Drive to a podunk town. a town whos population consists of the elderly
and even then if they are waiting in line chances are they are allready falling asleep.... 6pm REMEMBER?! LOL
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Waiting In Line Probably not Necessary
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and even then if they are waiting in line chances are they are allready falling asleep.... 6pm REMEMBER?! LOL
Maybe this has been said before. But why would Apple say it'll go on sale at 6 p.m. local time, when people are getting off of work, when getting an iPhone on the first day would require you to NOT GO TO WORK?
I wanna think that with the time, it's logical that they'll have enough stock and they've anticipated demand. But you'll still have loads of people there to buy thinking they can just eBay them for big $$$... (and I hope they're WRONG WRONG WRONG).
I wanna think that with the time, it's logical that they'll have enough stock and they've anticipated demand. But you'll still have loads of people there to buy thinking they can just eBay them for big $$$... (and I hope they're WRONG WRONG WRONG).
I'm with you on this one... PERSONALY I HOPE.... that reports are wrong and contracts and activations will be done instore and I hope that all these numtards who are doing this just to flogg it on ebay end up stuck with the phone/contract or cancelation fee.
*prays to chinese manufacturing gods*.... Please let there be 1 million + units
I mean, if they only made 300,000-500,000, it's not even across 2,000 stores. And somehow I doubt they'd only make that many since hype has been BIG for MONTHS. They had to have known. And AT&T wouldn't be pulling people off regular jobs to work the shops or stay open late if they thought every location would run out.
The whole 6 pm thing, to me, is a big indicator they have plenty. My fingers, however, are still crossed.
I hope that everyone here is right and that there will be plenty to go around. I remember being in a town that was one hour away from home by 5 or 6 (leaning towards 5) to get in line for a Wii. I was 14th in line and I was hoping that they had 20 (as many other places had). They had 3. I did get one exactly one week later but that is not the point. I am seriously considering saying **** work and going to the AT&T store closest to me and trying my luck there. If that doesn't pan out, I will be home in time to order online... I hope.
Very good point.
So each apple store 500?
500x200 = 100K
1800 att stores =/ 200K units (from our guess of 300K) = 111 per ATT Store.
seems about right (maybe online sales is a definate 1 week wait (they take your order but it will not ship for a week))
It's not a question of how many they want to have, but how many can they have for Friday.
As far as why sell for four hours... Perhaps it's just me, but I want to actually touch this thing before putting down $670 and signing a two year agreement. If I can't hold a box while waiting to try the in-store demo, I'll buy it, but wait to use the demo. I'm not paying $60 for the privilege of testing it out.
I'm fairly confident any Apple Store you go to will have more than enough to supply the high demand...
I'm also not too worried about the lines because I'm assuming each employee on the floor will have those super cool handheld registers for those who are paying with credit card...so I don't see myself waiting in line too long once the doors open
But that's me assuming and we all know when we assume it makes an ass out of u and me
I'm also not too worried about the lines because I'm assuming each employee on the floor will have those super cool handheld registers for those who are paying with credit card...so I don't see myself waiting in line too long once the doors open
But that's me assuming and we all know when we assume it makes an ass out of u and me
I went to my local AT&T store today to check things out (as I mentioned in another thread) and inquire upon a few things. Anyway, an AT&T representative by the name of Alex stated to me as far as crowd control is going to work is that they'll only be letting in 5-7 people in the store at a time to purchase their iPhone whilst the rest wait outside in line.
I'll be checking my local AT&T store more periodically over the next two days and see how the lines (if applicable) are doing and base my decision off that as far as what time I should begin waiting in line on Friday.
Good luck to everyone, and I hope you get your iPhone if you wish to get one on the release night!
coolosxapps
I'll be checking my local AT&T store more periodically over the next two days and see how the lines (if applicable) are doing and base my decision off that as far as what time I should begin waiting in line on Friday.
Good luck to everyone, and I hope you get your iPhone if you wish to get one on the release night!
coolosxapps
The thing to remember is Apple and AT&T do not have a good way to judge the actual demand on this. They are guessing as much as they are.
