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Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
17,205
Silicon Valley, CA
All signs point to M3 based hardware very soon. Every day that goes by makes it more unlikely for Apple to launch a new flagship product on an M2.
Watch out, for many years people have always been thinking they know something newer will arrive soon, yet time and time again they get no announcements. This is also believing that M2 rumor is factual which Apple never commented on. Instead you do know Apple warned investors in November during 4Q2022, the china manufacturing impacted sales/profits and would also effect 1Q2023 efforts.
 
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dgdosen

macrumors 68030
Dec 13, 2003
2,817
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Seattle
If there is a foundry bottleneck you kind of have to stockpile if you want to satisfy the demand. I can imagine it’s a delicate balancing act, with many risks. I’m glad it’s not my job to make these decisions…
That makes me think of another point. Apple, reportedly, cut their M2 orders... Why would they do that if they're about to introduce a 15" Air, what sounds like a high-demand product?

One reason could be if TSMC persuaded them to delicately balance those chips from the N5 node and onto an N3 node, seeing as N3 node customers are hard to find...
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,521
19,674
That makes me think of another point. Apple, reportedly, cut their M2 orders... Why would they do that if they're about to introduce a 15" Air, what sounds like a high-demand product?

Or it could be that they have overestimated the demand and ended up with more M2 in stockpile than expected.

I kind of prefer your scenario though :)
 

dmccloud

macrumors 68040
Sep 7, 2009
3,142
1,899
Anchorage, AK
Watch out, for many years people have always been thinking they know something newer will arrive soon, yet time and time again they get no announcements. This is also believing that M2 rumor is factual which Apple never commented on. Instead you do know Apple warned investors in November during 4Q2022, the china manufacturing impacted sales/profits and would also effect 1Q2023 efforts.

And we're now in Q3 2023 (based on how Apple's Fiscal years are set up. Q1 was the October-December quarter.
 
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dgdosen

macrumors 68030
Dec 13, 2003
2,817
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Seattle
Watch out, for many years people have always been thinking they know something newer will arrive soon, yet time and time again they get no announcements. This is also believing that M2 rumor is factual which Apple never commented on. Instead you do know Apple warned investors in November during 4Q2022, the china manufacturing impacted sales/profits and would also effect 1Q2023 efforts.

You're right - Everyone who wants a 15" MBA shouldn't wait. Just go out and buy one now. :)
 
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Pressure

macrumors 603
May 30, 2006
5,179
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That makes me think of another point. Apple, reportedly, cut their M2 orders... Why would they do that if they're about to introduce a 15" Air, what sounds like a high-demand product?

One reason could be if TSMC persuaded them to delicately balance those chips from the N5 node and onto an N3 node, seeing as N3 node customers are hard to find...
It makes little sense to spend the time and heaps of money to retool and remask a chip designed for another node. You might as well go ahead with the planned chip for that node, in this case, probably the M3.

Unless something fundamentally is wrong with M3 🤷🏼‍♂️

Fact is Apple have had exclusive N3B fab capacity since December 2022 to churn out some chips. What would Apple be making all this time without a product in sight?
 
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Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
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Silicon Valley, CA
It makes little sense to spend the time and heaps of money to retool and remask a chip designed for another node. You might as well go ahead with the planned chip for that node, in this case, probably the M3.

Unless something fundamentally is wrong with M3 🤷🏼‍♂️

Fact is Apple have had exclusive N3B fab capacity since December 2022 to churn out some chips. What would Apple be making all this time without a product in sight?
From earlier

 

Pressure

macrumors 603
May 30, 2006
5,179
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From earlier

What point are you making? 😅

I'm sure most of all following this topic know that logical density and SRAM cell size have hit a roadblock for now.

Comparing Samsung and TSMC brings up the issue that the first is just worse at every node size so far.

TSMCvsSamsung1.jpg


TSMCvsSamsung2.jpg


TSMCvsSamsung3.jpg


Data taken from this video by Geekerwan.

