And unless CNN got this from apple (did they?) I would not trust them.
If they DO have a million though I would be very happy and sleep in on friday.
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Waiting In Line Probably not Necessary
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And unless CNN got this from apple (did they?) I would not trust them.
If they DO have a million though I would be very happy and sleep in on friday.
I am predicting that by 6pm Friday there will be enough people in line to sell out all the iPhones.
Also Apple shouldn't even bother with 4GB models in this initial release. Us early adopters will surely pay an extra hundred to get our hands on the precious.
Also Apple shouldn't even bother with 4GB models in this initial release. Us early adopters will surely pay an extra hundred to get our hands on the precious.
And unless CNN got this from apple (did they?) I would not trust them.
If they DO have a million though I would be very happy and sleep in on friday.
Think about it they had a working unit when steve announced it back in jan. so lets say that the hardware was done, and they have been making units since Jan. so you say "that cant be true they have been improving the software since". BUT! according to some reports that buyers will not be activating in Apple stores and many various reports that the same will be going on at AT&T stores. That all activation will take place where?? on iTunes ..... and what can iTunes do for the iPhone besides oviously activate and unlock the iPhone? Download and update the iPhone. makes sence to me and I dont see how they could not produce,box,prepair,ship2usa,and store 1million+ units??
And unless CNN got this from apple (did they?) I would not trust them.
If they DO have a million though I would be very happy and sleep in on friday.
I believe their souce was a Beta tester that they interviewed.
Ahh. interesting.
Although I have to quibble a bit:
They could not start making these until FCC approval becuase they may have been asked to make a change to the hardware.
I do hope it is a million units though...
Don't forget that Apple didn't get FCC approval for the unit until about 2 months ago. I really don't see a company taking a huge risk at producing units until they had approval. Lets say they had to make some major design change, now they just lost millions upon millions and they have to remake all those devices.
I don't believe anything higher then 300,000 units, unless I hear it (or see it) on Apples website. CNN and all these news sites are getting leaks and/or rumors about shipment numbers, and thats all it is ... rumors.
Could they not pre manufacture parts? and wait on assembly? and if FCC had an issue re run the corresponding peice through production and make the change? Just speculating here on how they could make 1million+units pre-launch. becuase if they had to wait on FCC aprovial to manufacture the iPhone that would of left them with a little over a month to make, pack, prepair,and ship X amount of iPhones.
Maybe some parts of the supply chain. But then you have to put in guarentees to your suppliers to make X parts before the FCC approval and I bet it would add a lot of costs to each part cost.
I'm with dev toaster. Based on the timeline we are problem looking at 300400K BUT They prob. ramped up things really well now and that number of a million be an end of summer or end of july number...
There are about 2000 stores that will be selling the iPhone come friday, about 1,800 AT&T with the rest being Apple retail stores.
If we assume
Then they have to produce about 7,500 phones a day (about 30 an hour) to get to 300,000 phones. This breaks down to 150 phones per location, and completely ignores the online store. Given the reports that have come out Apple's supplier may have been able to do many more phones.
IIRC analysts best projections have Apple selling 3 million phones over the next six months, not having 3 million ready on release.
Do what you want with it, I'm pulling numbers out of thin air. But at least I admit it.
If we assume
- There were 40 days from FCC approval to tomorrow
- The factory is working 24/7 for that whole time
Then they have to produce about 7,500 phones a day (about 30 an hour) to get to 300,000 phones. This breaks down to 150 phones per location, and completely ignores the online store. Given the reports that have come out Apple's supplier may have been able to do many more phones.
IIRC analysts best projections have Apple selling 3 million phones over the next six months, not having 3 million ready on release.
Do what you want with it, I'm pulling numbers out of thin air. But at least I admit it.
I think the only numbers we will hear will be on Monday morning of how many were sold.
I just don't see Apple letting the cat out of the bag.
If they tell people the number is way high you run the risk of the frenzy dying down since there will be plenty to go around. Tell people the number is to low and you will get crucified for not being prepared, which will lead to the eBay scum coming out of the woodwork.
so lets think about this... even so lets say they have 300k units. now some one else said that some odd 1500 AT&T stores would have the iPhone on friday and there are 150?? apple stores? so lets say 1800 AT&T stores (for fluff) and well keep the apple stores at 150. so 1850 stores and for giggles lets just say they are all recieving equal stock. that equates out to 162.1 iPhones PER STORE! now i know not all store will be stocked evenly, But that sure makes me feel much better about my chances on Friday.
