Could we see M3 before A17?

[JPack]

That latest report suggests MBA 13” will also be updated. But with what if no M3? These rumors really aren’t making sense.

Still confused about N3 productions rumors at TSMC and the logs showing a “Mac15,3” (current M2 Macs are “Mac14,X”, M1 Macs are “Mac13,X”).

Not sure why people are assuming MBA/MBP 13 will be updated soon. All Gurman is saying is they're in the works for launch by early 2024. Of course it will have M3.

Machine codes don't represent the processor. iPhone SE 5G with A15 is iPhone12,8. iPhone 11 is 12,1.

 

[Boil]

• Mac16,1 / ASi Mac Pro
• N3B process / A17 cores
• M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme
• WWDC 2023 / ;^p

 

[senttoschool]

Not sure why people are assuming MBA/MBP 13 will be updated soon. All Gurman is saying is they're in the works for launch by early 2024. Of course it will have M3.

Machine codes don't represent the processor. iPhone SE 5G with A15 is iPhone12,8. iPhone 11 is 12,1.

Probably because Gurman said they will be announced at WWDC. See bolded part below.

Moving on to the Mac, Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024. There are also two Mac Studio follow-ups planned, but their timing is less clear.

At least some of the new laptops will be announced at WWDC, I’ve been told. But there’s a big caveat: The models coming in June probably won’t boast major new M3 chips. Instead, they’ll run something in line with the current M2 processors.

Notice the plurality here.

All the other laptops already have an M2 or newer better chip. So if a laptop gets updated at WWDC, what is it being updated to if it's not M3?

He also never said they won't come with M3 - just that they will probably come with M2. It's likely that Gurman is just speculating on whether it's M2 or M3 like the rest of us. He's just assuming that M3 would have more cores so when he sees 8/10 again, he thinks it's M2.

It wouldn't surprise me if M3 had more cores but again, it makes a lot of sense to me that M3 would have the same number of cores as M2.

M1: New node, new architecture
M2: More cores
M3: New node, new architecture
M4: More cores
M5: New node, new architecture
M6: More cores

 

[dmccloud]

I'd wager that a new Mac Pro and possibly an iMac get announced at WWDC, since those are machines that the developer community would have high interest in. A 15" Air is more of a consumer product, so it could get one of those random drops outside of a major event such as WWDC or the annual iPhone announcement.

 

[senttoschool]

I'd wager that a new Mac Pro and possibly an iMac get announced at WWDC, since those are machines that the developer community would have high interest in. A 15" Air is more of a consumer product, so it could get one of those random drops outside of a major event such as WWDC or the annual iPhone announcement.

In order to announce a Mac Pro, they'd have to make an M3 Max first - unless you think they will use M2 Max.

Also, I'd argue that an iMac is not something developers are interested in.

 

[Realityck]

In order to announce a Mac Pro, they'd have to make an M3 Max first - unless you think they will use M2 Max.

Also, I'd argue that an iMac is not something developers are interested in.

I thought the Mac Pro would use the M2 Ultra, that way the Mac Studio can also get upgraded from M1 Max/M1 Ultra to M2 MAX/M2 Ultra. I see no issues with updating the 2 year old 24" iMac with a M2 Pro for giving it a bit more performance. The 23.5" screen is 500 nits, wide color (P3) and noticeably larger then 16.2" MBP.

 

[senttoschool]

I thought the Mac Pro would use the M2 Ultra, that way the Mac Studio can also get upgraded from M1 Max/M1 Ultra to M2 MAX/M2 Ultra. I see no issues with updating the 2 year old 24" iMac with a M2 Pro for giving it a bit more performance. The 23.5" screen is 500 nits, wide color (P3) and noticeably larger then 16.2" MBP.

It'd just be very boring for Apple to introduce a new Mac Pro with a SoC that's supposed to go inside the Studio.

Developers aren't going to buy an iMac 24" with a M2 Pro SoC. They just won't. Developers often use multiple monitors, prefer to tinker with their setup, and prefer laptops over desktops.

Every developer I know uses a MBP. Some can get away with an Air.

 

[steve123]

Also, I'd argue that an iMac is not something developers are interested in.

