I have an 11.2.3 Parallels VM, and it won't tell me there's an update to 11.3, likely because the host is running 11.2.3. It's my theory, not researched, that Parallels won't let you upgrade beyond the host OS version.
Sorry to say this, but your theory is wrong. My Parallels Big Sur 11.2.3 virtual machine DID offer me the 11.3 update. All the while, my host operating system is 11.2.3. As I said, the VM update installation failed twice, but that is another issue. My third attempt consisted in downloading the 11.3 installer from the App Store. Then, I fed that installer to Parallels Desktop in order to create a new virtual machine. When that installation froze up, I restarted the new, half-installed virtual machine and the installation completed successfully this time.
In my view, my simple experiment demonstrates at least three things:
1. Contrary to the consensus theory, 11.3 issues are not limited to some legacy hardware, like the Mac Pro 5,1. They also affect, at the very least, "modern" virtual machines.
2. Contrary to the consensus theory, 11.3 issues are not exclusively related to NVMe and/or PCIe components. As far as I can tell, a virtual machine has neither of these.
3. Contrary to another forum member's theory, Parallels Desktop 16.1.2 is capable of running Big Sur 11.3 if a virtual machine is created from scratch.