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ARM based MacBook Pro discussion [merged]
- Thread starter Omega Mac
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Just about everyone thinks it will be ARM. Their ARM chips are already their own design, just not appropriate for high performance machines like the iMac, iMac Pro, or MacBook Pro.
BTW, if I were looking to buy around that time, I’d probably buy the last x86 model. Apple would probably sell x86 and ARM models concurrently anyway for a while.
EugW wrote:
"BTW, if I were looking to buy around that time, I’d probably buy the last x86 model. Apple would probably sell x86 and ARM models concurrently anyway for a while."
I was thinking the same thing myself.
I may buy one of the last x86 Macs, and try to keep it going as long as possible.
Although...
I see less of a problem that Apple might change CPU's.
I see MORE of a problem in the rumors that the Mac OS will be merged into iOS -- converting the Mac into the same "walled garden" platform that the iPhone and iPad are in.
Not a place in which I'd want to be. I'm probably the only Mac user you'll ever meet who has never owned an iPhone, iPod, iPad or Apple Watch -- and probably never will.
If Apple completely ruins OS X, I might even look at Linux.
I'm wondering if it might be possible to "take Linux commercial" (I know that sounds like an oxymoron). A complete package for exiled Mac users...
"BTW, if I were looking to buy around that time, I’d probably buy the last x86 model. Apple would probably sell x86 and ARM models concurrently anyway for a while."
I was thinking the same thing myself.
I may buy one of the last x86 Macs, and try to keep it going as long as possible.
Although...
I see less of a problem that Apple might change CPU's.
I see MORE of a problem in the rumors that the Mac OS will be merged into iOS -- converting the Mac into the same "walled garden" platform that the iPhone and iPad are in.
Not a place in which I'd want to be. I'm probably the only Mac user you'll ever meet who has never owned an iPhone, iPod, iPad or Apple Watch -- and probably never will.
If Apple completely ruins OS X, I might even look at Linux.
I'm wondering if it might be possible to "take Linux commercial" (I know that sounds like an oxymoron). A complete package for exiled Mac users...
Everyone for the longest time thought Linux on the desktop was just around the corner. Unfortunately, that just never happened.*
However, *nix on the desktop did happen, in the form a FreeBSD unix derivative, called OS X (now macOS).
*Oh wait! Yes it did. It's called ChromeOS.
This story is beyond frustrating — I really do need a new computer, but I’d feel like a sap buying an Intel MBP only to have them announce a few weeeks later that the entire platform was moving to a completely different architecture.
This is such a silly move from Apple.
This is such a silly move from Apple.
1. This is far from a silly move.
2. Even if it does happen, the full migration would take years. Therefore the safest option would be to get an Intel model.
This whole ARM thing is quite interesting. I haven’t read the whole ARM thread, as it’s just too large to go through in one sitting. (I’ll probably never read the whole thing.) However, I can see why Apple would want to entertain the option to go full ARM. With Moore’s Law at its end, the prediction of nothing significant with microprocessors happening anymore by 2020, or shortly after, leaves a lot of undiscovered country out there in terms of “what’s next”. I suspect Apple has this in mind, and are going to try to capitalize on that situation.
After all, I doubt it’s mere coincidence that the rumor says that Apple will release an ARM system in 2020, the same year that noticeable advances in microprocessors are supposed to be at an end.
Also, I think we are starting to see a taste of the types of things Intel has up their sleeve with those 8th Gen i7 G-series processors with the Radeon Vega graphics.
After all, I doubt it’s mere coincidence that the rumor says that Apple will release an ARM system in 2020, the same year that noticeable advances in microprocessors are supposed to be at an end.
Also, I think we are starting to see a taste of the types of things Intel has up their sleeve with those 8th Gen i7 G-series processors with the Radeon Vega graphics.
I think the bigger reason is Apple just wants to cut out the middleman, and wants to tailor the chips for their own preferences. It's not just about chasing raw general use performance.
They've already done so with the iPad and iPhone and have proven they are pretty good chip designers. The next target is Macs.
This is exactly the kind of rumor Apple would unleash during negotiations with Intel to obtain best pricing.