When an AT&T manager says they will be sold out, that is pure speculation unless they only have 5 units. Getting lots of phone calls and inquiries is nice, but some of the fanatics here and elsewhere seemingly call multiple AT&T stores every day asking questions about it. Plus not everyone who asks about it is going to buy one or is going to be waiting in line on launch.
300,000 phones sold in a few hours would be close to 175 million dollars in sales for Apple/AT&T. That is pretty significant. Especially when you are talking about a 4-6 hour period. So I think people need to realize that. 3 million phones would give you close to 2 billion dollars in sales in that same period of time.
On the other side of the coin, I am an eternal optimist and doing my best to convince myself I will be able to get one on Friday without an extended wait.
When an AT&T manager says they will be sold out, that is pure speculation unless they only have 5 units. Getting lots of phone calls and inquiries is nice, but some of the fanatics here and elsewhere seemingly call multiple AT&T stores every day asking questions about it. Plus not everyone who asks about it is going to buy one or is going to be waiting in line on launch.
300,000 phones sold in a few hours would be close to 175 million dollars in sales for Apple/AT&T. That is pretty significant. Especially when you are talking about a 4-6 hour period. So I think people need to realize that. 3 million phones would give you close to 2 billion dollars in sales in that same period of time.
On the other side of the coin, I am an eternal optimist and doing my best to convince myself I will be able to get one on Friday without an extended wait.
i tend to think there will be more than enough phones on friday.
my wholly unscientific, non-statistical, gibberish thinking goes like this:
last quarter they sold a little over 10 million ipods. now assume that only 20% of those were the more complex and costlier HDD ipods (2 million) then assume that with a shortened production cycle you cut production by 50% (1 million). then assume that the factory is not running at peak efficiency as this is a totally new line, say they're operating at 40% efficiency, you get 400,000 units.
it's a completely bogus way to look at it because there are so many unkowns, but it does give a little insight in to how apple can deliver millions of units per quarter.
jobs has been quoted as saying they expect to blow past the 10 million mark they set for the first 12 months which means they'll need roughly 2.5 million units per quarter just to meet the demand. if you assume that the holiday season will show the traditional 200-300% spike in demand that the ipod has the past two years then you can expect about 5 million units to shift in Q1 (holiday quarter) theoretically meaning 1.667 million for this first quarter. that's about 500,000 units per month... though is assume linear distribution which won't happen.
so lets say that the estimate is somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 divided between 1800 at&t stores and 160 apple stores. that would give you between 150-250 units per store if they were evenly distributed. i think apple stores will get the lions share, say average of 1000 for small stores and 5000 for the anchor stores in SF(1), LA(3), NY(2)
30,000 units for the anchor stores
154,000 for the rest of the apple stores
leaving between 65 and 175 units for at&t retailers.
that sounds about right. from a logistics stand point alone apple is going to shift more units that at&t, i bought a laptop and ipod in less time last week than i've bought fast food, which i can't say for at&t stores where the employees are... uhm not as fat.
apple stated in their last quarterly conference that they would be ammortizing the profits of the iphone andtv over the course of... 18 or 24 months. don't recall the exact time period. the stated reason was so they could add new features and avoid the 802.11n post-purchase enabling fee they charged. i have no idea if this it's a legitimate reason, or some accounting chicanery.
my wholly unscientific, non-statistical, gibberish thinking goes like this:
last quarter they sold a little over 10 million ipods. now assume that only 20% of those were the more complex and costlier HDD ipods (2 million) then assume that with a shortened production cycle you cut production by 50% (1 million). then assume that the factory is not running at peak efficiency as this is a totally new line, say they're operating at 40% efficiency, you get 400,000 units.
it's a completely bogus way to look at it because there are so many unkowns, but it does give a little insight in to how apple can deliver millions of units per quarter.