Apple was pretty clear last year that the Studio and Studio Display replaced the 27" iMac.

 

[Realityck]

It'd just be very boring for Apple to introduce a new Mac Pro with a SoC that's supposed to go inside the Studio.

Developers aren't going to buy an iMac 24" with a M2 Pro SoC. They just won't. Developers often use multiple monitors, prefer to tinker with their setup, and prefer laptops over desktops.

Every developer I know uses a MBP. Some can get away with an Air.

For you maybe but that redundancy is needed. One product using a custom larger SoC would mean only one product would have to fail for all the trouble of designing a larger SoC for doubling what a Max offers.

The only bad things about dev using a 24" IMac currently is performance and the lack of multiple external monitor support. It can drive one 6K external display. Bumping it to a M2 Pro would allow someone to drive 2 6K display from a very transportable set up to deploy. I am talking about it being useful not from your perspective.

I already use a M1 Max 16", but at times I just like something that is quick and easy to deploy for an all in one.

 

[Realityck]

Apple was pretty clear last year that the Studio and Studio Display replaced the 27" iMac.

Actually they said nothing, it was so cowardly.
IMHO it was to EOL another like intel products for AS transition goals, and substitute a single smaller 24" all-in one instead of large awkward 27" iMac design to ship. During Covid 19 that would cut down large box inventory considerably with product transported from China that they used limited space airlines to other countries, very much strategy survival until the end of 2022. But all of this has nothing to to do with this topic. I still think Apple goals is attained primary by A17 iPhones usage and later M3 SoC used for late this year and next years updates.

 

[MayaUser]

I'd wager that a new Mac Pro and possibly an iMac get announced at WWDC, since those are machines that the developer community would have high interest in. A 15" Air is more of a consumer product, so it could get one of those random drops outside of a major event such as WWDC or the annual iPhone announcement.

imac almost zero chances..
Mac Pro? the only way is to just present it and release it in the fall/winter like they did with some past Mac Pros
So just to be presented at WWDC are 50-50 chances...imac 0, because the imac is not something that you present it at WWDC and release it for the public 4-6months later

 

[iPadified]

Will WWDC keynote be an all day lecture to include a range a new HW as well as new OSs?

 

[Realityck]

Will WWDC keynote be an all day lecture to include a range a new HW as well as new OSs?

I actually think the slightly less then 2 hour keynote will focus a lot more on changes/improvements around the OS's this year. There could be two hardware announcements. Possibilities are AR glasses prototype along with the products OS, AS Mac Pro. Two products that are up in the air because not ideal timing is 15" MBA and 24" iMac update.

 

[Dulcimer]

After multiple reports that 15” MBA will use M2, I think M3 coming out before A17 is pretty much dead. And frankly it makes sense for Apple to just slap an existing cheaper M2 on there considering how expensive N3 is.

While TSMC started production in late 2022, I don’t think the reports (from Digitimes no less, highly unreliable) of wafer quantities was accurate. Likely a very small run (for testing/sampling?).

Until late 2023 or 2024 I guess.

 

[senttoschool]

And frankly it makes sense for Apple to just slap an existing cheaper M2 on there considering how expensive N3 is.

We could very well have an M2 15” MBA but I don’t think the reason is that N3 is too expensive.

The difference is a few dollars per chip at best. I mean, the M2 already goes into a $600 device.

 

[senttoschool]

This is the first TSMC 3nm chip announcement as far as I know:

Company | Newsroom - Marvell Demonstrates Industry’s First 3nm Data Infrastructure Silicon

The 3nm building blocks include high-speed SerDes and parallel interconnects for dramatically boosting the performance of next-generation data infrastructure.

www.marvell.com

Perhaps Apple wasn't the only 3nm customer.

 

[quarkysg]

This is the first TSMC 3nm chip announcement as far as I know:

Company | Newsroom - Marvell Demonstrates Industry’s First 3nm Data Infrastructure Silicon

The 3nm building blocks include high-speed SerDes and parallel interconnects for dramatically boosting the performance of next-generation data infrastructure.

www.marvell.com

Perhaps Apple wasn't the only 3nm customer.

Doesn't look like a mass manufactured part that can be used by their customers right now.

