It’s not going to fail because Apple have the deepest pockets in the industry and they won’t let it fail. There is one reason and one reason alone why people think it will fail: it costs $3,499.
If it cost $1,000 all of the naysayers wouldn’t have anything bad to say about it. What else is wrong with it? The UI? I don’t think so. It’s too heavy? Meh… it’s not much heavier than the competition. The external battery pack? Really? That’s the best you got naysayers?
No, it’s the price that’s the problem for people and that’s it. There are second order effects of the price too - if developers don’t make apps for it, it’ll be because they think it’s too expensive to be more than a niche product.
So, no problem here that some discounting can’t solve. Apple are clearly ready for v1 to be a low volume seller as they’re not making many of them. They will be working to bring costs down for future versions to find a bigger market. If the low volume expectations for v1 become so low that they cause an existential crisis for the Vision Pro (ie. No one buys it, all developers flee) then they will work even harder to lower those costs for future versions, and I wouldn’t rule out them selling them at cost price for a while if they had to.
Vision Pro failing would be a major strategic disaster for Apple. We’re talking Tim Cook stepping down levels of disaster. This is the first major new innovative product from Apple in years. They won’t let it fail.
Ok some new points then that I will address, but perhaps this should be spun off into a new thread, because it is a subject worthwhile discussing in a lot more detail.
Whilst you make some very valid points (and points that I wholeheartedly agree with), I don't agree for one moment that the sole reason people are saying this is going to fail (or that potentially it might fail) is because of the price.
Does anyone seriously believe that the reason Meta (Quest 2 sales to date - of the order of 20 million units) are not supporting it is because it's too expensive right now, production is constrained, and maybe only half a million people will get their hands on it this year?
What about Google? Do you think they are not supporting it because of the low sales estimates?
The price and sales volumes have nothing to do with these two not supporting the Vision Pro.
Let's project a year out from now, and work on the following assumptions -
Vision Pro 2 (or just the "Vision" without the pro) has been announced.
Google through partnering with Samsung have a 4K per eye headset out.
Facebook have the Meta Quest 4K released (do you see what I did there?).
The following apps are still not available on visionOS in any form - YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, GMail, Chrome, Facebook Messenger, Google Maps, Google Sheets, Google Docs...
What then?