jobs has been quoted as saying they expect to blow past the 10 million mark they set for the first 12 months which means they'll need roughly 2.5 million units per quarter just to meet the demand. if you assume that the holiday season will show the traditional 200-300% spike in demand that the ipod has the past two years then you can expect about 5 million units to shift in Q1 (holiday quarter) theoretically meaning 1.667 million for this first quarter. that's about 500,000 units per month... though is assume linear distribution which won't happen.
so lets say that the estimate is somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 divided between 1800 at&t stores and 160 apple stores. that would give you between 150-250 units per store if they were evenly distributed. i think apple stores will get the lions share, say average of 1000 for small stores and 5000 for the anchor stores in SF(1), LA(3), NY(2)
30,000 units for the anchor stores
154,000 for the rest of the apple stores
leaving between 65 and 175 units for at&t retailers.
that sounds about right. from a logistics stand point alone apple is going to shift more units that at&t, i bought a laptop and ipod in less time last week than i've bought fast food, which i can't say for at&t stores where the employees are... uhm not as fat.
apple stated in their last quarterly conference that they would be ammortizing the profits of the iphone and
tv over the course of... 18 or 24 months. don't recall the exact time period. the stated reason was so they could add new features and avoid the 802.11n post-purchase enabling fee they charged. i have no idea if this it's a legitimate reason, or some accounting chicanery.
I am concerned about how they're going to enforce "1 per customer," if they are. Would it be possible to, after ringing up someone using 1 credit card they can enter that info into their system as "OK, no more iPhone hardware to this credit card today"?
Really hoping there's enough stock. It would be nice, though, if at least a few measures were taken to insure this wasn't going to get hijacked by eBayers as the PlayStation 3 launch did.
Really hoping there's enough stock. It would be nice, though, if at least a few measures were taken to insure this wasn't going to get hijacked by eBayers as the PlayStation 3 launch did.
I am concerned about how they're going to enforce "1 per customer," if they are. Would it be possible to, after ringing up someone using 1 credit card they can enter that info into their system as "OK, no more iPhone hardware to this credit card today"?
Really hoping there's enough stock. It would be nice, though, if at least a few measures were taken to insure this wasn't going to get hijacked by eBayers as the PlayStation 3 launch did.
One per customer means you can't put down your AMEX and buy 50 of them. I would assume once you purchase, you leave the store. If you want to go to the end of the line and get another, go nuts.
IMO there will not be that much of a crunch. Many, many people are locked in to contracts currently, and will not be willing to pay to get out, especially for such an expensive product. Yes, demand will be high, but it's easy to get a screwy perspective if you read this board too long. $500-600 with minimum $60 monthly fees, IF you're not locked in to some other contract at the moment (which would push up the price a hundred or two) is a LOT of money to many people.
FWIW, I plan to get mine online at 6:01 pm. I think shipping will be a few days at most. They are actively advertising the online store as an option to buy, so I highly doubt they will send everything to the retail stores and make online customers wait weeks.
FWIW, I plan to get mine online at 6:01 pm. I think shipping will be a few days at most. They are actively advertising the online store as an option to buy, so I highly doubt they will send everything to the retail stores and make online customers wait weeks.
i was told by the guy at my at&t store to drive by around 5pm friday and see if there's a line. he said he didnt know how many the store would get, but he guessed anywhere from 12 to 25 units. that's kinda small. there's only 4 corporate stores in town. i will probably go in the morning and wait even if i am the only one there. i'll bring a friend to sit in for me so i can go eat and such.
I've
I've talked with a few people and they've all said that apple will allow this one time that you are able to renew if you're locked into a cingular contract [2 year] that you can re-active to anotehr two years. I've been locked into my contract for about 11 months now. 110 a month for some treo stuff. thats what the cingular rep said,
and also the apple guy said the same exact thing.
I've talked with a few people and they've all said that apple will allow this one time that you are able to renew if you're locked into a cingular contract [2 year] that you can re-active to anotehr two years. I've been locked into my contract for about 11 months now. 110 a month for some treo stuff. thats what the cingular rep said,
and also the apple guy said the same exact thing.