EDIT: looks like macaddicted beat me to the punch! X_X
Yes. Even on the low end.. some stores 100 some 200, if you show up in the afternoon, you prob. have a great chance of getting one. 200 people in line is a long line for a $600 device with a 2 year contract.)
Now will they have enough apple bluetooth headsets... ????
Or a case I like in the store
I'll let you know friday.
Yes. Even on the low end.. some stores 100 some 200, if you show up in the afternoon, you prob. have a great chance of getting one. 200 people in line is a long line for a $600 device with a 2 year contract.)
Now will they have enough apple bluetooth headsets... ????
Or a case I like in the store
I'll let you know friday.
OMG THEY JUST SAID ON CNN that apple has 6.8 million iPhone bluetooth headsets ready for iPhone launch...... LOL j/k
Man I wasnt even thinking about the headset... so now I guess its a RACE to see if you can get any accessories with your iPhone.
300 phones per store would be massive. I think it would be highly unlikely that most stores would sell through that much inventory. Remember the problem with Wiis, and PS3s etc had to do with how many locations were selling them. Many fold more then will be selling iPhones.
So even with the same numbers of units to sell, say 400000 there is only a fraction of the retail locations.
300 units would be about $165,000 sales. For the AT&T stores that would likely be a record sales day for every single AT&T store out there by a long way.
I think if they have anywhere from 300,000-500,000 available in the stores on Friday, most of us will be able to get one. Just my feeling. Then if they have more held back for online orders we should all be in very good shape.
I am just having a hard time making the numbers work in my head where they will be sold out across the country in a few hours. I just don't think the demand is high enough, and plenty of people will be willing to wait and see. The hype is good for media coverage, but I am still thinking it will not be terribly difficult to get one on Friday and Saturday.
This is driving me crazy! I'm freaked about (possibly) not being able to get one on Friday, but a part of me says it's no big deal, you'll get it soon enough!
AGGHHHH!!!
AGGHHHH!!!
If that is true I can't see anyone wanting one not being able to get one unless you are in a podunk hooterville that has a limited supply and big demand.
Lets say they have 1 million and they split it up 60/40 for retail/online. That would be 600,000 for the stores. With 2000 retail outlets, that would be an average of 300 per store. So some stores might get 500 and some get 100 or 75 whatever.
I hope it is true. To be honest I really would like to get one on Friday, but I am not going to jump through hoops to make it happen. So hopefully all of us will get the opportunity to get our hands on one Friday.
Every time I see a quantity thread I like to post my numbers (because I think I'm right).
300,000 units for retail:
180,000 for 1800 AT&T stores (avg 100/each)
100,000 for 200 Apple stores (avg 500/each)
20,000 for 40 flagship stores (another 500 each, totaling 1000)
Any extras are sitting in China waiting to be drop shipped Monday morning for online orders.
Don't get me wrong, if Apple does have 1M units I'll be happy - but I seriously doubt anything over 500,000 units ready for Friday.
300,000 units for retail:
180,000 for 1800 AT&T stores (avg 100/each)
100,000 for 200 Apple stores (avg 500/each)
20,000 for 40 flagship stores (another 500 each, totaling 1000)
Any extras are sitting in China waiting to be drop shipped Monday morning for online orders.
Don't get me wrong, if Apple does have 1M units I'll be happy - but I seriously doubt anything over 500,000 units ready for Friday.
I have called all the AT$T stores around my area and all of them say that they will most likely sell out on Friday. I live in California in between Santa Cruz and Monterey. I feel inventory will be pretty low in this area, compared to SF, San Jose etc. I can't imagine my local AT&T store (population 30,000) to get an inventory of a hundred iphones, they will probably end up with 20 at most.
If they get 20 phones they will sell out fast. The local manager said they have received well over 150 phone calls since last week. That's 21 calls an hour. This iPhone hype is crazy.
If they get 20 phones they will sell out fast. The local manager said they have received well over 150 phone calls since last week. That's 21 calls an hour. This iPhone hype is crazy.
what about those of us in places such as new york where no matter how high supply is somehow demand because of sheer quantities always outstrips it....i think getting an iphone in manhattan could be damn near impossible if you dont wait out from friday morning
I like these numbers ^_^ ... now draw up a speculation on the number of apple headsets!
Or, just go to the next (AT&T or Apple) store across the mall that has iPhones.
It's probably just one-at-a-time, get in the back of the line and buy another one!
but is there a limit on apple bluetooth headsets?????? *any one see where im going with this?*
Pretty much - even if the 5th Ave store gets 3,000 phones it'll sell out quickly.