That could happen soon.

Everything interesting would be at the end of the year or next year.

We don't know a lot about Intel's Rocket Lake or when it will be available. Presuming that it is a backport of Willow Cove cores, it will be a big CPU update. Or it could just be Skylake again. It's slated for "Q4 2020 or H1 2021."

Likewise, AMD might have RDNA2 graphics available for Apple this year. AMD's RDNA2 plans are also a bit of a question mark at this point. The priority for that team is Sony/MS.

I will say that I no longer think an AMD APU is likely. It is a better fit for the MBP 15/16 than the smaller machine. But we have more information about CPU idle draw now, it's not particularly good, and the issue can't be solved in the next APU (Van Gogh). See you in the Waiting for the 2021 MBP when we discuss Rembrandt!

 

[ross1998]

I strongly doubt apple would release a "gaming" macbook.

 

[DanMan619]

I don't think the 15/16" will be substantially redesigned. The new 2019 chassis is adequate for a gaming Macbook if Apple does decide to go that route. And it's not necessary to redesign the machine to use a Mini LED display.

There's no real difference between what Apple is using in the machine right now and Intel's 10th gen Comet Lake. If Apple does update to 10th gen, it will probably be a silent update, and the biggest feature of that update would be Wifi 6. That could happen soon.

Everything interesting would be at the end of the year or next year.

We don't know a lot about Intel's Rocket Lake or when it will be available. Presuming that it is a backport of Willow Cove cores, it will be a big CPU update. Or it could just be Skylake again. It's slated for "Q4 2020 or H1 2021."

Likewise, AMD might have RDNA2 graphics available for Apple this year. AMD's RDNA2 plans are also a bit of a question mark at this point. The priority for that team is Sony/MS.

I will say that I no longer think an AMD APU is likely. It is a better fit for the MBP 15/16 than the smaller machine. But we have more information about CPU idle draw now, it's not particularly good, and the issue can't be solved in the next APU (Van Gogh). See you in the Waiting for the 2021 MBP when we discuss Rembrandt!

I agree with your assessment. So much uncertainty this year for the MBPs. The mystery of it alone has me curious to wait to see what kind of MBP 16 refresh we get this year. Might be just the silent 10th gen with Wifi 6 update. Might or might not be Mini-LED screen. Big might, but not impossible, on the AMD stuff. My Late 2013 MBP will be able to hold another few months till i can find out.

 

[ChromeCrescendo]

I have been wanting (not necessarily needing) a new computer

I have been not-so-patiently waiting for a redesigned iMac/iMac Pro but that seems like it will never happen

I have also been looking into the MBP 16" but, I want to wait and see if Apple announces any updates to it at the March event (although, I am not sure this is likely as there really has not been any chatter about it (but, it could be a silent update)

 

[PeterJP]

But 240€ it’s not enough to upgrade RAM, you need 480€ to update to 32GB.

I said €240 to upgrade RAM instead of the GPU. So the €240 is the surplus you would pay to upgrade RAM, but to not upgrade the GPU. In my opinion, the 8gb GPU option is interesting in fringe cases only.

 

[awesomedeluxe]

I agree with your assessment. So much uncertainty this year for the MBPs. The mystery of it alone has me curious to wait to see what kind of MBP 16 refresh we get this year. Might be just the silent 10th gen with Wifi 6 update. Might or might not be Mini-LED screen. Big might, but not impossible, on the AMD stuff. My Late 2013 MBP will be able to hold another few months till i can find out.

It's just such an exciting time for computing, after years of nothing, we're suddenly seeing year-after-year of huge improvements across all areas. My retina 2012 is chugging along just fine and we're gonna weather the storm until the end because I can't wait to see what's next.

Of course, the main worry will be that, while Intel was much faster than PowerPC so it could emulate the PowerPC. The worry is then that the ARM will never be able to achieve that. I think the worry is well founded. But when we look back at Rosetta, reviews read: "Rosetta that allowed all but a few PowerPC-based programs to run on Intel machines—but with a noticeable performance hit... much slower for particularly processor-intensive programs such as Photoshop." (MacWorld 2006) or "Rosetta should be more than adequate when it comes to general-purpose office apps, but for the heavy-duty stuff like Photoshop and other CPU-intensive applications, you'll notice a slowdown. Some reportedly won't launch at all, like Final Cut Pro 5 and Logic 7" (Ars Technica 2006). It will be interesting to see what sort of single core speeds the Apple ARM will reach. If the iPad Pro is any indication, it seems to be doing OK, with the obvious sidenote that, like Rosetta, Intel apps will get a speed impact.

I missed this earlier, but I think this is a great take. However, there is an easy solution to this problem. I'd like to refer you to the following risk-assessment chart which I snagged directly from Tim Cook's airdrop:

Providing an x86 Emulator on our ARMBooks	Doing absolutely nothing at all
Disastrous performance makes ppl think our machines are bad Years of dev for a project we will maintain for a year tops Disincentivizes developers from updating their apps	nice

 

[ChineseBots]

Kuo said that Apple is working on a 14.1'' MBP with mini LED and will out this year
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Kuo said that Apple is working on a 14.1'' MBP with mini LED and will out this year

also there will a 16'' MBP upgrade

 

[Falhófnir]

So there's finally some solid basis for 14" speculation to build upon! Sounds to me like it will be a late 2020 launch alongside the mini LED 16"?