More on the numbers thing....
I've sat down and figured a number of things out. First, the unnamed HK courrier is probably Cathay Pacific Cargo. They fly 744Fs and 742Fs. Their cargo capacity is as follows: 30 air freight palettes (L96"xW96"xH125") and 32 LD3 cargo containers.
By volume, the plane can hold 30 palettes, with each palette having about 15,000 phones, for a total of 450,000 phones per plane.
From a weight perspective, the 742F airplane can carry up to around 95T of cargo, or 190,000lbs. If each iPhone box were to weight 10oz (phone is 4oz, plus other stuff), that would mean a maximum number of 304,000 phones per plane, rounded down to 300,000 for palette packaging and tare weight.
So we can see we're weight limited, not volume limited.
Initial reports were six flights to various cities. So assuming one plane each to six cities fully loaded up would mean a maximum of 1.8M phones. Thats the extreme upper limit mind you.
I still stick by my 300,000 prediction, with 500,000 being the maximum I'd reasonably expect.
I've sat down and figured a number of things out. First, the unnamed HK courrier is probably Cathay Pacific Cargo. They fly 744Fs and 742Fs. Their cargo capacity is as follows: 30 air freight palettes (L96"xW96"xH125") and 32 LD3 cargo containers.
By volume, the plane can hold 30 palettes, with each palette having about 15,000 phones, for a total of 450,000 phones per plane.
From a weight perspective, the 742F airplane can carry up to around 95T of cargo, or 190,000lbs. If each iPhone box were to weight 10oz (phone is 4oz, plus other stuff), that would mean a maximum number of 304,000 phones per plane, rounded down to 300,000 for palette packaging and tare weight.
So we can see we're weight limited, not volume limited.
Initial reports were six flights to various cities. So assuming one plane each to six cities fully loaded up would mean a maximum of 1.8M phones. Thats the extreme upper limit mind you.
I still stick by my 300,000 prediction, with 500,000 being the maximum I'd reasonably expect.
Yea, I mentioned the dimensions - 96x96x125 - so 125" tall.Those are gonna be some taaaaaallll palettes.
I don't think it will be a problem at all, I mean not everyone is going to buy it, and not only that, but only people that are in forums talking about the iPhone know more details about this iPhone and the average person might not even know when and what time it will be out,price, specs and more. Some areas will probably sell out and some won't. You also gotta think about the poor areas in the USA and most people are in contracts and cannot afford the phone and are scared of Macs and the money paid each month.
Apple has been really advertising this phone more than the wii or PS3 ever had. So if Apple wants to sell they would only keep making more and more.
If they ran out, people that wanted a phone would have to wait or maybe even change their mind which means money loss for Apple and ATT. Some people are also lazy and want to order online. Some people will not buy because they are not into apple or the new iPhone because one of their friends said something so ignorant about it and will make them be skeptical about it. idunno! iwhatever ihappens! iwill!! ihappen!!!
We will see, but idoubt it.
Apple has been really advertising this phone more than the wii or PS3 ever had. So if Apple wants to sell they would only keep making more and more.
If they ran out, people that wanted a phone would have to wait or maybe even change their mind which means money loss for Apple and ATT. Some people are also lazy and want to order online. Some people will not buy because they are not into apple or the new iPhone because one of their friends said something so ignorant about it and will make them be skeptical about it. idunno! iwhatever ihappens! iwill!! ihappen!!!
We will see, but idoubt it.
are you really already camped out? if so bravo!
where are you camped and why did you go to at&t store instead of apple if you want to do this for the experience, which it sort of seems like since you are there now making sure you are the first?
well, check my sig for my iLine blog- and I'm at an AT&T store because my local Apple store is in a mall, with my closest one that is NOT in a mall being 1hr.30min away. So I'll have a good time at AT&T and not have to wait 1.5hrs to get my new baby home
. We are going to pass the 24 hr mark pretty soon!
WOOT