Review: Two Weeks With the Apple Vision Pro

[turbineseaplane]

Who cares if a celebrity thinks it is?

Just an example.

Map it on to a fashion conscious normal woman and mother, or style conscious modern professional man, CEO, etc

I know a wide variety of such folks. They wouldn’t touch this with a 50’ pole as it currently is designed.

That’s the point I was making.

Please calm down your tone also. It’s feeling a touch aggressive and personal. My apologies if that’s not the intent. It’s hard to read tone sometimes.

 

[Avatar74]

Well, that is about double or more the size of the global video streaming market, which so many companies are clamoring for.

Read the rest of my comment.

 

[Hogswarts]

Read the rest of my comment.

I did. And it's not about who can name the biggest market.

 

[Avatar74]

I did. And it's not about who can name the biggest market.

No, it's about dominating the biggest market... the cost of chasing $15 billion isn't worth it for a company Apple's scale. This is what I do. I wrote my senior thesis on internet distribution of music and I manage teams that build the data architecture and analytics ecosystems for go-to-market, sales, finance.

If Apple Vision captures a similar fraction of the gaming market as iPhone does, they will gain less than $15 billion from it. iPhone by itself is a $200 billion a year product.

Apple will never make a fart in the wind chasing gaming.

 

[Hogswarts]

I don't believe it's a deficiency of "foveated rendering" that's behind the blurriness around the edges when mirroring a Mac display on the AVP. I believe it's the optics when viewing off-axis. Turn your head toward the corners and edges of the virtual Mac display and it's sharp, because head-on viewing is where optics usually perform best and off-axis viewing the worst.

 

[Hogswarts]

No, it's about dominating the biggest market... the cost of chasing $15 billion isn't worth it for a company Apple's scale.

The global smartphone market in 2022 was ~$500B. Is that big enough for you--or for Apple? It apparently pales in comparison to apparel, after all. One's position in one market can also leverage one's position in a related or overlapping market. For instance, gaming and computing.

 

[Avatar74]

The global smartphone market in 2022 was ~$500B. Is that big enough for you--or for Apple? It apparently pales in comparison to apparel, after all. One's position in one market can also leverage one's position in a related market. For instance, gaming and computing.

Except you're comparing Apples and, well, oranges... Apple built the smartphone market before it existed in part by leveraging another ecosystem it had already built (music/entertainment), not by chasing an ecosystem they weren't dominant in (gaming). By 2007, digital downloads were more than a quarter of just US sales, and the CD was in decline, and Apple was already the dominant player in that market.

Apple didn't hire Ron Johnson from Target on a whim... they wanted to build a retail presence. Tim Cook is from supply chain. The pieces are there to directly target Amazon at a point when their online presence is hampered by an un-navigable mess of knockoff, third rate products, and malls are all but dead.

There's more intellectual capital at Apple to topple Amazon. There's no point in wasting time with gaming when even the existing VR market doesn't represent much of gaming... so that $15 billion I cited is even smaller when you consider that's of the TOTAL gaming market, which VR hasn't captured.

VR user penetration is 1.3%... so cut that $15 billion to $195 million, which Apple makes in five hours. The development costs of the MR ecosystem are larger than what VR pulls in from gaming in a year across ALL manufacturers and software distributors.

There's a concept called Total Addressable Market... that $15 billion represents TAM. The total POSSIBLE market Apple could capture given the projected share of the $280 billion market they could plausibly convert. If the most they stand to gain is $15 billion if every single gamer on the planet goes to VR (which is not happening, ever), that's pathetic.

If the entire world market for VR gaming is $3.64 billion (1.3% of $280 billion) that tells you something about the prospects since VR has been around for a decade. In ten years, downloading/streaming grew from 0 to two thirds of the music market.

 

[Surf Monkey]

No the biggest is comfort. If all you get is eye strain and facial discomfort then the above doesn’t really matter.

I mean, that kinda goes without saying. We already know the Vision is too big and clunky.

