You'll get your phone if you really have a confirmation that early. I had my MacBook, iPad Air 2, and my wife and i's iPhone 6s Plus's on Verizon and it wasn't working until around 3:30am. Even though I was able to place my order around 3:10am. I wasn't able to checkout with errors until almost 3:45 CST. I think everyone who ordered within the first hour of the launch date will have their phones Friday. Still waiting on calls from the homies that work for corporate carrier locations. Originally I was told any black variation wasn't going to ship until 9/28. This is pre orders from a manager and senior rep at Verizon corporate locations in Kansas. They were told they won't see their phones until after 9/28 due to them only having 10 iPhone 7's (not iPhone 7+) arriving before launch date. I just relieved a text from a manager in Kansas and he's still on a conference call from apple. I think everyone who ordered early should be good. As far as JB variations they are scarse. If you got your order in super early you should be alright. But don't count on it. All other colors including matte black should ship and be relieved by launch day. That is if you ordered before the hour past when it went live.
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I've got a 6s+ 128gb and they better give me more than $0 for that bish!! Haven't received any return boxes, was told the shipment would have the return box or envelope in it. If you e received your box already you already know your phone will be there sometime Friday.