 
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Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
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Silicon Valley, CA
What point are you making? 😅

I'm sure most of all following this topic know that logical density and SRAM cell size have hit a roadblock for now.

Comparing Samsung and TSMC brings up the issue that the first is just worse at every node size so far.
Not everyone realizes that there are some aspects of using the recent 3nm technology that are more challenging to accomplish than what TSMC contended with against M2 SoC’s. Its more challenging then just an annual update they take for granted. ;)
 

MayaUser

macrumors 68040
Nov 22, 2021
3,177
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So no new M3 at WWDC for the 15" Mba
Or at least not the new N3...maybe they will call it M3 but it will not be based on the future A17
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
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Silicon Valley, CA
So no new M3 at WWDC for the 15" Mba
Or at least not the new N3...maybe they will call it M3 but it will not be based on the future A17
Its only been slightly more the 10 months since the M2 13” MBA was introduced at WWDC 2022. It’s been slightly more then 3 months with M2/M2 pro Mac minis, and the 14”/16” M2 Pro/Max MBPs. So all this discussion of M3 coming at WWDC 2023 is not reality based. The initial M1 to M2 introduction was 18 months. Even if the M3 winds up being announced in October 2023 that would be 16 months later. Supposedly the A17—the first large-scale consumer chip made with TSMC’s 3nm process Is coming. But it’s not announced what the next iPhone 15 will use until September event.
 
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jdb8167

macrumors 601
Nov 17, 2008
4,859
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Its only been slightly more the 10 months since the 13” MBA was introduced at WWDC 2022. It’s been slightly more then 3 months with M2/M2 pro Mac minis, and the 14”/16” M2 Pro/Max MBPs. So all this discussion of M3 coming at WWDC 2023 is not reality based. The initial M1 to M2 introduction was 18 months. Even if the M3 winds up being announced in October 2023 that would be 16 months later. Supposedly the A17—the first large-scale consumer chip made with TSMC’s 3nm process. But it’s not announced what the next iPhone 15 will use until September event.
If Apple wants Mx Macs on a 12-month cadence then WWDC is just about right to introduce the M3. That might have been their original plan that was hindered by the supply chain crisis and COVID.
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
17,205
Silicon Valley, CA
If Apple wants Mx Macs on a 12-month cadence then WWDC is just about right to introduce the M3. That might have been their original plan that was hindered by the supply chain crisis and COVID.
While the A series ARM has been annual associated with iPhones, the Mac based SOC’s are a lot more complex to design/produce. So this topic is backwards from what we suspect represents Apple’s goals, which would to sell iPhones first.
 

jdb8167

macrumors 601
Nov 17, 2008
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While the A series ARM has been annual associated with iPhones, the Mac based SOC’s are a lot more complex to design/produce. So this topic is backwards from what we suspect represents Apple’s goals, which would to sell iPhones first.
Maybe but there is no way to know until we have more history. As people keep pointing out in this thread, Apple is manufacturing millions of N3B chips for something and it is pretty early to start stockpiling A17s in December/January for a September release.
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
17,205
Silicon Valley, CA
Maybe but there is no way to know until we have more history. As people keep pointing out in this thread, Apple is manufacturing millions of N3B chips for something and it is pretty early to start stockpiling A17s in December/January for a September release.
Apple never divulged they were stockpiling anything yet, but it’s likely they are doing that. We just don’t know any details.
 

sunny5

macrumors 68000
Jun 11, 2021
1,837
1,706
It's too clear: NO M3 chip before A17. There is no reason to release M3 based Mac earlier than iPhone and their priority is iPhone, not Mac.
 
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Boil

macrumors 68040
Oct 23, 2018
3,477
3,173
Stargate Command
Reports have N3B in mass production since the end of December 2022...

Apple is the only customer for 3nm wafers right now, so they are obviously stock piling N3B dies for something...