 

[lk400]

Ha ha we finally know the use case for this thing and it’s to write more about it. It exists for its own sake, and nothing else.

Kind of like all those YouTube channels that make videos about the equipment they use to make videos.

 

[Hogswarts]

IMHO Spatial Videos shot on iPhone 15 Pro when viewed in immersive mode are comparable in their impact to videos captured with the AVP.
What blew me away was the many panoramas I've shot, going back to 2011. Despite the lack of 3D perspective, viewing these panoramas in immersive mode is incredible! I had been starting to feel panoramas weren't worth the bother, but going forward, I expect to shoot more of them than ever because of how great they look on the AVP.

 

[lk400]

It's a joke- see that wink at the end. I'm poking at the extreme pessimism being so extreme that they can't just expect 100% returns but 110% returns because 100% would not be enough to support the contempt some feel for this thing... and make sure the rest of us know that in every Vpro thread.

All entitled to their own opinion of course but I just don't grasp the waste of time & energy some put into a product discussion they very obviously have no interest in trying or ever buying.

I happen to have no interest in Watch. You won't find many of my thousands of posts since 2004 in Watch threads. I'd rather focus my learning and/or insights I might offer on products in which I AM interested than where I am not. But again, to each their own.

I also found the joke a bit hard to follow. I suppose I’m a literal person and don’t really get cynicism or sarcasm so easily.

I agree with your premise. But I think this is what people do and have always done. Treating tech companies like football teams and commenting as such.

I do have an interest in this product, and have made one or two posts on it. Basically neutral at the moment.

I will post that I find the whole buying to try and returning thing very strange. It’s not common (or even really possible) in my country. You decide, buy, and return if somethings wrong. If you simply made a bad decision, that’s on you.

Anyway, have a good weekend.

 

[lovehateapple]

Features I'm holding out for before buying: ability to watch 360° video I've shot with my Insta360 camera on AVP, ability to watch 360° videos on YT, ability to watch and availability of NFL, NHL, MLB, PGA Tour, & LPGA Tour events as well as concerts in 360° 3D. Ability to share what I'm watching with other family members and friends who also have an AVP. I'm very excited about the potential of the device going forward.

 

[Hogswarts]

Apple will never make a fart in the wind chasing gaming.

It needn't. But let's consider how much better a game can look on the AVP than on the competition. In this nascent space, Apple has a chance to dominate. We have 2 competing factors at work though: early mover with seductive hardware weighed against a much higher price. How this pans out, we'll see.

 

[Avatar74]

It needn't.

Right. They don't need to go after gaming at all... and I don't think they should, when clearly, VR isn't gaining any meaningful share of it because the hardcore gamers are still PC gamers.

Apple won't please shareholders by spending more money than there is to be made in VR gaming on going after VR gaming. Apple's biggest shareholder is, in fact, led by the guy who coined the "elephant gun" analogy.... Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway.

In 100 years people will still buy actual clothes, not virtual clothes... just like they will still buy real chewing gum, not virtual chewing gum. This is why nobody gets VR right because they're trying to get everyone to move to the metaverse, instead of the other way around. Gaming is just another extension of that. The majority of people will never sit in one place for 16 hours a day like gamers will.

Global retail as a whole, beyond apparel, is trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. It's the backbone of global commerce. The only thing that's changing is how and where people buy... and that's where Apple has an enormous opportunity to introduce the killer app to end all killer apps: iBuy.

Everybody shops.

 

[Surf Monkey]

As relevant as your point regarding whether or not a celebrity thinks its fashionable.

Who cares if a celebrity thinks it is? How would you even know anyway? Its not like the Vision Pro is meant to be worn around in public as a fashion accessory. Its a device people use at home or when traveling on a plane if they want.

You see a lot of celebrities walking around in other VR headsets? Doesn't mean they don't own one.

You completely and utterly missed the point he was making by being slavishly literal about his post.

 

[toobravetosave]

I think one of the so called "killer apps" or "app types" for this could be mental health related.

