I have been reading this forum for the past week and follow every year as I eagerly await whether or not my phone will arrive on release day. Despite the fact that I'm usually more of a lurker, I'm adding my two cents partly as a catharsis and partly to send congratulations to those who are getting their phones tomorrow. I've seen the forum wax and wane between excitement/camaraderie to arguments/harassment as people lose and regain hope. I certainly understand it all and am happy to have a place where folks can share elation and disappointment.
I have not heard any news about my 7+ 256GB Black and have lost hope for a delivery tomorrow. I feel like a kid who opened his Christmas present and found socks.
My hypothesis is that Apple was uncertain whether a phone with a same form-factor would generate any excitement during preorders and erred on the side of caution by producing a limited number of units. What they didn't seem to figure on was that the Apple upgrade program, and similar programs with the carriers, that were implemented last year make it a no-cost event to upgrade this round. As a result, they had to account for people willing to pay flat out in addition to everyone who can upgrade at no extra cost per month. Likewise, carriers like Verizon enticing people to upgrade with $650 for an trade-in adds a whole new pool of people willing to upgrade. This led, for the first time in history, to models being unavailable in stores at launch. Now they have to play catchup for a while.
The same thing happened with the release of the Apple watch. They had a new product, were uncertain whether it would sell, and produced a small amount to start. I ordered the Apple watch I at 12:03 PST and had to wait a month to get it.
I'm sure it's hard to anticipate the best strategy and predict sales, but considering they failed to predict accurately for two launches in the recent past, I think they need to hire some better actuaries.
Well, this is the end of my venting and I feel about 22% better. I am now off to maniacally check whether my card was charged, pray to the deities, and mope.