Look at it this way, if Apple really were transitioning by 2020, we would be seeing huge swaths of memory controller engineers, PCIe engineers, cache engineers, etc. leave AMD and Intel for publicly posted jobs at Apple. Everything from SATA controllers to USB would have to be designed in house.
Apple is having trouble even designing their own baseband modem. I would say 2020 is a pipe dream. It's similar to their self-driving car project. Just because Apple is targeting it doesn't mean it will happen.
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Well, they already bought a chip design company a while ago, and now have some of the best ARM chip designs in the world, that they did in-house. And hell, they even do their own GPUs now.
Back during the PPC transition, Apple hadn’t poached anyone (publicly) from Intel to get it up and running. Steve was on stage and said they had been working on it for a while, and had OS X running on intel hardware at Apple, and that was when then CEO of Intel came onstage in a clean suit with a slab of silicone.
It is entirely plausible that Apple has macOS running on the newest fusion processor architecture already. They won’t just think of this kind of jump overnight.
It is entirely plausible that Apple has macOS running on the newest fusion processor architecture already. They won’t just think of this kind of jump overnight.
Of course they have macOS running on ARM already. It would be unfathomable not to have it running on ARM.
In fact, iOS is actually basically OS X in the first place. They develop iOS and macOS in parallel, and they share code.
However, until relatively recently it wasn't really feasible performance-wise to run the full macOS on ARM. The latest A11 chips are more than capable of doing this however, at least if targeting the lower end of the Mac market, like MacBooks, etc. The 2020+ timeframe will give them time to further scale up their designs to work on stuff like the MacBook Pro and iMac.
Intel has spent decades working with academia to squeeze every last drop of performance from processors. It's not something that can be bought. Apple is completely opposite, closed from the world.
If we look at the GPU front, remember how a few years ago Apple application processors like A8 were killing Snapdragon in graphics performance? The reverse is now true. Snapdragon 845 significantly outperforms A11.
Apple is good at doing many things, but they're certainly not perfect.
In order to transition to ARM and still beat Intel in performance and process technology will take a miracle by 2020.
It will be a derivative of ARM with the extensions seen used on their iPhones.
Think reunification.
All apps working on Applesauce.
Apple didn’t need to poach anyone during that transition. Their new Mac was running an Intel designed motherboard with an Intel processor on an Intel chipset. Apple had the entire x86 industry behind them.
There’s no doubt Apple has MacOS running on an A11. It’s not even up for debate. The question is how does it perform. And can Apple scale the platform and subsystems up and down for the next two or more decades.
I don't even know what that means.
No. Snapdragon 845 beats A11 in some tests, but loses to A11 in other graphics tests.
Of course.
Well, they already have beaten Intel in performance per Watt, for low power applications. Intel isn't even in the same league, and in fact they sold off part of their portfolio because they simply couldn't compete. Furthermore, for a while, Intel was basically paying companies to adopt their designs, and while a few companies did bite, Intel is still virtually non-existent in this space.
As for process technology, Intel has been on 14 nm for 4 generations now from 2014-2018. Realistically, 10 nm won't be available from Intel for the mainstream until 2019. That's about the same time frame predicted for TSMC 7 nm, which is roughly in the same ballpark density as Intel 10 nm. TSMC is Apple's fab, which means in terms of process technology, Apple has already caught up with Intel. Case in point: My MacBook runs Intel 14 nm Kaby Lake, whereas the current iPhone runs TSMC 10 nm A11 (which is roughly the same density as Intel 14 nm).
Cutting edge research comes from partnerships with academia. Not simply by buying companies and doing closed wall research the way Apple does. Intel, AMD, NVIDIA are where they are today because of partnerships with academia.
https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2017/nsf17597/nsf17597.htm
Apple went from outright beating the competition in GPU performance to trading blows with Snapdragon 845. It says quite a bit that Apple can lose the performance crown so easily in span of less than 4 years.
Everyone for the longest time thought Linux on the desktop was just around the corner. Unfortunately, that just never happened.*
However, *nix on the desktop did happen, in the form a FreeBSD unix derivative, called OS X (now macOS).
*Oh wait! Yes it did. It's called ChromeOS.