For anxiety i'm sure you could immerse someone in a calming world - on the other hand i'm sure you can trick someone into believing they're somewhere they're not, just using that fight or flight mechanism for people with agoraphobia etc to experience being somewhere else.

Also balance training seems possible in here. I have an issue where somehow my brain uses my eyes to balance rather than my inner ear and it's possible to retrain this (though it's hard and uncomfortable) i'm sure it'd be possible in the headset somehow.

Having only used a Meta 2 which isn't all that convincing you could still trick yourself into thinking you're in a room full of people or a place somewhere other than you are and with a device where the image is this sharp in comparison this impact can only be 10x stronger in the AVP. To allow people to calm down during travelling, to allow them to escape during strong anxiety - or to test their resolve by having them do tasks that trigger anxiety.

be careful what you wish for. maybe social energy should just fix the world around us instead of replacing it with goggles as it burns

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

I WISH we were able to see the return numbers for this thing.

Why? The returns are very low

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

Got to demo it today at Apple. Honestly the only element that really impressed me was footage from a soccer and baseball game. I see the potential overall, but it is still way too early for most people to get excited for what it currently offers.

Yes but most people are getting excited

 

[doelcm82]

I always thought this was a bad bet. The technology is just not there yet. Apple spent a lot of effort on this and this is going to died in 2 years time, just like google glasses did. Meanwhile they are years behind in AI and are going to struggle to get near what other companies are doing. This is the kind of vision Tim lacks that Steve had.

Steve gave us Ping.

 

[ryanmp]

IMHO Spatial Videos shot on iPhone 15 Pro when viewed in immersive mode are comparable in their impact to videos captured with the AVP.
What blew me away was the many panoramas I've shot, going back to 2011. Despite the lack of 3D perspective, viewing these panoramas in immersive mode is incredible! I had been starting to feel panoramas weren't worth the bother, but going forward, I expect to shoot more of them than ever because of how great they look on the AVP.

Completely agree, I’ve got so many older panoramas that I never really looked at. They are just incredible in AVP. I actually sometimes prefer them to spatial photos.

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

Practically everyone works an hour or so on their laptop/monitor etc then take a break. Same principle for the AVP. You take the same necessary breaks.

 

[d5aqoëp]

I talked about AVP with my brother who is an ophthalmologist and an eye surgeon. He is in the field for more than 20 years. His personal opinion is not to use any screen which is “That” close to your eyes as AVP is. He is also surprised at the radio silence of Medical Community over the effects of prolonged use of AVP on eyes and mental well being.

Personally, I am curious about effects on eyes after The Verge writer popped a blood vessel in his eye after prolonged AVP use. In his twitter X thread, several people have complained of the same issue.

 

[DMG35]

You completely and utterly missed the point he was making by being slavishly literal about his post.

The point he was making is that the VP needs to improve the form factor before someone like a celebrity would wear it around. What’s the point being missed? I don’t care enough anyway so respond with whatever you wish.

 

[G5isAlive]

I talked about AVP with my brother who is an ophthalmologist and an eye surgeon. He is in the field for more than 20 years. His personal opinion is not to use any screen which is “That” close to your eyes as AVP is. He is also surprised at the radio silence of Medical Community over the effects of prolonged use of AVP on eyes and mental well being.

Personally, I am curious about effects on eyes after some The Verge writer popped a blood vessel in his eye after prolonged AVP use. In his twitter X thread, Several people have complained of the same issue.

Did you ask your brother about the Meta Quests? Why would the Medical community chose NOW to make a comment about a product that has sold relatively few units compared to the millions of Meta Quests sold?

 

[dolphinspirit]

Yes, pros and cons. Yes, it's a beta version. And I love it. Each day I learn more and more about how it fits into my life with extraordinary immersion. It took a week to figure out the best way to adjust the dual straps so I have a fit with almost no discomfort. I am enjoying being part of the future today. Sure, it's expensive. Sure, the hardware and software will improve over time. Yet, that's all in the future - and I want to experience this new world today.