M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme Mac Pros at WWDC 2023 makes sense...
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
17,205
Silicon Valley, CA
Reports have N3B in mass production since the end of December 2022...

Apple is the only customer for 3nm wafers right now, so they are obviously stock piling N3B dies for something...

M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme Mac Pros at WWDC 2023 makes sense...
What reports, Digitimes and like? Like so many past reports which are factual? ;)
Some of the reports reminds us of the mixed reality rumors for WWDC 2023, and you know the present consensus of the forums concerning that.
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
17,205
Silicon Valley, CA
Here's Mark Gurmans latest. (April 16, 2023 at 6:15 AM PDT)


At least some of the new laptops will be announced at WWDC, I’ve been told. But there’s a big caveat: The models coming in June probably won’t boast major new M3 chips. Instead, they’ll run something in line with the current M2 processors.
 

dmccloud

macrumors 68040
Sep 7, 2009
3,142
1,899
Anchorage, AK
Reports have N3B in mass production since the end of December 2022...

Apple is the only customer for 3nm wafers right now, so they are obviously stock piling N3B dies for something...

M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme Mac Pros at WWDC 2023 makes sense...

If Apple sticks to the model they used with the iPhone 14 (putting A16 in the Pro and Pro Max, reusing the A15 Bionic from the 13 Pro and Pro Max for the 14 and 14 Plus), then it is possible they will drop A17 with the next Pro/Pro Max models only. Also, when it comes to Apple Silicon announcements, Apple has made the base Mx announcement first, followed by later announcements of variants such as M1 Ultra, M2 Pro/Max. It wouldn't make sense to announce an M3 Pro or Max before the M3 itself.
 

jdb8167

macrumors 601
Nov 17, 2008
4,859
4,599
What reports, Digitimes and like? Like so many past reports which are factual? ;)
Some of the reports reminds us of the mixed reality rumors for WWDC 2023, and you know the present consensus of the forums concerning that.
I don’t know the financial laws in Taiwan but I doubt that TSMC would release a press release saying that they are in high volume manufacturing if they weren’t.

Today, TSMC announced that 3nm technology has successfully entered volume production with good yields, and held a topping ceremony for its Fab 18 Phase 8 facility.

TSMC Holds 3nm Volume Production and Capacity Expansion Ceremony, Marking a Key Milestone for Advanced Manufacturing
 
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MayaUser

macrumors 68040
Nov 22, 2021
3,177
7,196
Reports have N3B in mass production since the end of December 2022...

Apple is the only customer for 3nm wafers right now, so they are obviously stock piling N3B dies for something...

M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme Mac Pros at WWDC 2023 makes sense...
nope, the inside source of Gurman was always n point 100%
So unfortunately no N3 based macs at WWDC
The only way to introduce something like Mac Pro is to present it at WWDC with the release date near Christmas (November-December)
 

Dulcimer

macrumors 6502a
Nov 20, 2012
967
1,148
That latest report suggests MBA 13” will also be updated. But with what if no M3? These rumors really aren’t making sense.

Still confused about N3 productions rumors at TSMC and the logs showing a “Mac15,3” (current M2 Macs are “Mac14,X”, M1 Macs are “Mac13,X”).
 
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Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,413
17,205
Silicon Valley, CA
That latest report suggests MBA 13” will also be updated. But with what if no M3? These rumors really aren’t making sense.

Still confused about N3 productions rumors at TSMC and the logs showing a “Mac15,3” (current M2 Macs are “Mac14,X”, M1 Macs are “Mac13,X”).
Its because all the people badly wanting to see M3 SoCs fail to look at how long it took to get the M2 SoCs out the door, and assume all of this is like a annual update, far from it.

There are literally thousands of comments recognizing that we have no data points to statistically state how often Apple/TSMC will announce new SoC's. As best you can just rely on comments approximating their release dates.
 
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