So I think Apple is still the first with TSMC's 3nm.

Apple likely already have 3nm SoC prototypes in their labs 1 year ago.

 

[Xiao_Xi]

According to a transcript, C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC, said during the last TSMC earnings call.

Next, let me talk about our N3 and N3E status. Our 3-nanometer technology is the first in the semiconductor industry to high-volume production with good yield. As our customers' demand for N3 exceeds our ability to supply, we expect N3 to be fully utilized in 2023 supported by both HPC and smartphone applications. Sizable N3 revenue contribution is expected to start in third quarter and N3 will contribute mid-single-digit percentage of our total wafer revenue in 2023. N3 will further extend our N3 family with enhanced performance, power and yield and offer complete platform support for both HPC and smartphone applications.

N3E has passed the qualification and achieve performance and yield targets and volume production is scheduled for second half '23. Despite the ongoing inventory correction, we continue to observe a high level of customer engagement at both N3 and N3E with a number of tape-outs more than 2x that of N5 in the first and second half year -- in the second year, I'm sorry.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Limited (TSM) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Limited (NYSE:TSM) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call April 20, 2023 2:00 AM ETCompany ParticipantsJeff Su - Director,...

seekingalpha.com

Out of curiosity, is it necessary to redesign for N3E the SoCs designed for TSMC N3?

 

[steve123]

Out of curiosity, is it necessary to redesign for N3E the SoCs designed for TSMC N3?

Generally, yes. Any change in process would require verification by the design team and may involve design changes. And then tape out, test and evaluation to qualify the new design and process. Apple probably already has M4 prototypes going through qualification on N3E.

It sounds from C.C. Wei's statement that M3 is in production along with A17. Gonna be a great WWDC and Fall Event I think.

 

[senttoschool]

Doesn't look like a mass manufactured part that can be used by their customers right now.

So I think Apple is still the first with TSMC's 3nm.

Apple likely already have 3nm SoC prototypes in their labs 1 year ago.

I think the key point is that Apple isn't the only

According to a transcript, C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC, said during the last TSMC earnings call.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Limited (TSM) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Limited (NYSE:TSM) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call April 20, 2023 2:00 AM ETCompany ParticipantsJeff Su - Director,...

seekingalpha.com

Out of curiosity, is it necessary to redesign for N3E the SoCs designed for TSMC N3?

Yes. I remember reading that the designs for N3 and N3E are not compatible.

 

[Xiao_Xi]

Yes. I remember reading that the designs for N3 and N3E are not compatible.

Generally, yes. Any change in process would require verification by the design team and may involve design changes. And then tape out, test and evaluation to qualify the new design and process.

If true, wouldn't that mean that Apple should use the same node for A17 and M3? Which node will A17 use?

 

[quarkysg]

I think the key point is that Apple isn't the only

Actually my point is that at this moment, Apple is the only one using N3 for actual products, which is probably a certainty. Others will definitely be using N3 in future, just not now.

I’m certainly not naive enough to claim that Apple will be the only N3 customers. I’m sure TSMC probably have many interested customers for N3 but likely the cost is going to prevent many from using it now. Apple likely have preferential pricing from TSMC.

 

[Pressure]

Actually my point is that at this moment, Apple is the only one using N3 for actual products, which is probably a certainty. Others will definitely be using N3 in future, just not now.

I’m certainly not naive enough to claim that Apple will be the only N3 customers. I’m sure TSMC probably have many interested customers for N3 but likely the cost is going to prevent many from using it now. Apple likely have preferential pricing from TSMC.

Cost isn't what is holding others away from N3 but actual production capacity. Apple have bought all the capacity for N3 at TSMC if rumours are to be believed.

 

[quarkysg]

Cost isn't what is holding others away from N3 but actual production capacity. Apple have bought all the capacity for N3 at TSMC if rumours are to be believed.

Of course. But we can only speculate. What I can be certain of is that N3 is for everyone who pays to use, not just Apple. Apple is only the first, most likely.

 

[senttoschool]

If true, wouldn't that mean that Apple should use the same node for A17 and M3? Which node will A17 use?

That’s right. My whole assumption all along is that Apple would use N3 (not N3E) for both the A17 and M3.