We use many flavors of Linux (Red Hat, Cent OS and Ubuntu) everyday at work. Many users have it as their main OS because it is the preference for their coding workstation. I'm in Ohio in the US. In many other countries around the world, Linux distro's being used in the workplace is becoming more common.
As for ARM being the future of Apple on their Mac's.... I'm not one to make a big deal about a rumor. I'll believe it when they announce it. Until then, I don't see how they would move away from Intel when the new i7 8705G and i7 8809G (Intel+AMD Vega) processors are available and will only improve with time. I predict all the new Mac lineup's will have some variation of the Intel+Vega combo because the Pro's have Vega 56's and 64's, the current MacBook Pro's have Pro 540's and 560's. I would think the new iMac's and MacBook Pro's will have Vega as well.
I can't see them going from the Intel+Vega setup in 2018, to their own new architecture within two years.... it seems incredibly far fetched. Apple can't even release a proper Mac Mini update within 5 years for example.
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If I am not mistaken, Apple was using PowerVR GPUs, and not their own? Their first GPU only came last year...
And their CPU performance is so far unsurpassed. Which probably wound't be the case if they did it in open collaboration. There is a reason why chip designs from major companies are closely protected secrets — its ridiculously difficult to design and very easy to copy. If you want to make money selling the chips, you have to keep it a secret.
We aren’t talking about cutting-edge here we are talking consumer grade processors, cutting edge is quantum processors and DNA storage. Apples latest ARM chips are as good as anything in the smaller notebook range. The snapdragon 845 is not as good processing wise but wins a few gpu benches, it’s also 6 mnonths newer And in 6 months time apples latest chip will be head and shoulders above again.
Apple is moving on from Intel because Intel isn’t moving anywhere
Interesting article on the possible move. Think of it; every time there're frustrations about Mac updates (like lack of updates) it's because of Intel. These last years the update cycle was not very impressive and not very fast. Meanwhile, Apple chips for iOS devices are developing at a much higher speed.
Personally, I think computing will become fully seamless between devices. Sometimes I wonder why I can't continue using a certain app when I switch from my iPhone to my MacBook. Universal apps that are a rumored topic for WWDC are a first step, using the same processor architecture is an almost inevitable next step. Should mean software is also going to be seriously revamped.
I love thinking about these possible changes and I'm excited for the future.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/3/17191986/apple-intel-cpu-processor-design-competition
Interesting article on the possible move. Think of it; every time there're frustrations about Mac updates (like lack of updates) it's because of Intel. These last years the update cycle was not very impressive and not very fast. Meanwhile, Apple chips for iOS devices are developing at a much higher speed.
Personally, I think computing will become fully seamless between devices. Sometimes I wonder why I can't continue using a certain app when I switch from my iPhone to my MacBook. Universal apps that are a rumored topic for WWDC are a first step, using the same processor architecture is an almost inevitable next step. Should mean software is also going to be seriously revamped.
I love thinking about these possible changes and I'm excited for the future.
Apple still uses a PowerVR design for A11.
Chip designs are not “closely protected secrets.” The designs are shared openly and annually at the Hot Chips symposium for example. All the major players share design strategies. Just because you know the design doesn’t mean you know HOW to make it.
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Yes, we are talking cutting edge. Read the grant info.
You’re confusing cutting edge with theoretical vs. practical applications. That’s why most research universities have separate fields of research for Applied Computer Science, Electrical Engineering, and Theoretical Computer Science. They’re not all the same thing.
With A11, reviewers are seeing it thermal throttle before even completing one round of 3DMark.
To clarify, I’m talking about mainstream usage. Coding workstations are not mainstream usage.
They don’t need to to switch over completely in 2 years. All they need to do is release a couple of models. In fact, that’s what I’d expect them to do.
I have to say - In the circles of business people I know that dual boot and virtualize Windows, this is quite a risk Apple is running if they really go down this route.
For many users, the Intel switch and optionality of Windows usage on Mac hardware was a key reason the Mac ever became a viable option for them.
Granted - We are years down the road now, but I'm not sure how different that type of users needs are vs then.
For many users, the Intel switch and optionality of Windows usage on Mac hardware was a key reason the Mac ever became a viable option for them.
Granted - We are years down the road now, but I'm not sure how different that type of users needs are vs then.